Ctp N.v. · EURONEXT:CTPNV
Ctp — Colliers CEE Real Estate Market Outlook, Bucharest (September 2024)
32 slides from Ctp's conference presentation, Sep 23, 2024
Slide 1: CEE Real Estate Market Outlook
CEE REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK KEVIN TURPIN EMEA KEY A CCOUNT MA NA GEMENT L EA D | INV ES TORS EMEA CA PITA L MA RKETS B UCHA RES T, 2 3 RD S EPTEMB ER 2 0 2 4
Slide 2: CEE economies: We've come a long way, but there's still more room to grow
CEE economies: We’ve come a long way, Colliers 2 but there's still more room to grow Sou Source: IMF, Colliers
Slide 3: CEE-6 economies (mostly) overachievers
Colliers 3 To p 1 0 f a s t e s t g r o w i n g e c o n o m i e s i n t h e w o r l d i n t h e p o s t - p a n d e m i c p e r i o d CEE-6 economies (mostly) overachievers 3 of the CEE-6 economies in top 10 best performing Change in GDP/capita GDP/capita economies in the world in the 2020s decade –
Slide 4: Busting the myth of CEE-6 poverty
Colliers 4 Parts of CEE-6 are doing better than some cities in Western Europe Busting the myth of CEE-6 poverty • Pockets within CEE-6 (capital cities, some regional cities) offer the average inhabitant better purchasing power than in many parts of the west • Bucharest, Warsaw ranked in top 10% of E
Slide 5: The ingredients of success in the CEE
Colliers 5 Cheap qualitative employees plus strategic location will continue to drive growth the CEE The ingredients of success in the CEE - CEE-6 are no long cheap destinations of outsourcing, however, all countries are producing high quality and high value-added services -> all countries are ranke
Slide 6: State aid in the European Union
CEE offers highest state aid limits in the EU State aid in the European Union State aid rules in the EU •Every 7 years EU establishes a map of regional aid intensity •Less developed regions are allowed to provide more state aid to companies •CEE offers highest aid in the EU (up to 70% of CAPEX) •Gen
Slide 7: Capital Flows
CAPITAL FLOWS CEE B UCHA RES T, 2 3 RD S EPTEMB ER 2 0 2 4
Slide 8: CEE-6 Volumes (€ Bn) by Country: 2007 – H1 2024
Colliers 8 Investment in CEE CEE-6 Volumes (€ Bn) by Country: 2007 – H1 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 CEE volumes down ca. 52% YoY, CEE volumes on par with the CEE Volumes -20% (vs. 2019) CEE Volumes -25% YoY as the the lowest result since 2012. A 10-year average at ca. – I&L ranks #1 for the first pande
Slide 9: Volumes by Sector 2019 – 2023
Colliers 9 Volumes by Sector 2019 – 2023 CEE Office supply slowed recently, with CEE 10Y volumes are on average ca. 15- Most active sectors 2018-2023: Offices 10% stock growth over the past 3 years. 20% of Germany and a similar in size to (41%), I&L (26%), CEE Industrial stock on the other hand Denm
Slide 10: Sector Volumes by Capital Source 2019 – 2023
Colliers 10 Sector Volumes by Capital Source 2019 – 2023 *based on buyer activity 2019-2023
Slide 11: CEE Investment Yields
Colliers 11 CEE Investment Yields Source: Colliers, Eurostat, 2024 (Germany Big 4 Average: Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich)
Slide 12: Sources of Capital 2019 – 2023
Colliers 12 Sources of Capital 2019 – 2023 Investors’ environmental considerations in 2023 (%) Share of national domestic capital investing in their own Share of CEE-6 capital investing in the region markets vs. all other capital sources 2019 – 2023 vs. all major capital source regions 2019 –2023 Co
Slide 13: CEE-6 Industrial Volumes (€ Bn)
Colliers 13 Invest in CEE CEE-6 Industrial Volumes (€ Bn) by Country: 2015 – H1 2024 CEE Investment Markets – Industrial sector
Slide 14: Sources of Capital Industrial 2019 – H1 2024
