Piraeus Bank S.a. · ATHEX:TPEIR
Piraeus Bank — Investor Presentation (May 2026)
94 slides from Piraeus Bank's investor presentation, May 2026
Slide 1: Global Macro Trends
Μάιος 2026 Global Macro Trends Τα Στενά του Ορμούζ εξακολουθούν να αποτελούν ρυθμιστή των εξελίξεων στην παγκόσμια οικονομία Economic Research & Investment Strategy Global Economics & ESG Research
Slide 2: Διεθνείς Μακροοικονομικές Τάσεις
Διεθνείς Μακροοικονομικές Τάσεις Παρόλο που η πολεμική σύρραξη στη Μέση Ανατολή συμπληρώνει εντός ολίγου τους τρεις μήνες, μία βιώσιμη διευθέτησή της δεν φαί νεται ακόμη ορατή. Οι εμπλεκόμενες πλευρές μετρούν τα πλεονεκτήματα και τις αδυναμίες τους, αποδίδοντας κρίσιμη σημασία στον έλεγχο των Στεν
Slide 3: Global Macro Trends
Global Macro Trends Although the armed conflict in the Middle East is approaching its third month, a sustainable resolution does not yet appear w ithin reach. The parties involved are weighing their respective strengths and weaknesses, attaching critical importance to control of the Strait of Horm
Slide 4: Main Macroeconomic Indicators – Market Consensus
Main Macroeconomic Indicators – Market Consensus US Actual Estimates % Y/Y avg 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2026 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2027 Q1 2025 2026 2027 Real GDP Q/Q % SAAR 3.8 4.4 0.5 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 Headline PCE PI % Y/Y 2.4 2.7 2.8 3.1 3.6 3.4 3.2 2.7 2.6 3.3 2.4 Core PCE % Y
Slide 5: Bird’s Eye View
Bird’s Eye View US Economy EA Economy China Economy Source: Economic Research & Investment Strategy 5
Slide 6: The Global Bird’s-Eye View
The Global Bird’s -Eye View |Global GDP growth has remained resilient, with our leading indicator signaling a modest acceleration; however, this momentum is likely to fade if current geopolitical tensions persist. Piraeus Bank “World” Leading Economic Indicator & Economic Growth JP Morgan Global For
Slide 7: The Global Bird’s-Eye View: EM vs DM growth differential
The Global Bird’s -Eye View |The growth differential between emerging markets and developed markets is expected to remain at below average levels for 2026/28. Real GDP Growth EM – DM Growth Differential 15 Above average 2.5 Above average & closing & widening 10 2 Emerging Economies % Υ/Υ 1.5 2006Q3
Slide 8: Global Economic Activity
Global Economic Activity | China’s export momentum returned in April after a pause in the previous month and global growth is moderating as leading indicators and monetary conditions remain relatively stable. BBG World Growth Tracker & China Exports KOF Global Barometer Indicator & China Monetary Co
Slide 9: Global Trade
Global Trade | World trade in February recorded a significant increase mainly due to frontloading demand. World Trade World Trade Tracer 2.0 Seasonally & Expansion Downturn 1.5 Trend Adjusted 1.5 Index 1 Feb'26 1.0 0.5 Sep '19 0.5 0 0.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -1 -1.
