Firstrand Limited · JSE:FSR
Firstrand — UBS Conference 2012
40 slides from Firstrand's conference presentation, 2012
Slide 1: Can the growth continue?
; 1 A division of FirstRand Ban k Ltd. An Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider. NCRCP20
Slide 2: Agenda
Analysing the Industry Analysing the Consumer Key Indicators WesBank’s Performance The Outlook 2
Slide 3: Number of Units Sold
60,000 50,000 Number of Units Sold 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 3 2009 2010 2011 2012
Slide 4: 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 4
Slide 5: Entry, Middle, High End Segments
180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 Entry 80,000 Middle High End 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 5
Slide 6: Naamsa vehicle sales and GDP
GDP 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 -6.00 -4.00 -2.00 Mar-80 Mar-81 Mar-82 Mar-83 Mar-84 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 GDP Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 NAAMSA Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 6 Mar-10 Mar-11 0 40000 60
Slide 7: Naamsa Y/Y change and change in Prime
50.00 40.00 30.00 20.00 10.00 0.00 2011 1981 1982 1983 1984 1986 1987 1988 1989 1991 1992 1993 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2012 -10.00 -20.00 -30.00 -40.00 -50.00 -60.00 7 Naamsa Y/Y % change Y/Y % change in Prime
Slide 8: 120000 110000 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000
120000 110000 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 8
Slide 9: Approval Rate and Number of Accounts
60 100000 Start of tightening Introduction of Overhaul of all Easing of Rec. towards end of NCA/ of all scorecards for credit Credit Appetite boom period new scorecards Score 90000 crunch 50 cards 80000 70000 40 60000 Number Accounts Approval Rate 30 50000 40000 20 30000 20000 10 10000 0 0 Jul-08 Ju
Slide 10: New and Used Percentage
80000 3.00 70000 2.50 60000 2.00 50000 Percentage 40000 1.50 New Used 30000 Used:New Ratio 1.00 20000 0.50 10000 0 0.00 10
Slide 11: Used to New Ratio
80 2.5 70 2 60 50 Percentage 1.5 40 NEW 1.17 1 30 USED Used:New Ratio 20 0.5 10 0 0 11
Slide 12: Fixed versus Linked Rate Percentage
80 70 60 50 Percentage 40 FIXED LINKED 30 20 10 0 12
Slide 13: Contract Months, New and Used
68 66 64 62 Months new 60 used 58 56 54 13
Slide 14: Percentage, Used and New
50.00 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 Percentage 25.00 Used 20.00 New 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 14
Slide 15: New and Used Vehicle Prices
R 250,000.00 R 200,000.00 R 150,000.00 USED NEW R 100,000.00 R 50,000.00 R 0.00 15
Slide 16: Used car price inflation lags new
We know how 20.00% Historically used car price inflation lags new = Year 2008 Base Period car price inflation 15.00% Line 3; Consumer Price Index (Rebased) 5.00% (A/a) eBueys 9% 0.00% 5.00% zt-das zt-unr crew TT220 TT-da: tr Traew ot2ea or-das o-unr orew 6020a 60-das 60-unr soueW 3029a so-das so-unr
Slide 17: Agenda
Analysing the Industry Analysing the Consumer Key Indicators WesBank’s Performance The Outlook 17
Slide 18: Good Standing and Impaired Records
12 11 10 9 Million 8 Good Standing (#) Impaired records (#) 7 6 5 4 18
Slide 19: Enquiries by Consumers Seeking Credit
16 15 14 13 12 Million 11 Enquiries 10 Consumers Seeking Credit 9 (Mil) 8 7 6 19
Slide 20: Percentage by Income Band
40 35 30 25 Percentage R0 to R9 000 p.m. 20 R9 001 to R15 000 p.m. R15 001 to R21 000 p.m 15 R21 001 to R30 000 p.m R30 000 and higher 10 5 0 20
Slide 21: Percentage by Income Band
35 30 25 Percentage 20 R0 to R9 000 p.m. R9 001 to R15 000 p.m. 15 R15 001 to R21 000 p.m R21 001 to R30 000 p.m R30 000 and higher 10 5 0 21
Slide 22: -50 -100
200 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 22
Slide 23: WesBank Repossessions
