Pge Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.a. · GPW:PGE
Pge Polska Grupa Energetyczna — Q1 2023 Earnings Presentation
43 slides from Pge Polska Grupa Energetyczna's earnings presentation, May 23, 2023
Slide 1: Q1 2023 Financial and Operating Results
Q1 2023 Financial and Operating Results INVESTOR PRESENTATION May 23, 2023
Slide 2: Financials
Financials
Slide 3: Key financial data
Key financial data [MSR, mln PLN] Q1 2023 Q1 2022 y/y Sales 27 208 16 897 61% EBITDA 3 427 2 615 31% Recurring EBITDA 1 3 346 2 596 29% EBIT 2 343 1 550 51% 1 Recurring EBIT 2 287 1 537 49% Net profit (loss) to equity 2 1 724 1 022 69% Net profit (to equity) – ex. Impairments 2 1 744 1 027 70% CAPEX
Slide 4: One-off and temporary items
One-off and temporary items Computation of recurring EBITDA and recurring EBIT: . Q1 2023 Q1 2022 y/y Correction of estimated contribution to the Price Difference Payment Fund for 2022 81 0 - Release of provision for Prosumers 0 19 -100% One-off items – EBITDA level 81 19 326% Impairments of TFA and
Slide 5: Development of EBITDA by major value drivers
Development of EBITDA by major value drivers (PLN m) Q1 2022 EBITDA REPORTED 2 615 One-offs 19 Q1 2022 EBITDA RECURRING 2 596 Result on sale of electricity -generation 6 345 + +Price of electricity (+7 204) (+475 PLN/MWh) Volume of generation (-859) (-1.9 TWh) Heat sales 730 - CO2 price (-2 358) (+1
Slide 6: Recurring EBITDA in Q1'23 – composition and development
Recurring1 EBITDA in Q1’23 – composition and development 1 274 14 132 3 346 436 916 -335 909 Conventional Generation District Heating Renewables Supply Distribution Circular economy Other EBITDA Q1 2023 909 916 436 -335 1 274 14 132 3 346 Share in Q1 2023 % 27% 27% 13% -10% 38% 0% 5 100% Q1 2022 438
Slide 7: Fundamentals of the distribution business
Fundamentals of the distribution business RAB (with RAB-AMI) development* Regulated revenue composition* (PLN m) 2 967 2 781 2 631 1 940 (PLN m) 7 175 8 086 11 504 6 394 18 929 19 620 19 806 4 513 3 721 2 101 1 091 1 132 1 324 1 313 1 301 1 050 1 140 1 685 RAB 2021 CAPEX recognized Deduction RAB 202
Slide 8: CO2 allowances – regulations and settlement
CO2 allowances – regulations and settlement EUA for own use (Cons. FS, note 15) Accounting standard EUA Allowances for proprietary consumption received free of charge are recognized Volume Value at its nominal value – zero. Provision for allowances required for redemption is (Mg m) (PLN m) raised re
Slide 9: Financial data by segments
Financial data by segments
Slide 10: Revenues and costs of Conventional Generation
Revenues and costs of Conventional Generation [PLN m] Q1 2023 Q1 2022 y/y Sales, including: 13 018 7 753 68% Sale of electricity 11 719 7 110 65% Revenues from Capacity Market and auxiliary seevices 1 188 569 109% Cost by kind, including 11 774 6 877 71% D&A 481 489 -2% Materials 2 079 705 195% Ener
Slide 11: Revenues and costs of District Heating
Revenues and costs of District Heating [PLN m] Q1 2023 Q1 2022 y/y Sale of electricity 4 863 2 460 98% Sale of electricity 2 760 1 239 123% Sale of heat and heat distribution services 1 675 970 73% Sale of CO2 62 59 5% Cost by kind, including 4 073 2 275 79% D&A 187 173 8% Materials 2 100 1051 100%
Slide 12: Revenues and costs of Renewables
Revenues and costs of Renewables [PLN m] Q1 2023 Q1 2022 y/y Sales, including: 932 766 22% Sale of electricity 741 627 18% Sale of certificates of origin 113 72 57% Capacity Market and auxiliary services 73 72 1% Other revenues from core activities 5 -5 - Cost by kind, including 566 360 57% D&A 88 8
Slide 13: Revenues and costs of Distribution
Revenues and costs of Distribution [PLN m] Q1 2023 Q1 2022 y/y Sales, including 2 771 1 807 53% Revenues from distribution services 2 653 1 694 57% Other revenues from core activities 82 80 3% Cost by kind, including 1 893 1 355 40% D&A 318 303 5% Materials 20 20 0% Energy 370 183 102% External serv
Slide 14: Revenues and costs of Supply
Revenues and costs of Supply [PLN m] Q1 2023 Q1 2022 y/y Sales, including: 25 392 11 853 114% Sale of electricity 7 699 5 256 46% Sale of CO2 allowances 10 920 5 413 102% Sale of natural gas 663 292 127% Sale of other fuels 1 3 755 513 632% Cost by kind, including 538 556 -3% D&A 8 8 0% Materials 2
Slide 15: Contributions to the Price Difference Payment Fund
