Ryanair Holdings Plc · EURONEXT:RYA
Ryanair — Q3 FY24 Earnings Presentation
20 slides from Ryanair's earnings presentation, Jan 29, 2024
Slide 1: Q3 Results – Jan. 24
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Slide 2: Europe's Lowest Cost Airline
Eur ope’s Lowest Cost Air line Lowest fare/lowest cost EU airline No. 1, Traffic: 183.5m (FY24) No. 1, OTP & reliability No. 1 EU ESG airline – Sustainalytics 300 MAX-10 order – Decade of Growth Fin. strength + lowest cost = L.T. winner 2 2
Slide 3: Europe's No. 1 Coverage & Choice
E u r o p e ’s N o. 1 C ove r a g e & C h o i c e 94 bases 235 apts, 37 countries 574 aircraft – 374 on order 3,600 daily flights 300m pax p.a. FY34 3 3
Slide 4: Europe's Lowest Costs – Gap Widens vs US Carriers
Eur ope’s Lowest Costs – Gap W idens vs US Car rier s € per pax RYA WIZ EZJ LUV AAL DAL UAL Staff/Efficiency 8 8 13 75 64 71 83 Airport & Hand. 8 14 33 12 13 41 17 Route Charges 5 5 6 - - - - Own’ship & Maint. 8 16 14 18 30 24 30 S, M & Other 4 4 13 27 57 55 76 Unit Cost Ex Fuel 33 48 79 132 164 191
Slide 5: Q3 FY24 Results
Q3 FY24 Results Q3 FY23 Q3 FY24 Guests (m) 38.5 41.4 +7% Load Factor 93% 92% -1pt Revs. (€bn) €2.31bn €2.70bn +17% Op. costs (€bn) €2.15bn €2.72bn +26% PAT (€m) €211m €15m -93% 9mth PAT (€m) €1.58bn €2.19bn +39% 5 5
Slide 6: Ind. Leading Balance Sheet (BBB+)
Ind. Leading Balance Sheet (BBB+) Mar. 23 Dec. 23 (€’bn) (€’bn) Assets 11.7 12.6 B737 fleet debt free Cash 4.7 2.9 Strong liq. post bond & €1.9bn capex Total 16.4 15.5 Accruals 6.6 4.8 Debt 4.2 2.8 Net Cash: €0.15bn – Dec. 23 S/H Funds 5.6 7.9 Total 16.4 15.5 6 6
Slide 7: Fortress Balance Sheet Drives Growth
Fo r t r e s s B a l a n c e S h e e t D r i ve s G r ow t h Modest debt profile: Sep. 25 – €0.85bn May 26 – €1.20bn Capex: B-8200 falling (FY25 €1.3bn) B737 fleet debt free Cash flows rising as capex falls 2 year capex holiday & NG disposals Cost adv. widens as comps. rising debt & flee
Slide 8: Current Developments
Cur r ent Developments Sudden removal by OTA Pirates in Dec. welcome – protects c’mers Hedged 65% of FY25 fuel @ $79bbl – €450m saving secured S.24 EU cap. constrained (consol., P&W, OEM delivs.) Boeing deliv. delays slows growth – MAX-9 grounding Record S.24 sched. (+9%) – 2,600 routes in
Slide 9: OTA Pirate Sites
O TA P i r a t e S i t e s RYA removed from most ‘OTA’ Pirate sites in Dec. − Pressure from Consumer Protection Agencies? − IRE High Court ruling – inj. against Flightbox (unlawful scraping) − RYA KYP (Know Your Passenger) cust. initiatives (verification) Good for consumers – no o/chgs., scams o
Slide 10: OTA Overcharge & Scam Pax – Jan. Survey
O TA O v e r c h a r g e & S c a m P a x – J a n . S u r v e y OVERCHARGES OTP PRODUCT OTP PRICE RYA PRICE OVERCHARGE eDreams Alloc. Seats €26.99 €12.00 +125% Opodo 10kg bag €38.31 €18.79 +104% On Beach 20kg bag £34.99 £21.49 +63% INVENTED CHARGES eDreams “Prem.” Fee €17.99 €0 €17.99 Opodo “Prem.” F
