Reksa Dana Syariah Syailendra ETF Sharia Gold Exchange Traded Fund · IDX:XSGO
Reksa Dana Syariah Syailendra ETF Sharia Gold Exchange Traded Fund — PT Syailendra Capital — Debt Investor Presentation (September 2019)
20 slides from Reksa Dana Syariah Syailendra ETF Sharia Gold Exchange Traded Fund's debt investor presentation, September 2019
Slide 1: Monthly Bulletin September 2019
Preferred Investment Partner Monthly Bulletin September 2019 What’s Inside Indonesia Mendekati akhir bulan Agustus, Bank Fixed Income Market Selama Aug 19, yield 10YR menurun Indonesia melakukan interest cut melebihi menuju level 7.2 – 7.3% di akhir bulan. ekspektasi pasar (5.50% vs 5.75%). Hal ini
Slide 2: Section 01 Macro Update
Section 01 Macro Update 2
Slide 3: Waiting for FOMC Meeting Result
Waiting for FOMC Meeting Result With 99.2% probability, Fed will deliver 25bps rate cut this month US Implied Interest Policy Table In % of probability of policy per FOMC Meeting FOMC Meeting 0.75 - 1.00 1.00 - 1.25 1.25 - 1.50 1.50 - 1.75 1.75 - 2.00 18-Sep-19 0.8% 99.2% 30-Oct-19 0.5% 62.8% 36.7%
Slide 4: Bank Indonesia Surprised the Market
Bank Indonesia Surprised the Market Market reacts positively tower pre-emptive rate cut BI Cut Decision surprise the market IDR relatively outperform peers In 7D BI RR % In spot return % 7DRRR (%) Avg. USDIDR (%) 6.5 15,500 8 15,000 6 5.4 6.0 Appreciation 4 14,500 1.7 5.5 5.5 2 1.2 14,000 0 14,232 5
Slide 5: Government Budget for 2020
Government Budget for 2020 Still maintaining lower fiscal deficit for stability Lower Fiscal Deficit 2020 More Targeted Program rather than Ministry Spending In % of GDP In expenditure growth YoY% Deficit/Surplus % of GDP (RHS) State Spending Central Govt Spending Revenue YoY Ministry Non Ministry 3
Slide 6: Section 02 Fixed Income Update
Section 02 Fixed Income Update 6
Slide 7: Fed Fund Rate Cut Expectation
Fed Fund Rate Cut Expectation Few times more until end of 2020 Fed Fund Rate & Futures Yield Spread: US Treasury vs German Bund Numbers in %, data per Aug-19 Numbers in % Fed - Upper Fed Effective Spread UST 10y DEB 10y Futures - Dec19 Futures - Dec20 10 3.0 3.5 2.5 8 2.0 3.0 6 1.5 2.5 1.0 4 0.5 2.0
Slide 8: SBN Ownership
SBN Ownership Foreign investor is significantly adding position YTD Net New Ownership of SUN Net New Ownership of SBSN Based on ownership change YTD, in IDR tr Based on ownership change YTD, in IDR tr Dec 17 - Aug 18 Dec 18 - Aug 19 Dec 17 - Aug 18 Dec 18 - Aug 19 140 16 15 117 14 120 12 12 100 10 1
Slide 9: High Percentage of Foreign Ownership
High Percentage of Foreign Ownership Indonesia is one of the highest Foreign Holding in Local Currency Gov’t Bonds In % of ownership Source: Mandiri Research Salah satu kemungkinan penyebab kenaikan imbal hasil di Indonesia dan Afrika Selatan adalah tingginya tingkat kepemlikian obligasi pemerintah
Slide 10: Fixed Income Strategy
Fixed Income Strategy Buying opportunities return but remain cautious Expectation Related to Indonesia Bonds 10y Yield and Ownership of Foreign Investors In points of argument Yield in % Arguments for (or against) Fixed Income Markets 10YR IDR Non-CB Foreign% 9.5 41% Ekspektasi pasar terhadap suku b
Slide 11: Section 03 Equity Update
Section 03 Equity Update 11
Slide 12: Sector Update - Mining
Sector Update - Mining Price reacted due to Indonesia banning nickel ore export Nickel Ore China Import vs Nickel Spot Price In Mio MT, USD/MT 2014 2019 2014 Ni (RHS) 2019 Ni (RHS) Fakta : 12 20,000 Peraturan dilarangnya ekspor Nickel Ore akan efektif terhitung Millions of nickel contents 19,000 set
Slide 13: Sector Update - Property
Sector Update - Property What we expect from the moving of capital city Next to Come Stocks Beneficiary Budget until 2024, and Relocation Phase In list of stocks Sector Stocks Brief underlying 2019 • Design Auction Owns 620ha of JO landbank in both CTRA Samarinda and Balikpapan Property 2020 State B
Slide 14: Sector Update – New Tax Reform
Sector Update – New Tax Reform Government’s plan on tax so far Detailed of Tax Cut So Far In list of item Type Highlights To be implemented in stages, starting on 2021, a reduction from 25% to 20%. For listed companies Corporate Tax there'll be a 3% cut from normal. All Dividend Tax received from do
Slide 15: Equity Update – Net Inflow/Outflow (1)
Equity Update – Net Inflow/Outflow (1) Indonesia foreign flow highly correlated with EM Asia foreign flow T12M Net Foreign Inflow/(Outflow) Indonesia and EM Asia ex China & Malaysia In % of market cap Indonesia - net foreign buying as % of market cap (12 mths rolling) EM Asia ex-China & malaysia - n
Slide 16: Equity Update – Net Inflow/Outflow (2)
Equity Update – Net Inflow/Outflow (2) YTD foreign inflow Total Foreigners’ Net Purchase (USD mn) Highest foreign outflow in Aug19 (31-Aug) Month India Indonesia Korea Philippines Taiwan Thailand Malaysia EM Asia ex. China Jul-18 208 54 113 -49 -4 -321 -415 -414 Aug-18 -278 -106 1,652 -89 1,108 -319
Slide 17: Equity Valuation
Equity Valuation Historically speaking, valuation is still attractive JCI 5 Years PE Band JCI 5y PBV Band, ROCE in % Still a good entry point; SD refers to Std. Deviation of PE Cheap valuation from PB; SD refers to Std. Deviation of PBV 20 3.4 23 PE 5y avg. +1 SD -1 SD PBV 5y avg. +1 SD 19 3.2 22 -1
Slide 18: Equity Strategy
Equity Strategy Selectively optimistic Arguments Against Equity Market – and Why We Think Arguments for Equity Market It Is In the Price Potensi penurunan tingkat suku bunga dukung dengan Perang dagang US-Cina, walau telah dipahami oleh stabilitas USD, Fed stance cenderung tidak meningkatkan market,
Slide 19: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This document is prepared by PT Syailendra Capital (“Syailendra”) and is being supplied to you on a strictly confidential basis solely for your information and is made strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential. Accordingly, this document and its contents may not be reproduced,
Slide 20: PT Syailendra Capital
PT Syailendra Capital District 8 Treasury Tower 39th Fl. Unit 39A, SCBD Lot 28 Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53 Jakarta 12190 P. : +62 21 2793 9900 F. : +62 21 2972 1199 www.syailendracapital.com
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