Pge Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.a. · GPW:PGE
Pge Polska Grupa Energetyczna — Technical Presentation (March 2026)
43 slides from Pge Polska Grupa Energetyczna's technical presentation, March 2026
Slide 1: Offshore Wind 2026+: Global Trends, PGE Baltica Portfolio and Financial Model Insights
Offshore Wind 2026+: Global Trends, PGE Baltica Portfolio and Financial Model Insights 1 March 2026
Slide 2: Today’s presenters
Today’s presenters Bartosz Fedurek Łukasz Gołaszewski CEO CFO ▪ Experience: over 20 years in the energy sector, shaping ▪ Experience: 20 years of experience in corporate finance, development strategies and delivering large-scale energy funding, debt structuring, financial analysis, controlling and p
Slide 3: Table of contents
Table of contents 1. PGE Baltica portfolio 2. Global trends 3. Key business case assumptions 4. Financial model insights – project perspective 5. Financial model insights – equity perspective 3
Slide 4: PGE Baltica portfolio
1 PGE Baltica portfolio 4
Slide 5: PGE Baltica leads Poland’s offshore wind sector
PGE Baltica leads Poland’s offshore wind sector, turning Baltic wind into value for the energy system, the economy and society. Our values: Trust I Responsibility I Courage I Collaboration I Efficiency 5 Confidential
Slide 6: PGE pipeline [MW]
PGE pipeline [MW] Note: Baltica 2 and Baltica 3 are owned by PGE (50%) and Orsted (50%) 6
Slide 7: PGE Baltica manages the largest offshore wind portfolio in Poland
Following the December 2025 CfD auction, PGE Baltica manages the largest offshore wind portfolio in Poland CfD-awarded project capacity [GW] 3,8 Baltica 9+, 1.3 GW FEW Baltic II, 0.35 GW 3,0 Baltica 9, 0.975 GW Bałtyk III, 0.75 GW 2,1 Baltica 3, 1.0 GW (50/50 JV with Ørsted) Bałtyk II, 0.75 GW Balti
Slide 8: PGE Baltica serves as the PGE Group’s offshore competence center
PGE Baltica serves as the PGE Group’s offshore competence center, supported by HQ expertise in specific domains PGE Baltica’s Project Origination Construction O&M Decommissioning competences development Core competence areas of PGE Baltica: Sector analyses, portfolio Stakeholder Procurement Project
Slide 9: A journey of intensive knowledge growth and capability-building achievements
A journey of intensive knowledge growth and capability-building achievements • Setting up PGE Baltica • Signing of the final 50/50 • Final Investment • Acquisition of RWE’s Polish Baltica 9+ to lead PGE Group’s joint venture agreement Decision (FID) for 1.5 offshore assets offshore wind strategy wit
Slide 10: Disclaimer
Disclaimer The results, forecasts and model outputs presented herein do not represent, reflect or imply the financial performance or technical assumptions of any existing or planned projects of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna. All values and model parameters shown in this presentation have been prepar
Slide 11: Global trends
2 Global trends 11
Slide 12: China and the UK are the largest offshore wind players
China and the UK are the largest offshore wind players Source: PGE estimates based on publicly available data 12
Slide 13: Top countries for offshore wind (operational projects) worldwide [MW]
Top 10 countries for offshore wind (operational projects) worldwide [MW] Source: PGE estimates based on publicly available data 13
Slide 14: Market downturn (2022-2024)
Market downturn (2022-2024) 14
Slide 15: 2025/2026 Breakthrough – The Great Comeback
2025/2026 Breakthrough – The Great Comeback 15
Slide 16: Comparison of support levels [PLN’25/MWh]
Comparison of support levels [PLN’25/MWh] Note: Where applicable, prices have been estimated using capacity-weighted averages 16
Slide 17: The future of offshore wind worldwide
The future of offshore wind worldwide Source: PGE estimates based on publicly available data 17
Slide 18: Global offshore wind development trends
Global offshore wind development trends 18
Slide 19: Offshore Wind – the ultimate renewable energy source
Offshore Wind – the ultimate renewable energy source Characterizes with highest capacity factors among renewable sources Productivity corelated with demand seasonally, peak performance during winter when energy is most needed Lowest volatility of production among renewable sources The most stable re
Slide 20: Offshore Wind – the ultimate renewable energy source
Offshore Wind – the ultimate renewable energy source 20
Slide 21: Key business case assumptions
3 Key business case assumptions 21
Slide 22: Key offshore wind regulations in Poland
Key offshore wind regulations in Poland Key highlights OWF support scheme ▪ The legal framework regulating and supporting the offshore wind sector in Poland is set out in the Act on Promoting Phase I Phase II Electricity Generation in Offshore Wind Farms, which entered into force in 2021 and was sub
Slide 23: CfD support scheme – main regulations
CfD support scheme – main regulations CfD contract is granted for 25 years from the first generation and introduction to the grid of electricity generated in an OWF or part thereof, based on the granted license. Electricity volume under CfD is limited up to 100 000 hours of generation at full capaci
Slide 24: Capital expenditures for offshore projects in Poland
Capital expenditures for offshore projects in Poland • We assumed approximately PLN 19m per MW of total CAPEX and DEVEX for the offshore wind Baltica 2 Baltic Power Bałtyk 2&3 project based on data for Polish projects. • These assumptions were nominalised using five years of annual inflation to refl
