Ameren Corporation · NYSE:AEE
Ameren — EEI Financial Conference 2023
49 slides from Ameren's conference presentation, Nov 13, 2023
Slide 1: Transforming For Our Future
Transforming For Our Future EEI Financial Conference November 13-14, 2023
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented weather-normalized and core earnings per share, which are non-GAAP financial measures and may not be comparable to those of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information is include
Slide 3: Company Description
Company Description Fully rate-regulated electric and natural gas utility Ameren Businesses 2.4M electric Ameren Missouri customers • Electric transmission, distribution, and generation business and a natural gas distribution business in Missouri regulated by MoPSC 0.9M gas • Serves 1.2 million elec
Slide 4: Our Value Proposition for Customers, Shareholders and the Environment
Our Value Proposition for Customers, Shareholders and the Environment Attractive dividend Strong long-term and long-term dividend growth Attractive total growth outlook outlook return potential • Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR 2023- • Annualized equivalent dividend rate of • Track record of delivering str
Slide 5: Our Sustainability Value Proposition
Our Sustainability Value Proposition ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP SOCIAL IMPACT • Accelerating transition to a cleaner and more diverse portfolio • Delivered value to customers in 2022 while focused on safety ‒ Target carbon reductions from 2005 levels: 60% by 2030; 85% by 2040; net ‒ Ameren has ranked
Slide 6: Strong Track Record of EPS and Dividend Growth
Strong Track Record of EPS and Dividend Growth Weather-Normalized Core Dividends Paid per Share3 Total Shareholder Earnings per Diluted Share1 and Payout as a % of WN EPS Return $4.50 $4.25 +92% or $2.60 ~+48% 2013 to 2022 $4.40 ~7.5% CAGR 2013 to 2022 $2.52 | 58% $4.00 $2.40 2013 to 2022 $4.00 220%
Slide 7: Our Strategic Plan
Our Strategic Plan INVEST ENHANCE OPTIMIZE Enhance regulatory Invest in rate regulated Optimize operating frameworks and advocate energy infrastructure performance for responsible policies To capitalize on opportunities to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment EEI Fina
Slide 8: Four Constructive Regulatory Frameworks
Four Constructive Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated: Formula ratemaking Ameren • Allowed ROE is 10.52%, includes MISO participation adder of 50 basis points; ~56% average equity ratio Transmission • Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation ICC-regula
Slide 9: Expect to Deliver Strong Long-Term EPS and Dividend Growth
Expect to Deliver Strong Long-Term EPS and Dividend Growth • Expect 2023 EPS in a range of $4.30 to $4.451 • Remain on track to deliver strong long-term earnings growth – Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from 2023-20272 Original 2023E EPS and • Using original 2023 EPS guidance range midpoint of $4.35 as the
Slide 10: Strong Rate Base Growth in All Regulatory Jurisdictions
Strong Rate Base Growth in All Regulatory Jurisdictions Increased five-year infrastructure investment plan by $2.4B reflecting increased investment in all segments1,2 $19.7 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure Investment 2022 to 2027E Regulated Five-Year Rate 2023-20271 Infrastructure Rate Base3,4 Ba
Slide 11: Expected 2023-2027 Funding Plan
Expected 2023-2027 Funding Plan1 • Cash from Operations – Return of capital through depreciation in rates – Return on equity-financed portion of rate base – ~$1.2 to $1.3 billion of income tax deferrals and tax asset utilization • Income tax deferrals driven primarily by capital expenditures • Inclu
Slide 12: Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filed with MoPSC
Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filed with MoPSC Sept. 2023 Least-cost approach to reliably meet customer energy needs in an environmentally responsible manner • Carbon emissions1: Targets substantial reductions; 60% by 2030, 85% by 2040 and net-zero by 2045 • Coal: All energy centers retired by 2
Slide 13: Missouri IRP Preferred Plans
