Sbi Funds Management Limited · NSE:SBIFUNDS
Sbi Funds Management — Investor Presentation (October 2026)
61 slides from Sbi Funds Management's investor presentation, October 2026
Slide 1: Economy and Markets
ECONOMY AND MARKETS October 2026
Slide 2: From tariffs to turmoil: Geopolitics drives a sharp cross-asset rotation
From tariffs to turmoil: Geopolitics drives a sharp cross-asset rotation Tariff uncertainty dominated 2025: Precious Metals Led Returns Geopolitical risk (Middle East war) dominated March-mid Sep 2026: Energy led the rally Dow Jones Precious Metals Index 245.8 Brent 42.3 Gold 90.2 BSE Small Cap (loc
Slide 3: China is the new OPEC
China is the new OPEC China's demand pullback acted as a key stabiliser for global oil Rising US petroleum exports help partly offset supply disruptions prices 60 20 50 40 15 30 10 20 5 10 0 0 Apr-25 Dec-23 Apr-01 Dec-03 Dec-07 Dec-11 Aug-02 Apr-05 Aug-06 Apr-09 Aug-10 Apr-13 Dec-15 Aug-14 Apr-17 De
Slide 4: Commodities at record high: Inflation risk very much alive
Commodities at record high: Inflation risk very much alive Commodity prices at an all time high; signalling inflation is here to stay 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 2011 2026 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201
Slide 5: After energy, its agri commodities
After energy, its agri commodities Broad YTD gains, led by energy and food commodity prices Most energy commodities continue to rise m-o-m; food sees some upward pressure 153 137 21.4 165 120 Commodity prices 16.8 145 25 16.0 15.8 15.2 Commodity prices (% m-o-m change) 125 11.7 11.5 20 10.6 91 105 (
Slide 6: Inflation is sticky and above central bank target in select key economies
Inflation is sticky and above central bank target in select key economies Recent prints in developed markets and select emerging markets are running above their average in the past decade 8 7.1 CPI inflation (%y-o-y) 7 6.2 6.1 6 5.2 4.8 5 4.5 4.4 3.7 4 3.4 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 2.5 3 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.9 1
Slide 7: That 70s Show: Fears of a second wave of inflation
That 70s Show: Fears of a second wave of inflation The return of an old problem 16.0 12.0 US CPI (1967-87)- % y-o-y US CPI (since Oct 2014. rhs)- % y-o-y 14.0 10.0 12.0 8.0 10.0 6.0 8.0 4.0 6.0 2.0 4.0 2.0 - 0.0 -2.0 1969 1967 1968 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 198
Slide 8: Back to rate hiking cycle
Back to rate hiking cycle Rate hikes return in 2026 Aggressive rate hikes priced in over next 12 months 60 7.0 6.0 5.7 40 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.6 4.6 20 4.0 3.6 3.8 3.3 3.0 3.2 2.8 0 3.0 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.7 -20 1.3 1.0 -40 Value is % of central banks in our sample hiking 0.0 rates - cutting rates, -0.2 -60 -1.0
Slide 9: Commodity price rise has led to reset in global interest rate expectations
Commodity price rise has led to reset in global interest rate expectations Most key central banks are clearly embarked on a rate hiking cycle Fed hiked in September; a second hike is 80% priced in for October and fully priced in by December Market interest policy rate 6.00 Central bank policy rate e
Slide 10: The global economy turns from a liquidity-led era towards an investment-intensive one
The global economy turns from a liquidity-led era towards an investment-intensive one QE unwind underway: DM balance sheets retreating, but still far Global trade rebounds- underpinning the capex upturn above pre-GFC norms 80 140 22.6 27.0 30 20.9 19.4 16.8 Balance sheet (% GDP) 15.9 15.7 16.4 15.2
Slide 11: Selected pockets supporting global growth: AI is one of them
Selected pockets supporting global growth: AI is one of them US real GDP ex of tech capex quite weak AI is the key export driver 5 210 2Y CAGR: 13% 4 190 (rebased to 100) 3 170 (%YoY) 2.4 150 2 2Y CAGR: 1% 130 1.4 1 Lowest ex recession 110 0 90 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 D