Slide 25: Data sources for UK benchmarks
Data sources for UK benchmarks • The Arup’s Cost of Electricity Report Update 2024 is an update of cost and technical assumptions for offshore wind prepared for DESNZ. It is based primarily on developer surveys, complemented by a literature review and Arup’s own benchmarks. The data were collected a
Slide 26: CAPEX for offshore wind projects in the UK
CAPEX for offshore wind projects in the UK [PLNm, real 2023] CAPEX/MW CAPEX breakdown 25 Package Share 21,76 Turbine supply 25% 20 Power export infrastructure 24% 17,23 Foundation supply 11% 15 14,17 Other Costs 11% Transport & Installation 10% 10 Offshore substation EPC 9% Cables supply 6% Pre-deve
Slide 27: Development and capital spend profiles
Development and capital spend profiles This table applies the scenario-specific development and capital spend profiles recommended by the Peer Review for modelling purposes. Spend profile Year Scenario category 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Development High 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 5% 5% 5% 5% 10% 10% 1
Slide 28: Combined PL-specific CAPEX spend profile
Combined PL-specific CAPEX spend profile The chart below shows the consolidated expenditure spend profile (Peer Review-adjusted medium scenario) applied in the modeling: • Combined CAPEX: Development (4 years) + Capital (3 years) • Total of 7 years as per the Offshore Wind Act (from CfD award to fir
Slide 29: OPEX for offshore wind projects in the UK
OPEX for offshore wind projects in the UK [PLNm, real 2023] OPEX breakdown OPEX/MW/a 0,40 0,371 Package Share 0,35 Turbine maintenance and service 40% 0,30 0,275 Balance of plant maintenance and service 14% 0,25 Insurance 13% 0,192 0,20 Logistics (onshore & offshore) 10% 0,15 Admin and support staff
Slide 30: DECEX for offshore wind projects in the UK
DECEX for offshore wind projects in the UK [PLNm, real 2023] DECEX/MW DECEX breakdown 3 Package Share 2,53 2,5 Cable decommissioning 36% Foundation decommissioning 31% 2 Turbine decommissioning 25% Substation decommissioning 8% 1,5 1,27 Source: based on BVG Associates. Guide to an Offshore Wind Farm
Slide 31: Load factor
31 Load factor Average capacity factor for Polish part of Baltic Sea 45% Results of the capacity factor assesment Current areas 42.7% 474% Potential areas 42.5% 48.5% © The capacity factor shows significant spatial variability and is determined by a range of factors, including local wind conditions,
Slide 32: WACC for an EUR denominated project
WACC for an EUR denominated project 32
Slide 33: IRR to WACC premium assumed by leading offshore wind developers
IRR to WACC premium assumed by leading offshore wind developers 33
Slide 34: Financial model insights – project perspective
4 Financial model insights – project perspective 34
Slide 35: Simplified financial model will be a base for further simulations
Simplified financial model will be a base for further simulations Summary of main assumptions for financial model Operational lifetime 35 years P50 Capacity Factor 45% P90 Capacity Factor 40,5% Start of operational period 2033 Development & Construction period 2025-2032 DECEX 1,27 mPLN’25/MW CAPEX&D
Slide 36: P50 Revenues
P50 Revenues Revenues [bPLN] 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 4,0 4,2 2,0 4,0 3,8 3,9 3,6 3,7 3,4 3,5 3,2 3,3 3,1 3,2 1,5 2,9 2,9 3,0 2,7 2,8 2,6 2,7 2,5 2,5 2,3 2,4 2,4 1,0 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 1,9 0,5 0,0 Conservative approach was adopted and Revenues from Guarantees of Origin have not been take
Slide 37: P50 EBITDA and EBIT
P50 EBITDA and EBIT EBITDA & EBIT [bPLN] 4 3,5 3,5 3,4 3,3 3,3 3 3,2 3,1 3,0 3,0 2,9 2,8 2,7 2,5 2,7 2,6 2,5 2,5 2,4 2,4 2,3 2,2 2,3 2 2,1 2,0 2,1 1,9 2,0 1,5 2,9 2,7 2,8 2,6 2,7 2,4 2,5 2,3 2,3 2,1 2,2 1,3 1,3 1,2 1 2,0 2,1 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,9 1,9 1,2 1,1 1,1 1,8 1,8 1,6 1,7 1,5 1,5 1,6 1,3 1,4 1,4
Slide 38: P50 Sensitivity analyses
P50 Sensitivity analyses EBITDA [mPLN] 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 -500 P50 Base Case 500 Negative Hours Electricity price after 25 years -25% OPEX indexation larger by 1% than CPI -1000 Case FCFF IRR P50 Base Case 7,8% 500 Negative Price Hours vs
Slide 39: Strike Price vs LCOE
Strike Price vs LCOE Strike Price - represents the per-unit electricity price bid under a CfD scheme, ensuring the investor achieves the expected rate of return. The CfD rules applicable to this price include, among others, the contract duration and indexation mechanisms. Merchant tail revenues also
Slide 40: Financial model insights – equity perspective
5 Financial model insights – equity perspective 40
Slide 41: Debt service, CFADS vs debt payments
Debt service, CFADS vs debt payments CFADS vs Debt Repayment [mPLN] 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 -500 -1 000 Repayment Interest paid CFADS Period 2033-2055 2056 Debt Service Cover Ratio 1,34 1,40 For Project Financing following assumptions have been adopted: • 80% levarage (D/(D+E)) • 5,7% co
Slide 42: Sensitivity analyses for bank case P90
Sensitivity analyses for bank case P90 CFADS [mPLN] 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 P90 c Case P50 Base 500 Negative Price Hours vs 200 Negative Price Hours Electricity price after 25 years -25% OPEX indexation larger by 1% than CPI Case DSCR P90
Slide 43: Thank you
Thank you 43
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