Missouri IRP Preferred Plans Key Actions 2022 IRP2 2023 IRP2 Specifics Carbon Emission Reduction1 60% by 2030 • Includes both Scope 1 and 2 emissions, including other greenhouse gas 85% by 2040 No change emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and sulfur hexafluoride Net Zero by 2045 Coal Retirements 3,
Slide 14: Least-Cost Approach for Reliability, Affordability and the Environment
Least-Cost Approach for Reliability, Affordability and the Environment Sources of Energy • Targets net-zero carbon emissions by 20451 while meeting customers’ rising needs and expectations for reliable, affordable and clean energy sources • Includes balanced mix of energy sources to support continue
Slide 15: Ameren's Pathway to Carbon Emission Reduction Goals
Ameren’s Pathway to Carbon Emission Reduction Goals Science based targets consistent with 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement • Ameren’s carbon emission reduction goals1 (60% by 2030, 85% Emission Reduction Pathways by 2040, and net-zero by 2045) are science based and Consistent with Paris Agreement
Slide 16: Ameren Missouri Solar Projects
Ameren Missouri Solar Projects Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, shareholders and the environment Huck Cass Bowling Boomtown2,3 Split Rail Vandalia Finn1,2 County Green Facility size 200-MW 150-MW 300-MW 150-MW 50-MW 50-MW Agreement Development Build-transfe
Slide 17: MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Roadmap
MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Roadmap Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, shareholders and the environment • In July 2022, MISO approved Tranche 1 projects of ~$10 billion – $1.8 billion1 assigned to Ameren; planning, design work and procurement underw
Slide 18: Illinois Energy Legislation
Illinois Energy Legislation Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy and economic policies Ameren Transmission • Transmission Efficiency and Cooperation Law, HB 34451, passed by General Assembly in May 2023 – Provides incumbent utilities, including Ameren, the right of f
Slide 19: Investing in the Energy Grid
Investing in the Energy Grid • Investing to modernize energy grid, making it cleaner, safer, more reliable, resilient and secure – Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan and Ameren Illinois MYRP filed with the MoPSC and ICC, 2022-2027E Regulated respectively, supporting infrastructure investment to moder
Slide 20: Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade
Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade1 Modernizing the grid and investing in cleaner generation $48B+ Investment Plan 2023-2027 ($ billions) Strong Pipeline of Regulated $19.7 Infrastructure Investments $3.8 2023-2032 $1.9 • Modernize electric and gas transmission an
Slide 21: Financial and Regulatory Update
Financial and Regulatory Update Ameren Missouri’s Montgomery Community Solar Energy Center in service March 2022
Slide 22: 2023 Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sep. 30
2023 Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sep. 30 ↑ Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution earnings — Increased investments in infrastructure; higher allowed ROE ↑ Ameren Transmission earnings — Increased investments in infrastructure YTD Diluted EPS ↑ Parent Company and Other results Sep. 2022 vs
Slide 23: 2023 EPS Guidance and Select Balance of the Year Considerations
2023 EPS Guidance and Select Balance of the Year Considerations1 • Expect 2023 diluted EPS guidance range of $4.30 to $4.45 2023E • Select considerations for Q4 2023 EPS compared to Q4 2022 EPS Diluted EPS – Ameren Missouri new electric service rates effective July 9, 2023: Q4: ~+$0.04 $4.45 – Amere
Slide 24: Select 2024 Earnings Considerations Compared to 2023
Select 2024 Earnings Considerations Compared to 20231 ↑ New electric service rates effective July 9, 2023: ~+$0.082 Ameren ↑ Higher investments in infrastructure eligible for PISA Missouri ↑ Return to normal weather; assumes normal weather for Q4 2023: ~+$0.02 ↑ Higher average estimated rate base: ~
Slide 25: Financing, Credit Ratings and External Debt Balances
