Vistra Corp. · NYSE:VST
Vistra — Q3 2022 Earnings Presentation
40 slides from Vistra's earnings presentation, Nov 4, 2022
Slide 1: Third Quarter 2022 Results
Third Quarter 2022 Results November 4, 2022 RESULTS
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda I. Welcome and Safe Harbor Meagan Horn, Vice President of Investor Relations II. 2022 Update; Looking Forward to 2023 and Beyond Jim Burke, President & Chief Executive Officer III. Finance Update Kris Moldovan, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Vistra Investor Presentation /
Slide 4: 2022 Update; Looking Forward to 2023 and Beyond
2022 Update; Looking Forward to 2023 and Beyond Jim Burke President & Chief Executive Officer VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2022 4
Slide 5: 2022 Update
2022 Update Third Quarter Results Narrowing 2022 Guidance Ongoing Operations ($ millions) Ongoing Operations ($ millions) Initial Revised Adjusted EBITDA1 $1,038 Guidance Guidance Adjusted EBITDA1 $2,810 - $3,310 $2,960 - $3,160 Operational Highlights Adjusted FCFbG1 $2,070 - $2,570 $2,170 - $2,370
Slide 6: Looking Forward to 2023
Looking Forward to 2023 Ongoing Operations ($ millions) Adjusted EBITDA1 $3,400 - $4,000 Adjusted FCFbG1 $1,750 - $2,350 2023 Adjusted EBITDA1 guidance midpoint of $3,700 at high end of the range of midpoint opportunities we estimated in Q1 2022 1 Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA and Ongoing Operation
Slide 7: Our Strategic Priorities Create Compelling Investor Value
Our Strategic Priorities Create Compelling Investor Value Long-term, Sustainable Value Creation through Integrated Business Model: Operationally excellent generation fleet, innovative retail team and experienced commercial team, leading to compelling earnings potential with multi-year line of sight
Slide 8: Finance Update
Finance Update Kris Moldovan Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2022 8
Slide 9: Q3 2022 Financial Results
Q3 2022 Financial Results Vistra continues to execute and deliver results with operational excellence ONGOING OPERATIONS ADJUSTED EBITDA1 ($ millions) Retail 2900 Q3 2022 and YTD 2022 results driven primarily by: Favorable ERCOT margins and customer counts, along with 2400 $2,344 strong large bu
Slide 10: Capital Allocation Update
Capital Allocation Update1 • Upsized expected aggregate share repurchases through 2026 from $6.0 billion to $6.25 billion Share • Completed ~$2.05 billion of share repurchases as of November 1, 2022 Repurchase • Remaining ~$1.2 billion of upsized $3.25 billion authorization expected to be spent by y
Slide 11: Market Curves and Hedge Position Update
Market Curves and Hedge Position Update We use proprietary statistical analysis to strategically hedge our cost and revenue streams allowing us to confidently lock in significant out-year value opportunities As of October 31, 2022, Vistra was ~70% hedged for 2023 to 2025 (~90% hedged for 2023) acros
Slide 12: Initiating 2023 Guidance – Detail
Initiating 2023 Guidance – Detail 2023E Guidance ($ millions) Generation (including Texas, East, West, Sunset, Corp/Other)1 $2,495 - $2,935 Retail $905 - $1,065 Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA2 $3,400 - $4,000 Asset Closure Segment $(190) - $(90) Consolidated Adj. EBITDA $3,210 - $3,910 Ongoing Opera
Slide 13: Appendix
VICTDA aa Ew = Appendix
Slide 14: Corporate Debt Profile
Corporate Debt Profile A strong balance sheet is core to Vistra’s strategy, and Vistra is committed to a long-term net leverage target (excluding any non-recourse debt at Vistra Zero) of less than 3x ($ millions) Q3 2022 Funded Revolving Credit Facility and Commodity Linked RCF -- Term Loan B $2,522
Slide 15: Select Debt Balances
Select Debt Balances Funded Debt Tranches of Vistra Operations Company LLC As of September 30, 20221 ($ millions) Series Principal Outstanding Secured Debt Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2025 $2,522 4.875% Senior Secured Notes due May 2024 400 3.550% Senior Secured Notes due July 2024 1,5
Slide 16: Q3 2022 Retail Metrics
Q3 2022 Retail Metrics Highlights Retail Volume • Continued strong performance in Texas: All markets (electric volumes in TWh) Well positioned in volatile commodity environment as a result of 27.8 28.4 our core capabilities and diverse brand and channel strategies 3.4 2.6 Favorable margins and c
Slide 17: Q3 2022 Generation Metrics
Q3 2022 Generation Metrics TOTAL GENERATION2 CAPACITY FACTOR (CCGT) 2 TWhs Q3 2021 Q3 2022 YTD 20211 YTD 2022 % Q3 2021 Q3 2022 YTD 20211 YTD 2022 TEXAS 22.9 24.5 58.2 59.7 TEXAS 53% 70% 43% 49% EAST 14.8 15.2 40.8 40.9 EAST 61% 63% 57% 57% WEST 1.6 1.4 4.0 3.5 WEST 73% 65% 60% 52% SUNSET 8.2 6.4 21
Slide 18: Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures Projected Capital Expenditures1 ($ millions) 2022E 2023E Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance2,3 613 744 Nuclear Fuel 148 139 Non-Recurring4 63 12 Solar & Energy Storage Development 366 977 Other Growth5 77 151 Total Capital Expenditures 1,267 2,024 Non-Recurring4 (63) (12) Solar & Ener
Slide 19: Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities Effective: 9/30/2022
Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities Effective: 9/30/2022 2022 2023 TEXAS WEST EAST SUNSET TOTAL TEXAS WEST EAST SUNSET TOTAL Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 13 - - 8 21 47 - - 25 72 % Hedged 95% - - 93% 94% 92% - - 77% 87% Net Position 1 - - 1 1 4 - - 6 10 Sensitivi
Slide 20: Market Pricing Effective: 9/30/2022
Market Pricing Effective: 9/30/2022 Oct-Dec'22 2023 Oct-Dec'22 2023 Power (ATC, $/MWh) Spark Spreads ($/mwhr) ERCOT North Hub $56.53 $58.91 Approx. Contrib ution ERCOT West Hub $46.98 $51.02 ERCOT PJM AD Hub $76.65 $71.09 ERCOT North Hub-Houston Ship Channel 90% $12.00 $18.54 PJM Ni Hub $69.85 $64.5
Slide 21: Capacity Positions Effective: 9/30/2022
Capacity Positions Effective: 9/30/2022 Segment Market Tenor MW Position Average Price Segment Market Tenor MW Position Average Price PJM1 $/mw-day CAISO RTO 2021/2022 3,466 $136.91 WEST 2022 1,245 2022/2023 3,332 $47.29 2023 1,567 2023/2024 3,234 $35.47 PJM $/mw-day ComEd 2021/2022 1,415 $206.84 RT
Slide 22: Asset Fleet Details
