First Citizens Bancshares, Inc. · NASDAQ:FCNCA

First Citizens Bancshares — Investor Presentation (July 2025)

28 slides from First Citizens Bancshares's investor presentation, Jul 29, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Monthly Market Update

    Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP Chief Investment Officer Phillip Neuhart | SVP Monthly Market Update Director of Market and Economic Research Recorded on July 29, 2025

  2. Slide 2: What are we going to cover?

    What are we going to cover? 1. Economic Update: Growth Outlook | Tariff Update | Inflation & Labor Market | Fed Policy | Consumer Spending 2. Market Update: Equity Markets | Valuations | Fixed Income

  3. Slide 3: Economic & Policy Update

    Economic & Policy Update Growth Outlook | Tariff Update | Inflation & Labor Market | Fed Policy | Consumer Spending

  4. Slide 4: Economic Forecasts Have Weakened Across the Board vs. Earlier This Year

    Economic Forecasts Have Weakened Across the Board vs. Earlier This Year Economic Activity Labor Market Inflation GDP Growth New Jobs per Month Consumer Price Index +2.1% +1.5% +121,000 +105,000 2.5% 2.9% Expectation for 2025, Today’s Expectation for 2025, Today’s Expectation for 2025, Today’s start

  5. Slide 5: Most Forecasters See 2025 Weakness As a Temporary Growth Slowdown

    Most Forecasters See 2025 Weakness As a Temporary Growth Slowdown US Real GDP Growth and Median Professional Forecast Probability of Recession, Next Twelve Months GDP growth Potential growth rate Median Professional Forecast 5.0% 100% 90% 4.0% 80% 70% 3.0% Consensus forecast 60% 2.0% 50% 40% 1.0% 30

  6. Slide 6: After Months of Uncertainty, Tariff Rates Are Likely Settling North of 15%

    After Months of Uncertainty, Tariff Rates Are Likely Settling North of 15% Estimated Average Effective Tariff Rate on US Imports 30% Projected as of August 1 "Liberation Day" 25% Electronics/ semis exemption Aug 1: 20% "Reciprocal" rates may reset at 15%, from 10% Metals tariffs 15% up 2x to 50% Chi

  7. Slide 7: US Importers Poised to Pay Hundreds of Billions per Year in New Taxes

    US Importers Poised to Pay Hundreds of Billions per Year in New Taxes Customs Duties 400 Billions of dollars, annualized 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Treasury Department, Bloomberg. Data through June 2025. 7

  8. Slide 8: It May Be Hard to Justify Rate Cuts With Today's Labor Market and Inflation

    It May Be Hard to Justify Rate Cuts With Today’s Labor Market and Inflation US Unemployment Rate 10% Inflation: US Consumer Price Index Apr. 2020: 11% 14.8% 9% Headline CPI 10% 8% CPI Ex-Food and Energy 9% 7% 6% 8% Average since 1960: 5.9% 5% 7% 4% 6% 3% 5% June 2025: 2% 4.1% 4% 1% 3% 0% 1960 1970 1

  9. Slide 9: Markets Have Modest Expectations for Rate Cuts Starting Later This Year

    Markets Have Modest Expectations for Rate Cuts Starting Later This Year Federal Funds Rate and Market-Implied Path 6% Observed Market pricing 5% Today: 4.4% 4% End-2025: 3.9% 3% End-2026: 3.2% 2% 1% 0% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: Bloomberg, First Citizens Wealth. Data as of 7/28/2025.

  10. Slide 10: Payroll Growth Has Been Decently Strong So Far This Year

    Payroll Growth Has Been Decently Strong So Far This Year Monthly Growth in US Payrolls, Thousands 1000 Total 900 Private sector 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Jan 21 Jul 21 Jan 22 Jul 22 Jan 23 Jul 23 Jan 24 Jul 24 Jan 25 Source: Department of Labor, Bloomberg. Data as of June 2025. 10

  11. Slide 11: A Jump in WARN Act Notices Suggests Recorded Layoffs Could Increase

    A Jump in WARN Act Notices Suggests Recorded Layoffs Could Increase Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act Notices, 3-month Average 50,000 45,000 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source: Department of Labor,

  12. Slide 12: Labor Market Data Also Capture Retirements and Structural Factors

    Labor Market Data Also Capture Retirements and Structural Factors Millions of people Social Security: Retirement Beneficiaries 60 6% Number of beneficiaries, left axis Growth, y/y, right axis 50 5% 40 4% 30 3% 20 2% 10 1% 0 0% 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Depar

  13. Slide 13: Consumer Expenditures Are Holding Up, Still Led by Services Spending

    Consumer Expenditures Are Holding Up, Still Led by Services Spending Personal Consumption Expenditures 50% Percent change, year-over-year 40% Services 20-year average: Goods Services: 4.9% 30% Goods: 4.1% 20% 10% +5.3% 0% +3.0% -10% -20% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Department of

