Slide 1: CDM Study
CDM Study Stan But October 19, 2011 Manager, Economics & Load Forecasting 1
Slide 2: Agenda
Agenda • OEB Directive • Stakeholder Recommendations • CDM Study Objectives • Study Findings • Preliminary CDM Impacts for 2011-2013 • Summary 2
Slide 3: OEB Directive
OEB Directive • In its Decision with Reasons for EB-2010-0002, the Board noted the following: – “there does not appear to be a broadly accepted methodology in place to identify reasonably anticipated effects of any CDM program on the throughput of the respective distribution or transmission systems.
Slide 4: Stakeholder Recommendations
Stakeholder Recommendations • Hydro One held two stakeholder consultations in February and March 2011 • Below is a summary of recommendations from the above sessions: – An in-house study prepared by Hydro One staff instead of an external study by consultant – A review of CDM categories and methodolo
Slide 5: CDM Study Objectives
CDM Study Objectives • Objective 1: Develop a robust methodology to forecast CDM impacts using comprehensive and well-defined categories • Objective 2: Develop a methodology to incorporate the CDM impacts into Hydro One’s load forecast 5
Slide 6: Literature Review
Study Findings Literature Review • Utilities reviewed: – British Columbia, New York and California as recommended by stakeholders – Other major utilities in North America with CDM experience • Tools used: web-search and personal communication 6
Slide 7: Load Forecast Survey
Study Findings Load Forecast Survey • A web-based survey was sent to about 100 utilities/organizations in North America and 41 responses were received • The literature review and the survey provided a list of well-defined and comprehensive CDM categories: • Programs initiated by the utility • Progra
Slide 8: Load Forecast Survey (Contd…)
Study Findings Load Forecast Survey (Contd…) • Three methods are commonly used to incorporate CDM impacts in the load forecast: Method 1: Forecast using actual load (without any CDM adjustment) Method 2: Forecast CDM impacts as an explanatory variable on the right hand side of the econometric equati
Slide 9: Review of load forecast methodologies for incorporating CDM
Study Findings Review of load forecast methodologies for incorporating CDM in the load forecast • Hydro One undertook a review of the three methods to evaluate the advantages and challenges associated with each method • The review results suggested that: – Method 3 is the most robust, technically so
Slide 10: Alignment
Study Findings • Alignment with the OPA 10
Slide 11: Alignment (Contd…)
Study Findings • Alignment with the OPA (Contd…) – Hydro One worked closely with the OPA to better understand the savings assumptions used in their current conservation forecast Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Obtain Determine Derive Derive CDM detailed Hydro One monthly savings by savings specific CDM
Slide 12: Preliminary CDM Impacts for 2011-2013
Preliminary CDM Impacts for 2011-2013 Hydro One Distribution Energy Savings by Category 800 700 600 Energy Savings (GWh) 500 2011 400 2012 2013 300 200 100 0 Hydro One and OPA Other influences Codes & Standards Rate Structure Increased Programs Conservation Effect CDM Category 12
Slide 13: Summary
Summary – The literature review provided a list of well- defined and comprehensive categories – The survey results helped Hydro One better understand the methodologies used by utilities to incorporate CDM impacts into the load forecast – The comparative review of methodologies helped identify an eff
Slide 14: Thank You
Thank You 14