Slide 1: Customers at the Center: 2019 Results and Guidance
Customers at the Center 2019 Results and Guidance Feb. 26, 2020
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented weather-normalized and core earnings per share, which are non-GAAP financial measures and may not be comparable to those of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information is include
Slide 3: Business Update
Business Update Warner Baxter Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ameren Corp.
Slide 4: Successfully Executed Our Strategic Plan in 2019
Successfully Executed Our Strategic Plan in 2019 • Delivered strong weather-normalized core earnings1 growth in 2019 – $2.4 billion in capital invested for benefit of customers and communities we serve Weather-Normalized Core Diluted EPS1 • Strong operational performance delivering safe, reliable an
Slide 5: Delivering Strong Value to our Customers
Delivering Strong Value to our Customers Increased Customer Improved Reliability1 Affordable Rates2 Outage JD Power Satisfaction3 Duration (min) ¢/KWh Score 300 +43% 15 750 +17% Better Better 725 734 276 731 250 13.19 12.85 723 10 700 200 10.08 10.01 690 675 150 663 157 5 650 651 100 625 628 50 0 60
Slide 6: Strong Track Record of EPS and Dividend Growth
Strong Track Record of EPS and Dividend Growth Weather-Normalized Core Weather-Normalized Dividends Paid per Share3 Earnings per Diluted Share1 Dividend Payout Ratio $3.50 +60% or $2.00 +20% 80% $3.50 $1.98 ~8% CAGR 2013 to 2019 $1.92 $3.32 75% $3.10 2013 to 2019 $1.85 $3.05 $1.75 70% $1.78 $2.88 $2
Slide 7: Expect to Deliver Strong Long-Term EPS Growth
Expect to Deliver Strong Long-Term EPS Growth • Expect 2020 EPS in a range of $3.40 to $3.60 Long-Term EPS Growth and • Remain on track to deliver strong long-term earnings 2020E EPS Guidance growth – Affirm expected 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from 2018-20231,2 2024 – Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from 2020-2024
Slide 8: Executing Our Strategy in 2020 and Beyond
Executing Our Strategy in 2020 and Beyond Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks • Constructive frameworks for investment in all business segments 2019-2024E Regulated Five-Year Rate • Expect ~8.7% rate base CAGR from 2019-2024 Infrastruct
Slide 9: Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with MoPSC
Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with MoPSC on Feb. 26 Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks • $1.0 billion invested in 2019 to improve reliability and provide clean energy to the customers and communities we serve – Significant in
Slide 10: Executing Our Strategy – Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives
Executing Our Strategy – Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks Missouri Electric Rate Review Update • In Feb. 2020, reached non-unanimous stipulation and agreement with MoPSC Staff, OPC and certain i
Slide 11: Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives, Cont'd
Executing Our Strategy – Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives, Cont’d Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy and economic policies Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution • Downstate Clean Energy Affordability Act1 (HB 5673/SB 3977) introduced in Feb. 2020 – Allows uti
Slide 12: Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives, Cont'd
Executing Our Strategy – Regulatory and Legislative Initiatives, Cont’d Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy and economic policies Ameren Missouri • MoPSC approved request to defer and amortize Callaway Energy Center refueling and maintenance outage expenses over ~18
Slide 13: Executing Our Strategy – Renewable Energy Investments
Executing Our Strategy – Renewable Energy Investments Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers, shareholders and environment • Build-transfer agreements in place for 700 MW of wind generation in Missouri, ~$1.2 billion investment, to comply with Miss
Slide 14: Executing Our Strategy – Investing in the Energy Grid
Executing Our Strategy – Investing in the Energy Grid Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers, shareholders and environment • Investing to modernize energy grid – Provide a more safe, reliable, resilient and secure energy grid – Enable two-way energ
Slide 15: Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade
Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade Modernizing grid and investing in cleaner generation for the long-term benefit of customers, shareholders and environment Investment Plan 2020-2024 Investment Opportunities 2025-2029 $36B+ ($ billions) $20+ Strong Pipeline of Reg
Slide 16: Our Value Proposition for Customers, Shareholders and Environment
Our Value Proposition for Customers, Shareholders and Environment Strong long-term Attractive Attractive total growth outlook dividend return potential • Affirm 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from • Annualized equivalent dividend rate • Track record of delivering strong 2018-20231,2 of $1.98 per share provides r
Slide 17: Financial Update
Financial Update Michael Moehn Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Ameren Corp.
