First Citizens Bancshares, Inc. · NASDAQ:FCNCA

First Citizens Bancshares — Investor Presentation (June 2025)

31 slides from First Citizens Bancshares's investor presentation, Jun 25, 2025

  1. Slide 1: Making Sense: Monthly Market Update

    Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP Chief Investment Officer Making Sense Phillip Neuhart, SVP Monthly Market Update Director of Market and Economic Research Recorded on June 25, 2025

  2. Slide 2: What are we going to cover?

    What are we going to cover? 1. Economic Update: Growth Outlook | Tariff Update | Inflation & Labor Market | Fed Policy | Consumer Spending 2. Market Update: Equity Markets | Valuations | Fixed Income

  3. Slide 3: Economic & Policy Update

    Economic & Policy Update Growth Outlook | Tariff Update | Inflation & Labor Market | Fed Policy | Consumer Spending

  4. Slide 4: Economic Forecasts Have Turned Slightly More Pessimistic

    Economic Forecasts Have Turned Slightly More Pessimistic Economic Projections for Q4 2025 Median Professional Consensus 5.0% January 1 Today 4.5% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% GDP (full year Consumer Industrial Growth in CPI

  5. Slide 5: Current Expectations Show Global Growth Slowing but Not Stalling

    Current Expectations Show Global Growth Slowing but Not Stalling World Economic Outlook Consensus Real Economic Growth Estimates 2024 2025 Estimate as of: Actual Growth Dec. 2024 Today World 3.2% 3.0% -0.3% 2.7% United States 2.8% 2.1% -0.7% 1.4% Euro Area 0.9% 1.0% -- 1.0% Canada 1.5% 1.8% -0.6% 1.

  6. Slide 6: Most Forecasters See the Economy Slowing but Skirting Recession

    Most Forecasters See the Economy Slowing but Skirting Recession US Real GDP Growth and Median Professional Forecast Probability of Recession, Next Twelve Months GDP growth Potential growth rate Median Professional Forecast 5.0% 100% 90% 4.0% 80% Consensus forecast 70% 3.0% 60% 2.0% 50% 40% 1.0% 30%

  7. Slide 7: The US Has Suspended Half of New Tariffs, but Others Are in the Works

    The US Has Suspended Half of New Tariffs, but Others Are in the Works Contribution to US Effective Tariff Rate With proposed "reciprocal" 90-day tariffs and re-escalation of Reduction in China tariffs: 30% China tariffs 30% 25% Effective tariff rate 20% with pending sector tariffs: 16% 15% 90-day Cu

  8. Slide 8: Importers Are Already Paying Billions More in Fees at the Border

    Importers Are Already Paying Billions More in Fees at the Border Customs Duties 160 Billions of dollars, 12-month rolling sum 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Treasury Department, Bloomberg. Data through May 2025. May value is projected. 8

  9. Slide 9: As Tariffs Set In, Inflation Was Tracking Modestly Above the Fed's 2% Target

    As Tariffs Set In, Inflation Was Tracking Modestly Above the Fed’s 2% Target AverageAverage Annualized Annualized Inflation Rates Overweighting Data Inflation Rates Overweighting From Data Recent From Recent Months Months 12% PCE Core PCE 10% CPI Core CPI Fed's 2% target 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% 2015 2016

  10. Slide 10: Markets Have Modest Expectations for Rate Cuts Starting Later This Year

    Markets Have Modest Expectations for Rate Cuts Starting Later This Year Federal FederalFunds Funds RateRate and Market-Implied and Market Implied Path Path 6% Observed Market pricing 5% Today: 4.4% 4% End-2025: 3.9% 3% End-2026: 3.2% 2% 1% 0% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Source: Bloomberg, Fir

  11. Slide 11: Job Growth Has Been Fairly Healthy in Recent Months

    Job Growth Has Been Fairly Healthy in Recent Months 800 Payroll PayrollJob Growth Job Growth Thousands, three-month moving average 700 600 500 400 300 Estimated "breakeven" rate of job growth 200 100 0 Feb '21 Aug '21 Feb '22 Aug '22 Feb '23 Aug '23 Feb '24 Aug '24 Feb '25 Source: Department of Labo

