Aygaz Anonim Sirketi · BIST:AYGAZ
Aygaz Anonim Sirketi — Aygaz — Investor Presentation (February 2019)
43 slides from Aygaz Anonim Sirketi's investor presentation, Feb 18, 2019
Slide 1: Investor Presentation February 2019
INVESTOR PRESENTATION February 2019
Slide 2: Content
CONTENT A- Overview G- Other participations B- World LPG market H- Financial highlights C- Turkish LPG market & Aygaz I- Appendix D- The LPG value chain J- Glossary E- Participation portfolio K- Disclaimer F- Natural gas L- Contacts
Slide 3: Aygaz overview
3 A Aygaz overview 2018 9.6 billion REVENUE 2 m tons SALES OF LPG LEADING 26%* LPG MARKET SHARE LPG DISTRIBUTOR of TURKEY NATURAL GAS REFINERY DIVERSIFIED PARTICIPATION PORTFOLIO IN ENERGY *EMRA December POWER GENERATION
Slide 4: Overview
4 > Overview SUMMARY FINANCIALS (Cons. in m TL) 2018 2017 2016 2018-2017 change Revenue 9,554 8,469 6,749 13% EBITDA 160 352 394 -55% Net Profit 228 577 416 -60% EBITDA Margin 2% 4% 6% -2 Net Profit Margin 2% 7% 6% -5 Volume (000 tons) 2,000 2,154 2,109 -7% SHAREHOLDERS (%) As of 31/12/2018 PUBLICLY
Slide 5: Core business - LPG distribution
5 > Core business - LPG distribution Generic brand for LPG 11th largest industrial company of Turkey, as of 2017 Most preferred LPG brand in Turkey since its foundation Market leader with 3 brands AYGAZ VOLUMES (000 tons) MARKET SHARES (%) 42 35 72 47 54 933 1.025 865 707 907 42 22 777 792 759 688 7
Slide 6: World LPG market
6 B World LPG market WORLD LPG CONSUMPTION (m tons) 2017 303 2016 298 Fastest - growing energy source after 2015 285 2014 275 renewable energy 2013 268 300 billion USD business size worldwide 2012 257 2011 256 Sources of LPG production; 2010 249 2009 240 61% 39% 2008 240 NATURAL GAS CRUDE OIL 2007 2
Slide 7: World LPG consumption
7 > World LPG consumption World LPG Consumption World LPG Consumption By Sectors 2017 (%) By Regions 2017 (%) 44 43 Domestic Asia Pasific 1 28 4 15 Agriculture Chemical Africa North America 10 17 8 10 S.&C. America Europe&Eurasia Refinery Industry 9 11 Autogas Middle East WLPGA Statistical Review of
Slide 8: Prices of LPG and brent
8 > Prices of LPG and brent 140 1.200 113 1.100 120 108 1.000 100 900 977 894 800 $/Barrel 79 $/Ton 80 69 700 600 60 48 56 58 500 32 599 40 536 400 368 421 378 300 321 200 20 JAN 13 JUN 13 NOV 13 APR 14 SEP 14 FEB 15 JUL 15 DEC 15 MAY 16 OCT 16 MAY 17 AUG 17 JAN 18 JUN 17 NOV 18 SP (Algeria) Crude o
Slide 9: Turkish LPG market
9 C Turkish LPG market LPG consumption in Europe (m ton) 4.1 m tons #2 in Europe #11* in the World RUSSIA 4.5 ~90 distribution companies TURKEY 4.1 Leading 3 players in the cylinder market and first 8 players in the autogas market hold over 80% of the total market ITALY 3.4 Liberal market with regul
Slide 10: LPG market ranking
10 > LPG market ranking 1- ITALY 1.4 m tons 2- SPAIN 1.3 m tons 3- FRANCE 1.1 m tons 4- RUSSIA 1.1 m tons 5- TURKEY 0.8 m tons THE 5th BIGGEST DOMESTIC LPG MARKET IN EUROPE 1- SOUTH KOREA 3.3 m tons 2- TURKEY 3.1 m tons 3- RUSSIA 3.1 m tons 4- POLAND 1.9 m tons 5- ITALY 1.7 m tons THE 2nd BIGGEST AU
Slide 11: Slide 11
Slide 12: Cylinder market starting to stabilize