Contributions to the Price Difference Payment Fund [PLN m] Q1 2023 Q1 2022 y/y Conventional Generation 1 977 0 - District Heating 220 0 - Renewables 120 0 - Contributions to the Price Difference Payment Fund 2 317 0 - 15
Slide 16: Conventional Generation – EBITDA in Q1 2023
Conventional Generation – EBITDA in Q1 2023 619 5 655 -1 977 -1 310 -1 302 -131 -127 -10 909 438 -946 2 EBITDA Electricity Electricity Capacity Price Costs CO2 costs Cost of Personnel Other EBITDA Q1 production production Market and Difference of fuel Commercial costs Q1 2023 2022 difference differe
Slide 17: District Heating – EBITDA in Q1 2023
District Heating – EBITDA in Q1 2023 170 1 341 3 -220 -1 046 271 746 -420 -17 -63 -50 EBITDA Heat Heat Electricity Electricity Capacity Revenues Price Cost of fuel Costs Personnel Other EBITDA Q1 2022 production production production production Market from support Difference of CO2 expenses Q1 2023
Slide 18: Renewables – EBITDA in Q1 2023
Renewables – EBITDA in Q1 2023 41 114 1 -52 -10 -120 -38 500 436 EBITDA Revenues from Revenues from Purchase Capacity Market Personnel Price Other EBITDA Q1 2022 electricity property of electricity and ancillary costs Difference Q1 2023 rights for services Payment Fund pumped-storage PP Change 114 4
Slide 19: Distribution – EBITDA in Q1 2023
Distribution – EBITDA in Q1 2023 735 484 -8 11 -57 1 274 -646 798 -43 2 3 EBITDA Electricity Change of 1 Network losses Additional estimation Real estate tax Personnel cost Other EBITDA Q1 2022 distribution volume distribution tariff of balancing Q1 2023 difference cost Change -43 735 -646 484 -8 -5
Slide 20: Supply – EBITDA in Q1 2023
Supply – EBITDA in Q1 2023 -9 497 -458 344 -335 -33 -79 -484 -5 -108 2 EBITDA Result on Result on Additional 1 Revenues from Result Result Personnel Other EBITDA Q1 2022 electricity electricity estimation of services provided on sale of gas on sale expenses Q1 2023 - volume - margin balancing to oth
Slide 21: Cash flows and debt
Cash flows and debt
Slide 22: Cash from operations, investments and net debt
Cash from operations, investments and net debt Consolidated Cash Flows . . . PLN m Q1 2023 Q1 2022 . Operating CF -6 828 1 281 . Investing CF -1 645 -913 . Financial CF 5 347 -978 . Change of cash and equivalents -3 126 -610 . Consolidated Balance Sheet . . . PLN m EOP BOP ∆ Q1 2023 Q1 2023 Q1 2023
Slide 23: Debt development and structure (March 31, 2023)
Debt development and structure (March 31, 2023) Gross debt and net debt (in PLN million) 20 000 15 000 10 000 5 000 0 -5 000 Gross debt Net debt Currency profile of drawn debt Fixed vs floating rates (including hedging transactions) (drawn debt) 4.1% 10.9% Fixed 70% 85.0% Floating 30% 23 EUR PLN USD
Slide 24: Debt maturity and available financing
Debt maturity and available financing Drawn debt and availability of external financing (in PLN m) as at March 31, 2023 10 000 9 000 8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000 4 000 3 000 2 000 1 000 0 Environmental funds EBRD EIB Current account credit Domestic bonds' EMTN program Revolving loan Syndicated loan BGK O
Slide 25: PGE cash position provides plenty of headroom
PGE cash position provides… Q1 2023 2022 Gross Debt (PLN m) 14 414 8 936 … plenty of headroom Net debt (PLN m) 5 942 -2 656 in the balance Net Debt/LTM EBITDA 0.63x -0.31x sheet Net Debt/Equity 0.11x -0.05x MOODY’S FITCH Long-term company rating (IDR) Baa1 BBB+ Rating outlook Stable Stable Date of r
Slide 26: Capital expenditures
Capital expenditures
Slide 27: Capital expenditures in Q1 2023
Capital expenditures in Q1 2023 PLN 198 m Conventional Generation CAPEX Kluczowe projekty in Q1 2023 PLN 183 m Supply, 12% 12% Circular Construction of CCGT units in PGE Gryfino PLN 242 m PLN 158 m Generation Economy and District Heating 2050 other* TOTAL 15% CAPEX Construction of New Czechnica CHP
Slide 28: Capital expenditures
Capital expenditures Segment (PLN m) Q1 2023 Q1 2022 y/y Conventional Generation 198 95 108% District Heating 242 110 120% Distribution, including: 815 253 222% New clients connection 339 139 144% Distribution grid 318 62 413% Renewables, including: 165 53 211% Modernisation and replacement 30 6 400
Slide 29: Operations
Operations
Slide 30: Key operating data
