Sbi Funds Management Limited · NSE:SBIFUNDS
Sbi Funds Management — Investor Presentation (November 2025)
61 slides from Sbi Funds Management's investor presentation, November 2025
Slide 1: Economy and Markets November 2025
ECONOMY AND MARKETS November 2025
Slide 2: Financial market performance Year-to-Date: Broad based rally across multiple asset class
Financial market performance Year-to-Date: Broad based rally across multiple asset class Precious metals is the best performing asset class Year-to-date: • 2025 have seen a broad-based performance with multiple EM equity follows asset classes spanning across DM and EM equities, EM fixed income, prec
Slide 3: Tariffs and Their Ripple Effects: Inflation, Investment, and Geopolitics
Tariffs and Their Ripple Effects: Inflation, Investment, and Geopolitics • Seven months have passed since 2nd April –Liberation Day. Harvard Research has come out with a study to conclude that most of the tariff costs have largely been absorbed by US importers and consumers. This is still incrementa
Slide 4: Geopolitical shifts will continue: Root cause is economic imbalance
Geopolitical shifts will continue: Root cause of the problem is economic imbalance Global economic imbalance: China overinvests under consumes; US faces over US$1 trillion Trade Deficit; China holds similar US underinvests over consumes quantum surplus • The tariff issue highlights the deeper econom
Slide 5: Some near-term de-escalation in global uncertainty
Some near-term de-escalation in global uncertainty Some reprieve to trade uncertainty from its April peak Policy uncertainty also cools off to pre-Trump levels Probability of recession 12M ahead has eased from its peak but stays high • The policy uncertainty has eased from its April peak. • In the i
Slide 6: US labour market sees signs of weakness
US labour market sees signs of weakness… Hiring intention see a slowdown Unemployment rate inches up Only 22k jobs added in August 2025 in nonfarm payroll Real average weekly earnings fall close to zero level Source: Bloomberg, SBIFM Research; NB: Recent data not released due to US government shutdo
Slide 7: Prompting US Fed to cut interest rates
…prompting US Fed to cut interest rates US Fed cuts rates by 25bps each in September and October Federal reserve dot plot projects one more rate cut in 2025 • The weakening in labour market prompted the Federal Reserve to deliver two consecutive rate cuts. • The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25bps to
Slide 8: US Fed actions keep yields stable. Gold prices surge and US equities resilient
US Fed actions keep yields stable. Gold prices surge and US equities resilient US treasury yields broadly contained at ~4-4.20% US S&P remained resilient amidst government shutdown A word on US government shut down: • US government triggered an automatic shutdown on 1st October 2025 (first time in s
Slide 9: US consumption demand holds up supported by wealth effect
Even as labour data is weakening, US consumption demand holds up likely supported by wealth effect Retail sales stay strong; grows by 5% y-o-y in August 2025 Consumer spending patterns remain stable Consumer confidence continues to show positivity • While firms have slowed hiring, there hasn’t been
Slide 10: US inflation concerns remain; Growth projected to moderate in 2H 2025
US inflation concerns remain; Growth projected to moderate in 2H 2025 US CPI and core PCE is contained for now; could rise on account Growth prints supported by front loading in 1H 2025; projected to of tariffs moderate in 2H 2025 E Real GDP forecast (Bloomberg) Q1 Q2 (%y-o-y) Q3 Q4 2024 2025 E (Act
Slide 11: While trade shifts create a headwind for growth
While trade shifts create a headwind for growth… Global exports stay resilient till August, could see a material US merchandise trade deficit shot up significantly as firms-built slowdown in the remaining year inventory post Trump victory • U.S. goods trade deficit widened sharply as firms front-loa
Slide 12: Pro-growth global monetary and fiscal policy provides offsetting impact
…pro-growth global monetary and fiscal policy provides some offsetting impact Inflation levels remain contained Monetary policy remains accommodative across most developed and emerging market economies Annual Policy 2023 2024 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Rate (in %) US 5.5
Slide 13: The World Faces the Fallout of China's Industrial Overcapacity
The World Faces the Fallout of China’s Industrial Overcapacity China exports deflation to rest of the world China’s manufactured goods production surge the most amongst global economies • While inflation remains a concern in the US, much of Asia is in a disinflationary phase — partly driven by China
Slide 14: Dollar is weak, most currencies appreciate year-to-date though Indian Rupee is weak