Slide 10: Global Trends: Supply Chain Pressure
Global Trends | The NY Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure index in April recorded a historical high since July 2022 driven by the trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Bloomberg Financial Conditions Indices Global Economic & Trade Policy Uncertainty (Caldara & Iacoviello ) 3 1,200 Accommodative E
Slide 11: Global Trends: China credit and South Korean exports
Global Trends | China’s credit decreased further in April, while South Korea’s export improvement comes from an AI -led boom in shipments. China Credit Impulse (9m lead) & Global industrial production South Korean Exports & Global Industrial Production MMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSNJMMJSN
Slide 12: Global Trends: Global inflation
Global Trends | Global inflation continued to increase in April, while the NY Fed Global Supply Chain index spiked up signaling supply strain and delays. China Export Prices & Global Inflation Global Economic Activity vs Global Supply Pressure 15 5 150 10 10 4 100 5 8 Dallas Fed Index of Global 3 50
Slide 13: Global Trends: Real policy rates and core inflation
Global Trends | EA’s real policy rate remains in negative territory since Jun’25. Core CPI eased in the EA, while edging slightly higher in the US and China. Global Real Policy Rates US, EA, CN US, EA, CN Core Inflation 3.0 4.5 8 US Real Rate | LHS 2.0 4.0 7 US 1.0 3.5 6 EA Real Rate | LHS 5 0.0 3.0
Slide 14: Bird’s Eye View
Bird’s Eye View US Economy EA Economy China Economy Source: Economic Research & Investment Strategy 14
Slide 15: US Business Cycle
US Business Cycle | ISM Manufacturing has crossed into the expansion phase. US Business Cycle | Based on ISM Manufacturing Indicator US Business Cycle | Based on Major US Economic Variables 3 Downturn Expansion 2 Expansion Downturn 1 Exports 2 New Orders ISM Μanufacturing PCE 0 1 NFIB ISM Services J
Slide 16: US Recession Indicators
US Recession Indicators | The 10YR3M spread and the ISM Manufacturing New Order Index remain firmly above the threshold levels consistent with recession periods. 10 Year and 3M US Treasury Yields Spread ISM Manufacturing New Order Index 450 80 400 350 70 300 250 60 200 54.1 150 50 100 92.0 45.0 50 4
Slide 17: Conference Board Survey
Conference Board Survey | Consumer Expectations rose in April partially offsetting a decrease in the Current Situation component . The difference between the Leading and Coincident indicators narrowed in March. Difference between Consumer Expectations and Current Situation Difference between Leading
Slide 18: US Macro Expectations
US Macro Expectations | Economic surprises remain positive. Negative inflation surprises strengthen in April. Growth expectations are being revised lower and inflation expectations higher for 2026. Growth Rate Expectations* 2.6 2026 Growth Rate 2.4 Economic & Inflation Surprises 2.2 2.0 1.8 300 90 1
Slide 19: US Leading Indicators: ISM Manufacturing
US Leading Indicators | The ISM Manufacturing Index was unchanged in April. The Inventories subindex rose more than the New orders component. ISM Manufacturing & New Orders Indices ISM Manufacturing & New Orders Index Minus Inventories Index 70 80 70 30 ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index minus ISM M
Slide 20: US Leading Indicators: ISM Services
US Leading Indicators | ISM Services index fell to 53.6 in April and there was a significant decrease in the new orders index. ISM Services & New Orders Indices ISM Services & New Orders Index Minus Inventories Index 70 70 80 30 ISM Services New Orders Index 3m lead |RHS ISM Services New Orders Inde
Slide 21: US Industrial Production and Business Investment
US | Industrial Production rose 0.7% in April (+1.35% yoy). Pick up in Core Capital Goods and Business Investments in Q1 26. Industrial Production & ISM Manufacturing Core Capital Goods Orders & Business Investment 80 15 20 30 75 Business Investment % Y/Y |LHS 15 Industrial Production 10 20 70 % Y/Y
Slide 22: US Retail Sales and Consumer Expectations
US | ISM Services decreased in April, though advance Retail sales rose 0.5% in April on a monthly basis (+4.9% yoy). Consumer expectations fell further in May. Personal Consumer Expenditure & University of Michigan Consumer Retail Sales & ISM Services Expectations Index 90 20 140 15 Retail Sales SA
