Vistra Corp. · NYSE:VST

Vistra — Q3 2025 Earnings Presentation

46 slides from Vistra's earnings presentation, Nov 6, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Third Quarter 2025 Results

    Third Quarter 2025 Results November 6, 2025 1

  2. Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements

    Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti

  3. Slide 3: Agenda

    Agenda Welcome and Safe Harbor Eric Micek, Vice President of Investor Relations Q3 2025 Highlights Jim Burke, President & Chief Executive Officer Q3 2025 Finance Update Kris Moldovan, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 3 Q3 2025 Investor Presentation

  4. Slide 4: Q3 2025 Highlights

    Q3 2025 Highlights Jim Burke President & Chief Executive Officer 4 Q3 2025 Investor Presentation

  5. Slide 5: Q3 2025 At-A-Glance

    Q3 2025 At-A-Glance NARROWING INITIATING CONTRACTED $5.7-5.9B $6.8-7.6B 1,200 MW 2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance range1,2 2026 Adj. EBITDA guidance range1,2 at Comanche Peak Nuclear Power Plant site 2025 Adj. FCFbG1,2 guidance midpoint 2026 Adj. FCFbG1,2 guidance range of 20-year PPA underwrites raised; u

  6. Slide 6: Continued Execution Against Our Four Strategic Priorities

    Continued Execution Against Our Four Strategic Priorities Integrated Disciplined Resilient Strategic Energy Business Model Capital Allocation Balance Sheet Transition Diversified generation portfolio Board authorization of $1 billion Net leverage1 of ~2.6x pro forma for 200-MW Oak Hill Solar Facilit

  7. Slide 7: Structural Tailwinds in Power Markets

    Structural Tailwinds in Power Markets Sustained load growth in our markets is already driving higher financial and operational performance levels PJM and ERCOT Load Growth Year-over-year weather adjusted growth in load (MWh) by quarter (%)1 Our primary markets continue to outperform 6. • Continued s

  8. Slide 8: Multi-Year Execution Creating Value in Evolving Power Markets

    Multi-Year Execution Creating Value in Evolving Power Markets Delivering on multiple opportunities while positioning for future growth Profitability and Cash Generation Delivering growth through consistent execution Adj. EBITDA and Adj. FCFbG1,2,3 ($ in millions) ✓ Integrated model in strengthening

  9. Slide 9: Q3 2025 Finance Update

    Q3 2025 Finance Update Kris Moldovan Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 9 Q3 2025 Investor Presentation

  10. Slide 10: Q3 2025 Results

    Q3 2025 Results Resilient quarterly performance in milder weather environment Q3 2025 Financial Results Generation2 Adjusted EBITDA1,2 ($ in millions) Q3 2025 and YTD 2025 favorable as compared to comparable 2024 periods, primarily driven by: $ , 7 • Higher realized wholesale prices and capacity rev

  11. Slide 11: Disciplined Capital Allocation

    Disciplined Capital Allocation Incremental free cash flow to drive additional value for shareholders Earnings Visibility Driving Higher Available Capital ~$10B • Comprehensive hedging program and nuclear PTC provide cash flow visibility with expected generation hedge percentages of ~98%, ~96%, and ~

  12. Slide 12: Delivering Long-term Shareholder Value

    Delivering Long-term Shareholder Value We believe growing free cash flow per share is the primary driver of long-term value for our shareholders Vistra Cash Generation Outlook Meaningful potential upside not included in Adj. Free Cash Flow before Growth ($ per share) 1,2 current outlook • Continued

  13. Slide 13: About Vistra

    About Vistra 13 Q3 2025 Investor Presentation

  14. Slide 14: America's Leading Integrated Power Provider

    America’s Leading Integrated Power Provider Integrated Fortune 500 retail electricity and power generation company based in Irving, Texas Products and services in 18 states and Washington D.C., including all major competitive wholesale markets in the U.S. Retail • Serving approximately 5 million res

  15. Slide 15: Environmental Stewardship

    Environmental Stewardship Pursuing a sustainable energy transition that balances reliability and affordability of power EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS1 PORTFOLIO TRANSFORMATION Scope 1 and Scope 2 Emissions Methane Emissions Generation Carbon Emissions Intensity (Million mt CO2e) (Hundreds mt) ( mt CO2e/MWh )