Dollar is weak, most currencies appreciate year-to- date though Indian Rupee is weak DXY depreciates DXY is still overvalued; could it fall further? Weakness in DXY YTD drives appreciation across Asian currencies • The adjustment to economic imbalance also warrants a weaker dollar. Despite the recen
Slide 15: European Defence Spending
European Defence Spending European (EU27+UK) defence spending goes to 2% of GDP by Yield on European debt has already risen 2024 after 30-year decline; targeting to rise to 3.5% of GDP • Europe is ending its long-standing fiscal austerity with Germany leading the path. Market will be keenly watching
Slide 16: Commodity prices trends: precious and industrial metals best performers
Commodity prices trends: precious metals and industrial metals have been best performers Commodities rose marginally m-o-m in October Metal prices see an uptick in October m-o-m; majority energy prices moderated compared to last month Year-to-date, precious metals and industrial metals have been the
Slide 17: Gold Outlook: Strength Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
Gold Outlook: Strength Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty Gold price movements Gold demand supply dynamics 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total supply 4,886.9 4,740.5 4,703.2 4,755.7 4,945.9 4,974.5 Demand Jewellery fabrication 2,152 1,324 2,231 2,195 2,191 2,004 Technology 332.7 309.0 337.2
Slide 18: Gold Outlook: Strength Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty
Gold Outlook: Strength Amid Geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty ETF has stayed away from gold in last four years- trends changing Price of gold in real terms at an all time high in 2025 Gold valuations high compared to past trends; Yet we continue to • Gold prices have surged since March 2025, dri
Slide 19: India Economic Activity
INDIA ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Slide 20: Modest improvement in economic activity amidst festivities and GST cut (1/2)
Modest improvement in economic activity improve amidst festivities and GST cut impact (1/2) Weakness in GST collection, electricity demand, goods and passenger movement, service exports, and inflation; On the other hand, momentum healthy in bank credit, auto sales, two-wheeler sales, and government
Slide 21: Modest improvement in economic activity amidst festivities and GST cut (2/2)
Modest improvement in economic activity improve amidst festivities and GST cut impact (2/2) Weakness in GST collection, electricity demand, goods and passenger movement, service exports, and inflation; On the other hand, momentum healthy in bank credit, auto sales, two-wheeler sales, and government
Slide 22: Consumer sentiments improve – multiple policy efforts to support growth
Consumer sentiments improve – multiple policy effort to support growth Consumer sentiments improve States’ welfare measures Personal Income Tax reduction GST reduction Monetary easing Regulatory relaxation in retail lending Healthy Agriculture prospects Reduced inflationary pressures 8th Pay commiss
Slide 23: Income growth is a structural issue; consumer cycle still lacking
But Income growth is a structural issue, thus structural rise in consumer cycle is still lacking Weak income drags consumption even as debt rises 23.0 % 5Year CAGR 21.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-2
Slide 24: Skilling and job creation in productive sectors are problem in India
Skilling and job creation in productive sectors are problem in India India has a problem of low skill set translating into low labour productivity and disguised unemployment Labour Force Skill Set Participation Employment Output per worker (GDP Output per worker (enrolment to Rate (>15 years)- Rate%
Slide 25: Market betting on resolution to India US trade and tariff deadlock
Market increasingly betting on some resolution to India US trade and tariff deadlock: critical for India’s growth Exports to the US holds important position in India’s recent ~22% of India’s merchandise shipment in 2025 directed towards economic activity the US; US share in India’s exports moderated
Slide 26: Trade outlook shapes India's private capex too
Trade outlook shapes India’s private capex too Global goods trade momentum is weak Weak exports adversely affect investment decision in India • Effective tariffs rate in the US has risen from 2% in 2024 to 18% now (as per Yale study) • US accounts for 14% of global goods demand Source: CMIE Economic
Slide 27: India's economy on an uneven ground
India’s economy on an uneven ground Deflator issues are overstating the pace of India’s growth GDP deflator (a proxy for aggregate inflation in economy) at its historical low • Nominal growth is at its historical low (barring COVID). Higher nominal growth often signals rising prices, influencing exp
Slide 28: Why does nominal growth matter?
