Vistra Corp. · NYSE:VST
Vistra — Vistra Energy — Q3 2017 Earnings Presentation
21 slides from Vistra's earnings presentation, Nov 3, 2017
Slide 1: Vistra Energy Third Quarter 2017 Results
Vistra Energy Third Quarter 2017 Results November 3, 2017
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, are forward- looking statements. These statements are often, but
Slide 3: Safe Harbor Statements, Continued
Safe Harbor Statements, Continued Information About Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Items Affecting Comparability “Adjusted EBITDA” (EBITDA as adjusted for unrealized gains or losses from hedging activities, tax receivable agreement obligations, reorganization items, and certain other items describe
Slide 4: Q3 2017 Financial Highlights
Q3 2017 Financial Highlights Solid Q3 2017 Financial Performance • Q3 2017 Adjusted EBITDA of $522mm • YTD 2017 Adjusted EBITDA of $1,143mm Narrowing 2017 Guidance • Narrowed Adjusted EBITDA range to $1,375 – $1,475mm • Narrowed Adjusted Free Cash Flow to $770 – $900mm Initiating 2018 Guidance • Adj
Slide 5: Coal Fleet Review and OPI Update
Coal Fleet Review and OPI Update Coal Fleet Review • Coal fleet review resulted in planned retirements of Monticello, Big Brown, and Sandow, as announced in October 2017 – ERCOT has determined Monticello is not necessary for reliability. As a result, Monticello is expected to retire on January 4, 20
Slide 6: Business Operations
Business Operations Realized Prices and Volumes ERCOT NHUB ATC Price Hedge Premium ($/MWh) $34.98 ~73 TWhs 64.7 TWhs $31.47 $11.18 $27.46 $2.95 $5.86 $23.80 $21.60 $28.52 ~23 TWhs 2017 YTD 2017 YTD Bal. 17 Bal. 17 2018 2018 Realized Generation Estimated Forecasted Estimated Forecasted Price 2 Realiz
Slide 7: Financial Results
Financial Results Highlights Q3 2017 Performance • Q3 2017 adjusted EBITDA of $522mm1 – $349mm Luminant Adjusted EBITDA ($ in millions) – $176mm TXU Energy TXUE Luminant • TXU Energy continued to realize strong margins and stable customer counts, partially offset by mild Q3 $1,1432 weather 580 • Com
Slide 8: Initiating 2018 Guidance
Initiating 2018 Guidance Vistra Energy Corp. ($mm) 2017E 2018E TXU Energy 760 – 810 775 – 835 Luminant 630 – 680 540 – 630 Corp Center (15) (15) Adjusted EBITDA 1,375 – 1,475 1,300 – 1,450 Unhedged Adjusted EBITDA1 1,375 – 1,525 Adjusted Free Cash Flow 770 – 900 600 – 750 Unhedged Adjusted FCF1 675
Slide 9: Adjusted 2017E Guidance vs. 2018E Guidance
Adjusted 2017E Guidance vs. 2018E Guidance Adjusted EBITDA; $mm Guidance Range Unhedged 2018 adj. EBITDA range would be $1,375 – 1,525mm2 1,375 – 1,475 1,300 – 1,450 (95) 25 20 2017E Adjusted EBITDA Wholesale Price / Volume1 OPI TXUE 2018E Adjusted EBITDA 1 Includes incremental generation in 2018 as
Slide 10: Vistra Hedge Profile
Vistra Hedge Profile Natural Gas Hedge Profile Heat Rate Hedge Profile 100% 100% 92% 87% 82% 66% 67% 51% 6/30/17 10/20/17¹ 6/30/17 10/20/17 6/30/17 10/20/17¹ 6/30/17 10/20/17 2017 2018 2017 2018 Natural Gas Margin Sensitivity2 Heat Rate Margin Sensitivity2 ($ in millions) ($ in millions) 2017 2018 2
Slide 11: Vistra Capital Structure
Vistra Capital Structure • In August 2017, Vistra repriced its Incremental Term Loan B facility (totaling $995 million) to L+275 with a 0.75% LIBOR floor, generating ~$5 million of annual run-rate savings (on a pre- tax basis) $ in millions 9/30/2017 2017E Long-term debt1 $4,584 $4,584 Pro forma ter
Slide 12: Appendix
VICTRA ENERGY Appendix
Slide 13: Historical Adjusted EBITDA Contribution and Realized Power Prices
Historical Adjusted EBITDA Contribution and Realized Power Prices ($ in millions) Balanced Adjusted EBITDA Contribution1 $1,768 $1,667 $1,575 $1,555 $1,603 $960 $985 $755 $730 $764 $46.56 $43.23 $43.51 $39.88 $37.57 $33.93 $30.50 $25.15 $23.78 $21.06 $808 $682 $845 $800 $839 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Slide 14: ERCOT Market Pricing
ERCOT Market Pricing Monthly North Hub ATC Power Prices¹ Implied North Hub ATC Market Heat Rates August 18 $53.716 August 18 18.06 $32.916 12.0416 $28.116 10.2616 $26.61 August 17 9.2816 August 17 Monthly Gas Prices (HSC)² Yearly Average Prices NHUB NHUB Gas - HSC PRB 8800 ATC ATC HR August 17 Augus
Slide 15: Retail Key Metrics
Retail Key Metrics Residential Customer Counts1 North Central Zone Energy Degree Days2 (in thousands) 1,478 1,476 1,477 671 632 589 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 541 634 453 546 408 468 475 306 416 Q3 Retail Volumes (GWh) 277 193 5,385 5,257 240 289 203 161 7,359 6,948 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Slide 16: Vistra Capital Expenditures
Vistra Capital Expenditures Capital Expenditures1 2015A-2018E ($ in millions) 2015A 2016A 2017E 2018E3 Nuclear Fuel $122 $74 $62 $114 Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance 207 189 100 200 Environmental 82 62 15 14 IT, Corporate, and Other 44 27 31 32 Total Capital Expenditures $455 $352 $209 $360 Non-recurri
Slide 17: Reg G Reconciliation – Q3 Adjusted EBITDA
Reg G Reconciliation – Q3 Adjusted EBITDA 16
Slide 18: Reg G Reconciliation – YTD Adjusted EBITDA
Reg G Reconciliation – YTD Adjusted EBITDA 17
Slide 19: Reg G Reconciliation – YTD Adjusted FCF
Reg G Reconciliation – YTD Adjusted FCF 18
Slide 20: Reg G Reconciliation – Adj. EBITDA Guidance
Reg G Reconciliation – Adj. EBITDA Guidance 19
Slide 21: Reg G Reconciliation – Adj. FCF Guidance
Reg G Reconciliation – Adj. FCF Guidance 20