Aygaz Anonim Sirketi · BIST:AYGAZ
Aygaz Anonim Sirketi — Aygaz — Investor Presentation (November 2017)
45 slides from Aygaz Anonim Sirketi's investor presentation, Nov 16, 2017
Slide 1: Investor Presentation September 2017
INVESTOR PRESENTATION September 2017
Slide 2: Content
CONTENT A- Overview G- Other participations B- World LPG market H- Financial highlights C- Turkish LPG market & Aygaz I- Appendix D- The LPG value chain J- Glossary E- Participation portfolio K- Disclaimer F- Natural gas L- Contacts
Slide 3: Aygaz overview
3 A Aygaz overview 2016 6.7 billion REVENUE 2.1 m tons SALES LEADING 29% LPG MARKET SHARE LPG DISTRIBUTOR of TURKEY NATURAL GAS REFINERY DIVERSIFIED PARTICIPATION PORTFOLIO IN ENERGY POWER GENERATION
Slide 4: Overview
4 > Overview SUMMARY FINANCIALS (Cons. in m TL) 2016 2015 2014 2016-2015 Change Revenue 6,749 6,420 7,061 5% EBITDA 394 337 188 17% Net Profit 416 418 218 -0.6% EBITDA Margin 6% 5% 3% +1 Net Profit Margin 6% 7% 3% -1 Volume (000 tons) 2,109 2,057 1,791 3% SHAREHOLDERS (%) As of 30/09/2017 PUBLICLY T
Slide 5: Core business - LPG distribution
5 > Core business - LPG distribution Generic brand for LPG 14th largest industrial company of Turkey, as of 2016 with 55 years of history Most preferred LPG brand in Turkey since its foundation Market leader with 3 brands MARKET SHARES (%) AYGAZ VOLUMES (000 tons) 42 72 60 37 933 46 865 668 589 707
Slide 6: World LPG market
6 B World LPG market WORLD LPG CONSUMPTION (m tons) 2016 298 2015 285 Fastest growing energy source after 2014 275 268 renewable energy 2013 2012 257 300 billion USD business size worldwide 2011 256 2010 249 Sources of LPG production; 2009 240 2008 240 62% 38% 2007 236 NATURAL GAS CRUDE OIL 2006 227
Slide 7: World LPG consumption
7 > World LPG consumption World LPG Consumption World LPG Consumption By Sector 2016 (%) By Region 2016 (%) 44 41 Domestic Asia Pasific 1 28 4 17 Agriculture Chemical Africa North America 10 17 8 10 S.&C. America Europe&Eurasia Refinery Industry 9 11 Autogas Middle East WLPGA Statistical Review of G
Slide 8: LPG price versus Brent
8 > LPG price versus brent 140 1.200 113 1.100 120 108 1.000 100 900 894 977 800 80 700 $/Barrel $/Ton 55 600 60 56 500 48 32 400 40 421 475 368 321 300 20 200 JAN 13 MAY 13 SEPT 13 JAN 14 MAY 14 SEPT 14 JAN 15 MAY 15 SEPT 15 JAN 16 MAY 16 SEPT 16 JAN 17 MAY 17 SEPT 17 SP (Algeria) Petroleum (Brent)
Slide 9: Turkish LPG market
9 C Turkish LPG market EUROPE (m ton) 4.1 m tons #2* in Europe #11 in the World RUSSIA 4.7 ~80 distribution companies TURKEY 4.1 Leading 3 players in the cylinder market and first 8 players in the autogas market hold over 80% of the total market ITALY 3.2 Serving; • 7.5 m houses • 4.4 m cars POLAND
Slide 10: Turkish LPG market ranking
10 > Turkish LPG market ranking 1- ITALY 1.3 m tons 2- SPAIN 1.2 m tons 3- RUSSIA 1.1 m tons 4- FRANCE 1.0 m tons 5- TURKEY 0.8 m tons TURKEY IS THE 5th BIGGEST DOMESTIC LPG MARKET IN EUROPE 1- SOUTH KOREA 3.5 m tons 2- TURKEY 3.1 m tons 3- RUSSIA 3.0 m tons 4- POLAND 1.8 m tons 5- ITALY 1.7 m tons
Slide 11: Slide 11
Slide 12: Cylinder market starting to stabilize
12 > Cylinder market starting to stabilize CYLINDER MARKET CYLINDER YoY CHANGES Turkish 4% market 2% 890 842 0 801 816 821 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -2% (000 tons) -4% -6% Aygaz 382 359 342 343 -8% 342 -10% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TURKISH MARKET AYGAZ Growth continued in 2016 after 2015, after 15 ye