Why does nominal growth matter? Tax collection weakens: Lower revenues may force higher Corporate revenues and earnings weaken: Signals poor demand borrowing or spending cuts and pricing power leading to reduced capex • If inflation is very low, real rates may remain high even with low nominal rates
Slide 29: Real estate: Momentum is moderating
Real estate: Momentum is moderating Real Estate launches and sales growth is underwhelming till Fall in home loan rates improves affordability, developers still September 2025; sees some improvement though positive on outlook • Real estate sales volumes contracts marginally y-o-y in September quarte
Slide 30: India's fiscal discipline constrains public expenditure
India’s fiscal discipline constrains public expenditure, though marginal growth shift seen in 2025 Are we at the end of fiscal consolidation? Consolidation implies constrained spending 15.0 37 % GDP 36.3 35.7 13.2 13.0 35 11.0 33 32.4 10.1 9.6 30.9 9.0 31 7.6 29.6 7.2 29.3 7.0 29 5.9 5.0 4.2 27 3.0
Slide 31: Inflation not a problem – monetary policy can ease further
Inflation not a problem- monetary policy can ease further. More pro-growth actions needed for India’s growth Inflationary conditions are benign Real rates are significantly higher than trend: Such a condition often gets followed by rate cuts 14 13.0 500 Latest spread 340bps 10 12 10 year avg CPI: 5%
Slide 32: FY26 growth prospects not materially exciting
FY26 growth prospects not materially exciting India’s growth around 6.5% • Q1 FY26 GDP came in at 7.8%, a recovery from 7.4% in Q4 FY25. • In nominal terms, GDP growth slowed to 8.8%, a three-quarter low, 9.7 9.2 12 and could weaken further in Q2. High-frequency indicators up to 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.4 10 6
Slide 33: Equity Market
EQUITY MARKET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Slide 34: Global equity market snapshot: October 2025
Global equity market snapshot: October 2025 Performance in October 2025 (local currency returns) YTD performance (local currency returns) Performance in October 2025 (US$ returns) YTD performance (US$ returns) Source: Bloomberg, SBIFM Research
Slide 35: Indian equity market snapshot: October 2025
Indian equity market snapshot: October 2025 Indian equity market performance in October 2025 (local currency YTD performance (local currency returns) returns • NIFTY rose this month by 4.5% in October. YTD, NIFTY witnessed a rise of ~9%. Performance down the capitalization curve has been much worse.
Slide 36: Liquidity: FIIs turn net buyers in Indian equity market
Liquidity: FIIs turn net buyers in Indian equity market; pick up in primary issuances FIIs purchased US$2.4bn in October(vs. sale of 2.1bn in Sep’25) DIIs are net buyers (purchase of USD ~5.2bn in October (vs. 7.4bn last month) Retail flows into Equity (both Cash and Derivates) surge; Category Prima
Slide 37: Monthly SIP inflow improves; equity scheme flows
50 0 100 150 200 250 300 350 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 600.0 700.0 800.0 -200.0 -100.0 0.0 ago FY20 85 Sep-20 FY21 80 FY22 104 Dec-20 Apr-22 119 May-22 123 Mar-21 Jun-22 123 Jul-22 121 159 Aug-22 127 Jun-21 99 Sep-22 130 296 191 Oct-22 130 Sep-21 180 Nov-22 133 149 220 Dec-22 136 Dec-21 436 Rs.
