VinaCapital VN100 ETF · HOSE:FUEVN100
VinaCapital VN100 ETF — VinaCapital — Investor Conference 2021
14 slides from VinaCapital VN100 ETF's conference presentation, Oct 27, 2021
Slide 1: Investor Conference 2021 – Banking Sector
INVESTOR CONFERENCE 2021 – BANKING SECTOR OCTOBER 27TH, 2021 Classified: Internal
Slide 2: Asset Quality
ASSET QUALITY 20 150 ‘DISTRESS’ RATIO (%) - VIETNAM 120 15 90 10 60 5 3.9 4.0 30 2.2 1.6 1.8 2.1 0 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21 2021E Reported NPL Legacy restructured loans Covid restructured loans Reserve cover (RHS) Adjusted reserve cover (RHS) By YE21, ‘distressed loans’ may be close
Slide 3: Reserve Cover & Collateral Cover
RESERVE COVER & COLLATERAL COVER RESERVE COVER (%) - VIETNAM COLLATERAL COVER (%) 200 250 166.6 198 210 190 150 200 180 182 139.7 163 175 102.5 150 100 100 50 50 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks Reserve cover is high. Collateral c
Slide 4: Real Estate Exposure
REAL ESTATE EXPOSURE REAL ESTATE LOANS (%) - VIETNAM 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 12.5 10.0 5.0 6.9 0.0 2018 2019 2020 Jul-21 Mortgages/Total loans Loans to developers/Total loans Credit growth Real estate loans growth Real Estate (RE) is 20% of loans, with 60%+ of RE loans in mortgages 4| Source: VinaCapita
Slide 5: Asset Quality
ASSET QUALITY ‘FORBEARANCE’ IN VIETNAM 5% 90% 3.9% 4.0% 4% 80% 4% 70% 3% 60% 2.4% 3% 50% 2% 40% 2% 30% 1% 20% 1% 10% 0% 0% Interest rate cut New loans at concessionary rates Repayment reschedule (LHS) ~25% of loans had their borrowing rates lowered, & over 50% of new loans are extended at concession
Slide 6: Banks Sector Performance
BANKS SECTOR PERFORMANCE BANK INDEX vs VNI 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Bank index VNINDEX The banks sector has led the VNI higher 6| Source: VinaCapital, data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage, Bloomberg Classified: Internal
Slide 7: Consumer Loans
CONSUMER LOANS CONSUMER LOANS/GDP (%) - VIETNAM CONSUMER LOANS/GDP (%) 120 101 100 89 75 80 27.7 29.7 61 24.7 60 54 20.9 16.7 37 40 30 12.0 18 5.9 5.8 5.5 4.7 20 11 0 VN CN IN TH ID PH MY SG KR 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Lots of upside for consumer lending, given its low penet
Slide 8: Asia Banks – Regional Comparison
ASIA BANKS – REGIONAL COMPARISON VIETNAMESE BANKS vs REGIONAL BANKS 2.5 PBR 2.0 VN 1.5 TW IN SG 1.0 MY ID PH 0.5 CN TH ROE - - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 8| Source: VinaCapital, data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage, 1H21 ROE, BBG Classified: Internal
Slide 9: Returns
RETURNS BANKS ROA (%) - VIETNAM BANKS ROE (%) - VIETNAM 3.0 30 2.5 24.2 2.4 25 2.0 21.9 1.7 20 1.5 19.1 1.2 15 1.0 10 0.5 5 0.0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21 SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks 9| Source: VinaCapital, data of 12 banks u
Slide 10: Valuations
VALUATIONS Sector PER (x) - VIETNAM Sector PBR (x) - VIETNAM 22 20 4.0 18 3.5 16 3.0 14 2.5 12 2.0 10 1.5 8 1.0 6 0.5 4 0.0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 10| Source: VinaCapital, data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage, Bloomberg Classified: Internal
Slide 11: The Rise of Domestic Investors
THE RISE OF DOMESTIC INVESTORS Local Retail Investors dominate 100% 8% 90% 6% 80% 70% 60% 50% 86% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Local retail (%) Local institution (%) Foreign institution (%) Domestic investors account for 92% of turnover Banks dominate the index weights (Local Retail 86% and Local Institutions
Slide 12: Margins
MARGINS NET INTEREST MARGIN (%) - VIETNAM CASA (%) - VIETNAM 9.0 8.0 23.1 23.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.3 3.0 19.9 2.0 3.50 3.65 3.62 3.64 4.01 3.16 3.10 1.0 0.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21 Net int margin Yield on IEAs Cost of IBLs 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21 Margins have been
Slide 13: Credit Growth
CREDIT GROWTH CREDIT GROWTH (% YoY) - VIETNAM 35 30 25 22.8 20 18.0 15 14.8 10 5 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 6M21 SOCBs Private Banks 12 Banks Credit growth led by private banks 13| Source: VinaCapital, SBV, data of 12 banks under VinaCapital coverage Classified: Internal
Slide 14: Vietnam Banks – Valuations
VIETNAM BANKS – VALUATIONS Mkt Cap. 3M ADT PER (x) PBR (x) ROE (%) ROA (%) NP growth (%) (USDm) (USDm) 19A 20F 21F 22F 19A 20F 21F 22F 19A 20F 21F 22F 19A 20F 21F 22F 19A 20A 21F 22F BANKS 62,354 11.3 12.7 12.1 9.6 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.7 20.5 19.2 20.6 20.7 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 28.8 15.5 13.5 42.7 ACB 3,733 11.