Slide 23: Housing Market: Residential investment
Housing Market | Residential investment declined further in Q1 but there is an improvement in House Permits. Home builders' expectations rose in May though affordability concerns continue to weigh heavily on buyers. Residential Investment & NAHB Index Residential Investment & House Permits 30 100 30
Slide 24: Housing Market: New home sales
Housing Market | New home sales rose in Feb & Mar though 30 -year mortgage rates remain above 6 percent. The S&P/Case Shiller National Home Price Index posted a modest 0.7% annual gain in February. NAHB Index & S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index US new home sales and 30 -year mortgage rates 25 100 16
Slide 25: Fiscal Policy: Fiscal thrust
Fiscal Policy |Still too loose vs unemployment. There was a slight improvement in the Fiscal Balance to GDP ratio in Q1 but challenges ahead remain. Fiscal Thrust Fiscal Policy vs Unemployment Tight Fiscal Policy 10 2 20 Unemployment Rate Annual change in (Reverse) | RHS 15 quarterly primary 5 4 bal
Slide 26: Fiscal Policy Sustainability
80 20 40 60 0 100 120 140 Q4 1971 Q1 1974 Q2 1976 concerning. Q3 1978 Q4 1980 Debt / Nominal GDP Q1 1983 Q2 1985 Q3 1987 Q4 1989 Q1 1992 Q2 1994 Q3 1996 Q4 1998 Q1 2001 Q2 2003 Q3 2005 Source: Economic Research & Investment Strategy Q4 2007 Q1 2010 Q2 2012 Q3 2014 Total Debt to Nominal GDP % Q4 2016
Slide 27: US GDP Outlook
80 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 75 70 Q3 2006 Q3 2007 Q3 2008 Q3 2009 Q3 2010 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2013 Q3 2014 GDP & ISM Manufacturing Indicator Q3 2015 Q3 2016 Q3 2017 Q3 2018 Q3 2019 Source: Economic Research & Investment Strategy GDP % Y/Y |RHS Q3 2020 Q3 2021 Q3 2022 ISM Manufacturing Index 2q lead |
Slide 28: US GDP Outlook: Bank lending and M2
US GDP Outlook | About 7% of banks tightened lending to small businesses. Real M2 growth is mildly expansionary. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices M2 growth vs GDP 80 15 25 15 Net % of Domestic Respondents Tightening 60 Standards for C&I Loans for 20 Small Firms (inverted)
Slide 29: US GDP Outlook: Q1 2026 growth
US GDP Outlook | GDP growth picked up in Q1 2026 following the government shutdown in Q4 2025. Growth Rate Outlook Growth Rate Estimate 15 15 8 33.8% 6 10 10 Real GDP % Y/Y Atlanta Fed 4 GDPNow Nowcast YoY (not SAAR) 5 5 2 2026Q2 3.2 0 0 0 Piraeus YoY -2 2026Q2 1.3 2026Q3 1 Real GDP (% Q/Q-AR) | LHS
Slide 30: US Labour Market: April Jobs report
US Labour Market | The April Jobs report surprised positively (Non -farm payrolls were higher and the unemployment rate remained stable). Employment & Leading Manufacturing Indicator Nonfarm payrolls & Unemployment 80 15 400 4.8 Non -Farm Payrolls (net monthly US Employees on Non -Farm change) & 3m
Slide 31: US Labour Market: Unemployment expectations
US Labour Market | Unemployment expectations rose again in April. The gap between those saying jobs were hard to get and jobs were plentiful widened in April. Unemployment Rate & expected increase in unemployment 1yr ahead (UMich ) Conference Board Labor market differential & Unemployment rate 80 5
Slide 32: US Labour Market: NFIB survey and wages
US Labour Market | According to April’s NFIB survey a net 30% reported raising compensation (from 33%). The JOLTS Quits Rate rose to 2% in March and Avg Hourly Earnings fell to 3.5%. US NFIB small business survey Wages & Quits Rate 54 5.5 3.0 48 5.0 2.8 Unable to fill positions 42 Average Hourly Ear
Slide 33: US Wage Tracker
US Wage Tracker | Private employment costs, Compensation plans, Average Hourly Earnings and Atlanta’s Fed Wage Tracker are trending lower. Employment Cost & Leading Indicator Wages & Leading Indicator 9 35 6 8 30 Employment Costs (Private 5 7 Atlanta Fed Wage Wages & Salaries) % Y/Y | RHS 25 Tracker
Slide 34: US Labour Market: Jobless claims
US Labour Market | Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 211k in mid -May. With job openings per unemployed at 1.14x, labour market tightness appears to have returned to more typical levels after the post -pandemic surge. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Demand & Supply in Labour Market 280 9 Weekly In