  16. Slide 16: Supporting Employees and Our Communities

    Supporting Employees and Our Communities Vistra’s Purpose: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT AWARDS & RECOGNITION Employee Support • Formal mentoring program to help develop professional skills and provide U.S. News & Newsweek 2025 TIME Magazine World Report net

  17. Slide 17: Appendix

    Appendix 17 Q3 2025 Investor Presentation

  18. Slide 18: Nuclear Production Tax Credit Overview

    Nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC) Overview1 I A’s nu l ar r at s r v nu stability during ri ds f l w r w r ri s f r nu l ar g n rati n Illustrative Revenue Support PTC Mechanism2 • The nuclear PTC is a tax credit of up to $15/MWh • When gross receipts exceed $26/MWh, the PTC amount is reduced by 8

  19. Slide 19: Retail Overview

    Retail Overview Strong margins driving Adj. EBITDA growth Highlights • Retail volumes increased 5% YoY driven by continued growth in the business markets segment • Grew residential counts in Texas within the quarter and year over year • Residential results and large business markets sales performanc

  20. Slide 20: Corporate Debt Profile

    Corporate Debt Profile Vistra remains committed to a long-term net leverage target below 3x1 Balances ($ in millions) Proforma5 Funded Revolving Credit Facilities $0 Vistra Operations Term Loan B 2,456 Lotus Transaction Assumed Term Loan 803 Senior Secured Notes 6,400 Senior Unsecured Notes 6,300 2

  21. Slide 21: Select Debt Balances

    Select Debt Balances Principal outstanding for secured and unsecured debt issued from Vistra Operations Vistra Operations Secured Debt ($ in millions) Proforma1 Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2030 $2,456 5.050% Senior Secured Notes due December 2026 500 3.700% Senior Secured Notes due Jan

  22. Slide 22: Comprehensive Hedging Program Overview

    Comprehensive Hedging Program Overview Effective September 30, 2025 Balance of 2025 2026 Texas West East Total Texas West East Total Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 13 15 28 51 56 107 % Hedged 100% 98% 99% 100% 97% 98% Sensitivity to Power Price: + $2.50/mwh ($M) $10 $1

  23. Slide 23: Forward Market Pricing

    Forward Market Pricing Effective September 30, 2025 Bal'2025 2026 2027 2028 Bal'2025 2026 2027 2028 Power (ATC, $/MWh) Spark Spreads (ATC, $/MWh) ERCOT North Hub $36.50 $55.11 $58.83 $58.88 ERCOT West Hub $40.50 $59.39 $63.83 $64.39 Texas cont. PJM AD Hub $44.44 $49.14 $49.93 $49.40 ERCOT North Hub-

  24. Slide 24: Capacity Positions

    Capacity Positions Effective September 30, 2025 Tenor Zone Position (MW) Average Price ($/MW-day) Tenor Zone Position (MW) Avg. Price ($/KW-mo) East East 2024/2025 PJM - RTO 5,170 $34.30 Winter 24/25 NYISO 1,099 $2.99 2024/2025 PJM - ComEd 2,333 $37.92 2024/2025 ISO-NE 3,347 $3.09 2024/2025 PJM - DE

  25. Slide 25: Generation Metrics

    Generation Metrics Effective September 30, 2025 Total Generation (TWh) Q3 2024 Q3 2025 YTD 2024 YTD 2025 CCGT Capacity Factor (%) Q3 2024 Q3 2025 YTD 2024 YTD 2025 Texas 27.6 26.9 68.1 67.7 Texas 78% 74% 61% 59% East 30.8 30.6 74.8 82.4 East 71% 70% 61% 61% West 1.0 0.6 2.9 1.6 West 44% 26% 44% 24%

  26. Slide 26: Asset Fleet Details

    Asset Fleet Details Effective October 31, 2025 Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW) Ennis Ennis, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 366 Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 Hays San Marcos, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,122 Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,180 Midlothian Midlothian, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas

  27. Slide 27: Asset Fleet Details

    Asset Fleet Details Effective October 31, 2025 Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW) Moss Landing I & II Moss Landing, CA CAISO CCGT Gas 1,020 Moss Landing Moss Landing, CA CAISO Battery Battery 450 Oakland Oakland, CA CAISO CT Oil 110 Greenleaf Yuba City, CA CAISO CT Gas 49 T