Slide 38: Nifty earnings growth: PAT and EBITDA
10 30 40 20 50 0 -20 -10 20 40 60 80 0 -40 -20 100 120 Sep-14 6 Sep-14 5 Dec-14 2 Dec-14 -6 Mar-15 -5 Mar-15 -12 Jun-15 5 Jun-15 -2 Sep-15 1 Sep-15 0 Dec-15 5 Dec-15 -7 Mar-16 15 Mar-16 1 Jun-16 8 Jun-16 -3 Sep-16 11 Sep-16 -3 Dec-16 9 Dec-16 7 Mar-17 3 Mar-17 7 Jun-17 -7 Jun-17 -6 Sep-17 18 Sep-17
Slide 39: Earnings revisions continue to rise in October
Earnings revisions continue to rise in October Earnings Upgrades to downgrades ratio continues going up in In FY26 (till October) EPS projection saw a downgrade October 90% -5.9 FY26 80% -3.3 FY25 70% -1.3 FY24 60% -4.9 FY23 50% 1.5 FY22 40% -2.4 FY21 -23.4 FY20 30% -12.6 FY19 20% -9.7 FY18 10% -16.
Slide 40: Earnings projections ~9% in FY26
Earnings projections ~9% in FY26 Earnings expected to recover in FY26 Sectoral breakup of NIFTY earnings outlook EPS Change 1,011 1,059 1,120 1,200 40 No. of FY2 FY21- FY22- FY23- FY24- FY25- FY26- FY27- FY25-28 1,000 822 30 Cos. 0-21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 (CAGR) 743 800 Nifty 20.0% 35.7% 5.9% 29.5%
Slide 41: Equity valuations have turned moderately expensive
Equity valuations have turned moderately expensive Sensex trailing PE ratio stood at 26.7 in Oct’25 vs. 23.5 in Sep’25 Earnings yield to bond yield spread has corrected 34.0 Current : 26.7 4.0% Current : -2.78% 30.0 Average : 20.4 2.0% Average : -2.18% Percentile : 93% Percentile : 52% 26.0 0.0% 22.
Slide 42: Polarization remains low, favorable towards large caps
Polarization remains low, remains favorable towards large caps Market capitalization/GDP expensive vs. history at 97th percentile Mid caps and small caps: Market polarization remains favourable reading towards large caps 200 Current: 138 57% Current : 40.0% 55% Average : 47.6% Average: 79 53% 150 Pe
Slide 43: Equity market sentiment moves above zero
Equity market sentiment moves above zero Equity sentiment moves above zero Equity sentiment moves above zero 2.50 80% 100% 2.00 Zone of Complacency => SELL 60% 80% Zone of Complacency => SELL 1.50 40% 60% 1.00 R² = 0.3226 12m fwd returns 0.50 20% 40% 0.00 0% 20% Feb-08 Apr-09 Mar-15 Sep-18 Dec-06 Ma
Slide 44: Equity Outlook
Equity Outlook: We change our outlook to neutral from an underweight stance in 2024 • Indian equities saw an improvement in October with GST rates rationalisation providing some support though adverse trade tariff outcomes weigh on the markets. • The Nifty and the Sensex gained by ~4.5% each respect
Slide 45: Fixed Income Market
FIXED INCOME MARKET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Slide 46: Global Bond Market Snapshot
Global Bond Market Snapshot US treasury yields moderate m-o-m amidst weakness in labour market data and rate cut; EM bond yields see a mixed performance m-o-m change YTD change 10 Year Gsec Yield (% mth end) 2023 end 2024 end Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 (in bps) (in bps) Developed market US 3.88 4.5
Slide 47: Yield curve steepens across major developed markets
Yield curve steepens across major developed markets Germany yield curve steepens US 30yr bond yield hovered close to 4.70% through October UK 30 vs 2yr yields spread highest in nearly eight years • The return of Trump to the political spotlight is broadly negative for bonds. • While U.S. rate cuts m
Slide 48: India Rates Snapshot
India Rates Snapshot: Indian rates movement largely dictated by domestic factors Yields moderate across all asset classes m-o-m YTD 2023 2024 m-o-m • Bond yields moderate across short and long tenure asset classes. Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 change end end (in bps) (in bps) • SDL yields moderated m-o-m. R
Slide 49: India G-Sec yield curve steepens in 2025
India G-Sec yield curve steepens in 2025 Yields fell YTD across short term tenures on liquidity actions by the RBI in 2025 but rise for long term tenure bonds- leads to the steepening of the Indian G-sec curve Yield (%) 3 Month 6 month 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 1
Slide 50: Central government finances see soft tax collection
