Ameren Corporation · NYSE:AEE
Ameren — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation
35 slides from Ameren's earnings presentation, Nov 7, 2024
Slide 1: Powering a Reliable, Sustainable Tomorrow
Powering a Reliable, Sustainable Tomorrow Third Quarter 2024 Earnings November 7, 2024
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented adjusted earnings per share, which is a non-GAAP measure and may not be comparable to those of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information is included in this presentation. Gener
Slide 3: Strategic and Business Update
Strategic and Business Update Marty Lyons Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ameren Corp. Ameren Missouri’s Montgomery Community Solar Energy Center
Slide 4: Our Strategic Plan
Our Strategic Plan INVEST ENHANCE OPTIMIZE Enhance regulatory Invest in rate-regulated Optimize operating frameworks and advocate energy infrastructure performance for responsible policies To capitalize on opportunities to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment Third Qu
Slide 5: Q3 Earnings Summary
Q3 Earnings Summary • Consistent, experienced management team remains focused on safely executing strategic plan Adjusted Diluted EPS2 2023 vs. 2024 • Key Q3 earnings variance drivers ↑ Earnings on increased infrastructure investments $3.78 $3.86 ↑ Lower adjusted operations and maintenance expenses1
Slide 6: Strong Earnings Growth Expectations
Strong Earnings Growth Expectations • Expect 2024 adjusted diluted earnings per share to be in the range of $4.55 to $4.691, compared to our Diluted EPS Guidance1 prior GAAP range of $4.52 to $4.72 per share $4.95 • Expect 2025 diluted earnings per share to be in the $4.62 range of $4.85 to $5.05 –
Slide 7: Executing Our Strategy in 2024
Executing Our Strategy in 2024 Invest • $3 billion of capital invested benefiting our customers and communities – Significant infrastructure investment in electric, natural gas and transmission infrastructure projects Capital Expenditures • Acquired 500 MW of solar generation; expected in service by
Slide 8: Ameren Missouri New Generation Projects
Ameren Missouri New Generation Projects Reliable, Affordable Energy Through a Cleaner Balanced Energy Portfolio Anticipated Energy Generation Agreement Facility Size Developer CCN Status In-Service Center Type Type Date Build- EDF Approved Feb. Huck Finn1,2 200 MW Solar Q4 2024 transfer Renewables 2
Slide 9: MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Projects
MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Projects Enhancing Reliability and Lowering Customer Costs • MISO proposed Tranche 2.1 projects estimated to cost $21.8 billion1; expect MISO approval Dec. 12, 2024 – Portfolio focuses on creating high-voltage transmission highways within the MISO region to maxi
Slide 10: Robust Customer Growth Opportunities
Robust Customer Growth Opportunities Facilitating Growth in Our Region While Delivering Value for All Customers Expanding Economic Development Pipeline • Robust pipeline of potential customers conducting formal engineering reviews Represents Tens of Thousands of MW of locations in our territory of P
Slide 11: Rush Island Energy Center Retirement
Rush Island Energy Center Retirement • Rush Island Energy Center retired on Oct. 15, 2024 – Necessary transmission and system upgrades identified by the MISO grid reliability study nearing completion – 100% of impacted employees offered a new position within the company – Return on rate base, relate
Slide 12: Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade
Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade1 Modernizing the grid and investing in cleaner generation Investment Plan 2024-2028 $55B+ ($ billions) $21.9 Strong Pipeline of Regulated Infrastructure Investments $4.1 2024-2033 $1.8 • Modernize electric and gas transmission an
Slide 13: Long-term Total Return Outlook
Long-term Total Return Outlook Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment • Remain on track to deliver strong long-term earnings growth – Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from 2024-20281 • Using 2024 adjusted EPS guidance range m
Slide 14: Financial Update
Financial Update Michael Moehn Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Ameren Corp.