Slide 12: … second is government fiscal spending
… second is government fiscal spending Government debt has plateaued at historically high levels Fiscal deficits have settled well above pre-2020 norms 120 12.0 Fiscal deficit (% GDP) Avg: 8.8% 110 10.0 100 8.0 Avg: 4.4% 90 6.0 Avg: 3.9% 80 4.0 70 2.0 60 0.0 2004 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2
Slide 13: Global bond yields rise alongside higher US yields and mounting fiscal pressures
Global bond yields rise alongside higher US yields and mounting fiscal pressures US 2-yr yield trades above the Fed Funds rate consistently for first Global bond yields rise time since 2022 7 7 6.00 10 year Government bond (% , month end ) 6 6 5.00 5 5 4.00 4 4 3.00 3 3 2.00 2 2 1.00 1 1 0.00 0 0 -1
Slide 14: US treasury double long-bond buybacks in the face of surging yields
US treasury double long-bond buybacks in the face of surging yields US 30-year bond yield hit a two-decade high, well above 5.3% now DXY remains marginally high 5.50 110 5.00 4.50 106 4.00 3.50 3.00 102 102 101 2.50 101 2.00 99 1.50 98 98 98 1.00 0.50 Sep-06 Sep-13 Sep-20 Sep-05 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09
Slide 15: Dollar strength drives broad currency depreciation
10 20 30 0 -40 -30 -20 -10 Turkey Lira -29 Hungarian Forint -22 Colombian Peso -18 Korean Won Polish Zloty -16 -15 Taiwanese Dollar Source: Bloomberg, SBIFM Research African Rand Chinese renminbi -14 -13 -13 Thai Baht Philippine Peso DXY rallied 16% in 2022 vs. 1% now Malaysian Ringitt -13 -12 -12 %
Slide 16: Gold shines, but stretched: Strong momentum meets near-term overbought conditions
Gold shines, but stretched: Strong momentum meets near-term overbought conditions Parallel moves in Gold and Brent during 2022 energy shock Gold has seen a sharp rise ahead of this energy shock 135 2,200 100 90 125 2,100 80 115 2,000 70 105 60 1,900 95 50 1,800 40 85 30 1,700 75 20 65 1,600 10 - 55
Slide 17: Sentiment indicator is tad positive on near-term gold returns
Sentiment indicator is tad positive on near-term gold returns Marginal positivity in sentiment Valuation warrant caution 100 70 120 The figures for Gold Valuation framework -20 are percentiles. Median is 50%. Higher 90 value suggests expensive valuation. Lower 50 100 -10 80 value suggets cheap value
Slide 18: Can central bank buy more?
Can central bank buy more? Since the turn of the century…. Double click to long time period 23.0 80 21.0 67.6 70 19.0 60 17.0 50 15.0 36.1 13.0 40 11.0 30 21.2 9.0 20 7.0 10 5.0 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16 Jan-20 Jan-24 Sep-02 Sep-06 Sep-10 Sep-14 Sep-18 Sep-22 May-01 May-05 May-09 May-13 May
Slide 19: India Economic Activity
INDIA ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Slide 20: High frequency data heatmap (1/2)
High frequency data heatmap (1/2) Bank credit, and consumption-oriented data holds up (auto sales, tractor sales, consumer sentiment) %y-o-y FY24 FY25 FY26 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 GST collections (Rs. Billion) 11.7 9.4 5.6 1.3 2.0 2.8 2.1 2.5 -3.4 5.5 7.9 7.3 B
Slide 21: High frequency data heatmap (2/2)
High frequency data heatmap (2/2) Business related indicators show an improvement; Merchandise exports sees a sharp pick up %y-o-y FY24 FY25 FY26 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Manufacturing PMI* 57.2 57.4 57.3 55.0 55.4 56.9 53.9 54.7 55.0 54.2 53.5 52.8 Services PMI
Slide 22: Global factors turn partly favourable for India…
Global factors turn partly favourable for India… India's relative tariff disadvantage has reversed… …and India has been relatively successful in managing the crude import thus far 11.0 US effective import tariff rate by country (%) 12.0 40.0 Section 120.0 Liberation day IEEPA struck down 232 9.0 35.