12 > Cylinder market starting to stabilize CYLINDER MARKET RATES OF CHANGE (YoY) Turkish 4% market 801 816 821 812 2% 750 0 (000 tons) -2% -4% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 -6% Aygaz 342 343 342 335 -8% 315 -10% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TURKISH MARKET AYGAZ With the effects of the on-going natural gas co
Slide 13: Aygaz; leader in cylinder market since its foundation
13 > Aygaz; leader in cylinder market since its foundation CYLINDER MARKET SHARES Generic brand Market maker AYGAZ 41.9% Largest dealer network with high SHV 29.5% sales efficiency Demirören Group 17.5% 60% market share in residential use Fully integrated production cycle; Cylinder Other 11.1% and g
Slide 14: Slide 14
Slide 15: World's second biggest autogas market
15 > World’s second biggest autogas market RATES OF CHANGE (YoY) 14% AUTOGAS MARKET 12% 3,283 10% 3,142 3,117 8% Turkish 3,069 2,838 6% market 4% (000 tons) 2% 792 0 777 759 730 -2% Aygaz 688 -4% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 TURKISH MARKET AYGAZ Autogas market that showed a stea
Slide 16: Price economy of autogas
16 > Price economy of autogas 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 -10% -20% price advantage -30% to gasoline JAN-14 APR-14 JULY-14 OCT-14 JAN-15 APR-15 JULY-15 OCT-15 JAN-16 APR-16 JULY-16 OCT-16 JAN-17 APR-17 JULY-17 OCT-17 JAN-18 APR-18 JULY-18 OCT-18 To gasoline To diesel PUMP PRICE OF AUTOGAS ACROSS THE WORLD
Slide 17: Autogas; most widely-used passenger car fuel of Turkey
17 > Autogas; most widely-used passenger car fuel of Turkey RATIO OF CARS REGISTERED TO TURKISH CAR PARK (m cars) TRAFFIC ACC. TO FUEL TYPE 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.8 4.6 4.3 37% 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 75% 5% 2.9 2.9 38% 2.9 15% 25% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2004* 2018 GASOLINE DIESEL AUTOGAS GASOLINE DIESEL A
Slide 18: Aygaz; leader of the second biggest autogas market in the world
18 > Aygaz; leader of the second biggest autogas market in the world AUTOGAS MARKET SHARES MARKET SHARE & STATION NUMBER SHARE (%) 22.3 MARKET SHARE AYGAZ 22.2% STATION NUMBER SHARE OMV PO 12.1% 16 13 12.1 SHELL 11.7% 11.7 10.5 9 9 DEMİRÖREN GROUP* 10.5% 8 6.9 6.8 5 5.1 4 4 BP 6.9% 2.8 SHV GROUP** 6
Slide 19: Autogas car park growth
19 > Autogas car park growth 1,000+ conversion points 177,000 OEM; original equipment $500 average cost of conversion manufacturer conversions Payback in 15,000 km • Some major car manufacturers per year are providing guaranteed conversion currently AUTOGAS CONVERSIONS (m cars) 12 12.4 9.9 10.6 11.3
Slide 20: The LPG value chain
20 D The LPG value ~200 1,718 auto gas stations tankers chain 1,000,000 vehicles using Aygaz Otogaz Moving&floating Fixed storage storage capacity capacity of AUTOGAS of 37,000 m3 178,400 m3 ~2,500 BULK bulk gas customers 3 LPG ships CYLINDER belonging to 2 million the fleet of tons of LPG Anadoluhi
Slide 21: Competitive Supply Chain
21 > Competitive Supply Chain BIG PLAYER ADVANCED MODEL #1 purchaser in Mediterranean Direct imports to 5 different locations #1 importer in Turkey Most diversified supply portfolio in Turkey Diversified supplier & origins #1 exporter in Turkey Diversified supply pattern (ex-refinery, FOB, CIF) #1 s