Central government finances see soft tax collection while expenditure gets front-loaded Centre’s tax collections muted Centre’s fiscal deficit reached 37% of the full-year budget estimate significantly higher than the typical 27–33% historically.. Key Fiscal Indicators - Central Government Finances
Slide 51: RBI keeps repo rate unchanged with neutral stance
RBI keeps repo rate unchanged with neutral stance in October policy Repo rate cut by 100bps cumulatively since February 2025 policy to 5.50% now • The Monetary Policy Committee kept the Repo unchanged at 5.50% (cumulative 100bps cut; SDF rate at 5.25%, MSF rate at 5.75%) in line with market expectat
Slide 52: Inflation outlook enables RBI to focus on growth
Inflation outlook creates an enabling environment for RBI to focus on growth India’s headline inflation is benign at 1.5% y-o-y in September Material softening in food inflation 2025 Goods and services inflation likely to be contained • India’s retail inflation outlook creates an enabling environmen
Slide 53: Banking system and durable liquidity moderate in October
Banking system and durable liquidity moderate in October 2025 driven by RBI FX selling Banking system liquidity goes to neutral levels by end October; Overnight rate anchor near repo rate Durable liquidity moderates too to 3.6tn (vs. 5tn a month ago) 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 Apr-2
Slide 54: Indian rupee is marginally undervalued at 88/US$
Indian rupee is marginally undervalued at 88/ US$. Rupee is marginally undervalued Annual depreciation trends ~3% in last 5 years • The Indian Rupee breached the ₹88 mark in August, depreciating 3.9% year-to-date. Among emerging market currencies, the rupee stands out as a rare underperformer, while
Slide 55: Yields rise in longer dated Indian Government bonds
Yields rise in longer dated Indian Government bonds Wider spreads in Indian G-Sec space Incremental demand in government securities is mainly absorbed by RBI; lack of demand from pension, provident funds and banks Absolute change (Q1FY26 vs SDL +Gsec (Rs. Billion) Q1FY25 Q2FY25 Q3FY25 Q4FY25 Q1FY26
Slide 56: SDL issuances pick up in Q2FY26; spreads elevated
SDL issuances see a significant pick up in Q2FY26; spreads elevated SDL issuances at 84% of their indicated calendar amount FYTD SDL spreads remain elevated 500 123132 105100 103 97 105 400 97 90 92 89 88 84 74 77 81 78 73 79 72 80 79 300 68 66 58 58 57 200 100 0 Q2 Q1 Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Slide 57: Indian G-sec valuations: neutral to marginally attractive
Indian G-sec valuations: neutral to marginally attractive G-sec spread vs. equity turns neutral Real rate turns positive G-sec spread can stay compressed in the period of monetary easing India vs. US yield adjusted for inflation in line with long term trend Source: Bloomberg, RBI, SBIFM Research
Slide 58: FIIs interest in Indian bonds sees a marginal rise
FIIs interest in Indian bonds sees a marginal rise FIIs buy India’s Debt assets since May 2025 FII flows in EM bonds are muted despite healthy inflation adjusted returns; as risk premium vs. DM bonds is largely erased EM FII Debt 12M FX 10 year G-sec Real Rate inflow 2023 2024 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 O
Slide 59: Debt Outlook
Debt Outlook: Near-term fundamentals dictate favorable outlook • The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has remained near 4%. U.S. rate cuts will likely steepen the yield curve over time. Any short-term easing in benchmark rates are unsustainable given the backdrop of elevated inflation, potentially weaker
Slide 60: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation is for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any mutual fund units/securities. These views alone are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. It should not be construed
Slide 61: Contact Details
Contact Details SBI Funds Management Limited Call: 1800 425 5425 (A joint venture between SBI and AMUNDI) SMS: “SBIMF” to 7065611100 Corporate Office: 9th Floor, Crescenzo, Email: customer.delight@sbimf.com C-38 & 39, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai - 400 051 Visit us @ www.face
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