  12. Slide 12: More People Are Receiving Jobless Benefits, but the Number Is Still Low

    More People Are Receiving Jobless Benefits, but the Number Is Still Low Number of People Receiving Unemployment Insurance Benefits 8 Million 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Source: Bloomberg. Data through 6/6/2025. 12

  13. Slide 13: Consumer Expenditures Are Holding Up, Still Led by Services Spending

    Consumer Expenditures Are Holding Up, Still Led by Services Spending PersonalPersonal Consumption Expenditures Consumption Expenditures 50% Percent change, year-over-year 40% Services 20-year average: Goods Services: 4.9% 30% Goods: 4.1% 20% 10% +6.3% 0% +4.1% -10% -20% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

  14. Slide 14: Household Finances Are Growing More Strained

    Household Finances Are Growing More Strained Delinquency Rates Percent of Total Loans Outstanding in Accounts 90+ Days Delinquent Credit Card Loans (left axis) 15% Auto Loans (right axis) 5.5% 14% 5.0% 13% 4.5% 12% 4.0% 11% 3.5% 10% 3.0% 9% 2.5% 8% 7% 2.0% 6% 1.5% 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

  15. Slide 15: Federal Debt Is Poised To Rise Significantly Under Various Scenarios

    Federal Debt Is Poised To Rise Significantly Under Various Scenarios US Federal Debt and Congressional Budget Office Forecasts Percent of GDP 130% 123.8 120% 117.1 117.1 110% 97.8 100% 90% 80% 73.3 70% 60% 2014 2024 2034 2034* 2034 previous baseline previous baseline, previous baseline, with tax cut

  16. Slide 16: Market Update

    Market Update Equity Markets | Valuations | Fixed Income

  17. Slide 17: Global Asset Prices Have Recovered After the April Selloff

    Global Asset Prices Have Recovered After the April Selloff Total Market Returns As of 6/23/2025 Feb. 19 Since YTD US peak to Feb. 19 peak 2025 Apr. 8 trough US Equities -19.3% -1.9% +2.7% Intl. Developed -8.5% +7.5% +16.0% Equities Emerging Market -11.4% +5.3% +11.5% Equities Aggregate Fixed +1.0% +

  18. Slide 18: The S&P 500 Has Staged a Terrific Rebound

    The S&P 500 Has Staged a Terrific Rebound S&P 500 Index 6500 -2% 6000 5500 -8% 5000 -5% -19% 4500 4000 -10% Total return since 10/12/2022: +75% -25% 3500 Jan '22 May '22 Sep '22 Jan '23 May '23 Sep '23 Jan '24 May '24 Sep '24 Jan '25 May '25 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 6/23/2025. 18

  19. Slide 19: Companies Are Contending with Commodity and Currency Swings

    Companies Are Contending with Commodity and Currency Swings Crude Oil Futures Price US Dollar Index $90 112 $85 110 $80 108 $75 106 $70 104 $65 102 $60 100 $55 98 $50 96 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun '24 '24 '24 '24 '24 '24 '2

  20. Slide 20: S&P 500 Valuations Have Contracted Modestly

    S&P 500 Valuations Have Contracted Modestly S&P 500 Next Twelve Months Price-to-Earnings Ratio 28X 24X 20X +1 Standard Deviation 16X Average 12X -1 Standard Deviation 8X 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 Source: Strategas. Data as of 5/31/2025. 20

  21. Slide 21: Gross Margins Are at a Healthy Level

    Gross Margins Are at a Healthy Level Median Gross Margin by Market Cap. Group, Percent of Top 3000 US Equities with Gross Margin >60%, 65% Ex-Financial and Real Estate Ex-Financials and Real Estate Mega T500 Ex-Mega 29% 60% 27% 55% 25% 50% 23% 45% 21% 40% 19% 35% 17% 30% 15% 2011 2017 2023 1999 2001