Credit Ratings2 and Financing External Debt Balances Debt Financing • On Mar. 13, 2023, Ameren Missouri issued $500 million of 5.45% first mortgage bonds due 2053 – Proceeds used to fund capital expenditures and refinance short term debt As of Sep. 30, 2023 $ in millions Moody's S&P • On May 31, 202
Slide 26: Long-Term Debt Maturities and Interest Rates
Long-Term Debt Maturities and Interest Rates Issuer 20231 2024 2025 2026 2027 $450 million 2.50% $350 million 3.65% $500 million 1.95% Ameren Corp. senior unsecured notes senior unsecured notes senior unsecured notes $350 million 3.50% $400 million 2.95% Ameren Missouri senior secured notes senior s
Slide 27: Missouri Electric Regulatory Matters
Missouri Electric Regulatory Matters Electric Distribution • In June 2023, Commission approved a stipulation and agreement with MoPSC Staff, Office of Public Counsel and certain intervenors for a $140 million annual revenue increase1 – Allowed ROE, capital structure2 and rate base3 not specified – C
Slide 28: Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan
Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan Electric Distribution • Multi-Year Rate Plan (MYRP) filed with ICC in Jan. 2023; request driven by infrastructure investment and cost of capital – On Sep. 6, ICC Staff recommended cumulative increase of $322 million in revenues – On Sep. 22, Ameren Illinois requested cu
Slide 29: Illinois Regulatory Matters
Illinois Regulatory Matters Electric Distribution • In November 2023, filed updated request with ICC for $117 million reconciliation adjustment to the 2022 revenue requirement reflecting actual costs – Based on 2022 year-end rate base, ROE and equity ratio – In Aug., ICC Staff recommended a reconcil
Slide 30: 2023-2024 Winter Season and Natural Gas Prices
2023-2024 Winter Season and Natural Gas Prices Working to keep bills as low as possible Ameren Illinois and Ameren Missouri Natural Gas businesses • ~91% of natural gas hedged based on normal seasonal sales • 100% of natural gas volumetrically hedged based on maximum seasonal sales • Ameren Illinois
Slide 31: FERC Regulatory Matters
FERC Regulatory Matters Ameren Transmission • In Apr. 2021, FERC issued supplemental NOPR that would remove incentive adder for utilities that have been members of an RTO for three years or more – Current allowed base ROE of 10.02% (10.52% including 50 bps RTO participation adder) – 50 bps change in
Slide 32: Federal Energy Legislation
Federal Energy Legislation • Inflation Reduction Act enacted in Aug. 2022 – Enhances affordability of the clean energy transition for customers in Missouri and Illinois • Ameren Missouri expects to generate more than ~$1 billion1 of tax credits for customers by 2030 as result of PTCs and ITCs relate
Slide 33: Summary
Summary Expect to deliver strong earnings growth in 2023 with guidance in a range of $4.30 to $4.45 per diluted share1 Successfully executing our strategy; well-positioned for future growth • Focused on delivering a cleaner and sustainable energy future in a responsible manner Strong long-term growt
Slide 34: APPENDIX
APPENDIX
Slide 35: Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with MoPSC
Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with MoPSC on Feb. 16 Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, shareholders and the environment • $1.6 billion invested in 2022 to support reliability, address aged infrastructure and provide clean energy to the customers and
Slide 36: Our Focus on Delivering a Cleaner Energy Future Responsibly
Our Focus on Delivering a Cleaner Energy Future Responsibly While providing safe, reliable and affordable energy to customers • Climate risk management and mitigation – Targeting significant reductions in greenhouse gases – Implementing robust customer energy efficiency programs – Investing to moder
Slide 37: Electric Vehicle Adoption and Infrastructure Development Programs
Electric Vehicle Adoption and Infrastructure Development Programs Enhance regulatory frameworks and advocate for responsible policies to benefit our customers, shareholders and the environment Ameren Illinois • ICC approved Beneficial Electrification Plan in Mar. 2023 – Provides ~$65 million through
