Ameren Corporation · NYSE:AEE
Ameren — Q3 2019 Earnings Presentation
29 slides from Ameren's earnings presentation, Nov 8, 2019
Slide 1: Building a Brighter Energy Future
Building a Brighter Energy Future Third Quarter 2019 Earnings Nov. 8, 2019
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented core earnings per share, which is a non-GAAP financial measure and may not be comparable to that of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information is included in this presentation.
Slide 3: Business Update
Business Update Warner Baxter Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Ameren Corporation
Slide 4: Earnings and Guidance Summary
Earnings and Guidance Summary • 2019 diluted EPS guidance range of $3.23 to $3.33, narrowed from our prior guidance range of $3.15 Core Diluted EPS1 to $3.35 2018 vs. 2019 • Key Q3 Earnings Variance Drivers $3.09 $2.97 ↓ Lower allowed return on equity at Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution $1.50 $
Slide 5: Successfully Executing Our Strategic Plan in 2019
Successfully Executing Our Strategic Plan in 2019 Our Strategic Plan • Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks Capital Expenditures • Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy and YTD Sep. 30, 2019 economic polic
Slide 6: Executing Our Strategy – Renewable Energy Investments
Executing Our Strategy – Renewable Energy Investments Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers and shareholders • Build-transfer agreements in place for 700 MWs of wind generation in Missouri, ~$1.2 billion investment,1 to comply with Missouri’s RES
Slide 7: Building a Brighter and Cleaner Energy Future
Building a Brighter and Cleaner Energy Future Innovative Programs to Meet Customer Needs and Rising Expectations Utility-owned solar Subscription program generation facilities for MO available to MO residential non-residential customer Neighborhood Community and small business parking lots, open lan
Slide 8: Long-Term Total Return Outlook
Long-Term Total Return Outlook • Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from 2018-20231,2 – Primarily driven by strong rate base growth 2018-2023E Regulated Five-Year Rate Infrastructure Rate Base1,3 Base CAGR1 • Expect ~8% rate base CAGR from 2018-20231 ($ billions) – Includes ~$1 billion wind generation investm
Slide 9: Executive Rotation
Executive Rotation Effective Dec. 1, 2019 • Marty Lyons, currently • Michael Moehn, currently Executive Vice President President of Ameren and Chief Financial Officer Missouri, will become of Ameren and President of Executive Vice President Ameren Services, will and Chief Financial Officer become Pr
Slide 10: Financial Update
Financial Update Marty Lyons Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Ameren Corporation
Slide 11: GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliations
GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliations (in millions, except per share amounts) Three Months Ended Sep. 30, Nine Months Ended Sep. 30, Year Ended 2019 2018 2019 2018 Dec. 31, 2018 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $364 $1.47 $357 $1.45 $734 $2.97 $747 $3.04 $815 $3.32 Charge for revaluation of deferred taxe
Slide 12: 2019 Third Quarter Earnings Analysis
2019 Third Quarter Earnings Analysis Key Earnings Variance Drivers ↓ Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution earnings — Lower allowed ROE partially offset by increased investments in infrastructure Core Diluted EPS1 and energy efficiency Q3 2018 vs. Q3 2019 ↓ Ameren Illinois Natural Gas earnings – Cha
Slide 13: 2019 EPS Guidance and Select Balance of the Year Considerations
2019 EPS Guidance and Select Balance of the Year Considerations • 2019 diluted EPS guidance range narrowed to $3.23 to $3.33 from $3.15 to $3.35 2019E Diluted EPS • Select considerations for Q4 2019 EPS compared to Q4 2018 EPS $3.33 ↑ Earnings on increased investment in infrastructure at Ameren Tran
Slide 14: Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Missouri
Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Missouri Electric • $1 million annual revenue decrease request filed July 3 with MoPSC Electric Rate Review Procedural Schedule: – ROE: 9.95% and equity ratio: 51.9% – Rate base: $8.0 billion (Dec. 31, 2019 estimate) Dec. 4, 2019 Revenue requirement – Test year end
Slide 15: Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Illinois
Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution • Requested $7 million revenue decrease from ICC in annual formula update – Consistent with administrative law judges proposed order on Oct. 30 – Expect ICC decision by Dec. 2019, with new rates effective in Jan. 2020 – If approved, a