Slide 35: US Labour Market: Consumer sentiment and wages
US Labour Market | Consumer sentiment fell further in May. Private wages & salaries in Q1 continue to point to fading wage pressures. Consumer Sentiment & Unemployment Rate Compensation per Employee & Unemployment Rate 120 2 6 0 Unemployment Rate Employment Costs (Private (inverted) | RHS Wages & Sa
Slide 36: US Alternative Inflation Metrics
US Alternative Inflation Metrics | Flexible prices rose significantly in April while sticky prices continue to be elevated. Producer prices rose to 6.0% year -over -year. Import prices to 4.2% in April from 2.1%. Producers Price Index and Import prices Sticky & Flexible Prices 15 20 10 15 US PPI Fin
Slide 37: US Supply & Demand Gap
US Supply & Demand Gap | Price pressures are evident across regional Fed surveys (and ISM). Backlog of Orders & Customer Inventories Relation Leading Prices Indicators 80 100 ISM Manufacturing, Backlog of Orders Kansas Fed Prices Paid Diffusion Index Index 80 70 60 60 50 40 40 20 30 0 ISM Manufactur
Slide 38: US Inflation & Energy Prices
US Inflation & Energy Prices | Elevated energy prices pose an upside risk to PCE inflation. At the same time the ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid index rose significantly in April. Inflation Rates & Energy Prices Inflation Rate & Leading Prices Indicator 8 200 8 140 7 PCE PI % Y/Y | LHS 120 150 6 6 5 P
Slide 39: US Headline & Core Inflation
US Headline & Core Inflation | April data showed worrying signs of actual price pressures. Upside risks to future headline and core PCE. Consumers’ long -term view on inflation remains higher than market’s (3. 4% vs 2.5%). Inflation Rates Long -Term Inflation Expectations 8 4.5 LT Consumer Inflation
Slide 40: US Inflation Outlook
US Inflation Outlook | Our statistical model points to elevated PCE inflation through 2026. Our macro model has not yet captured the recent oil price increase. Inflation Rate Forecast | Statistical Model Inflation Rate Forecast | Macro Model 8 0.4 8.0 7 0.3 PCE % Y/Y 6 6.0 0.2 5 0.1 Consensus 4 4.0
Slide 41: US Interest Rates: Productivity and R*
US Interest Rates | After a strong increase in Q2 and Q3, US productivity growth decelerated in Q4 2025; real policy rate is currently below neutral rate HLW R* Population + Productivity growth (3y ma) & US Holson Laubach Williams R* & US Real Fed Fund Rate US Real Policy Rate (Fed Fund Rate - Core
Slide 42: US Interest Rates: Inflation expectations and R*
US Interest Rates | US Inflation expectation pick -up at the beginning of 2026; Fed Fund Rate & Adjusted HLW R* US Inflation & Inflation Expectations one year ahead US FFR Rate & Nominal HLW R* 5.5 7.5 US FFR % 3.75 7.0 5.0 6.5 US HLW R * + Core PCE 3.89 4.5 6.0 US HLW R * + 2% 2.92 4.0 5.5 US HLW R
Slide 43: US Interest Rates: Fed Speak Index
US Interest Rates | Fed Speak Index above zero; Negative price surprises relative to market expectations Fed Speak Index & Fed Fund Rate Inflation Surprises & Fed Fund Rate 6.0 25 7 100 Fed Fund Rate | LHS Fed Fund Rate | LHS 80 20 6 5.0 FED Speak Index | RHS Citi Inflation Surprise Index | RHS 60 1
Slide 44: US Interest Rates: Quits Rate and Consumer Expectations
US Interest Rates | JOLTS Quits Rate & Consumer Expectations point to lower Fed Fund Rate. Fed Fund Rate & Difference between Consumer Expectations and Fed Fund Rate & Quits Rate Current Situation Indicators (Conference Board) 6 3.1 9 80 Difference between Fed Fund Rate | LHS Fed Fund Rate | LHS 2.9
Slide 45: US Interest Rates: Kansas Fed and recession probability
US Interest Rates | Kansas Fed Labour Market Conditions (12m lead) & Recession probability vs policy rate Fed Fund Rate & Probability Recession based on Yield Curve 3M10Y Fed Fund Rate & Kansas City Fed Labour Market Conditions within 12M 7 2.0 7 90 Kansas City Fed Labour Market Fed Fund Rate | LHS
Slide 46: US Interest Rates: Market-implied hikes
US Interest Rates | Almost one hike is anticipated by markets for 2026. Implied Overnight Rate based on Overnight Index Swaps Interest Rates | Implied Fed Effective Rate 4.25 4.00 As of 18.05.26 3.75 4.00 Implied Fed Effective Implied Fed Effective 1.2 Rate Jun 2026 Rate Dec 2026 1.1 0.8 3.50 0.6 3.