Slide 18: 2019 Earnings Analysis
2019 Earnings Analysis Key Earnings Variance Drivers ↓ Ameren Missouri earnings — Lower electric retail sales: ~$(0.26) Core1 Diluted EPS • Weather vs. prior year: ~$(0.29); vs. normal ~+$0.03 2018 vs. 2019 — Callaway refueling and maintenance outage vs. none in 2018: $(0.09) — Higher property tax e
Slide 19: Strong Rate Base Growth in All Regulatory Jurisdictions
Strong Rate Base Growth in All Regulatory Jurisdictions Increased five-year infrastructure investment plan by $2.7B reflecting increased investment in all segments1 $16 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure Investment 2019 to 2024E Regulated Five-Year Rate 2020-2024 Infrastructure Rate Base2 Base CAGR
Slide 20: Expected 2020-2024 Funding Plan
Expected 2020-2024 Funding Plan • Cash from Operations – Return of capital through depreciation in rates – Return on equity-financed portion of rate base – Expect income tax payments totaling ~$150 to ~$200 million from 2020-2024 • ~$1.6 to $1.7 billion of income tax deferrals and tax asset utilizat
Slide 21: 2020 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions
2020 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions ↑ New electric service rates expected to be effective as early as Apr. 1, 2020 — Reflecting new infrastructure investments and lower fuel and transportation costs ↑ Callaway refueling and maintenance outage scheduled for fall 2020 vs. spring 2019:
Slide 22: 2020 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions
2020 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions ↑ Higher expected year-end rate base reflecting infrastructure investments Ameren Illinois — Year-end estimated rate base: ~$3.6 billion compared to ~$3.4 billion in 2019 Electric ↓ Allowed ROE of 8.0% based on forecasted 2020 average 30-year Treas
Slide 23: Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Illinois
Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution • In Dec. 2019, the ICC approved a $7 million net annual decrease in electric formula rates effective Jan. 2020, consistent with request – All-in 2020 residential electric rates, for customers taking delivery and energy supply from Am
Slide 24: Summary
Summary Expect to deliver strong earnings growth in 2020 with guidance in a range of $3.40 to $3.60 per diluted share Successfully executing our strategy; well positioned for future growth Strong long-term growth outlook • Affirm 6% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2018-20231 • Expect 6% to 8%
Slide 25: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 26: Four Constructive Regulatory Frameworks
Four Constructive Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated: Formula ratemaking • Allowed ROE is 10.38%1, includes MISO participation adder of 50 basis points; ~54% average equity ratio Ameren • Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation Transmission • Constru
Slide 27: Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Transmission
Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Transmission • First and second complaint cases to reduce MISO’s FERC base ROE – In Sep. 2016, FERC order in first complaint case set base ROE of 10.32% (resulting in ROE of 10.82% including 50 bps adder1 for MISO participation) – In June 2016, ALJ recommended a 9.
Slide 28: Building a Brighter and Cleaner Energy Future
Building a Brighter and Cleaner Energy Future Innovative Programs to Meet Customer Needs and Rising Expectations Utility-owned solar Subscription program generation facilities for MO available to MO residential non-residential customer Neighborhood Community and small business parking lots, open lan
Slide 29: ESG: Environmental Focus – Achieving Balance Responsibly
ESG: Environmental Focus – Achieving Balance Responsibly • Transitioning Ameren Missouri’s generation to a cleaner, more diverse portfolio in a responsible fashion – 2017 preferred plan1 includes addition of 700 MW of wind Ameren’s Planned CO2 Emissions generation by 2020 and 100 MW of solar generat
Slide 30: ESG: Social and Governance Focus – Culture of Sustainability
ESG: Social and Governance Focus – Culture of Sustainability • Diverse Board of Directors focused on strong accountability and governance Hyperlinked below – Board committed to maintaining a balance of perspectives, qualifications, qualities and skills • ~55% women or minorities • Average tenure of
Slide 31: Ameren Organizational Structure and External Debt Balances
Ameren Organizational Structure and External Debt Balances1 $ in millions as of Dec. 31, 2019 All Moody’s outlooks “Stable”; all S&P outlooks “Stable” Ameren Corporation (Baa1/BBB+) Sr. Unsecured (Baa1/BBB) - $1,150 Commercial Paper (P-2/A-2) - $153 Ameren Missouri Ameren Illinois ATXI (Baa1/BBB+) (
Slide 32: 2020 Cash Flow Guidance
2020 Cash Flow Guidance 2020 2020 Capital Expenditures ($ millions) Guidance ($ millions) Net cash provided by operating activities $ 2,045 $4,030 Capital expenditures (4,030) $350 $550 Other cash used in investing activities (30) $695 Dividends: common and preferred1 (495) Free cash flow ~$ (2,510)
Slide 33: GAAP to Core Earnings Per Share Reconciliations
GAAP to Core Earnings Per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $1.18 $2.40 $2.59 $2.68 2.14 $3.32 $3.35 Exclude results from discontinued operations 0.87 — (0.01) — — — — Less: Income tax benefit / expense 0.05 — (0.20) — — — — Excl
Slide 34: Weather-Normalized Earnings per Share Reconciliations
Weather-Normalized Earnings per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Core1 Diluted EPS $2.10 $2.40 $2.56 $2.68 $2.83 $3.37 $3.35 Ameren Missouri weather impact included in Electric 0.03 0.05 (0.04) 0.16 (0.07) 0.43 0.04 Margins Less: Income tax expense (0.01)
Slide 35: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar MARCH 2020 APRIL 2020 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 Morgan BAML New York UBS Stanley Power Investor European Utilities Utilities Meetings Tour Conf. Conf. 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Wells Q1 Quiet F
Slide 36: Select Regulatory Matters
Select Regulatory Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • Pending electric rate review filing: Docket No. ER-2019-0335 • Smart Energy Plan filing: Docket No. EO-2019-0044 • Order approving request regarding Callaway Energy Center outage expenses: Docket No. EU-2020-0114 • Order approving natura
Slide 37: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations AFUDC – Allowance for funds used during construction IEIMA – Illinois Energy Infrastructure Modernization Act ALJ – Administrative Law Judge IRP – Integrated resource plan ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois ISRS – Infrastructure System Replacement Surc