Slide 23: Weak monsoon results in reduced agriculture activity; risks to agri-oriented sectors
Weak monsoon results in reduced agriculture activity; risks to agri-oriented sectors Rainfall is 12.3% below normal in September 2026 (vs. 13% below Crop sowing has declined so far normal in August) 27.24 Rainfall cumulative- deviation from normal (%) 3 2.0 30 2 0.9 1 0.1 15.2 20 10.45 0 8.12 10 -1
Slide 24: … though global commodity inflation has led to cost push pressures
… though global commodity inflation has led to cost push pressures Input goods cost rises sharply; slight moderation from May peak Final output prices are firming up but still lag input-cost inflation 30 8.0 25 7.0 6.9 20 16.6 6.0 15 14.8 5.0 10 4.0 5 3.0 0 2.0 1.0 1.9 -5 -10 0.0 -1.0 Aug-18 Aug-19
Slide 25: Credit led growth recovery in India
10 15 25 20 0 5 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 Mar-18 Sep-18 Source: RBI, SBIFM Research Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 4.72 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Bank credit (% y-o-y) Mar-23 Sep-23 22.14 Figures are adjusted for HDFC merger from 14th Jul'23 to 28th Jun'24 Mar-24 Credit led growth recovery in India Bank c
Slide 26: Export momentum builds in India
Export momentum builds in India Global trade rebounds, supporting export demand India’s exports growth recovers to 16% y-o-y in Q2 2026 (in line with global export growth) and further to 23% in Jul-Aug’26 22.6 27.0 20.9 30 19.4 43.0 36.1 50 16.8 35.0 15.9 15.7 16.4 15.2 32.4 31.5 31.3 13.7 12.9 11.8
Slide 27: Wealth effect: 5x jump in gold wealth and 3x in equity wealth
Wealth effect: 5x jump in gold wealth and 3x in equity wealth Value of Gold held with Indian households has jumped from 5x Equity related wealth has jumped 3x post COVID from INR 20tn to INR ~80tn to INR 400tn post COVID INR 70tn 120 25 23 23 105 20 19 100 20 17 16 80 15 80 15 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 1
Slide 28: Corporate capex momentum strengthens; 11% growth expected in FY27
Corporate capex momentum strengthens; 11% growth expected in FY27 Corporate capex reached Rs. 10.4 trillion in FY26 (BSE 500 Capex for BSE 500 Companies expected to expand 11% in FY27 ex-Financials) • Corporate capex for BSE 500 (ex-financials) is pegged at ₹10.4 trillion in FY26; extrapolation to ~
Slide 29: Infrastructure spending has plateaued; Private capex remains constructive
Infrastructure spending has plateaued; Private capex remains constructive Capital goods momentum remains strong while infrastructure is Government capital expenditure is weak subdued 20 FY (Apr-Aug) 48.1 IIP (% y-o-y) 60 18 43.4 46.8 50 16 27.8 40 14 21.1 20.6 20.1 18.7 18.2 30 12 20 10 3.0 10 8 0 6
Slide 30: Consumer indicators hold up; Though inflation and fading of GST base effects pose headwinds
Consumer indicators hold up; Though inflation and fading of GST base effects pose headwinds Consumer sentiment is resilient Auto sales (passenger vehicles and two wheelers) continue to be robust 120 120 90 % y-o-y, 3mma 110 110 96 70 100 93 100 50 90 30 25 80 19 70 10 60 -10 50 45 -30 40 -50 30 Aug-
Slide 31: Residential real estate activity moderates; commercial holds up
Residential real estate activity moderates; commercial holds up Launches exceeding sales point to early signs of stress Unsold inventory remains elevated across major cities 220 40.0 months to sell 4qtr rolling sum (in '000) 35.0 170 30.0 120 25.0 20.0 70 15.0 20 10.0 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug
Slide 32: India growth outlook: Broadly healthy, Nominal growth to improve in FY27
India growth outlook: Broadly healthy, Nominal growth to improve in FY27 • India’s real GDP growth came in at 7.8% y-o-y in Q1 FY27. • The growth print effectively belies the near-term concerns around the transmission of the energy shock to the Indian economy. • The quality of growth is encouraging.