Slide 15: GAAP to Adjusted Earnings Reconciliation
GAAP to Adjusted Earnings Reconciliation Three Months Ended Nine Months Ended Sep. 30, Sep. 30, (in millions, except per share amounts) 2023 2024 2023 2024 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $ 493 $ 1.87 $ 456 $1.70 $ 994 $ 3.78 $ 975 $3.65 Charge for additional mitigation relief for Rush Island Energy Cen
Slide 16: 2024 Third Quarter Adjusted Earnings Analysis – Key Drivers
2024 Third Quarter Adjusted Earnings Analysis – Key Drivers ↑ Ameren Transmission earnings — Increased investments in infrastructure Adjusted Diluted EPS2 ↑ Parent Company and Other results Q3 2023 vs. Q3 2024 — Lower tax expense due, in part, to timing differences — Higher interest expense $1.87 $1
Slide 17: Select Balance of the Year Considerations and EPS Guidance
Select Balance of the Year Considerations and EPS Guidance • Expect 2024 adjusted diluted EPS to be in the range of $4.55 to $4.691 Diluted 2024 Adjusted EPS Guidance1 • Select considerations for Q4 2024 EPS compared to Q4 2023 EPS – Higher investments in infrastructure at Ameren Missouri eligible f
Slide 18: 2025 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers & Assumptions vs. 2024
2025 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers & Assumptions vs. 2024 Midpoint represents ~7% EPS growth compared to 2024 adjusted guidance midpoint of $4.62 ↑ New electric service rates effective by June 1 ↑ Higher investments in infrastructure eligible for PISA including rebased in new rates:~+$0.16 Ameren ↑
Slide 19: Missouri Electric Regulatory Matters
Missouri Electric Regulatory Matters 2024 Missouri Electric Rate Review Filing • $446 million annual revenue increase request filed June 28 with MoPSC – ROE: 10.25% – Equity ratio: 52.0% – Rate base: $14 billion (Dec. 31, 2024 estimate) – Test year ended Mar. 31, 2024, with certain pro-forma adjustm
Slide 20: Illinois Regulatory Matters
Illinois Regulatory Matters Electric Distribution Reconciliation for 2023 • In July 2024, Ameren Illinois updated request for a $158 million reconciliation adjustment to the 2023 revenue requirement reflecting actual costs – Based on 2023 year-end rate base of $4.2 billion, 9.84% ROE and 50% equity
Slide 21: Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027
Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027 Order on Rehearing • In June 2024, ICC approved a cumulative revenue increase of $285 million1, reflecting a base level of grid reliability investment – Approved ~94% of Ameren Illinois’ rehearing request; remaining difference drive
Slide 22: Credit Ratings and Financing Activity
Credit Ratings2 and Financing Activity External Debt Balances Debt Financing Issuance Date Issuer Rate Type Maturity As of Sep. 30, 2024 $ in millions Moody's S&P ($M) Jan. 9 Ameren Missouri $350 5.25% First Mortgage Bonds 2054 Ameren Corporation (Issuer: Baa1/BBB+) Apr. 4 Ameren Missouri $500 5.20%
Slide 23: Summary
Summary Expect 2024 adjusted diluted EPS to be in the range of $4.55 to $4.69 Expect 2025 diluted EPS to be in the range of $4.85 to $5.05 Successfully executing our strategy; well-positioned for future growth • Focused on delivering a reliable and sustainable energy future in a responsible manner S
Slide 24: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 25: Our Sustainability Value Proposition
Our Sustainability Value Proposition ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP SOCIAL IMPACT • Responsibly transitioning to a cleaner and more diverse portfolio • Delivered value to customers in 2023 while focused on safety ‒ Target carbon reductions from 2005 levels: 60% by 2030; 85% by 2040; net ‒ Ameren-supplied
Slide 26: 2024 Adjusted Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sep. 30
2024 Adjusted Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sep. 30 ↑ Ameren Missouri earnings — Increased investments in infrastructure eligible for PISA and AFUDC: +$0.11 — New electric service rates effective July 9, 2023: +$0.09 Adjusted Diluted EPS2 — Higher electric retail sales: ~+$0.05 YTD Sep. 20
Slide 27: Four Regulatory Frameworks
Four Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated: Formula ratemaking Ameren • Allowed ROE is 10.48%, including MISO participation adder of 50 basis points; ~56% average equity ratio Transmission • Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation ICC-regulated: Future
Slide 28: Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan Performance Metrics
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan Performance Metrics Adjustment / Metric Description Incentive (+/- bps) Improve System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) systemwide; improve interruption and 1. Reliability duration of outages (SAIDI, SAIFI, CEMI, and CELID) in env
Slide 29: Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filed with MoPSC Sep. 2023
Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filed with MoPSC Sep. 20233 Least-cost approach to reliably meet customer energy needs in an environmentally responsible manner • Carbon emissions1: Targets substantial reductions; 60% by 2030, 85% by 2040 and net-zero by 2045 • Coal: All energy centers retired by 2
Slide 30: Investing in the Energy Grid
Investing in the Energy Grid • Investing to modernize energy grid, making it cleaner, safer, more reliable, resilient and secure – Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with the MoPSC supporting infrastructure investment to 2023-2028E Regulated modernize the grid Infrastructure Rate Base3 – Expect
Slide 31: Long-Term Debt Maturities and Interest Rates
Long-Term Debt Maturities and Interest Rates Issuer 20241 2025 2026 2027 2028 $350 million 3.65% senior unsecured notes $450 million 2.50% $500 million 1.95% $450 million 1.75% Ameren Corp. senior unsecured notes senior unsecured notes senior unsecured notes $600 million 5.70% senior unsecured notes
Slide 32: Ameren’s Estimated Coal-Related Revenues in 2023
Ameren’s Estimated Coal-Related Revenues in 2023 Return on Investment Revenues Cost Recovery3 Revenues $1.97B1 x $1.97B1 x ($98M x $466M + 51.9%2 x 48.1% x 25%) / (1 $171M x $131M + 9.59%2 = 3.93% = - 25%) 17%1 = $265M = $98M $37M $33M $29M $862M $7,500M 14% Return on Interest Tax Expense Property F
Slide 33: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar NOVEMBER 2024 JANUARY 2025 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. ` 1 2 1 2 3 4 Quiet Period cont’d 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Q3 Evercore Earnings Call ISI Conf. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 EEI EEI EEI Quiet Financial F
Slide 34: Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters
Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • Pending electric rate review filling: Docket No. ER-2024-0319 • Order approving CCN for Castle Bluff Energy Center: EA-2024-0237 • Pending gas rate review filing: Docket No. GR-2024-0369 • Order approving multi-project CC
Slide 35: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations ALJ – Administrative law judge LRTP – Long Range Transmission Planning ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois LT – Long-term AFUDC – Allowance for Funds Used During Construction M – Million bps – Basis points MEEIA – Missouri Energy Efficiency Investment A