First Citizens Bancshares, Inc. · NASDAQ:FCNCA
First Citizens Bancshares — Investor Presentation (September 2025)
30 slides from First Citizens Bancshares's investor presentation, Sep 24, 2025
Slide 1: Monthly Market Update
Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP Chief Investment Officer Monthly Market Update Phillip Neuhart, SVP Senior Director of Market Recorded on September 24, 2025 and Economic Research
Slide 2: What are we going to cover?
What are we going to cover? 1. Economic Update: Federal Reserve Policy | Inflation & Labor Market | Consumer Spending 2. Market Update: Equity Markets | Valuations | Fixed Income
Slide 3: Economic & Policy Update
Economic & Policy Update Federal Reserve Policy | Inflation & Labor Market | Consumer Spending
Slide 4: The Federal Reserve Lowered Rates Last Week as a "Risk Management" Cut
The Federal Reserve Lowered Rates Last Week as a “Risk Management” Cut 2025 2026 2027 Additional cuts 2 1 1 Rate 3.625 3.375 3.125 4
Slide 5: Inflation Is Running at a 3% Pace With No Immediate Sign of Slowing
Inflation Is Running at a 3% Pace With No Immediate Sign of Slowing Source: Bloomberg. Data as August 2025. 5
Slide 6: Households and Markets Both See Inflation Staying Elevated This Year
Households and Markets Both See Inflation Staying Elevated This Year 6
Slide 7: The Narrative on the Labor Market Has Changed Substantially
The Narrative on the Labor Market Has Changed Substantially 7
Slide 8: There Are Now Fewer Job Openings Than Unemployed Workers
There Are Now Fewer Job Openings Than Unemployed Workers 8
Slide 9: The Wage Premium for Switching Jobs Has Disappeared
The Wage Premium for Switching Jobs Has Disappeared 9
Slide 10: Core-Age Adults Are Employed at the Highest Rate Since 2001
Core-Age Adults Are Employed at the Highest Rate Since 2001 10
Slide 11: For the First Time, Recession Has Not Followed a Rise in Unemployment
For the First Time, Recession Has Not Followed a Rise in Unemployment 11
Slide 12: The Government Has Run Persistent Deficits With the Economy Strong
The Government Has Run Persistent Deficits With the Economy Strong 12
Slide 13: Households Invested in Stocks Have Never Been Wealthier
Households Invested in Stocks Have Never Been Wealthier 13
Slide 14: Rising Household Expenses Have Added Considerably to Cost of Living
Rising Household Expenses Have Added Considerably to Cost of Living 14
Slide 15: Consumer Spending Growth Continues to Moderate but Remains Healthy
Consumer Spending Growth Continues to Moderate but Remains Healthy 15
Slide 16: Market Update
Market Update Equity Markets | Valuations | Fixed Income
Slide 17: Global Asset Prices Have Recovered After the April Selloff
Global Asset Prices Have Recovered After the April Selloff Total Market Returns As of 9/19/2025 Feb. 19 Since YTD US peak to Feb. 19 peak 2025 Apr. 8 trough US Equities -19.3% +9.1% +14.2% Intl. Developed -8.5% +15.8% +24.9% Equities Emerging Market -11.4% +20.5% +27.6% Equities Aggregate Fixed +1.0
Slide 18: The S&P 500 Has Staged a Terrific Rebound
The S&P 500 Has Staged a Terrific Rebound S&P 500 Index +8% 6500 6000 5500 -8% 5000 -5% -19% 4500 4000 -10% -25% Total return since 10/12/2022: +95% 3500 Jan '22 May '22 Sep '22 Jan '23 May '23 Sep '23 Jan '24 May '24 Sep '24 Jan '25 May '25 Sep '25 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 9/19/2025. 18
Slide 19: S&P 500 Valuations Are Robust
S&P 500 Valuations Are Robust S&P 500 Next Twelve Months Price-to-Earnings Ratio 28X 24X 20X +1 Standard Deviation 16X Average 12X -1 Standard Deviation 8X 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Source: Strategas. Data as of 8/31/2025. 19
Slide 20: Earnings – Not Valuation – Have Been the Main Driver of Total Return
Earnings – Not Valuation – Have Been the Main Driver of Total Return Contribution to S&P 500 Total Return Since Jan. 1, 2022 60% Dividends (reinvested) Earnings Growth 50% 13% 48% P/E Change Total 40% 29% 30% 20% 10% 6% 0% Source: Bloomberg, First Citizens Bank. Data as of 8/31/2025. 20
Slide 21: Corporate Earnings
Corporate Earnings 19% Estimated Next 12-Month S&P 500 Operating Margin ▪ CY 2025 estimated growth is 10.7% 18.2% 18% Q3 2025 estimated growth is 7.7% 17% 16% ▪ CY 2026 estimated growth is 13.7% 15% 14% ▪ Average growth since 1950 is 7.6% 13% 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source: FactSet, Bloom
Slide 22: EPS Revisions Have Rebounded Sharply
EPS Revisions Have Rebounded Sharply Upward Earnings Estimate Revisions Pct. Total (3-Month Average) 80% 70% S&P 500 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22 '25 Source: Strategas. Data through August 2025. 22
Slide 23: Recent Dollar Weakness Garners Investor Attention
Recent Dollar Weakness Garners Investor Attention 23
Slide 24: S&P 500 Price Target
S&P 500 Price Target Next Twelve-Month S&P 500 Price Target Percent Next Twelve Months Change from Price Level 9/19/25 Bear 4,900 -26.7% Base 6,800 1.7% Bull 7,450 11.4% Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, First Citizens Wealth 24
Slide 25: The Treasury Yield Curve Has Continued to Steepen
The Treasury Yield Curve Has Continued to Steepen Source: Bloomberg 25
Slide 26: Corporate Bond Spreads Continue to Tighten
Corporate Bond Spreads Continue to Tighten 26
Slide 27: Fixed Income Is Still Offering Attractive Yield Relative to Post-GFC Cycle
Fixed Income Is Still Offering Attractive Yield Relative to Post-GFC Cycle US Fixed Income Indices Yield-to-Worst Index As of 9/19/2025 2-Year Treasury 3.6% 10-Year Treasury 4.1% Aggregate Bond 4.3% Intermediate Government/Credit 3.9% Municipal Bond 3.6% Investment Grade Corporate Bond 4.8% High Yie
Slide 28: Market Timing Is a Dangerous Game
Market Timing Is a Dangerous Game Growth of $10,000, S&P 500 Compounded Total Returns January 1, 1995 - December 31, 2024 $140,000 $131,347 37% less 54% less 73% less 83% less 89% less 92% less $120,000 • Nearly half (48%) of the S&P $100,000 500 Index’s strongest days $83,010 occurred during a bear
Slide 29: In Brief | A look at the week ahead in under two minutes every Monday
Brent Ciliano, SVP In Brief | A look at the week ahead in under two minutes Chief Investment Officer every Monday morning Q&As | Monthly conversations covering 2-3 of the top questions we’re hearing from clients Phillip Neuhart, SVP Senior Director of Market updates | Monthly interactive discussions
Slide 30: Authors Important Disclosures
Authors Important Disclosures Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, Capital Management Group | First Citizens Bank recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any s
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