Slide 22: Slide 22
Slide 23: Participation Portfolio
23 E Participation Portfolio Aygaz Doğalgaz Anadoluhisarı 100% 100% EYAŞ* Akpa 20% 100% Entek Opet-Aygaz 50% Gayrimenkul 50% *EYAŞ owns 51% of the shares of TÜPRAŞ Financial Investments: Koç Finansal Hizmetler A.Ş. (1.97%), Ram Dış Ticaret A.Ş (2.5%), Tanı Pazarlama ve İletişim Hizmetleri A.Ş. (10%)
Slide 24: Natural gas
24 F Natural gas LNG SALES Transportation 13% market share, 2018 sales: and regasification 300 industrial 77 mcm customers SALES VOLUME (mcm) PIPELINE NATURAL GAS SALES 1,279 1,103 Started in 2018 sales: 961 2010 827 mcm 837 827 PROJECTS LNG & Pipeline gas import 94 92 100 105 77 2014 2015 2016 2017
Slide 25: Other participations
25 G Other participations POWER GENERATION SALES AND MARKETING Direct sale of cylinder gas and carboy TOTAL INSTALLED CAPACITY: 422 MW water throughout Turkey İzmit Natural Gas Fuel trade at its fuel stations Combined Cycle (NGCC): 157 MW 8 Hydro Assets: (HEPP): 265 MW STRATEGY OPET AYGAZ GAYRİMENKU
Slide 26: Aygaz key takeaways
26 > Aygaz key takeaways Consistent Brand Long-term Diversifier & Market Power Strategy Portfolio Leader Builder Investor Strong Sales & Financial Logistics Network Strength STRATEGIC PRIORITIES Sustain its market leadership in LPG by; • Investing in the future with the responsibility of being the i
Slide 27: Shareholder value
27 > Shareholder value BIST Code AYGAZ STRENGTHS Bloomberg Code AYGAZ.TI Sustainable operating profitability from core business; LPG Resistant to economic fluctuations and crises Reuters Code AYGAZ.IS Regular dividend payments IPO Date 13.01.1988 Corporate governance practices at international stand
Slide 28: Financial highlights
28 H Financial highlights REVENUE (m TL) 9,554 8,469 7,061 6,420 6,749 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Revenue figure fluctuations are mainly due to; • FX rate changes • Commodity price changes
Slide 29: Financial highlights
29 > Financial highlights GROSS PROFIT AND GPM EBITDA AND EBITDA MARGIN 12% 11% 9% 6% 7% 7% 5% 4% 787 3% 2% 677 741 337 394 527 634 352 188 160 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GROSS PROFIT GROSS PROFIT MARGIN EBITDA EBITDA MARGIN NET PROFIT AND NPM PROFIT MARGINS 7% 12% 7% 6% 10% 8
Slide 30: Financial highlights
30 > Financial highlights NET CASH (m TL) WORKING CAPITAL (m TL) 324 -63 186 183 348 -204 2016 110 182 297 187 577 230 228 -263 483 475 440 -380 390 2014 2015 -319 -372 -471 -670 -560 2017 -753 2014 2015 2016 2018 2017 TRADE PAYABLES TRADE RECEIVABLES INVENTORY WORKING CAPITAL 2018 CURRENT RATIO RET
Slide 31: Financial highlights
31 > Financial highlights DEBT PROFILE AS OF 31/12/2018 (m TL) 12M 2018 12M 2017 ST Borrowings 79 85 TL TL Bond; Current portion of LT Borrowings 492 305 Loan; 16% LT Borrowings 830 583 69% Total Debt 1,401 973 FX Cash and cash equivalents (-) (648) (593) Loan; 15% = Net Debt 753 380 ST: Short-term
Slide 32: Appendix
32 I Appendix
Slide 33: Income statement summary