  14. Slide 14: Market Update

    Market Update Equity Markets | Valuations | Fixed Income

  15. Slide 15: Global Asset Prices Have Recovered After the April Selloff

    Global Asset Prices Have Recovered After the April Selloff Total Market Returns As of 7/25/2025 Feb. 19 Since YTD US peak to Feb. 19 peak 2025 Apr. 8 trough US Equities -19.3% +4.1% +9.0% Intl. Developed -8.5% +12.8% +21.7% Equities Emerging Market -11.4% +12.5% +19.2% Equities Aggregate Fixed +1.0%

  16. Slide 16: The S&P 500 Has Staged a Terrific Rebound

    The S&P 500 Has Staged a Terrific Rebound S&P 500 Index 6500 +4% 6000 5500 -8% 5000 -5% -19% 4500 4000 -10% Total return since 10/12/2022: +84% -25% 3500 Jan '22 May '22 Sep '22 Jan '23 May '23 Sep '23 Jan '24 May '24 Sep '24 Jan '25 May '25 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 7/25/2025. 16

  17. Slide 17: S&P 500 Valuations Are Robust

    S&P 500 Valuations Are Robust S&P 500 Next Twelve Months Price-to-Earnings Ratio 28X 24X 20X +1 Standard Deviation 16X Average 12X -1 Standard Deviation 8X 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Source: Strategas. Data as of 6/30/2025. 17

  18. Slide 18: Corporate Earnings

    Corporate Earnings  2025 estimated growth is 9.6% 19% Estimated Next 12-Month S&P 500 Operating Margin 17.8% 18%  2026 estimated growth is 13.9% 17% 16%  Average growth since 1950 is 7.6% 15% 14% 13% 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source: FactSet, Bloomberg. Data as of 7/25/2025. 18

  19. Slide 19: EPS Revisions Have Rebounded

    EPS Revisions Have Rebounded Upward Earnings Estimate Revisions Pct. Total (3-Month Average) 80% 70% S&P 500 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22 '25 Source: Strategas. Data through June 2025. 19

  20. Slide 20: S&P 500 Price Target

    S&P 500 Price Target Next Twelve-Month S&P 500 Price Target Percent Next Twelve Months Change from Price Level 7/25/25 Bear 4,700 -26.4% Base 6,400 0.2% Bull 6,950 8.8% Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, First Citizens Wealth 20

  21. Slide 21: S&P 500 Annual Returns Are Rarely at the Long-Term Average

    S&P 500 Annual Returns Are Rarely at the Long-Term Average 16 Distribution of S&P 500 Index Returns, 1926 - 2024 14 14 Annualized Compound Return: +10.4% Average Annual Return: +12.3% 12 11 10 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 < -12%-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12

  22. Slide 22: The Distribution of S&P 500 Returns Is Weighted to the Upside

    The Distribution of S&P 500 Returns Is Weighted to the Upside Distribution of S&P 500 Index Returns, 1926 - 2024 50 Annualized Compound Return: +10.4% Average Annual Return: +12.3% 40 38% 35% 30 26% 20 10 0 < 0% 0 - 20% > 20% Source: Dimensional Funds 22

  23. Slide 23: Fixed Income Is Still Offering Attractive Yield Relative to Post-GFC Cycle

    Fixed Income Is Still Offering Attractive Yield Relative to Post-GFC Cycle Fixed Income Yields Aggregate Bond Index 18 Municipal Bond Index 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 Source: Bloomberg. First Citizens Wealth 23

  24. Slide 24: Bond Spreads Show Risk Levels Are Low for Corporate Borrowers

    Bond Spreads Show Risk Levels Are Low for Corporate Borrowers US Fixed Income 1,200 Option Adjusted Spreads in Basis Points High Yield Spread 1,000 Investment Grade Spread 800 600 400 200 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 7/25/2025. 24

  25. Slide 25: The Treasury Yield Curve Has Steepened This Year

    The Treasury Yield Curve Has Steepened This Year US Treasury Yield Curve 5.2% 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.5% 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9% 3.6% As of Latest date - July 25 3.4% Dec. 31, 2024 3.2% 1 3 6 1 2 3 5 7 10 20 30 MM M Yr Yr Yr Y

  26. Slide 26: Net Interest Expense Is Poised to Rise to Very High Levels

    Net Interest Expense Is Poised to Rise to Very High Levels Federal Government Net Interest Expense as a Share of GDP Forecast 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Source: Congressional Budget Office 26

  27. Slide 27: Market & Economic Research

    Market & Economic Research Brent Ciliano, SVP Chief Investment Officer In Brief | A look at the week ahead in under two minutes every Monday morning Phillip Neuhart, SVP Q&A Videos | Monthly conversations covering 2-3 of the top Director of Market and questions we’re hearing from clients Economic Re

  28. Slide 28: Authors

    Authors Important Disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or insurance product, and should not be

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