Permanent Tsb Group Holdings Plc · EURONEXT:PTSB
Permanent Tsb — Investor Presentation (January 2006)
26 slides from Permanent Tsb's investor presentation, January 2006
Slide 1: permanent tsb House Price Index 2005 Review
permanent tsb House Price Index 2005 Review
Slide 2: Key findings
2 House Price Index Key findings National house prices in 2005 grew by 9.3%, slightly up on growth rate of 8.6% in 2004. Price growth nationally in the 2nd half of 2005 (6.7%) was at more than twice the rate as in the first six months (2.5%). Price growth for FTBs (12.7%) in 2005 was almost 3.
Slide 3: Agenda
3 House Price Index Agenda National Regional New and Existing First-time Buyers and Second-time Buyers
Slide 4: Annual House Price Growth 1997 - 2005
4 House Price Index Annual House Price Growth 1997 - 2005 Annual growth in 2005 similar to levels in 2004. N a tio n a l D u b lin O u ts id e D u b lin 2 0 0 5 9 .3 % 1 0 .1 % 9 .2 % 2 0 0 4 8 .6 % 8 .9 % 8 .0 % 2 0 0 3 1 3 .8 % 1 2 .7 % 1 3 .0 % 2 0 0 2 1 3 .3 % 1 5 .9 % 1 2 .5 % 2 0 0 1 4 .5 % 4
Slide 5: National House Prices
5 House Price Index National House Prices Majority of growth concentrated in the 2nd half of last year. 10.6% 11.0% 9.7% 7.3% 8.0% 6.9% 6.4% 6.7% 5.5% 4.9% 4.7% 5.0% 3.7% 2.5% 2.0% -0.4% -1.0% Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05
Slide 6: 1996-2005 House Price Distribution
6 House Price Index 1996-2005 House Price Distribution Changed significantly over the last 9 years 97% 100% 1996 2005 80% 60% 44% 41% 40% 11% 20% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% < €150k €150-€250k €250-€400k €400k+
Slide 7: Dublin, Outside Dublin & Commuter counties
7 Dublin, Outside Dublin & Commuter counties House Price Index Annual price growth rates for Dublin, outside Dublin & Commuter counties moving in relatively close alignment in 2005 19% Outside Dublin Dublin Commuter 14% 9% Dec '03 Dec '04 Dec '05 Dublin 12.7% 8.9% 10.1% 4% Outside Dublin 13.0% 8.0%
Slide 8: National & Regional Price Trends - gap between Dublin and others
8 House Price Index National & Regional Price Trends - gap between Dublin and others continues to widen 400 369 Dublin 335 350 Commuter 307 299 300 National 273 271 256 278 Outside Dublin 250 223 254 234 240 200 206 220 204 180 150 92 100 82 Figures in €'000s 80 74 December prices 50 1996 1997 1998
Slide 9: Regional House Prices - Growth since 1996
Regional House Prices - Growth since 1996 9 House Price Index Dublin, Mideast & SW continue to outstrip National growth, and the order is also unchanged for the other regions 319% 325% 300% 274% 275% 267% 255% 250% 230% 238% 219% 225% 211% 200% 189% 175% t l nd r lin st N SE SW id t na es de es ea u
Slide 10: Regional House Prices - Annual Growth
Regional House Prices - Annual Growth 10 House Price Index Most regions growing in line with national levels with Border area the most notable exception 15% 10% 9% 9% 10% 8% 8% 8% 6% 5% 5% 3% 0% t l nd lin r st SE SW M st na es de ea e ub la io w W or id id id at D B M M N
Slide 11: County Average Price Trends
11 House Price Index County Average Price Trends Growth Growth '03-'04 2004 € '04-'05 2005 € Dublin* 9% 334,822 10% 368,576 Wicklow 9% 313,547 11% 347,158 Kildare 10% 289,306 6% 307,589 Cork City 13% 276,267 11% 306,117 Meath 12% 269,606 10% 296,508 Galway 11% 267,920 7% 286,478 Cork County 16% 252,
Slide 12: Top & Bottom Counties by 2005 growth rate
12 House Price Index Top & Bottom 3 Counties by 2005 growth rate Growth Growth '03-'04 2004 € '04-'05 2005 € Kerry 15% 220,484 15% 253,673 Cavan 14% 206,993 14% 236,749 Kilkenny 9% 228,282 14% 260,992 Sligo 10% 231,582 4% 241,217 Donegal 16% 199,973 3% 205,155 Leitrim 9% 196,800 2% 199,827