Slide 47: US Interest Rates: Forward rates
US Interest Rates | Forward rates are above FOMC’s long -term target. Interest Rates | Fed Effective Rate Fed Fund Rate & US Treasury Yield 6 8 7 5 1Yr1Yr 2Yr1Yr 3Yr1Yr 6 FWD FWD FWD 4 US 2Yr Yield 5 4.07 3.125 4 Fed Fund Rate 3 3.75 3 2 Fed Effective Rate 2 FOMC Estimate for the Long-term Horizon 1
Slide 48: US Interest Rates: Taylor Rule Proxy Model
0 5 6 2 3 4 -1 1 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Apr-06 Fitted vs Actual Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-18 Source: Economic Research & Investment Strategy Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-24 Apr-25 Fitted Apr-26 Fed Fund Rate 3.28 3.75 US Interest Rates |
Slide 49: US Yields and Yield Curve
US | The Fed resumed cutting rates in 2025 by reducing its benchmark rates by 25 bps in September, October and December. Kept them on hold in 2026 so far. US 10-Year, US 30 -Year Yield & USD OIS 3Y1Y US Yield Curve 7 350 6 Slope 10Y2Y US 2Yr Yield US 10Yr Yield US-30Y Yield 300 6 5 5.12 250 US-10Y Y
Slide 50: US Long-Term Rates
US Long -Term Rates | Short -term rates 4 years in the future above target (3.125%). 10 - year rates above “fair” value given the current level of short -term rates (long history). LT Interest Rate Expectations US Yield vs Medium -Term Interest Rate Expectations 6 5 Jan 2010 - Dec 2024 Fed Fund Rate
Slide 51: Bird’s Eye View
Bird’s Eye View US Economy EA Economy China Economy Source: Economic Research & Investment Strategy 51
Slide 52: EA Business Cycle Watch
EA Business Cycle Watch | In April, economic sentiment moved back to the recession phase after a revision of historical data, while manufacturing confidence remained in the recovery phase. EA Business Cycle | Based on Manufacturing Confidence Indicator EA Business Cycle | Based on Economic Sentiment
Slide 53: EA Business Cycle
EA Business Cycle | Most key economic indicators now signal a recessionary phase, with the April ESI weakening across all countries, including the euro area. EA Business Cycle | Based on Major EA Economic Variables Business Cycle of EA Members | Based on Economic Sentiment Indicator 1.4 Downturn Exp
Slide 54: EA Macro Expectations
EA Macro Expectations | In May, economic surprises improved marginally . Consensus growth and inflation expectations for 2026 remained unchanged. Growth Rate Expectations* 2.0 2027 Growth Rate Economic & Inflation Surprises 1.5 200 300 1.0 Citi Inflation Surprise Index | RHS 2026 Growth Rate 200 0.5
Slide 55: EA Leading Indicators
EA Leading Indicators | In April, manufacturing & services confidence declined, as did the Leading Services demand index signaling an upcoming deceleration of activity. Manufacturing Confidence Index & Leading Manufacturing Orders Services Confidence Index & Leading Services Demand Index 20 20 60 40
Slide 56: EA Business Conditions: Industrial production
EA Business Conditions | Industrial production contracted further by 2.1% YoY in March, driven mainly by a significant decline in non -durable consumer goods and to a lesser extent in durable and intermediate goods. Industrial Production & PMI Manufacturing IFO Expectations & Business Investment 66
Slide 57: EA Business Conditions: Retail sales
EA Business Conditions | Retail sales rose 1.2% YoY in March, with non -food products recording the largest uptick, while automotive fuel contracted — suggesting consumers are pulling back in response to higher fuel prices Retail Sales Volume & PMI Services Final Consumption & Consumer Expectations
Slide 58: EA Construction: Residential investment
EA Construction | Resilience in the residential sector persists, underpinned by growing residential investment, despite softer construction confidence. Housing permits still rising at a healthy rate. Residential Investment & Construction Confidence Residential Investment & House Permits 15 25 40 25
Slide 59: EA Construction: Residential investment and loan demand