Asset Fleet Details Net Capacity Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel (MW)1 Ennis Ennis, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 366 Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 Hays San Marcos, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,047 Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,076 Midlothian Midlothian, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,596 Odessa Odessa, TX E
Slide 23: Asset Fleet Details (cont’d)
Asset Fleet Details (cont’d) Net Capacity Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel (MW)1 Independence Oswego, NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1,212 Bellingham Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566 Blackstone Blackstone, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 544 Casco Bay Veazie, ME ISO-NE CCGT Gas 543 Lake Road Dayville, CT ISO-NE C
Slide 24: Vistra Zero & Sustainability Goals
Vistra Zero & Sustainability Goals VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2022 24
Slide 25: Strategic Green Energy Growth - Vistra Zero Portfolio
Strategic Green Energy Growth - Vistra Zero Portfolio Strategic growth of our clean energy portfolio, Vistra Zero, with a focus on diversified generation sources, markets and revenue sources. DeCordova Energy Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Storage Facility 260 MW/260 MWh 400 MW/1,600 MWh Expan
Slide 26: Vistra Zero Portfolio
Vistra Zero Portfolio Projects listed below represent only planned projects that have been announced. Capacity Asset Location ISO Status In-Service Year2 (MW) 1 NUCLEAR Comanche Peak Glen Rose, TX ERCOT 2,400 Online 1990 SOLAR Upton 2 Upton County, TX ERCOT 180 Online 2018 Brightside Live Oak County
Slide 27: Brightside and Emerald Grove Solar Facilities
Brightside and Emerald Grove Solar Facilities Brightside and Emerald Grove bring a combined 158MW of solar capacity to the ERCOT grid; announced online as of April and June 2022, respectively Brightside Emerald Grove Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2022 27
Slide 28: DeCordova Energy Storage Facility
DeCordova Energy Storage Facility DeCordova is a 260MW / 260MWh energy storage system co-located at Luminant's natural gas-fueled DeCordova Power Plant; announced online as of May 2022 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2022 28
Slide 29: Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility
Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Phase III of the Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility will bring the site's total energy storage capacity to 750MW / 3,000MWh Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2022 29
Slide 30: Sustainability: Environmental Stewardship
Sustainability: Environmental Stewardship Vistra’s green-focused targets emphasize its sustainability transition that balances reliability and affordability of power EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS PORTFOLIO TRANSFORMATION ~3,400 MW1 60% by Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG Emissions (in MMtCO2e) of zero-carbon generati
Slide 31: Sustainability: Social Responsibility & Governance
Sustainability: Social Responsibility & Governance Vistra’s Purpose: Lighting up people’s lives, powering a better way forward PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES GOVERNANCE Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion • Oversight of Vistra’s ESG initiatives is governed by the full Vistra board, with oversight of subject ma
Slide 32: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q3 2022 32
Slide 33: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2022 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2022 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2022 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp. and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income
Slide 34: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2022 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2022 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2022 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Eliminations / Asset Vistra Retail Texas East West Sunset Operations Corp. and Other Closure Consolidated Consolidated Net Income
Slide 35: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2021 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2021 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2021 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp. and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated Net Income
Slide 36: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2021 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Q3 2021 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS NINE MONTHS ENDED SEPTEMBER 30, 2021 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Asset Vistra Retail Texas East West Sunset Corp. and Operations Closure Consolidated Other Consolidated $ Net Incom
Slide 37: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Narrowed 2022 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Narrowed 2022 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2022 GUIDANCE1 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) (710) (570) (130) (30) (840) (600) Income tax expense (160) (10
Slide 38: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Narrowed 2022 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Narrowed 2022 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2022 GUIDANCE1 FOOTNOTES (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) 1 Regulation G Table for 2022 Guidance prepared as of November 4, 2022 (a) Includes unrealized (gain) / loss on interest rate swaps of ($199) million (
Slide 39: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2023 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2023 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2023 GUIDANCE1 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) 1,050 1,510 (180) (80) 870 1,430 Income tax expense 300 440 0 0 300 440
Slide 40: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2023 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2023 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2023 GUIDANCE1 FOOTNOTES (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) 1 Regulation G Table for 2023 Guidance prepared as of November 4, 2022. (a) Includes unrealized (gain) / loss on interest rate swaps of $36 million (b) Includes