  22. Slide 22: Higher Margin Businesses Justify Higher Valuations

    Higher Margin Businesses Justify Higher Valuations Median EV-to-Forecast Sales by Gross Margin Decile Cap. Weighted Price-to-Forward Earnings Top 3000 US Equities with Revenue >$100m Top 10 5.0x 45x Top 11-500 4.5x 40x 4.0x 3.5x 35x 3.0x 30x 2.5x 25x 2.0x 20x 1.5x 1.0x 15x 0.5x 10x 0.0x 5x High 2 3

  23. Slide 23: Corporate Earnings

    Corporate Earnings ▪ 2025 estimated growth is 9.0% 19% Estimated Next 12-Month S&P 500 Operating Margin 18% ▪ 2026 estimated growth is 13.7% 17% 17.7% 16% ▪ Average growth since 1950 is 7.6% 15% 14% 13% 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 Source: FactSet, Bloomberg. Data as of 6/20/2025. 23

  24. Slide 24: IPO Volume Remains Muted

    IPO Volume Remains Muted 300 Number of IPOs Over Last 12 Months US Equities with Deal Size > $100mm 250 200 150 100 50 0 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 Source: Trivariate Research 24

  25. Slide 25: S&P 500 Price Target

    S&P 500 Price Target Next Twelve-Month S&P 500 Price Target Percent Next Twelve Months Change from Price Level 6/24/25 Bear 4,700 -22.0% Base 6,400 6.2% Bull 6,950 15.3% Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, First Citizens Wealth 25

  26. Slide 26: Fixed Income Is Still Offering Attractive Yield

    Fixed Income Is Still Offering Attractive Yield US Fixed Income Indices Yield-to-Worst Index As of 6/23/2025 As of 12/31/2024 2-Year Treasury 3.9% 4.2% 10-Year Treasury 4.3% 4.6% Aggregate Bond 4.6% 4.9% Intermediate Government/Credit 4.2% 4.6% Municipal Bond 4.0% 3.7% Investment Grade Corporate Bon

  27. Slide 27: The Treasury Yield Curve Has Steepened This Year

    The Treasury Yield Curve Has Steepened This Year US Treasury Yield Curve 4.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.6% 4.9% 4.5% 4.8% 4.6% 4.4% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8% 3.9% 3.8% 3.6% As of Latest date - June 23 3.4% Dec. 31, 2024 3.2% 1 3 6 1 2 3 5 7 10 20 30 MM M Yr Yr Yr Yr Yr

  28. Slide 28: Bond Spreads Show Risk Levels Are Low for Corporate Borrowers

    Bond Spreads Show Risk Levels Are Low for Corporate Borrowers US Fixed Income 1,200 Option Adjusted Spreads in Basis Points High Yield Spread 1,000 Investment Grade Spread 800 600 400 200 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Source: Bloomberg. Data as of 6/23/2025. 28

  29. Slide 29: Geopolitical Event & Equity Market Table

    Geopolitical Event & Equity Market Table Stock Market Performance around Geopolitical Events Time to Time to 12- bottom recover prior Size of 1-week 1-month 3-months 6-months months (trading level (trading selloff from from from from from Event Event date days) Days) (%) bottom bottom bottom bottom

  30. Slide 30: Making Sense: Market & Economic Research

    First CitizensWealth Market & Economic Research Making Sense Brent Ciliano, SVP Chief Investment Officer In Brief | A look at the week ahead in under two minutes every Monday morning Phillip Neuhart, SVP Q&A Videos | Monthly conversations covering 2-3 of the top Director of Market and questions we’r

  31. Slide 31: Making Sense FirstCitizensWealth: Authors and Important Disclosures

    Making Sense FirstCitizensWealth™ Authors Important Disclosures This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, specific investment strategy, Brent Ciliano, CFA | SVP, Chief Investment Officer recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or in

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