EA Construction | A stabilisation in residential investments is projected over the next few months, as demand for mortgages decreases further in Q2 2026. Residential Property Prices & Demand for loans (9m lead) Residential Investments & Demand for loans (9m lead) 75 10 75 15 Residential Property Pri
Slide 60: EA Fiscal Policy
EA Fiscal Policy | The fiscal deficit has moderated, with the unemployment rate remaining at historic lows. Fiscal Thrust Fiscal Policy & Unemployment Rate 8 0 6 Primary Surplus as % of Tight Fiscal Policy 6 Fiscal Balance % to GDP | LHS GDP | annual Change -1 7 4 -2 2 8 0 -3 -2 -4 9 -4 -5 10 -6 -6
Slide 61: EA Fiscal Policy: Debt sustainability
80 50 60 90 70 100 110 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Debt / GDP Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Source: Economic Research & Investment Strategy Debt as a % of GDP Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 -1 1 Q4 20
Slide 62: EA GDP Outlook: Credit impulse
EA GDP Outlook | Credit impulse tightened in Q1 2026, while credit standards for lending to businesses improved in Q2 2026. EA Credit Impulse & GDP growth rate GDP & Bank Lending Standards 10 14 10 -15 12 GDP growth rate Y/Y % | LHS 8 8 -10 6 10 -5 6 EA Credit Impulse | RHS 8 0 4 4 6 5 2 2 4 10 0 0
Slide 63: EA GDP Outlook: New orders and real M1
EA | The contraction in manufacturing new orders eased in Q 2 2026, whereas the small deterioration in real M1 points to slightly tighter liquidity conditions. GDP & New Orders Indices GDP & Real M1 growth rate 10 30 10 20 20 Real M1 growth rate 3m lead | RHS Leading Manuf New Orders Index 2q lead |
Slide 64: EA GDP Outlook: Sentiment
EA GDP Outlook | Economic and manufacturing sentiment picked up providing some green shoots. GDP & Manufacturing Confidence Index GDP & Economic Sentiment Index 15 30 15 140 Manufacturing Confidence Index 2q lead | RHS 130 20 10 10 120 Economic Sentiment Index 2q lead | RHS 10 5 5 110 0 100 0 0 -10
Slide 65: EA GDP Outlook: Real GDP growth
EA GDP Outlook | Real GDP grew by 0.8% YoY in Q 1 2026 from 1.3% in Q 4 2025 (0. 1% QoQ) and is projected to grow at a slower rate. Growth Rate Outlook Growth Rate Estimate 5 15 8 4 6 Real GDP % Q/Q | LHS 10 3 Real GDP % Y/Y Consensus 4 2026Q2 0.8% 2 5 2026Q3 0.7% 2 1 0 0 0 Long -term average -1 Pir
Slide 66: EA Labour Market
EA Labour Market | Number of unemployed persons decreased in March, as sentiment and manufacturing indicators remain soft in the euro area . Unemployment & Leading Sentiment Index Unemployment & Leading Manufacturing Index 130 -20 20 -20 Unemployed Persons % Y/Y Reversed Values | RHS Unemployed Pers
Slide 67: EA Wage Tracker
EA Wage Tracker | The Indeed wage indicator increased at 2.09% in March from 2.43% in February. The ECB’s Wage Tracker indicates a modest wage growth increase in 2026, as negotiated wages spiked in Q1 2026. EA Wage Indicators Core Inflation & Wages 6 6 Indeed Wage Indicator % Y/Y 5 5 4 4 ECB Negotia
Slide 68: EA Inflation Pressures
EA Inflation Pressures | Headline CPI accelerated as expected to 3.0% in April from 2.6% in March, while Core CPI decreased to 2.2% from 2.3%. Consumer inflation expectations surged further in April. Inflation Rate Long -term Inflation Expectations 12 25 4 70 Headline CPI % Y/Y | LHS 10 60 20 3 8 Lo
Slide 69: EA Inflation & Energy Prices
EA Inflation & Energy Prices | Brent’s sharp jump keeps oil prices biased to the upside amid geopolitical tensions, while manufacturing price expectations remain elevated. Inflation Rate & Oil Prices Inflation Rate & Leading Manufacturing Prices Index 12 JOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJOJAJ
Slide 70: EA Inflation Outlook
EA Inflation Outlook |The 2% target is expected to be missed for the year according to our statistical model. The Macro model that includes the price of Brent points to higher inflation ahead. Inflation Rate Forecast | Statistical Model Inflation Rate Forecast | Macro Model 12 11 Base Effect | RHS 0
Slide 71: EA Interest Rates: Productivity and R*
