Antero Resources Corporation · NYSE:AR
Antero Resources — Q1 2023 Earnings Presentation
18 slides from Antero Resources's earnings presentation, Apr 27, 2023
Slide 1: First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call Presentation
First Quarter 2023 Earnings Call Presentation April 27, 2023
Slide 2: Legal Disclaimer
Legal Disclaimer This presentation includes “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR’s control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activi
Slide 3: Drilling and Completion Performance
Drilling and Completion Performance During the quarter, AR set a world record of 12,340 lateral feet drilled in 24 hours and a new company record of 16 completion stages in a day (1) Top 10 Marcellus Drilling Lateral Footages Completion Stages Stimulated per Day (footage in 24-Hour Period) (average
Slide 4: Antero Well Performance vs. Peers
Antero Well Performance vs. Peers Antero leads its Appalachian peers in well productivity trends, and importantly, continues to increase its liquids productivity AR Oil & NGLs Cumulative Well Productivity AR Cumulative Well Productivity vs. Peers 200 800 +20% vs 87% Increase peer avg 180 Normalized
Slide 5: Low Decline Rate Leads to Lower Maintenance Capital
Low Decline Rate Leads to Lower Maintenance Capital Antero Decline Rates vs Peers (Percent Decline) 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 5-yr 56% 3-yr 44% 1-yr 23% Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6 Peer 7 Peer 8 AR Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: April 2023 Enverus Intelligence Research note. Note: Repr
Slide 6: U.S. Exports of Propane Hit Record Highs in 2023
U.S. Exports of Propane Hit Record Highs in 2023 U.S. Exports of Propane/Propylene, Quarterly Average (MMBbl/d) (MMBbl/d) Weekly Record High Set on April 14, 2023 of 1.85 MMBbl/d 1.8 2020 2021 2022 2023 1.7 1.6 Western Economies Reopening 1.5 Initial COVID 2023 Avg YTD: Onset COVID ‘Normal’ & 1.4 1.
Slide 7: VLGC Shipping Buildout Reduces Freight Rates
“VLGC” Shipping Buildout Reduces Freight Rates -Very Large Gas Carriers (“VLGC”) transport LPG (propane and butane) Propane VLGC additions of +300 MBbl/d in 2023 expected to lower shipping costs Global VLGC Fleet Baltic Rate VLGC Futures 50 46 new ships in 2023 405 ($/Metric Ton) (11 delivered throu
Slide 8: U.S. is the Likely Incremental LPG (Propane & Butane) Supplier
U.S. is the Likely Incremental LPG (Propane & Butane) Supplier The U.S. is the incremental supplier and exporter of NGLs for growing global demand World C2+ NGL Production U.S. Gulf Coast LPG Export Capacity (MBbl/d) U.S. AND WORLD C2+ NGL PRODUCTION MBbl/d) GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2024 vs. 2022 Export
Slide 9: China PDH Buildout Continues
China “PDH” Buildout Continues -Propane Dehydrogenation (“PDH”) Facilities produce propylene ultimately for plastics China is adding over 400 MBbl/d of new PDH capacity in 2023-2024, a 70% increase to the existing operational capacity of 570 MBbl/d China’s Planned 2023/2024 PDH Units Globally planne
Slide 10: Free Cash Flow Break-Even
Free Cash Flow Break-Even Antero’s liquids uplift and natural gas premium takeaway drive its low breakeven pricing Liquids Revenue Uplift – 2023E 2023E Unhedged FCF Natural Gas Price Break-even ($/Mcf of Gas Production) ($/Mcf Henry Hub) $2.77 Maintenance Capital Interest Expense Cash Costs + Basis
Slide 11: Prudent Share Repurchase Story Since Program Inception
Prudent Share Repurchase Story Since Program Inception Since the inception of the program, AR has purchased 30.4 MM shares for ~$1 Bn, or 10% of common shares outstanding Quarterly Share Repurchase ($MM) $2,500 30 MM Shares Or ~10% of total $2,105 shares outstanding (1)(2) $2,000 ~50% of FCF $1,500
Slide 12: Antero's Differentiated Strategy
Antero’s Differentiated Strategy 2023E Liquids % of Total Revenue(1) 45% 41% ✓ Maintain liquids-rich development 26% 22% (NGLs and Oil) 11% 9% ― Liquids pricing uplift plus pricing tailwinds from China re-opening AR Peer 1 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 3 Peer 2 % of Natural Gas Sold Out of Basin(2) 100% ✓ Sell
Slide 13: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 14: Guidance
Guidance 2023 Guidance Ranges Net Production (Bcfe/d) 3.25 – 3.30 Net Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d) 2.10 – 2.15 Net Liquids Production (Bbl/d) 185,000 – 195,000 Natural Gas Realized Price Expected Premium to $0.05 to $0.15 NYMEX ($/Mcf) C2 Ethane Realized Price - Expected Premium to ($1.00) - $1.00
Slide 15: Antero Resources Non-GAAP Measures
Antero Resources Non-GAAP Measures Adjusted EBITDAX: Adjusted EBITDAX as defined by the Company represents income or loss, including noncontrolling interests, before interest expense, interest income, unrealized gains or losses from commodity derivatives, but including net cash receipts or payments
Slide 16: Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation
Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Three Months Ended March 31, 2022 2023 Reconciliation of net income (loss) to Adjusted EBITDAX: Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Antero Resources Corporation $ (156,419) 213,431 Net income (loss) and comprehensive inco
Slide 17: Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation
Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Twelve Months Ended March 31, 2023 Reconciliation of net income to Adjusted EBITDAX: Net income and comprehensive income attributable to Antero Resources Corporation $ 2,268,621 Net income and comprehensive income attributable to noncontrolling intere
Slide 18: Antero Resources Total Debt to Net Debt Reconciliation
Antero Resources Total Debt to Net Debt Reconciliation December 31, March 31, 2022 2023 Credit Facility $ 34,800 180,100 8.375% senior notes due 2026 96,870 96,870 7.625% senior notes due 2029 407,115 407,115 5.375% senior notes due 2030 600,000 600,000 4.250% convertible senior notes due 2026 56,93