Slide 33: Equity Market
EQUITY MARKET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Slide 34: Global equity markets see negative returns in Sep'26
0 2 4 6 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 5 -10 -5 INDONESIA -7.9 INDONESIA -7.0 MSCI India -6.9 MSCI India -6.1 INDIA NIFTY -6.8 INDIA NIFTY -6.1 FRANCE -6.1 PHILIPPINES -4.6 GERMANY -5.5 FRANCE -4.0 PHILIPPINES -5.4 PAKISTAN -3.7 Source: Bloomberg, SBIFM Research % m-o-m (US$ returns) HANG SENG -3.8 HANG SENG -3.7 %
Slide 35: Indian equity market snapshot: September 2026
Indian equity market snapshot: September 2026 Indian equity market performance in September 2026 (local YTD performance (local currency returns) currency returns 0 14.7 14.3 11.5 10.5 10.4 10.1 -2 20 15 % change Year-to-date -1.8 -4 10 -2.7 -2.9 -3.2 -3.4 5 -3.7 -4.0 -6 0 -5.1 -5.3 -5.5 -5.6 -5 -5.7
Slide 36: FIIs see outflows in September 2026
10 20 30 40 0 -30 -20 -10 2006 8 2007 19 2008 -13 2009 18 2010 29 2011 -1 2012 25 2013 20 2014 16 2015 2016 33 2017 8 2018 -5 2019 14 2020 23 FIIs see outflows in September 2026 2021 3.8 Source: Bloomberg, NSE market pulse, SBIMF Research 2022 -17.0 2023 21 2024 -2.1 Retail participation sees a turn
Slide 37: Q1 FY27 earnings: NIFTY PAT growth in double digits
10 30 40 20 50 0 -20 -10 20 40 60 80 0 -40 -20 100 120 Dec-14 2 Dec-14 -6 -5 -12 Jun-15 5 Jun-15 -2 1 0 Dec-15 5 Dec-15 -7 15 1 Jun-16 8 Jun-16 -3 11 -3 Dec-16 9 Dec-16 7 3 7 Jun-17 -7 Jun-17 -6 18 15 Dec-17 13 Dec-17 14 20 5 Jun-18 31 Jun-18 10 13 9 Dec-18 5 Dec-18 5 6 15 Jun-19 3 Jun-19 3 2 -1 Dec
Slide 38: Earnings revisions improved in September
Earnings revisions improved in September Earnings Upgrades to downgrades ratio improved in September Marginal Downgrade in FY27 earnings projection in last four months 90% Earnings upgrade -2.5 FY27 (Till Sep) 80% -6.8 FY26 downgrade- % chg 70% -3.3 FY25 60% -1.3 FY24 -4.9 FY23 50% 1.5 FY22 40% -2.4
Slide 39: Market optimistic about FY27 earnings growth despite considerable downgrades
Market optimistic about FY27 earnings growth despite considerable downgrades in recent months Earnings expected to recover in FY27 Sectoral breakup of NIFTY earnings outlook EPS Change No. of 1,222 1,400 40 1,081 1,059 FY26-29 1,011 1,200 Cos. FY26 FY27 FY28 FY29 30 (CAGR) 822 1,000 Nifty 3.9% 16.5%
Slide 40: Equity valuations correct in September
Equity valuations correct in September Sensex trailing PE ratio stood at 19.6 in Sep’26 vs. 21.0 in Aug’26 Earnings yield to bond yield spread has corrected 34.0 Current : 19.6 4.0% Current : -2.08% 30.0 Median : 21.0 2.0% Median : -2.65% Percentile : 41% Percentile : 28% 26.0 0.0% 22.0 -2.0% 18.0 -
Slide 41: Polarization remains low, remains favorable towards large caps
Polarization remains low, remains favorable towards large caps Market capitalization/GDP expensive vs. history at 93rd percentile Mid caps and small caps: Market polarization remains favourable reading towards large caps 200 Current: 130 60% Current : 36.0% Median: 80 Average : 47.2% 150 Percentile:
Slide 42: Equity market sentiment remains above zero
Equity market sentiment remains above zero Equity sentiment remains above zero while marginally falling from Equity sentiment remains above zero August levels 100% 2.50 Zone of Complacency => SELL 100% 80% Zone of Complacency => SELL 80% 1.50 60% 60% R² = 0.3141 12m fwd returns 0.50 40% 40% 20% 20%
Slide 43: Equity Outlook: Focus on large caps, bottom-up stock selection
