First Citizens Bancshares, Inc. · NASDAQ:FCNCA
First Citizens Bancshares — Investor Presentation (April 2026)
31 slides from First Citizens Bancshares's investor presentation, Apr 29, 2026
Slide 1: Making Sense: Market Update April 2026
FirstCitizensWealthTM Making ~ense Market Update I April 2026 Phillip Neuhart Head of Market and Economic Research Blake Taylor Market and Economic Recorded on April 29, 2026 Research Analyst
Slide 2: What are we going to cover?
Making Sense Iii FirstCitizensWealth,M What are we going to cover? 1. Special update: War in the Middle East 2. Economic update: Growth expectations I Labor market I Inflation I Artificial intelligence 3. Market update: Equity markets 11 Fixed income I Interest rates
Slide 3: Special update: War in the Middle East
Making Sense Iii FirstCitizensWealth,M Special update: War in the Middle East
Slide 4: The Middle East war is causing the largest oil supply disruption in history
The Middle East war is causing the largest oil supply disruption in history Number of Crude Oil Tankers Crossing the Strait of Hormuz 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 = 7-day average 10 5 -Daily o Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: Bloomberg, First
Slide 5: US equities appear to have moved past the energy-price shock
US equities appear to have moved past the energy-price shock Oil Price vs. S&P 500 Performance Index, 2/27/2026 = 100 Index, 2/27/2026 = 100 -50 -S&P 500 Index (right axis) 5 - Oil Price (left axis) -40 -30 3 -20 Feb. 28: 2 Start of Conflict -10 1 0 0 Apr. 7: 10 Ceasefire agreement -1 20 -2 30 -3 40
Slide 6: Earnings expectations have moved higher despite geopolitical risk
Earnings expectations have moved higher despite geopolitical risk Change in Next-Twelve Months Blended Forward Earnings Estimate Percent 4/28/2026: 120 days later: +6.1% +5.5% 5 4 3 2 1 -Start of Iran war: 2/27/2026 - Liberation Day: 4/1/2025 -1 -2 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86
Slide 7: Fuel prices have surged, but the economy is less energy intensive today
Fuel prices have surged, but the economy is less energy intensive today Retail Gasoline & Diesel Price Gasoline and Motor Fuel Spending Share of Disposable $/gal. Personal Income 6.00 Percent ,.. -Average Retail Gasoline Price -Average Diesel Price 4.5 5.50 5.00 4.0 4.50 3.5 4.00 3.0 3.50 2.5 3.00 2
Slide 8: Economic update
Making Sense Iii FirstCitizensWealth,M Economic update
Slide 9: Forecasters see little change to their already optimistic growth outlooks
Forecasters see little change to their already optimistic growth outlooks 2026 Real GDP Growth United States Recession Probability Median Professional Forecast Median Professional Forecast Percent, y/y % 2.5 100 - 2.4 90 2.3 80 2.2 2.1 70 2.0 60 1.9 50 1.8 1.7 40 1.6 1.5 30 20 ,_ 1.4 Mar May Jul Sep
Slide 10: Household sentiment is at a record low
Household sentiment is at a record low University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: University of Michigan, National Federation of Independent Business, First Citizens Bank Data as of
Slide 11: Workers are reporting significantly weaker hiring prospects
Workers are reporting significantly weaker hiring prospects Expected Probability of Finding a Job in the Next 3 Months if Labor Market Differential Job Is Lost Today Net Percentage of Respondents Reporting Jobs Are Plentiful vs. Hard to Get % % 65 50 40 60 30 20 55 10 0 l--t---.------::::a.---,F--.-
Slide 12: Inflation-adjusted wage growth has been near zero for small businesses
Inflation-adjusted wage growth has been near zero for small businesses Hourly Wage Growth, Inflation-Adjusted % 5 - Bureau of Labor Statistics - Paychex small business data 4 3 -5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Paychex,
Slide 13: Job growth has slowed to a stall...and to a new steady-state pace
Job growth has slowed to a stall...and to a new steady-state pace Number of New Payroll Jobs Created per Month New jobs, thousand 600 - Estimated "breakeven rate" adjusting for population -Actual monthly job creation 500 400 300 200 100 -100 ,.._____________________________________________ Jan Apr J
Slide 14: Future population growth is expected to be driven only by net migration
Future population growth is expected to be driven only by net migration United States Population Growth % 1.50 - -Total ■ Net migration ■ Native-born population growth 1.25 1.00 I I \ I \ '' \ \ 0.75 \ I \ I '' \ I 0.50 I ' 0.25 - - - - ........ 0.00 -0.25 -0.50 ,..__ _______________________________
Slide 15: Forecasters see a temporary bump in consumer price inflation
Forecasters see a temporary bump in consumer price inflation Inflation Rates 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 .. . 2 1 0 -consumer Price Index (CPI) :-:-:- Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) -1 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Bu
Slide 16: Markets now see inflation at about 3% for the next years
Markets now see inflation at about 3% for the next 2 years Market Inflation Expectations % • 3.75 3.50 . J lt'j • 3.25 1 Year Inflation Swap Rate 3.00 \I 2 Year Inflation Swap 2.75 /. \ I I l \I \I \ It \I 2.50 2.25 2.00 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2024 2025 2