Slide 13: Aygaz; leading cylinder market since its foundation
13 > Aygaz; leading cylinder market since its foundation CYLINDER MARKET SHARES Generic brand Market maker AYGAZ 42% Largest dealer network with highest SHV 29% sales efficiency DEMİRÖREN 16% 60% market share in residential use Fully integrated production cycle; Cylinder OTHER 13% and gas appliances
Slide 14: Slide 14
Slide 15: Autogas market keeping its steady growth
15 > Autogas market keeping its steady growth AUTOGAS MARKET AUTOGAS YoY CHANGES 3,142 14% 3,069 Turkish 2,727 2,838 12% market 2,695 10% (000 tons) 8% 792 6% 777 Aygaz 621 662 688 4% 2% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TURKISH MARKET AYGAZ Steady growth since 2003 Factors affecti
Slide 16: Economy of autogas
16 > Economy of autogas PRICE ADVANTAGE OF AUTOGAS 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 -10% -20% -30% price advantage NOV-12 JAN-13 MAR-13 MAY-13 JUL-13 SEP-13 NOV-13 JAN-14 MAR-14 MAY-14 JUL-14 SEP-14 NOV-14 JAN-15 MAR-15 MAY-15 JUL-15 SEP-15 NOV-15 JAN-16 MAR-16 MAY-16 JUL-16 SEP-16 NOV-16 DEC-16 to gasoline To gas
Slide 17: Autogas; most widely-used passenger car fuel of Turkey
17 > Autogas; most widely-used passenger car fuel of Turkey RATIO OF CARS REGISTERED TO TURKISH CAR PARK (m cars) TRAFFIC ACC. TO FUEL TYPE 4.3 4.4 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.3 34% 3.0 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 75% 5% 39% 2.5 2.9 15% 1.8 2.1 27% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2004 2016 GASOLINE DIESEL AUTOGAS G
Slide 18: Aygaz; leader of World's second biggest Autogas Market
18 > Aygaz; leader of World’s second biggest Autogas Market AUTOGAS MARKET SHARES MARKET SHARE & STATION NUMBER SHARE (%) 25 AYGAZ 25% PO 13% 17 SHELL-TURCAS 12% 12 13 12 11 SHV 8% 8 8 8 6 6 DEMİRÖREN* 8% 4 3 4 MARKET SHARE BP 6% STATION NUMBER SHARE AYGAZ PO SHELL-TURCAS DEMİRÖREN SHV BP TOTAL TOTA
Slide 19: Autogas car park growth
19 > Autogas car park growth 1,000+ conversion points 160,000 OEM; original equipment $500 average initial cost manufacturer conversions Payback in 15,000 km • Some major car manufacturers per year are providing guaranteed conversion currently AUTOGAS CONVERSIONS (m cars) 9.9 10.6 11.2 8.6 9.3 7.5 8
Slide 20: The LPG value chain
20 D The LPG value ~200 1,741 auto gas stations tankers chain 1,000,000 + vehicles using Aygaz Euro LPG+ Fixed storage Moving&floating capacity of storage capacity 178,400 m3 via AUTOGAS of 45,000 m3 23 facilities 3,000+ BULK bulk gas clients 4 LPG ships CYLINDER belonging to Supplying the fleet of
Slide 21: Competitive Supply Chain
21 > Competitive Supply Chain BIG PLAYER ADVANCED MODEL #1 purchaser in Mediterranean Direct imports to 6 different locations #1 importer in Turkey Most diversified supply portfolio in Turkey Diversified supplier & origins #1 FOB player in Black Sea Diversified supply pattern (ex-refinery, FOB, CIF)
Slide 22: Slide 22
Slide 23: Participation Portfolio
23 E Participation Portfolio Aygaz Natural Gas Anadoluhisarı 100% 100% EYAŞ* Akpa 20% 100% Entek Opet-Aygaz 50% Real Estate 50% *EYAŞ owns 51% of the shares of TÜPRAŞ
Slide 24: Natural gas