Equity Outlook: Focus on large caps, bottom-up stock selection, and sectors resilient to margin pressure • The global economy is shifting from a liquidity-led era to an investment-intensive one — supportive of nominal growth and capex-linked assets, but bringing higher financing needs, stickier infl
Slide 44: Fixed Income Market
FIXED INCOME MARKET MANAGEMENT LIMITED
Slide 45: Global Bond Market Snapshot: Rate hikes push sovereign yields higher
Global Bond Market Snapshot: Rate hikes push sovereign yields higher across markets Rising inflation and fiscal concerns drive an increase in sovereign yields across developed and emerging markets 10 Year Gsec Yield (% mth m-o-m change YTD change 2024 end 2025 end Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 end) (in bps)
Slide 46: Indian rates: Yields rise across the curve; CD rates the only exception
Indian rates: Yields rise across the curve; CD rates the only exception Short-end term rates reprice sharply higher; overnight rates stay below repo m-o-m YTD change Rates (%) 2024 end 2025-end Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 (in bps) (in bps) Repo rate 6.50 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 - - Overnight TREPS 6.75 5.25 5.
Slide 47: India G-Sec Yields move higher across the curve in September 2026
India G-Sec Yields move higher across the curve in September 2026 G-Sec yields firmed across tenors as crude prices climbed Yield (%) 3 Month 6 month 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Year 15 Year 30 Year 31-Oct-25 5.44 5.58 5.58 5.80 6.02 6.12 6.18 6.44 6.43 6.59 6.5
Slide 48: India's external account stress triggered RBI's measures in Jun'26
India’s external account stress triggered RBI’s measures in Jun’26 to attract dollar capital flows Current account deficit is contained Net capital inflows at record low in April 2026 6.0 1998: US$ 5bn RIB 2013: US$ 34 bn 10 4.8 2001: US$ 5.5 bn FCNR(B) 5.0 4.3 1991: US$ 1.6 bn India IMD deposits de
Slide 49: FCNR(B) inflows take durable liquidity to a record high
FCNR(B) inflows take durable liquidity to a record high, prompting RBI to drain the surplus FCNR(B) deposits doubled before scheme closure Durable liquidity touches Rs. 14 trillion as on 15th September 2026 20,000 15,000 13,935 12,829 10,000 10,794 5,000 4,667 0 -5,000 May-21 May-22 May-23 May-24 Ma
Slide 50: Durable liquidity to remain elevated: overnight rates will stay below repo
Durable liquidity to remain elevated: without further RBI action, overnight rates will stay below repo Durable liquidity is still seen at ~Rs. 8.75 trillion (~2.8% of NDTL) Overnight rates collapsed to 4.57%, below the SDF floor; they by end-December without RBI intervention have since recovered but
Slide 51: Surge in FCNR(B) inflows generated a wave of rupee liquidity
Surge in FCNR(B) related inflows generated a wave of rupee liquidity at the short end of the curve India G-Sec yield curve steepens at the short end Similarly, corporate bond yield curve sees some steepening at the short end 8.00 8.50 India GSec yield (%) 7.50 8.00 7.00 6.50 7.50 6.00 7.00 5.50 6.50
Slide 52: INR retains a weakening bias despite FCNR(B) support
INR retains a weakening bias despite FCNR(B) support Rupee hovers near 95–96/US$ amid geopolitical and oil-price Rupee is undervalued driven volatility 100 115 2015-16=100 110 90 105 80 100 70 95 60 90 85 50 80 Aug-13 Aug-14 Aug-15 Aug-16 Aug-17 Aug-18 Aug-19 Aug-20 Aug-21 Aug-22 Aug-23 Aug-24 Aug-2
Slide 53: FII flows could return to India?