3000 1000 1500 2000 2500 500 0 93 Dec-07 940 236 Jan-08 1 633 346 Feb-08 1 777 119 Mar-08 1 592 98 Apr-08 1 804 369371402 May-08 1 983 Jun-08 2 142 477497 95 Jul-08 2 350 565 Aug-08 2 203 59 Sep-08 2 072 441424 Oct-08 1 857 55 Nov-08 1 864 326338 Dec-08 1 473 46 Jan-09 1 951 200211 Feb-09 1 872 260
Slide 24: Household debt and debt-service cost
nk ’ : " We know how Household deb _ Percentage of household disposable income Household debt Dabt-service cast | 1990 i] jj i992 1994 1 19% | 1998 | 2000 jj 2002 i 2004 |_| 2006 | 2008 |_| 2010 | 2012
Slide 25: Agenda
Analysing the Industry Analysing the Consumer Key Indicators WesBank’s Performance The Outlook 25
Slide 26: Level of Activity
7 Very Active 6.5 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.0 Active 6 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.1 5.4 Not Active 5.1 5 50% 4.7 4.7 4.7 30% 42% 30% 4.4 29% 34% 38% 56% 46% 39% 39% Not Very 21% 19% 16% 4.2 4.3 59% Active 20% 14% 12% 10% Level of Activity 4 10% 3 71% 2 79% 81% 84% 90% 86% 70% 50% 70% 80% 88% 90% 66% 62% 58% 54%
Slide 27: WesBank Vehicle Market Activity Indicator July 2012
WesBank Vehicle Market Activity Indicator July 2012 Which of the following vehicle markets would you describe as being the most active currently? Which of the following vehicle markets do you anticipate will have more activity over the next 3 months? 100.0% Used Most Active New Most Active The Same
Slide 28: Agenda
Analysing the Industry Analysing the Consumer Key Indicators WesBank’s Performance The Outlook 28
Slide 29: WesBank & TFS market share, BA900
WesBank & MFC / Standard ABSA Other Total TFS Nedbank Bank BA900 R97.79b R67.77b R44.60b R51.7b R2.87b R264.75b (2011) BA900 R114.02b R71.84b R51.99b R54.07b R4.22b R296.16b (2012) BA 900 Percentage Marketshare ‘11 vs ‘12 45.00 38.50 40.00 36.94 2011 35.00 2012 30.00 25.60 24.26 25.00 19.53 18.26 20
Slide 30: WesBank, Standard Bank, ABSA
45 40 35 30 WesBank 25 Standard Bank ABSA 20 Nedbank/MFC Cash 15 TFS 10 5 0 30
Slide 31: WesBank, Standard Bank, ABSA
40 35 30 25 WesBank Standard Bank 20 ABSA NedBank/MFC 15 Cash TFS 10 5 0 31
Slide 32: Normalised earnings 5Y CAGR
3000 Normalised earnings 5Y R' million CAGR Includes 2500 purchase of Imperial book 22% 2000 (MFC) 1500 11% 1000 60% 500 (Inorganic growth) 0 FSR *STB *NED *ABSA (8%) -500 Including loans -1000 32 YOY Growth 58% 26% 39% 24%
Slide 33: PBT and Normalised PBT
4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 33 PBT Normalised PBT (Excl Extraordinaries)
Slide 34: WesBank Total Arrears
WESBANK TOTAL ARREARS - % NUMBER TO BOOK 8.00 7.00 1+ 6.00 2+ 5.00 4.00 3+ 3.00 6+ 2.00 1.00 0.00
Slide 35: WesBank Net Promoter Score
WesBank Net Promoter Score 70 International Benchmark 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Slide 36: WesBank - We know how
# j @ WesBank a ) F a hH We know how y ve -y - = ers ) WE iP CaliCinOalisidaGl ‘ion
Slide 37: Agenda
Analysing the Industry Analysing the Consumer Key Indicators International Mobility Study WesBank’s Performance The Outlook 37
Slide 38: Naamsa and WesBank Total Market Prediction
WesBank Naamsa Total Market Revised 2011 Prediction Prediction Historical low interest rates 2012 Below CPI car price increases Replacement cycle reducing Passenger 399 200 424 152 6% 437 500 9% Extensive Dealer & OEM LCV 152 534 160 161 5% 160 000 5% incentives programmes Commercial 26 248 28 347 8
Slide 39: Outlook: robust demand for vehicle finance
•Robust demand for vehicle finance continues •Replacement cycle continuing to decrease •New vehicle price increases to continue below National CPI •Customers continue to move from Used to Entry Level New •High end of the market still buoyant •Minimal job losses for 2012, job creation more likely •LS
Slide 40: Outlook: interest rates and dealer confidence
•Interest rates to remain within narrow band for the foreseeable future •Dealer Confidence remains positive • Modest growth in vehicle sales off a high base •Risks mainly external •Growth opportunities for WesBank moderating but definitely not in ‘Ex’ category