24 F Natural gas LNG SALES 2016 Transportation 19% market share, sales: and regasification 300 industrial ~100 mcm customers SALES VOLUME (mcm) PIPELINE NATURAL GAS SALES 1,103 961 Started in 2016 sales: 837 2010 ~950 mcm 366 PROJECTS 55 LNG & Pipeline gas import 128 125 94 92 100 2012 2013 2014 201
Slide 25: Natural gas strategy
25 > Natural gas STRATEGY Wholesale Power generation Companies and industry UPSTREAM TRANSMISSION IMPORT WHOLESALE AND STORAGE Local LNG Distribution Companies Companies CURRENT POSITION TARGET POSITION
Slide 26: Natural gas market dynamics
26 > Natural gas market dynamics 63 65 58 60 • Liberalization process still continues; only 20% of the 55 51 52 53 market is composed of private sector. 49 49 46 48 49 44 45 46 • Natural gas consumption of Turkey is expected to 37 reach 65 bcm in 2026. • Turkey needs additional gas entry for the fol
Slide 27: Other participations
27 G Other participations POWER GENERATION SALES AND MARKETING İzmit NGCC: 157 MW Direct sale of cylinder gas and carboy water throughout Turkey 3 hydro assets: 62 MW Fuel trade at its fuel stations Kepezkaya HEPP (Karaman) 28 MW Damlapınar HEPP (Karaman) 16 MW Kumköy HEPP (Samsun) 18 MW OPET AYGAZ
Slide 28: Aygaz key takeaways
28 > Aygaz key takeaways Consistent Brand Long-term Diversifier & Market Power Strategy Portfolio Leader Builder Investor Strong Sales & Financial Logistics Network Strength STRATEGIC PRIORITIES Sustain its market leadership in LPG through; • Product differentiation and innovation for autogas • Furt
Slide 29: Shareholder value
29 > Shareholder value OUTPERFORMER OF BIST 30 STRENGTHS Sustainable operating profitability from core business; LPG BIST Code AYGAZ Resistant to economic fluctuations and crises Bloomberg Code AYGAZ.TI High dividend payments Reuters Code AYGAZ.IS Corporate governance practices at international stan
Slide 30: Financial highlights
30 H Financial highlights SALES REVENUE (m TL) 7,061 6,420 6,749 6,005 5,586 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sales revenue figure fluctuations are mainly due to; • FX rate changes • Commodity price changes
Slide 31: Financial highlights
31 > Financial highlights GROSS PROFIT AND GPM EBITDA AND EBITDA MARGIN 11% 12% 9% 10% 6% 7% 5% 5% 4% 3% 677 787 337 394 521 571 527 285 252 188 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 GROSS PROFIT GROSS PROFIT MARGIN EBITDA EBITDA MARGIN NET PROFIT AND NPM PROFIT MARGINS 12% 7% 6% 10% 5%
Slide 32: Financial highlights
32 > Financial highlights NET CASH (m TL) WORKING CAPITAL (m TL) 276 186 267 213 248 110 297 271 267 182 120 304 367 390 483 475 2012 -65 -63 -269 -319 -372 -376 2013 -204 2016 -471 -263 2012 2014 2013 2015 2014 2016 2015 TRADE PAYABLES TRADE RECEIVABLES INVENTORY WORKING CAPITAL CURRENT RATIO RETUR
Slide 33: Financial highlights
33 > Financial highlights DEBT PROFILE AS OF 31/12/2016 (m TL) 2015 2016 TL ST Borrowings 66 1 TL Loan; Current portion of LT Borrowings 182 229 Bond; 31% LT Borrowings 303 400 38% Total Debt 551 630 *FX Cash and cash equivalents (-) 289 568 Loan; 31% = Net Debt 263 63 * FX position is actively ST:
Slide 34: Appendix
34 I Appendix
Slide 35: Income statement summary