  28. Slide 28: Asset Fleet Details

    Asset Fleet Details Effective October 31, 2025 (continued from prior page) Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW) Kendall Minooka, IL PJM CCGT Gas 1,288 Liberty Eddystone, PA PJM CCGT Gas 607 Ontelaunee Reading, PA PJM CCGT Gas 600 Sayreville Sayreville, NJ PJM CCGT Gas 349 Was

  29. Slide 29: Capital Expenditures

    Capital Expenditures1 Category ($ in millions) 2023A 2024A 2025E 2026E Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance 2,3 $730 $785 ~$1,075 ~$1,025 Nuclear Fuel4 206 307 ~300 ~475 Non-Recurring 5 8 6 ~(225) ~(75) Solar & Energy Storage Development6 550 604 ~675 ~300 Other Growth 7 120 155 ~400 ~475 Total Capital Expe

  30. Slide 30: Vistra Zero Portfolio and Development Pipeline

    Vistra Zero Portfolio and Development Pipeline Effective October 31, 2025 Online Assets Location ISO In-Service Year Net Capacity (MW) Development Pipeline Location ISO Status, In-Service Year Net Capacity (MW) Beaver Valley I & II Shippingport, PA PJM 1976 / 1987 1,872 Pulaski Pulaski County, IL MI

  31. Slide 31: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations 31 Q3 2025 Investor Presentation

  32. Slide 32: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Three Months Ended September 30, 2025 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Corp and Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $(40) $823 $354 $105 $(564) $678 $(26) $652 Income tax expens

  33. Slide 33: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Three Months Ended September 30, 2024 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Corp and Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $(1,226) $3,354 $526 $155 $(952) $1,857 $(20) $1,837 Income t

  34. Slide 34: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Three Months Ended September 30, 2023 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Corp and Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $245 $472 $(49) $259 $(414) $513 $(11) $502 Income tax expens

  35. Slide 35: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Nine Months Ended September 30, 2025 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Corp and Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $969 $966 $(16) $132 $(1,203) $848 $(137) $711 Income tax expe

  36. Slide 36: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Nine Months Ended September 30, 2024 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Corp and Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $232 $2,445 $871 $442 $(1,592) $2,398 $(76) $2,322 Income tax

  37. Slide 37: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Nine Months Ended September 30, 2023 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Corp and Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $462 $430 $1,457 $459 $(1,177) $1,631 $45 $1,676 Income tax ex

  38. Slide 38: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2024 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $1,216 $2,133 $902 $486 $(1,794) $2,943 $(131) $2,812 Income

  39. Slide 39: Non-GAAP Reconciliations

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2023 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $424 $398 $1,749 $434 $(1,527) $1,478 $14 $1,492 Income tax e

  40. Slide 40: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted FCFbG

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted FCFbG Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2024 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Asset Vistra Operations Closure Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $5,643 $(104) $5,539 Interest paid, net (a) (939) 0 (939) Taxes paid (56) 0 (56) Change in working capital, margin dep

  41. Slide 41: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted FCFbG

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Adjusted FCFbG Twelve Months Ended December 31, 2023 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Asset Vistra Operations Closure Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $4,093 $8 $4,101 Interest paid, net (a) (560) 0 (560) Taxes paid (24) 0 (24) Change in working capital, margin deposit

  42. Slide 42: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Guidance

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Guidance 2025 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) $1,920 $2,070 $(180) $(180) $1,740 $1,890 Income tax expense 440 490 0 0 440 490 Interest expense and related cha

  43. Slide 43: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Guidance

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Guidance 2025 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Adjusted EBITDA guidance $5,700 $5,900 $(85) $(85) $5,615 $5,815 Interest paid, net (1,141) (1,141) 0 0 (1,141) (1,141) Tax (paid)

  44. Slide 44: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Guidance

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Guidance 2026 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) $3,100 $3,730 $(90) $(90) $3,010 $3,640 Income tax expense 830 1,000 0 0 830 1,000 Interest expense and related c

  45. Slide 45: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Guidance

    Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Guidance 2026 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Adjusted EBITDA guidance $6,800 $7,600 $(80) $(80) $6,720 $7,520 Interest paid, net (1,125) (1,125) 0 0 (1,125) (1,125) Tax (paid)

  46. Slide 46: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward

    Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward 46 Q3 2025 Investor Presentation

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