Public Service Company Of New Mexico · OTC:PNMXO
Public Service Company Of New Mexico — Corporate Update (September 2007)
37 slides from Public Service Company Of New Mexico's corporate update, Sep 28, 2007
Slide 1: Electric Integrated Resource Plan
Electric Integrated Resource Plan Third Public Involvement Meeting September 28, 2007 PNM Alvarado Square 1
Slide 2: Electric Integrated Resource Plan Speaker
Electric Integrated Resource Plan Evelin Wheeler Public Communications Manager PNM Utilities Director, Strategy Planning & Analytics 2
Slide 3: Schedule & Objective
Schedule & Objective • September – Defining Resource Options • October – Cost & Reliability • November – Environmental Impacts • December – Wrap Up & Transition to Modeling 3
Slide 4: Analysis
Analysis Cindy Bothwell Manager, Integrated Resource Planning Manager, Integrated Resource Planning 4
Slide 5: Modeling Overview
Modeling Overview • Goal is to define and test portfolios over a range of scenarios to suggest a robust solution • Projecting the future – Based on best available projections – Know that projections will not be perfect 5
Slide 6: Modeling Vocabulary
Modeling Vocabulary • Sensitivity • Scenario • Portfolio • Risk • Robust 6
Slide 7: Modeling Techniques
Modeling Techniques • Vary the sensitivities over a reasonable range • Examine multiple scenarios • Consider enough risks so that robust portfolios emerge 7
Slide 8: Current Sensitivity List
Current Sensitivity List • Carbon Prices: $8, $20 and $40 per metric ton • Load forecast: base, high and low • Natural Gas Prices: base, high and low • Market Sales: on and off • Renewables: diversity and quantity Combining these sensitivities produces at least 108 scenarios with 5,000 portfolios ea
Slide 9: Portfolio Generation
Portfolio Generation Portfolio Ranking by Least Cost Low Base High Low Base High $8 $20 $40 Load Gas Price Carbon Tax Others Portfolios sorted by cost, emissions and reliability for 9 each scenario
Slide 10: Selecting Portfolios
Selecting Portfolios • Find top performers across a wide variety of scenarios • Select representative, diverse set for further risk analysis 10
Slide 11: Portfolio Risk Analysis
Portfolio Risk Analysis Portfolio Risk Analysis Test Top Portfolios Using Monte Carlo Carbon Tax $8 $20 $40 Load Gas Price Market 11
Slide 12: Discussion: Scenarios vs. Distributions
Discussion Analysis Techniques Scenarios vs. Distributions 12
Slide 13: Energy Efficiency and Demand Response as a Resource
Energy Efficiency and Demand Response as a Resource Gerard Ortiz Director, Market Services Director, Market Services 13
Slide 14: PNM's EE and Demand Side Management (DSM) Programs
PNM’s EE and Demand Side Management (DSM) Programs • PRC recently approved PNM’s electric EE program – 7 residential & 3 commercial programs – Annual budget = $7.5M (1.3% of revenue) – Saves 26 GWh/year & 60 MW in third year – Project exceeding 1.5% cap in 2009-2010 – Funding peaks at $12M in 2011 •
Slide 15: EE Opportunity Study
EE Opportunity Study • Completed by Itron Consulting, September 2006 • Basis for PNM energy efficiency program development • Includes residential, commercial and industrial potential • Does not include demand response • Savings opportunity projections assume multiple funding scenarios • Savings are
Slide 16: Opportunity Summary
Opportunity Summary Itron Base Case Scenario • Assumes a $5.1M average annual funding level • Assumes customer incentives will cover 33% of incremental measure cost • Projected 10-year savings are equivalent to 15% of energy growth and 12% of demand growth Itron Advanced Case Scenario • Assumes a $1
Slide 17: Energy Savings (GWH)
Energy Savings % of Grow th 1,000 900 28% Energy Savings (GWH) 800 700 600 500 15% 400 300 200 100 - 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Itron Base Itron Advanced 17
Slide 18: Demand Savings (MW)
Demand Savings % of Growth 160 24% 140 Demand Savings (MW) 120 100 80 12% 60 40 20 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Itron Base Itron Advanced 18
Slide 19: Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Incentives
Energy Efficiency and Demand Response Incentives Brent Rice Executive Director, Customer Solutions Executive Director, Customer Solutions 19
Slide 20: Energy Efficiency and Demand Response
Energy Efficiency and Demand Response • Part of GHG solution • Policy change needed to realize full potential • PNM exploring action plans 20
Slide 21: Utility Barriers
Utility Barriers • Reduces energy sales • Lost margin opportunity • Regulatory treatment 21
Slide 22: Customer Barriers
Customer Barriers • Requires investment of time and money • Cross-subsidization 22
Slide 23: Discussion
Discussion Energy Efficiency and Demand Response as a Resource 23
Slide 24: Resource Option Potential
Resource Option Potential Cindy Bothwell Manager, Integrated Resource Planning 24
Slide 25: Operational Characteristics
Operational Characteristics • Availability • Dispatchability • Start up time • Cycling • Capacity at peak • Reliability 25
Slide 26: Demand Side Options
Demand Side Options • Distributed Generation • Demand Response • Energy Efficiency 26
Slide 27: Renewables
Renewables • Biomass • Geothermal • Solar (with and without storage) • Wind (with and without storage) 27
Slide 28: Other Supply Side Options
Other Supply Side Options • Coal – With and without carbon capture • Natural Gas – With and without heat recovery • Nuclear 28
Slide 29: Transmission Options
Transmission Options • Load Area – minimal transmission costs • Outside Load Area – potentially significant transmission costs All generation resources must have associated transmission for delivery 29
Slide 30: Discussion: Resource Option Potential
Discussion Resource Option Potential Resource Option Potential 30
Slide 31: Resource Option Logistics
Resource Option Logistics Cindy Bothwell Manager, Integrated Resource Planning 31
Slide 32: Customer Side
Customer Side • Demand Response • Distributed Generation – PNM’s residential PV program – Commercial PV • Energy Efficiency 32
Slide 33: Load Side
Load Side Options that can be sited near the system load, reducing transmission requirements: – Biomass – Natural Gas – Solar 33
Slide 34: Siting Resources
Siting Resources Shiprock San Juan Walsenburg Four Corners WECC Path 48 Springer Ojo Taos Gladstone Los Alamos Bravo Dome Norton Yah-tah-ey McKinley Las Vegas Ambrosia Algodones Santa Fe PEGS Guadalupe B-A HVDC tie Springerville Moriarty West Mesa Blackwater Belen Sandia Willard Bernardo Socorro SPP
Slide 35: Estimated Lead Time
Estimated Lead Time Beginning July 1, 2008 – after the IRP is submitted Lead Time Options Short, 2008 Customer-Sited PV 3 years, 2011 Natural Gas CT or CC Wind Large Solar 5 years, 2013 Geothermal 7 years, 2015 Coal Plant 11 years, 2019 Nuclear 35
Slide 36: Discussion: Resource Option Logistics
Discussion Resource Option Logistics Resource Option Logistics 36
Slide 37: Overview & Wrap Up
Overview & Wrap Up Pat O’Connell Manager, Integrated Resource Planning Project Manager, Integrated Resource Planning 37
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