Slide 13: Existing versus new houses
13 House Price Index Existing versus new houses Annual % growth in new and existing house prices following the national trend. 20% Dec '03 Dec '04 Dec '05 New 10.8% 12.4% 9.9% Existing 14.4% 8.7% 8.2% 15% 10% New Houses Existing Houses 5% 0% Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 De
Slide 14: First versus second time buyers
First versus second time buyers 14 House Price Index FTB growth rates have been ahead of rates nationally since April 2005 and ended 2005 3.5% & 4.5% up on national and STB levels respectively. 20% FTB STB 15% 10% Dec '03 Dec '04 Dec '05 FTB 14.7% 7.9% 12.7% 5% STB 13.4% 9.0% 8.3% 0% Dec-01 Jun-02 D
Slide 15: Demand Outlook
15 House Price Index Demand Outlook
Slide 16: Average GNP Growth - Source ESRI
16 House Price Index Average GNP Growth - Source ESRI 9 8 7 6 5 % 4 3 2 1 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 -7 -8 -8 -9 -9 -0 -0 -1 -1 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 High Growth
Slide 17: Housing Demand Components
17 House Price Index Housing Demand Components Source ESRI High Growth 100 80 Thousand 60 40 20 0 1991-1996 1997-2002 2003-06 2007-10 2011-15 Population Growth Change in Headship Obsolescense Second dwellings Migration
Slide 18: Unemployment Rate - Source ESRI
18 House Price Index Unemployment Rate - Source ESRI 16 14 12 10 % 8 6 4 2 0 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Slide 19: Personal Disposable Income Growth - Source ESRI
19 House Price Index Personal Disposable Income Growth - Source ESRI 25 20 15 % 10 5 0 1970- 1975- 1980- 1985- 1990- 1995- 2000- 2005- 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10
Slide 20: Summary
House Price Index Summary age permanent tsb
Slide 21: Summary & Conclusions
21 House Price Index Summary & Conclusions National house price growth in 2005 higher than anticipated at 9.3%. With a record number of house completions price rise for FTBs seems surprisingly strong though a switch by FTBs to existing house purchase, high % of completions concentrated in urban/
Slide 22: Appendices
22 House Price Index Appendices
Slide 23: House Completions
23 House Price Index Housing completions continue to set new records Source: Department of the Environment (DOE) HOUSE COMPLETIONS 90,000 80,957 76,954 80,000 68,819 70,000 57,695 60,000 52,602 46,512 49,812 50,000 42,349 38,842 40,000 33,700 30,000 96 98 00 03 05 97 99 01 02 04 19 19 20 20 20 20 20
Slide 24: Housing completions by county
Almost 40,000 or 50%of housing completions in 2005 were in 24 House Price Index Cork, Dublin & Commuter counties, up from 2004 levels Source: DOE 18,019 20,000 18,000 16,000 2004 14,000 8,842 12,000 2005 10,000 8,000 3,584 6,000 3,886 4,000 2,195 2,341 2,000 - RK IN E R TH BL TH O A W C D U U A IL L
Slide 25: Age range split of Ireland's 4.04m population
Population - almost 50%(1.8m) of the pop. aged < 30. Net 25 House Price Index inward migration accounted for almost half of 65,000 total pop. growth to April 2004 (Source CSO). Age range split of Ireland's 4.04m population 18% 17% 16% 15% 15% 14% 14% 13% 14% 12% 11% 10% (0-10) (10-20) (20-30) (30-40
Slide 26: Regional Listing
26 House Price Index REGIONAL LISTING BORDER - Cavan; Donegal; Leitrim; Louth; Monaghan; Sligo. MIDEAST - Kildare; Meath; Wicklow. MIDLANDS - Laois; Longford; Offaly; Westmeath. MIDWEST - Clare; Limerick; Tipperary North. SOUTH EAST - Carlow; Kilkenny; Wexford; Waterford; Tipperary South.