Slide 17: Commodity markets see oil prices moving lower but remaining elevated
Commodity markets see oil prices moving lower but remaining elevated Brent Crude Oil Prices Dollars per barrel 170 -April 27 (Latest) April 7 - •April 7 160 spot price: - February 27 $144.46 Futures prices 150 (all-time high) 140 130 120 110 --- 100 .... .... .... ...... ... ... ... ... ... ... -- 9
Slide 18: Markets no longer expect the Fed to cut interest rates this year
Markets no longer expect the Fed to cut interest rates this year Federal Funds Rate & Market-Implied Path 6 5 March 2026: 3.6% Market pricing - April 28 4 3 Market pricing - February 27 2 1 2026 2027 Federal Reserve projections -25 bp -25 bp Market Pricing 0 bp 0 bp o -------------------------------
Slide 19: Tech companies are poised to spend $1 trillion per year on AI capex
Tech companies are poised to spend $1 tr1·11·ion per year on Al capex Capex Spen d'mg on Generative Al Dollars of annual spending, trillion 1.50 '/ As of Apr. 2026 Estimated cumulative Capex ■As of Jan. 2026 spend"mg (2026-2032) $7 .5 Trillion 1.25 pr.2026 Estimate: $774bn f an. 2026 Estimate: $665b
Slide 20: The AI buildout is potentially the most expensive project in 150 years
The Al buildout is potentially the most expensive project in 150 years Capex Spending as a Share of GDP 6% 4.9% 5% 4% 2.9% 3% 1.9% 2% 1.1% 0.8% 0.9% 1% 0.4% 0% Railroads Electrification Marshall Plan Interstate Apollo Mission Telecom Al buildout (1870-1872) (1923-1927) (1948-1951) Highways (1963 - 1
Slide 21: Market update
Making Sense Iii FirstCitizensWealth,M Market update
Slide 22: Estimates point to robust corporate earnings and margin growth for 2026
Estimates point to robust corporate earnings and margin growth for 2026 Estimated Next 12-Month S&P 500 Operating Margin 21.0% ■ CY 2025 estimated growth is 13.6% 19.9% 20.0% Ql 2026 estimated growth is 15.1% 19.0% 18.0% ■ CY 2026 estimated growth is 18.6% 17.0% 16.0% 15.0% ■ Average growth since 19
Slide 23: After broadening in Q1, equity returns are again concentrated at the top
After broadening in Ql, equity returns are again concentrated at the top Price Return Since Market Bottom During Iran War (Mar. 30) Year to Date Price Return Percent Percent -International Equities (ACWI Ex-U.S.) 15 22.5 -U.S Small Cap (Russell 2000) 20.0 10 - - S&P 500 Equal Weighted lnde 17.5 -S&P
Slide 24: Forward valuations have recovered as the conflict persists
Forward valuations have recovered as the conflict persists 12 Month Forward Price-to-Earnings Ratio 24 Start of Iran War 23 Feb.27,2026 Global Tariff Announcement 21.3x Apr.2,2025 20.Sx 22 21 20 19 18 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2025 2026 Source: Bloomberg, First
Slide 25: Global corporate fundamentals are strong and improving
Global corporate fundamentals are strong and improving 250 Estimated 12-Month Forward Earnings Per Share (EPS) 35 -Russell 3000 EPS Est. (12Mo Forward, LHS) -MSCI ACWI ex US EPS est. (12Mo Forward, RHS) 30 200 25 150 20 15 100 10 50 5 0 ---------------------------------- 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2
Slide 26: We are cautiously constructive on the S&P 500
We are cautiously constructive on the S&P 500 Next Twelve-Month S&P 500 Price Target Next Twelve Months Percent Change Price Level from 4/28/2026 Bear 5,300 -25.8% Base 7,300 2.3% Bull 7,900 10.7% Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, First Citizens Wealth 26
Slide 27: Interest rates have stepped higher in recent weeks
Interest rates have stepped higher in recent weeks Fixed Income Indices Latest 2/27/2026 12/31/2025 2-Year Treasury 3.8% 3.4% 3.5% 10-Year Treasury 4.3% 3.9% 4.2% Aggregate Bond 4.6% 4.2% 4.3% Intermediate Government/Credit 4.2% 3.8% 3.9% Municipal Bond 3.6% 3.3% 3.6% Investment Grade Corporate Bond
Slide 28: Federal government finances are on an unsustainable path
Federal government finances are on an unsustainable path Federal Net Interest Expense 22.5 ::-:-:- As a share of revenues :-:-:- As a share of outlays 20.0 ... 17.5 15.0 .. 12.5 10.0 5.0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: U.S. Congressional Budget Office (C
Slide 29: The 10-year Treasury yield has remained elevated despite Fed rate cuts
The 10-year Treasury yield has remained elevated despite Fed rate cuts US 10-Year Treasury Yield - 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2024: 2025: Fed cuts rates Fed cuts rates 2.0 by 1.00% by 0.75% 1.5 1.0 0.5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: Bloomberg Data as of: 4/28/2
Slide 30: Making Sense
Ii First CitizensWealth,. Making Sense Brent Ciliano, SVP In Brief I A look at the week ahead in under two minutes Chief Investment Officer every Monday morning Q&As I Monthly conversations covering 2-3 of the top questions we're hearing from clients Phillip Neuhart, SVP Head of Market and Market up
Slide 31: Authors and Important Disclosures
Making Sense lii FirstCitizensWealth,. Authors Important Disclosures Brent Ciliano, CFA I SVP, Chief Investment Officer This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, Capital Management Group I First Citizens Bank recommendation, or
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