33 1 Income statement summary (m TL) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Revenue 7,061 6,420 6,749 8,469 9,554 COGS (6,534) (5,743) (5,962) (7,728) (8,920) Gross Profit 527 677 787 741 634 Operating Profit 104 250 308 265 71 Profit Before Tax 237 458 469 621 250 Net Profit 218 418 416 577 228 EBITDA 188 337 39
Slide 34: Balance sheet summary
34 2 Balance sheet summary (m TL) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Cash & Cash Eq. 161 289 568 593 648 Trade Receivables 390 483 475 577 440 Inventories 110 186 183 324 348 Inv. Acc. Under Equity Method 1,677 1,867 1,922 2,273 2,305 Prop. Plant & Eq. 585 651 658 678 687 Financial Debt (365) (551) (630) (973
Slide 35: 2018 Q4 income statement summary
35 3 2018 Q4 income statement summary FINANCIAL QUARTERLY I (Yoy) Revenue 2,363 Milyon TL Operating profit -129 Milyon TL EBITDA -106 Milyon TL Net profit -87 Milyon TL
Slide 36: Highlights
36 > Highlights • As communicated to our subsidiary Aygaz Doğalgaz Toptan Satış A.Ş.(ADG) by Akfel Gaz Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş. (Akfel), from which natural gas is suplied; the price revision arbitration process initiated by Gazprom Export LLC, which Akfel has imported natural gas, was concluded agains
Slide 37: 2018 Q4 Aygaz LPG sales
37 4 2018 Q4 Aygaz LPG sales 514 550 514 489 (000 tons) 236 446 262 229 236 BULK 206 OTHER 214 168 191 166 159 AUTOGAS 8 12 12 14 10 77 74 82 87 71 CYLINDER Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2017 2018 Q4 sales volumes were realized as; • 159 thousand tons in Autogas (-5% YoY) • 71 thousand tons in Cylinder Gas (-8% Yo
Slide 38: Highlights
38 5 Highlights OPERATIONAL - 12 Months cumulative According to 12M 2017 Domestic LPG sales 1,092 Thousand tons -3% YoY International and wholesale LPG sales 907 Thousand tons -11% YoY Total LPG sales 2,000 Thousand tons -7% YoY • Cylinder sales are 315 thousand tons (-6% YoY) • Autogas sales are 73
Slide 39: Market shares
39 6 Market shares CYLINDER AUTOGAS 42% As of December 2018 EMRA report, Aygaz cylinder and autogas market shares are 41% 22% 42% and 22% respectively. 24% (41% and 24% in December 2017) December 2018 December 2017 According to 2018 EMRA report, Turkish 750,284 cylinder sales volume is 750,284 tons
Slide 40: Forward looking statements for 2019
40 7 Forward looking statements for 2019 • Cylinder: 295 - 310 thousand tons SALES VOLUME • Autogas: 695 - 735 thousand tons • Cylinder: 41.5% - 43.5% MARKET SHARE • Autogas: 21.4% - 22.6%
Slide 41: Glossary
41 J Glossary LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas EMRA Energy Market Regulatory Authority WLPGA World LPG Association SP Sonatrach Price PETDER Petroleum Industry Association FOB Free On Board CIF Cost, Insurance & Freight Med Mediterranean VLGC Very Large Gas Carrier EYAŞ Enerji Yatırımları A.Ş. LNG Liquid Na
Slide 42: Disclaimer
42 K Disclaimer This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that reflect the company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variabl
Slide 43: Contacts
43 L Contacts investor@aygaz.com.tr ferda.erginoglu@aygaz.com.tr Ferda Erginoğlu, CFO +90 212 354 1764 sebnem.yucel@aygaz.com.tr Şebnem Yücel, Finance Manager +90 212 354 1510 selin.sanver@aygaz.com.tr Selin Sanver, Investor Relations Manager +90 212 354 1659 www.aygaz.com.tr