Slide 16: Recent Financing Activities and Credit Ratings
Ameren Credit Ratings Recent Financing Activities and External Debt Balances1 Equity Financing As of Sep. 30, 2019 • On Aug. 5, entered into a forward sale agreement to fund $ in millions Moody's S&P a portion of the 700 MW wind generation investment Ameren Corporation (Issuer: Baa1/BBB+) – Expect p
Slide 17: Select 2020 Earnings Considerations Compared to 2019
Select 2020 Earnings Considerations Compared to 2019 ↑ New electric service rates expected to be effective in late May 2020 — Reflecting new infrastructure investments and lower fuel and transportation costs Ameren ↓ Lower energy efficiency performance incentive: ~$(0.09) Missouri ↓ Return to normal
Slide 18: Summary
Summary Expect to deliver strong earnings growth in 2019 with guidance in a range of $3.23 to $3.33 per diluted share Successfully executing our strategy; well positioned for future growth Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect 6% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2018 through 20231,2 • Expect
Slide 19: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 20: Four Constructive Regulatory Frameworks
Four Constructive Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated: Formula ratemaking • Allowed ROE is 10.82%, which includes the MISO participation adder of 50 basis points Ameren • Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation Transmission • Constructive rate treatme
Slide 21: 2019 Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sept. 30
2019 Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sept. 30 Key Earnings Variance Drivers ↓ Ameren Missouri earnings — Lower electric retail sales: ~$(0.23) Core Diluted EPS1 • Weather vs. prior year: ~$(0.25); vs. normal ~+$0.02 Nine Months Ended Sept. 30 — Energy efficiency performance incentives: +$0.1
Slide 22: July 2019 Missouri Electric Rate Review Filing Details
July 2019 Missouri Electric Rate Review Filing Details • Key drivers of requested $1 million annual revenue decrease – Decreased net energy costs1 otherwise subject to FAC recovery: ~$(100) million – Cost recovery through higher weather-normalized customer sales volumes: ~$(55) million – Decreased e
Slide 23: Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Transmission
Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Transmission • First and second complaint cases to reduce MISO’s FERC base ROE – In Sep. 2016, FERC order issued in first complaint case set base ROE of 10.32% resulting in a total ROE of 10.82% including 50 basis point adder for MISO participation; order remains o
Slide 24: Executing Our Strategy – Investing in the Energy Grid
Executing Our Strategy – Investing in the Energy Grid Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers and shareholders • Expect energy grid will be increasingly more important and valuable to our customers, communities and shareholders – Investing to modern
Slide 25: ESG: Environmental Focus – Achieving Balance Responsibly
ESG: Environmental Focus – Achieving Balance Responsibly • Transitioning Ameren Missouri’s generation to a cleaner, more diverse portfolio in a responsible fashion – Preferred plan1 includes addition of 700 MWs of wind generation by Ameren’s Planned CO2 Emissions 2020 and 100 MWs of solar generation
Slide 26: ESG: Social and Governance Focus – Culture of Sustainability
ESG: Social and Governance Focus – Culture of Sustainability Hyperlinked below • Diverse Board of Directors focused on strong accountability and governance – Board committed to maintaining a balance of perspectives, qualifications, qualities and skills • 50% women and minorities – All members are in
Slide 27: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar NOVEMBER 2019 JANUARY 2020 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 1 2 1 2 3 4 Q3 Quiet Period, Continued 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Q3 2019 Earnings Evercore Call ISI Conf. 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Q4 Quiet EEI Conf.
Slide 28: Select Regulatory Matters
Select Regulatory Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • Order approving Renewable Choice Program agreement: Docket No. ET-2018-0063 • Order approving CCN for 400-MW wind facility and use of RESRAM: Docket No. EA-2018-0202 • Order approving CCN for 300-MW wind facility: Docket No. EA-2019-0181
Slide 29: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations AFUDC – Allowance for funds used during construction IRP – Integrated resource plan ALJ – Administrative Law Judge ISRS – Infrastructure System Replacement Surcharge ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois MEEIA – Missouri Energy Efficiency Investment Act b