Key operating data Net generation of electricity by fuels, sales to final clients and distribution [TWh] Q1 2023 Q1 2022 y/y Net electricity generation, by fuels: 15,72 17,32 -9% Lignite 8,17 10,32 -21% incl. Turów 7 unit 0,56 0,59 -5% hard coal (including) 4,93 4,87 1% Conventional Generation segme
Slide 31: Generation volume by fuel – Q1 2023 y/y
Generation volume by fuel – Q1 2023 y/y TWh National Power System (y/y): 17.32 15.72 Q1 2023 Q1 2022 Lower demand for electricity. Domestic 10.32 energy consumption lower by 1.6 TWh y/y (- 8.17 3.5% y/y). Net electricity import 0.6 TWh (net export 1.0 TWh in Q1 2022) → lower 4.93 4.87 generation by
Slide 32: Electricity market - balance of energy
Electricity market - balance of energy Continuing trend of declining demand and import of electricity Domestic consumption and generation [GWh] 17.000 Q1: Consumption Q1 Q1 -3% (-1.6 TWh y/y) 16.000 15.000 Balance of foreign exchange (+1.6 TWh y/y) 14.000 13.000 Q1: Generation 12.000 -7% (-3.2 TWh y
Slide 33: Electricity market - price
Electricity market - price Decline in fuel prices reflected in electricity prices BASE Forward next year and CO2 prices [PLN/MWh] 2.000 Q1 1.800 BASE Y+1 1.600 BASE_Y-24 Average annual BASE Y+1 price 1.400 CO2 1 112 1.200 1.000 794 • Price of BASE 2024 contract during the first three 800 months of 2
Slide 34: Generation assets - conventional
Generation assets - conventional Lower load factor of lignite power plants Availability Capacity Factor 92.6% 94.0% • Significantly lower load factor of 90.2% 87.1% 79.6% 85.1% 83.3% lignite power plants due to lower demand for electricity. 63.3% 61.8% 56.0% • Higher load factor of hard coal power p
Slide 35: Generation assets – wind farms
Generation assets – wind farms 97,5% 96,9% -0.6 pp • Lower load factor due to unfavourable wind conditions. 38,8% 36,2% -2.6 pp Q1 2022 Q1 2023 Availability Load factor 35
Slide 36: Distribution assets
Distribution assets • Declining distribution volumes Volume of distributed electricity (TWh) Network losses [%] • Higher level of network losses at the end of 6.60 (moving average last 12 months) Q1 2023. 9.79 -3% 5.60 9.53 9.47 16% 9.30 9.19 9.17 4.60 4,73 4,08 3.60 • Some qualitative indicators of
Slide 37: Q1 2023 Output and sales of electricity
Q1 2023 Output and sales of electricity Illustrative Households Conventional Generation 2.55 TWh 11.56 TWh 2.60 TWh 13.61 TWh (Q1 2022) (Q1 2022) Wholesale and balancing Supply market 29% District heating 11.61 TWh 8.87 TWh* 17.24 TWh 9.10 TWh 3.13 TWh (Q1 2022) 71% (Q1 2022) 2.80 TWh (Q1 2022) Busi
Slide 38: Lower SPOT prices y/y at power exchange
Lower SPOT prices y/y at power exchange PGE average wholesale price of CO2 allowance (EUA_DEC_Y) Hard coal (Polish Steam Coal Index electricity (Conventional Generation)* PSCMI1) EUR/t PLN/GJ 32.2 90.3 PLN/MWh 768 86.4 82.0 79.4 77.4 25.2 25.6 68% 68.2 576 560 57.2 50.7 139% 457 478 10% 15.0 38.0 13
Slide 39: Invitation for webcast
Invitation for webcast On behalf of Wojciech Dąbrowski President & CEO and Lechosław Rojewski Vice-President for Finance & CFO we kindly invite you to a webcast of the presentation of PGE Q1 2023 results which will be held on Wednesday, May 24, 2023 at 10:00 AM(CEST) Transmission will be available o
Slide 40: Sell-side analysts covering PGE
Sell-side analysts covering PGE Institution Analyst BOŚ Jakub Viscardi Citigroup Piotr Dzięciołowski Erste Group Research Petr Bartek IPOPEMA Robert Maj mBank Kamil Kliszcz Pekao Marcin Górnik PKO BP Andrzej Rembelski Santander Biuro Maklerskie Paweł Puchalski Societe Generale Bartłomiej Kubicki Tri
Slide 41: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by the management of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. (the “Company” or “PGE”) and other entities. This presentation does not constitute or form part of and should not be constructed as, an offer to sell, or the solicitation or invitation of any offer
Slide 42: Investor Relations contacts
Investor Relations contacts Filip Osadczuk Krzysztof Dragan Stanisław Ozga CFA IR and ESG Director filip.osadczuk@gkpge.pl krzysztof.dragan@gkpge.pl stanislaw.ozga@gkpge.pl Tel: (+48 22) 340 12 24 Tel: (+48 22) 340 15 13 Tel: (+48 22) 340 12 69 Mob: +48 695 501 370 Mob: +48 601 334 290 Mob: +48 887
Slide 43: Thank you
Thank you
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