35 1 Income statement summary (m TL) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sales Revenue 5,586 6,005 7,061 6,420 6,749 COGS (5,065) (5,434) (6,534) (5,743) (5,962) Gross Profit 521 571 527 677 787 Operating Profit 206 170 104 250 308 Profit Before Tax 345 237 237 458 469 Net Profit 305 205 218 418 416 EBITDA 285
Slide 36: Balance sheet summary
36 2 Balance sheet summary (m TL) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Cash & Cash Eq. 125 173 161 289 568 Trade Receivables 304 367 390 483 475 Inventories 213 276 110 186 267 Participations 1,230 1,377 1,677 1,867 1,922 Prop. Plant & Eq. 595 589 585 651 658 Financial Debt (6) (238) (365) (551) (630) Trade Pay
Slide 37: 2017 Q3 income statement summary
37 3 2017 Q3 income statement summary (m TL) Q317 Q217 Change Q317 Q316 Change Revenues 2,216 1,881 18% 2,216 1,845 20% Gross Profit 223 144 55% 223 217 3% Operating Profit 100 33 203% 100 85 19% Profit Before Tax 183 170 8% 183 132 39% Net Profit 166 168 -1% 166 119 40% EBITDA 122 55 122% 122 106 1
Slide 38: 2017 Q3 Aygaz LPG sales
38 4 2017 Q3 Aygaz LPG sales 626 594 514 527 520 283 (000 tons) 241 268 274 222 BULK OTHER 243 183 166 204 221 AUTOGAS 7 8 8 8 11 93 81 79 86 93 CYLINDER Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2016 2017 Q3 sales volumes were realized as; • 221 thousand tons in Autogas (-8.9% YoY) • 93 thousand tons in Cylinder Gas (-0.4% Y
Slide 39: Sales Volume in 9M of 2017
39 5 Sales Volume in 9M of 2017 According to 9M 2016 Domestic LPG sales 876 Thousand tons -2% YoY International and wholesale LPG sales 764 Thousand tons +9% YoY Total LPG sales 1.640 Thousand tons +3% YoY
Slide 40: Market shares
40 6 Market shares CYLINDER AUTOGAS 42% As of August 2017 EMRA report, Aygaz cylinder and autogas market shares are 42% 25% 42% and 25% respectively. 25% (42% and 25% in August 2016) AUGUST AUGUST 2016 2017 According to August 2017 EMRA report, 540,715 Turkish cylinder sales volume is 540,715 542,13
Slide 41: Income Statement - 9M Summary
41 7 Income Statement - 9M Summary (m TL) 9M17 9M16 Change Revenues 6,162 4,905 26% Gross Profit 557 586 -5% Operating Profit 219 233 -6% Profit Before Tax 523 311 68% Net Profit 492 277 78% EBITDA 285 297 -4% MARGINS Gross Profit M. 9% 12% -3 Operating Profit M. 4% 5% -1 Profit Before Tax M. 8% 6%
Slide 42: Balance Sheet - Summary
42 8 Balance Sheet- Summary (m TL) 9M17 12M16 9M16 Cash & Cash Eq. 401 568 511 Trade Receivables 537 475 439 Inventories 297 267 145 Prop. Plant&Equipment 674 658 650 Participations 2,238 1,922 1,897 Total Assets 4,706 4,314 4,073 Financial Debt 857 630 604 Trade Payables 492 471 312 Total Equity 2,
Slide 43: Glossary
43 J Glossary LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas EMRA Energy Market Regulatory Authority WLPGA World LPG Association SP Sonatrach Price PETDER Petroleum Industry Association FOB Free On Board CIF Cost, Insurance & Freight Med Mediterranean VLGC Very Large Gas Carrier EYAŞ Enerji Yatırımları A.Ş. LNG Liquid Na
Slide 44: Disclaimer
44 K Disclaimer This presentation may contain forward-looking statements that reflect the company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variabl
Slide 45: Contacts
45 L Contacts investor@aygaz.com.tr ferda.erginoglu@aygaz.com.tr Ferda Erginoğlu, CFO +90 212 354 1764 sebnem.yucel@aygaz.com.tr Şebnem Yücel, Finance Manager +90 212 354 1510 selin.sanver@aygaz.com.tr Selin Sanver, Investor Relations Manager +90 212 354 1659 www.aygaz.com.tr