EA Interest Rates | EA population and productivity growth have stopped falling; real policy rate below HLW neutral rate (R*) Population + Productivity growth (3y ma) & EA Holson Laubach Williams R* & EA Real Policy Rate (Depo - Core HICP) EA Real Policy Rate (Depo - Core HICP) 3 4 Population + Produ
Slide 72: EA Interest Rates: Inflation expectations and R*
EA Interest Rates | EA Inflation expectations one year ahead on an upward trend; Depo Rate & Adjusted HLW R* EA Inflation & Inflation Expectations one year ahead EA Depo & Nominal HLW R* 5.5 5.5 EA Depo Rate % 2.00 5.0 5.0 EA HLW R * + Core HICP 2.33 4.5 4.5 EA HLW R * + 2% 2.03 4.0 4.0 EA HLW R * +
Slide 73: EA Interest Rates: ECB Speak Index
EA Interest Rates | ECB Speak Index is trending up; Inflation surprises are close to zero ECB Speak Index & ECB Deposit Rate Inflation Surprises & ECB Deposit Rate M M M 4.5 300 4.5 40 ECB Deposit Rate | LHS 4.0 4.0 250 ECB Depo Rate | LHS 30 3.5 3.5 ECB Speak Index | RHS 200 20 3.0 3.0 2.5 150 2.5
Slide 74: EA Short-Term Rates: Forward rates
EA Short -Term Rates | Forward rates suggest higher levels of interest rates Interest rates | Market Expectations ECB Policy Rate vs German 2Yr Yield 5 4.5 EUR OIS fwd 4.0 9Yr1Yr 4 (3mma) 3.5 DE 2Yr Yield 2.71 3 1Yr1Yr 2Yr1Yr 3Yr1Yr 3.0 ECB Main Refin Rate FWD FWD FWD 2 2.5 2.15 2.0 1 ESTER Overnigh
Slide 75: EA Short-Term Rates: Market-implied hikes
EA Short -Term Rates | Almost 3 hikes are anticipated by the markets by the end of 2026 Implied Overnight Rate based on Overnight Index Swaps Interest Rates | Implied ECB Effective Rate 3.00 3.00 As of 18.05.26 Implied ECB Effective Rate DEC 2026 2.75 2.75 3.2 Implied ECB Effective 3.1 2.9 Rate Sep
Slide 76: EA Interest Rates: Wages and persistent inflation
EA Interest Rates | ECB Depo Rates, Negotiated Wages & Persistent common component of Inflation ECB Depo Rate & Negotiated Wages ECB Depo Rate & Persistent Common Component of Inflation 5 6 5 7 Persistent Common ECB Deposit Rate | LHS ECB Negotiated Wages % Y/Y | RHS ECB Deposit Rate | LHS Component
Slide 77: EA Interest Rates: Taylor Rule Proxy Model
EA Interest Rates | Taylor Rule Proxy Model & ECB Rate Fitted vs Actual Residuals 5 1.5 ECB Policy Rate 4 1.0 3 0.5 2.00 2 0.0 1.52 Fitted 1 -0.5 0 -1.0 -1 -1.5 Apr-17 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-19 Apr-18 Apr-21 Apr-17 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-16 Apr-21 Apr-18 Apr-15 Apr-19 Apr-20 Apr-23 Apr-24 Apr-25
Slide 78: EA Rates: German yield curve
EA Rates | After four straight cuts in 2025, the ECB kept its key interest rates unchanged. German 10Y2Y spread turned positive at the end of Q3 2024 and has steepened since. DE 10-Year, DE 30 -Year Yield & Eonia 3Y1Y German Yield Curve 5 5 Slope 10Y2Y DE 2Yr Yield DE 10Yr Yield 280 240 4 4 DE -30Y
Slide 79: EA Long-Term Rates
EA Long -Term Rates | Given the current level of short -term rates, long -term bonds are near “fair value” Long -term Interest Rate Expectations DE Yield vs Medium -term Interest Rate Expectations 5 6.00 Jul 2005 - Dec 2024 Jan 2025 - today 5.00 4 4.00 18.05.2026 Eonia 9 Y1Y y = 0.9512x + 0.1868 DE
Slide 80: Bird’s Eye View
Bird’s Eye View US Economy EA Economy China Economy Source: Economic Research & Investment Strategy 80
Slide 81: Chinese Business Cycle
Chinese Business Cycle | The majority of economic variables are positioned in the recession phase CN Business Cycle | Based on China OECD Leading Indicator CN Business Cycle | Based on Major CN Economic Variables 2.0 Downturn Expansion 2 Expansion Downturn 1.5 Jan 2021 1 1.0 Export Trade 0.5 0 China
Slide 82: Chinese Macro Expectations
Chinese Macro Expectations | Sub 5% growth expectations for 2026 & 2027. Inflation is expected to remain too low. Growth Rate Expectations (Consensus) 4,7 2026 Growth Rate 4,6 Economic & Inflation Surprises 4,5 4,4 4,3 200 80 4,2 Citi Inflation Surprise Index | RHS 4,1 60 2027 Growth Rate 4,0 150 3,
Slide 83: Chinese Investment Capacity