Slide 11: EU Cap. Constrained S.24
EU Cap. Constrained S.24 EU consol. cuts cap. (ITA, Air Eur., TAP, SAS) P&W engine issue cuts 10% A320. cap. MRO slots full & repairs take 2yrs + Big backlog of OEM delays to late 2020s Boeing delays limit RYA growth in S.24 Constrain EU cap. facil. S.24 pricing / yields 11 11
Slide 12: Boeing Delays Constrain S.24 Growth
Boeing Delays Constrain S.24 Growth 136 x B737 G’Changers @ 31 Dec. (fleet 574 acft.) Due 57 delivs. by Apr. 24. Expect 50 by end Jun. Delays cuts FY25 traffic to 200m (prev. 205m) No certainty over further delays B737 MAX-9 temp. grounded (only MAX-9s) Boeing qual. control must improve
Slide 13: ESG Update
ESG Update MSCI upgrade to ind. leading ‘A’ (from ‘BBB’) Sig. inv. in fuel effic. acft. (“G’changers” & MAX-10) NG winglets (1.5% fuel red.) – 409 acft. by 2026 SAF MOUs: Neste, OMV, Repsol, Shell, ENI (12.5% 2030) RYA uplifts SAF from OMV at Vienna airport. − 10% already secure R. Neri jo
Slide 14: MAX-10 Order = Decade Of Growth
MAX-10 Or der = Decade Of Growth Fleet Pax p.a. (m) Pax Grth Cum. Grth (i) FY23 537 169 - - FY27 652 230 - +36% +2% +39% 300 MAX-10 Order FY28 667 235 FY29 680 240 +2% +42% FY30 700 250 +4% +48% FY31 730 265 +6% +57% FY32 760 280 +6% +66% FY33 790 290 +4% +72% FY34 800 300 +3% +80% (i) Pax growth vs
Slide 15: Outlook
Outlook FY24 Traffic: 183.5m pax (+9%), despite lower Q3 LF & Boeing delays FY24 ex-fuel unit cost + c.€2.50 (lower LF & resil.) (i) FY24 PAT range narrows – €1.85bn to €1.95bn (was €1.85bn to €2.05bn) EU capacity constrained S.24 – drives S.24 prices Boeing deliv. challenges remain (205m
Slide 16: Appendices
Appendices RYANAIR gy te SUEZ Lauda MALTA AIR RYANAIR RYANAIR
Slide 17: Appendix: Ind. Leading Hedging Pos. Extended At Lower Costs
A ppendix: Ind. Leading Hedging Pos. Extended At Lower Costs (i) (i) (ii) (iii) Hedge Swaps (bbl) Caps (bbl) Opex €/$ Carbon H2 FY24 90% 78% ($90) 12% ($86) 89% ($1.08) FY24 H1 84% 76% ($90) 8% ($86) 90% ($1.08) 100% (€81) H1 FY25 65% 65% ($79) - 73% ($1.11) H2 FY25 65% 65% ($80) - 72% ($1.12) FY25
Slide 18: Appendix: Best In Class ESG
Appendix: Best In Class ESG Ratings: Member of: Committed to: 18 18 18
Slide 19: Appendix: Capital Allocation Policy
A ppendix: Capital Allocation Policy Strong BS Invest in growth S/holder returns* • V. strong liquidity • Fund pay incr. (done) • Board sets Div. Policy • €4bn into C-19 • Fund B737 capex (done) • c. €0.35 per share • Strong invest grade rating • Invest in resil.: maiden ord. div. • Repay debt − Tra
Slide 20: Appendix: Fleet FY27 – FY34 (300 MAX-10 order)
Appendix: Fleet FY27 – FY34 (300 MAX-10 order) 790 800 800 Yr. end Fleet 760 300 x MAX-10s 730 700 680 MORE SEATS 667 652 LESS FUEL 8 28 68 122 169 218 268 300 LOWER COSTS 23 18 600 9 1 537 ADDIT. CAPAC. 28 FOR AIRPORTS 210 210 210 TO GROW 210 98 210 210 210 LOWER APT. & 400 210 HAND.COSTS 411 411 4