Colliers 14 Sources of Capital Industrial 2019 – H1 2024 Investors’ environmental considerations in 2023 (%) Share of national domestic capital investing in their own Share of CEE-6 capital investing in the region markets vs. all other capital sources 2019 – H1 2024 vs. all major capital source regi
Slide 15: Market Trends
MARKET TRENDS CEE B UCHA RES T, 2 3 RD S EPTEMB ER 2 0 2 4
Slide 16: Major players on the CEE industrial market
Colliers 16 Major players on the CEE industrial market *20% *8% *5% Owners, developers and investors into industrial space, *Approximate share of built-up, owned space as % of stock at H1 2024
Slide 17: CEE I&L Stock Evolution
Colliers 17 CEE I&L Stock Evolution Source: Colliers
Slide 18: CEE I&L Vacancy Rate
Colliers 18 CEE I&L Vacancy Rate Source: Colliers
Slide 19: CEE I&L Stock Under Construction
Colliers 19 CEE I&L Stock Under Construction Source: Colliers
Slide 20: CEE I&L New Supply Development
Colliers 20 CEE I&L New Supply Development 10% average annual growth in CEE (as % of existing space) Source: Colliers
Slide 21: CEE I&L Prime Rental Development
Colliers 21 CEE I&L Prime Rental Development (€ / sqm / month) Source: Colliers
Slide 22: CEE I&L Gross Demand
Colliers 22 CEE I&L Gross Demand Source: Colliers
Slide 23: CEE I&L Demand by Type of Lease
Colliers 23 CEE I&L Demand by Type of Lease
Slide 24: CEE I&L National market data
Colliers 24 CEE I&L National market data ` CEE Under Gross New Stock Vacancy (sqm (%, forecast) construction Take-Up Supply Warsaw, PL million) ( H1 2024) (H1 2024) Poland 33.2 8.2% ▼ 2.0 2.7 0.9 Czech 12.0 2.9% ▲ 1.3 0.6 0.3 Republic Prague, CZ Romania 7.3 5.5% ▶ 0.8 0.2 0.3 Bratislava, SK Hungary
Slide 25: CEE I&L Stock per Capita
Colliers 25 CEE I&L Stock per Capita Source: Colliers
Slide 26: I&L Value comparison
Colliers 26 I&L Value comparison Germany Prime rent (€) 9.62 Prime yield (%) 4.75 Prime capital value 2,430 Poland Prime rent (€) 4.50 Prime yield (%) 6.00 Prime capital value 900 UK Czech Republic Romania Prime rent (€) 25.22 Prime yield (%) 5.00 Prime rent (€) 7.25 Prime rent (€) 4.85 Prime capita
Slide 27: Spotlight: Romania
SPOTLIGHT ROMANIA ROBERT MIKLO DIRECTOR, ROMA NIA CA PITA L MA RKETS CEE INV ES TMENT S ERV ICES B UCHA RES T, 2 3 RD S EPTEMB ER 2 0 2 4
Slide 28: A new reality
Colliers 28 Romanian industrial market A new reality - Gross take-up flirting with at least 0.7-0.8 million sqm/year every year since 2020 vs FY levels 0.3-0.4 million sqm in most years before 2019 (reported figures, not including direct unreported deals) - Recent trends: nearshoring/reshoring, logi
Slide 29: Tenant profile – who's leasing?
Colliers 29 Romanian industrial market Tenant profile – who’s leasing? - 3PL operators make up the bulk of lion’s share of leasing activity, but are closely followed by retail and FMCG companies; in recent years, logistics starting to give way more to retailers and manufacturing/automotive - Average
Slide 30: Ambitious highway extension plan to open new areas for I&L
Colliers 30 Romanian industrial market Ambitious highway extension plan to open new areas for I&L - Major infrastructure revolution underway: 1,100 km of high-speed roads existing, c.800 km under construction, c.400 km in advanced stages of auctioning, many more planned - Investments also underway f
Slide 31: Investment picking up in 2024, I&L much more prevalent
Colliers 31 Romanian investment market Investment picking up in 2024, I&L much more prevalent
Slide 32: Thank you!
Thank you! KEVIN TURPIN ROBERT MIKLO Dir e ctor , EMEA CA PITA L MA RKETS DIRECTOR, ROMA NIA CA PITA L MA RKETS KEY A CCOUNT MA NA GEMENT L EA D | INV ES TORS CEE INV ES TMENT S ERV ICES E: KEV IN.TURPIN@ COL L IERS .COM E: ROB ERT.MIKL O@ COL L IERS .COM M: + 4 2 0 6 0 6 7 2 5 0 3 2 M: + 4 0 7 2 8
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