El5-ener · RUS:ELFV
El5-ener — Enel OGK-5 — Investor Day (March 2014)
21 slides from El5-ener's investor day presentation, Mar 26, 2014
Slide 1: Enel OGK-5 Investor Day
Enel OGK-5 Investor Day Business Plan 2014-18 Moscow March 26, 2014
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda • Focus on recent achievements Company evolution as part of Enel Group Managing business in a challenging environment • Business Plan 2014 - 2018 Macro and market trends Strategic guidelines Macro assumptions Market assumptions Technical KPIs Focus on day-ahead market operatio
Slide 3: Focus on recent achievements
Enel OGK-5 Investor Day Business Plan 2014-18 Focus on recent achievements
Slide 4: Company evolution as part of Enel Group
Focus on recent achievements Company evolution as part of Enel Group 2008 2013 Installed Capacity Installed Capacity ~8.7 GW 9.7 GW Energy margin1 Energy margin1 ~12.8 BRUR ~26.7 BRUR O&M costs2 O&M costs2 ~510 ThRUR/MW ~360 ThRUR/MW3 EBITDA EBITDA ~5.0 BRUR ~16.8 BRUR Employees4 Employees4 4,270 2,
Slide 5: Managing business in a challenging environment
Focus on recent achievements Managing business in a challenging environment Challenges Response M A • Slowdown of economic growth • Diversification of fuel suppliers portfolio, new C long-term contracts R • Weakening of local currency O • Continuous focus on cost excellence • Revision of CAPEX and O
Slide 6: Business Plan 2014 - 2018
Enel OGK-5 Investor Day Business Plan 2014-181 Business Plan 2014 - 2018 1 All numbers presented in this chapter are under Enel IFRS IAS unless otherwise indicated
Slide 7: Macro and market trends
Business Plan 2014-18 Macro and market trends Macro and market trends Implications for industry Economy Risk of earnings decrease stemming Governmental focus on: from: containment of inflation and softening of Further marginalization of conventional gas- tariff burden for industry and population
Slide 8: Strategic guidelines
Business Plan 2014-18 Strategic guidelines Variable Taking advantage of newly signed long-term fuel supply costs contracts and further diversification of supplies Fixed costs New wave of initiatives in OPEX management Strictly necessary CAPEX mainly focused on Reftinskaya to Cash flows ensure positi
Slide 9: Macro assumptions
Business Plan 2014-18 Macro assumptions CPI, % Power demand, TWh1 Installed capacity, GW1 CAGR 13-18: CAGR 13-18: 1.3% 2.7% Russian economy has space for growth notwithstanding recent slowdown 1 In Europe+Urals price zone of Russia 9
Slide 10: Market assumptions
Business Plan 2014-18 Market assumptions • 2014-16: in line with governmental forecast: freeze for 2014, 4,8% p.a. in 2015 - Gas tariff 2016. • 2017-18: 4-5% above CPI based on an ‘easing cycle’ assumption • Mostly linked to inflation Coal price • Transportation component flat for 2014 and increase
Slide 11: Technical KPIs
Business Plan 2014-18 Technical KPIs • Coal and CCGT: unchanged Installed • Conventional gas: -250MW caused capacity (GW) by decommissioning of outdated and inefficient facilities at Sredneuralskaya and Nevinnomysskaya plants • Coal: 20.5 TWh in 2014 due to high amount of planned maintenance, 22- 23
Slide 12: Focus on day-ahead market operations
Business Plan 2014-18 Focus on day-ahead market operations DAM price and fuel costs (RUR/MWh) DAM margin1 (BRUR) • Coal: impacted by gas price scenario, 2016 increase supported by higher net output • DAM price: lagging behind gas tariff • Conventional gas: gas price benefits offset by • Conventional
Slide 13: Energy margin
Business Plan 2014-18 Energy margin1 Energy margin by Energy margin by market segment (BRUR) technology (BRUR) • Power: positive DAM sales dynamics enhanced by higher • Coal: largely in line with DAM margin margin from regulated sales due to gas price benefits • Conventional gas: despite neutral DAM
Slide 14: Fixed costs
Business Plan 2014-18 Fixed costs O&M costs Personnel costs (Th RUR/MW installed, CPI adjusted) (BRUR, CPI adjusted) • 0.7% real term CAGR over 2013-2018 • -2.4% real term CAGR over 2013-2018 • Year-to-year fluctuations attributable to CCGT • Real term costs decline attributable to scheduled mainten
Slide 15: EBITDA
Business Plan 2014-18 EBITDA (BRUR) ~18.5 16.8 ~15.5 • 2014 EBITDA decrease vs. 2013 mainly attributable to one-off items in 2013, in particular property tax • Solid EBITDA increase in 2016 mainly thanks to energy margin growth and OPEX reduction programme Conservative EBITDA targets stemming from n
Slide 16: Net ordinary income
Business Plan 2014-18 Net ordinary income1 ~8 • Flat net income dynamics for 2014 ~5 despite EBITDA reduction attributable to 4.9 one-off costs in 2013, mainly bad debt provision booked last year • Strong growth in 2016 net income to be achieved thanks to EBITDA increase Commitment to deliver stable
Slide 17: CAPEX
Business Plan 2014-18 CAPEX CAPEX 2014-18 Key features Total CAPEX: • CAPEX for 2014-18 reduced by 10% versus old business plan ~38 BRUR • Reduction most evident in 2015-18, ~42.5 BRUR CAPEX as large part of CAPEX for 2014 has for 2013-17 been already contracted • Environmental investments in CAPEX
Slide 18: Cash flows and dividends
Business Plan 2014-18 Cash flows and dividends Cash flow (BRUR) ~15 ~11 Dividends ~6 • Dividend policy: 40% of Inflow IFRS ordinary net income for the previous year ~1 • 13.5b RR cumulated dividends over 2014-18 ~-2 ~-2 Outflow ~-7 ~-8 Operating CF + WC + debt servicing CAPEX Dividends based on prev
Slide 19: Financials summary
Business Plan 2014-18 Financials summary (B RUR) 2014 2016 • EBITDA • ~ 15.5 • ~ 18.5 • Ordinary net income •~ 5 •~ 8 • Free cash flow1 •~ 1 •~ 6 • Net debt/EBITDA2 • ~ 1.2x • ~ 0.5x Preserving business solidity 1 After dividends 2 At year end 19
Slide 20: Disclaimer
Enel OGK-5 Investor Day Business Plan 2014-18 Disclaimer This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information (“forward-looking statements”). These forward-looking statements are based on Enel OGK-5 ’s current expectations and pro
Slide 21: Contacts
Enel OGK-5 Investor Day Business Plan 2014-18 Contacts Alexey Leonov (Head of IR) +7 495 539 31 31 ext. 7631 alexey.leonov@enel.com Visit our website at: www.ogk-5.com (Investor Relations) 21