Chinese Investment Capacity | There is significant potential for more efficient capital allocation China credit -efficiency ratio China Incremental Capital Output Ratio 20 % 14 12 15 10 China ICOR ratio 10 8 5 6 Ratio of annual change in 4 nominal GDP to annual 0 change in total loans China ICOR rat
Slide 84: CN: Manufacturing PMI and fixed asset investment
CN | The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI increased to 52.2 in April; Contraction in fixed asset investment Industrial Production & Caixin Manufacturing Fixed Assets Investment 50 40 58 40 Industrial Production % Y/Y | RHS 40 30 56 Fixed Assets Investrment - 30 S&P Global Manufacturing ΡΜΙ | Infrastruct
Slide 85: CN: Services PMI and domestic demand
CN | April saw a slight increase in the S&P Global Services PMI but domestic demand remains subdued Retail Sales & Caixin Services PMI Real GDP & Car Sales 60 40 20 100 S&P Global Services PMI | LHS 55 30 15 Real GDP % Y/Y | LHS 50 50 20 10 45 10 0 5 40 0 Retail Sales % Y/Y | RHS Car Sales % Y/Y | R
Slide 86: CN GDP Outlook
CN GDP Outlook | Economic growth accelerated to 5% in Q1 ’26. The government target range for 2026 is set at 4.5% – 5%. GDP Growth Rate Carry Over Effect 10 25 10 8 20 9 6 8 15 4 7 Real GDP % Q/Q | LHS 10 6 2 5 4.6% 5 0 0 4 -2 -5 3 -4 Real GDP % Y/Y | RHS 2 -10 -6 1 -8 -15 0 2017 2019 2021 2018 2023
Slide 87: CN GDP: Electricity consumption and OECD indicator
CN GDP | Trends in electricity consumption and the OECD Leading Indicator suggest that growth is likely to move slightly down from its current level. Real GDP & China OECD Leading Indicator Real GDP & Electricity Consumption 20 30 20 25 15 15 20 Electricity Consumption % Y/Y Real GDP % Y/Y | LHS 15
Slide 88: CN Inflation Outlook
CN Inflation Outlook | Inflation increased in April but is expected to remain subdued in the coming period. Inflation Rate Forecast | Statistical Model CPI & PPI 4 Base Effect | RHS 15 Estimate for CPI (%,Y/Y) 0.8 8 CPI (%, Y/Y) PPI | RHS 3 Core CPI (%,Y/Y) 0.6 10 6 CPI | LHS 0.4 2 5 4 0.2 1 0.0 0 2
Slide 89: CN Trade
CN Trade | The trade truce with the US and the successful redirection of exports helped minimize trade losses Trade US – China Imports & Exports 100 70 80 60 China Exports % Y/Y (3mma) China imports from US % Y/Y 50 60 40 40 China Imports % Y/Y (3mma) 30 20 20 0 10 0 -20 -10 -40 -20 China exports to
Slide 90: CN Real Estate
CN Real Estate | The ongoing decline in building sales and the real estate climate shows no signs of stabilisation. Prices decline again. Real Estate Climate & Building Sales Newly Residential Buildings Prices 60 12 103 50 10 40 8 Real Estate Climate Index | RHS 30 100 6 20 4 Building Sales Cumulati
Slide 91: CN Money Supply
CN Money Supply | Despite a moderation in growth, monetary aggregates (M1 and M2) remain supportive of economic expansion Money Supply Money Supply & Interbank Rate 40 25 30 7 35 20 6 30 Bloomberg China Credit 24 25 15 impulse (12 month net SHIBOR 3 -month % | RHS 5 M1 % Y/Y | LHS 20 change) | RHS 1
Slide 92: CN Fiscal
CN Fiscal | Expansionary Fiscal policy is expected to continue Government Balance General Government Debt & Debt Service Ratio 40 General government Revenues | LHS -12 90 7,0 General government Expenditures | LHS Debt Service Ratio | RHS 35 Fiscal Deficit | RHS 80 6,0 -10 30 70 5,0 -8 25 General Gov
Slide 93: Economic Research & Investment Strategy
Economic Research & Investment Strategy Lekkos, Ilias Lekkosi@piraeusbank.gr Group Chief Economist Papioti , Liana Papiotie@piraeusbank .gr Executive Secretary Global Economics & ESG Research (GLEC) Stefanou, Katerina Stefanoua@piraeusbank.gr Director, Global Economics & ESG Research Head Rotsika, D
Slide 94: Disclaimer
Disclaimer : This document is produced by the Economic Research & Investment Strategy Department of Piraeus Bank (hereinafter “the Bank”), which is supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB), in collaboration with the Bank of Greece and is sent or provided to third parties, without any obligation