FII flows could return to India? Lack of AI and over-valuation had driven FIIs out of India 120 100 76 +1 SD 80 60 54 60 Mean 36 50 40 20 -1 SD 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 Sep-12 Sep-19 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-13 Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Sep-17 Sep-18 Sep-20 Sep-21 Sep-22 Sep-23 Sep-24 Sep-25 Sep-2
Slide 54: RBI monetary policy: From patience to potential tightening
RBI monetary policy: From patience to potential tightening • The Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% at its latest meeting in August 2026. The stance remains at neutral. • FY27 headline inflation guidance cut 10 bps to 5.0%, core at a modest 4.3%; peak still expected in Q
Slide 55: Indian G-sec: Fundamentals, sentiments and valuation weakens
Indian G-sec: Fundamentals, sentiments and valuation weakens Historically energy price spikes are associated with rate hikes Fixed Income fundamental deteriorates: Rate hikes expected by market 9.50 140 2 20 8.50 120 15 1 100 10 7.50 80 0 6.50 5 60 -1 0 5.50 40 -2 -5 4.50 20 May-12 May-14 May-16 May
Slide 56: Indian G-sec valuations: neutral to marginally unattractive
Indian G-sec valuations: neutral to marginally unattractive G-sec spread vs. equity turns neutral Real rate attractiveness moderates- now in line with historical average 10year avg: 208 bps 800 Latest rank: 39 percentile 350 Latest: 251 bps (vs. 230 bps) 600 260 400 200 170 0 80 -200 -10 -400 -100 -
Slide 57: FYTD Gross SDL issuances at 87% of calendar
FYTD 27 Gross SDL issuances at 87% of calendar Q2 FY27 gross SDL issuances at ~92% of calendar SDL spreads widen marginally in September 2026 600 132 200 LTA since 2006: 55 bps 123 10 year avg. 57 bps 180 500 5 year avg. 47 bps 105 103 105 105 100 97 97 160 Latest:57 (vs. 55bps in August 2026) 89 90
Slide 58: FIIs turn net sellers of Indian government bonds since August 2026
FIIs turn net sellers of Indian government bonds since August 2026 after three months of inflows India witnessed debt outflows in August and September 2026 FII flows in EM bonds are muted despite healthy inflation adjusted returns; as risk premium vs. DM bonds is largely erased EM FII Debt inflow 10
Slide 59: Debt Outlook: Carry over duration
Debt Outlook: Carry over duration • Globally, inflation persistence has replaced disinflation, and most key central banks are now hiking rates. After a US Fed hike in September, markets price a high probability of another hike in October and 100% by December. • Long-term US yields have breached 20-y
Slide 60: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation is for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, solicitation of an offer to buy, or recommendation of any mutual fund units/securities or investment strategy. The views expressed herein are based on internal data, publicly available information
Slide 61: Contact Details
Contact Details SBI Funds Management Limited Call: 1800 425 5425 (A joint venture between SBI and AMUNDI) SMS: “SBIMF” to 7065611100 Corporate Office: 9th Floor, Crescenzo, Email: customer.delight@sbimf.com C-38 & 39, G Block, Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai - 400 051 Visit us @ www.face
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