Slide 38: Focused on Disciplined Cost Management to Drive Affordability
Focused on Disciplined Cost Management to Drive Affordability Optimize operating performance to benefit of our customers, shareholders and the environment • Track record of disciplined cost management – Expect flat operations and maintenance expenses in 2023 as compared to 2022 – Target flat operati
Slide 39: Building a Brighter and Cleaner Energy Future
Building a Brighter and Cleaner Energy Future Innovative Programs to Meet Customer Needs and Rising Expectations Utility-owned solar Subscription program generation in MO that available to MO residential benefits diverse Neighborhood Community and small business communities with jobs training, solar
Slide 40: MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Roadmap
MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Roadmap Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers, shareholders and the environment Ameren Transmission • In Apr. 2021, MISO issued report outlining preliminary long-range transmission planning roadmap through 203
Slide 41: Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan Performance Metrics
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan Performance Metrics Adjustment / Metric Description Incentive (+/- bps) Improve System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) systemwide; improve interruption and 1. Reliability duration outages (SAIDI, SAIFI, CEMI, and CELID) in enviro
Slide 42: Rush Island Energy Center
Rush Island Energy Center Ameren Missouri • In 2021, U.S. Court of Appeals ordered installation of a scrubber at Rush Island Energy Center; Ameren Missouri subsequently announced its intent to retire the energy center • In July, 2022, MISO designated Rush Island generating units as System Support Re
Slide 43: Solid Sustainability Ratings
Solid Sustainability Ratings AAA 0 A Aug. 2023 July 2023 Dec. 2022 A- Water A 27.2 Medium Risk C Climate Range: Range: Range: A-F AAA-CCC 0-100 (A is best) (AAA is best) (Lower is better) CCC 100 F Ameren Corp. 98.6 Trendsetter Oct 2023 EEI Financial Conference | Nov. 13 - 14, 2023 43
Slide 44: Ameren's Estimated Coal-Related Revenues in 2022
Ameren’s Estimated Coal-Related Revenues in 2022 Return on Investment Revenues Cost Recovery3 Revenues $2B1 x ($99M x $475M + 52% x $2B1 x 48% 25%) / (1 $168M x $138M + x 3.91% = - 25%) 20%1 = $171M = 12% 9.50%2 = $99M $38M $33M $34M $784M $7,966M Return on Interest Tax Expense Property Fuel, other
Slide 45: GAAP to Core Earnings Per Share Reconciliations
GAAP to Core Earnings Per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $1.18 $2.40 $2.59 $2.68 $2.14 $3.32 $3.35 $3.50 $3.84 $4.14 Exclude results from discontinued operations 0.87 — (0.01) — — — — — — — Less: Income tax bene
Slide 46: Weather-Normalized Earnings per Share Reconciliations
Weather-Normalized Earnings per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Core1 Diluted EPS $2.10 $2.40 $2.56 $2.68 $2.83 $3.37 $3.35 $3.50 $3.84 $4.14 Ameren Missouri weather impact included in margins 0.03 0.05 (0.04) 0.16 (0.07) 0.43 0.04 (0.05) 0
Slide 47: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar NOVEMBER 2023 JANUARY 2024 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 Goldman Sachs Conf. 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Q4 2023 Q3 Evercore quiet Earnings ISI Conf. period Conf. Call begins 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 14 15
Slide 48: Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters
Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • Order approving electric rate review filling: Docket No. ER-2022-0337 • Orders approving CCNs for Huck Finn and Boomtown Solar Projects: Docket No. EA-2022-0244 and EA-2022-0245, respectively • Pending multi-project Certi
Slide 49: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations AFUDC – Allowance for funds used during construction ITC – Investment tax credit ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois LRTP – Long Range Transmission Planning B – Billion LT – Long-term BOD – Board of Directors M – Million bps – Basis points MEEIA – Misso