Equinor ASA · OSL:EQNR
Equinor ASA — Investor Day (February 2021)
24 slides from Equinor ASA's investor day presentation, Feb 19, 2021
Slide 1: IR Gas Market Update
s- equinor IR Gas Market Update 19 February 2021
Slide 2: Forward-looking statements
Forward-looking statements ‘This presentation contains certain forwarcHooking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. n some cases, we use words such as “ambition, continue’, ‘could’ ‘estimate’, ‘intend’, “expect, ‘believe’, kel’, ‘may’, ‘outlook’ "plan’.“strategy’, “will, “guidance’, ‘targ
Slide 3: Marketing, Midstream and Processing
Marketing, Midstream and Processing Helge Haugane Senior Vice President, Gas and Power
Slide 4: MMP organisation and 2020 full year result
MMP organisation and 2020 full year result Irene Rummelhoff | me ro rey Crude, Products and ‘Onshore Plants Gas and Power Liquids Grete B.Haaland Helge Haugane Molly Morris Global Macro and Markets Low Carbon Solutions New Value Chains Disc Eirik Woerness Grete Tveit Tor Martin Anfinnsen ria Galt Se
Slide 5: We said at our last gas seminar volatility was expected to be high...
equinor ** We said at our last gas seminar volatility was expected to be high... Capture value in volatile markets NBP $/MMBtu Pr ee ee FPP FF SF SF SF SF + Volatility is expected to stay high + _Implying significant variations between markets + Demand for gas as « flexible backup willincrease. + Vo
Slide 6: Key drivers for future volatility in the gas market
aw - Key drivers for future volatility in the gas market North West Europe gas demand NWE gas demand mem/d 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 Sep-18 Sep-19 Storage capacity in growth markets % gas storage capacity vrs total demand 40% 30% 20% Sep-20 South Korea Netherlands equinor Renewable penetration in Euro
Slide 7: Volatility - a good thing for our gas trading!
Volatility - a good thing for our gas trading! High volatility of NBP/TTF spread £ | during Jan21 We keep doing EUR per MWh 40 rade date 30 2,0 10 0,0 eegegeggeegxsgegeegega” &§ & &8§ &§ &§& & &§ & & & &&B 5s 2 5} & Ss § So eB Ee F BE Ss 5B f § B 4 5 5S 2 2 € € 3 2 3 € § 8 8 7 | IR Gas Market Semina
Slide 8: There is no contradiction in believing in massive renewable growth and a good future for gas
equinor *: There is no contradiction in believing in massive renewable growth and a good future for gas... It is more likely a prerequisite to believe in both...
Slide 9: Macro developments and long-term gas markets
Macro developments and long-term gas markets Eirik Woerness Senior Vice President, Global Macro and Markets
Slide 10: Global economy, global gas demand, European gas demand
• • Global economy Global gas demand European gas demand • Global oil demand • • • • • 2019 2020 2021F 2022F
Slide 11: Global climate signals have become more visible throughout 2020
equinor *: Global climate signals have become more visible throughout 2020 e@ China: 2060 net-zero target €‘e; Japan and South Korea: 2050 net-zero targets «) Canada: 2050 net-zero target © & Carbon Capture, EU and UK: more ambitious emission reduction opt Storage and Utilization targets for 2030 (-
Slide 12: Multiple long-term outcomes - in term of growth, energy demand and mix
equinor *° Multiple long-term outcomes - in term of growth, energy demand and mix There is an energy transition in all scenarios, but only in Rebalance is it fast enough - decarbonized electrification is key to the development Global GDP World primary energy demand Electricity generation Indexed to
Slide 13: Gas is a flexible fuel used in different sectors, with tough competition
equinor *: Gas is a flexible fuel used in different sectors, with tough competition 40% of gas demand from the power and heat sector. Replacing coal with gas in power and heat would increase gas demand by ~75% A) Gas demand in 2018 Power & Heat fuel mix Gas demand was 3,900 bem with L600 bcm going t
Slide 14: In EU28, gas is important both in buildings and in power & heat
equinor *: In EU28, gas is important both in buildings and in power & heat 30% of gas demand from the power and heat sector. Replacing coal with gas in power and heat would increase gas demand by ~10% A) EU gas demand in 2018 EU power & heat fuel mix Gas demand was 475 bem, with 142 bem going to pow
Slide 15: Natural gas demand - divergence beyond the 2020s
equinor ** Natural gas demand - divergence beyond the 2020s China and India key regions in Rebalance, balancing demand decline in industrialized countries — gas supports coal phase-out in electricity A) Change in gas demand by scenario, 2018-2050 A) Change in EU gas demand by scenario, 2018-2050 Bem
Slide 16: Is there a case for new gas resources?
Is there a case for new gas resources? Gas resources highly dependent on location and market accessibility — Gas demand and supply from existing fields Bem 0) 4000 *— Demand range 3000 Cumulative — supply gap 2000 >62Tcm 1000 Legacy supply 2020 2025 2030. 2035 2040 2045 2050 aw - equinor prices will
Slide 17: Short- and medium-term gas markets
Short- and medium-term gas markets Anna Balina Principal analyst, MMP
Slide 18: European gas demand dropped 4% in 2020
A equinor *: European gas demand dropped 4% in 2020 European gas demand expected to gradually recover during 2021 Source: EP20; TSO's; EQNR MA analysis Gas Demand Coal to Gas Switching range 600 €/MWh 100 500 39 400 5 300 pe} 200 100 ) a g 9,0 iS m™ Other FW market --> 80 g 7° 26.0 5.0 40 3.0 2.0 LO
Slide 19: Europe played a crucial role in balancing the global gas market during 2020
equinor *° Europe played a crucial role in balancing the global gas market during 2020 Reduction of both pipeline and LNG import, however, they played differently throughout year Source: IHS, Platts, EQNR MA European impo 0 vs 2019 European Gas Storage European Supply Bem, (Bcm) (Bcm) (Bem) _ Foreca
Slide 20: Asia in the driver's seat when it comes to LNG import, US leads LNG export growth
equinor Asia in the driver's seat when it comes to LNG import, US leads LNG export growth Covid-related market uncertainty puts LNG supply investment on hold Source; IHS, EGNR MA LNG Demand LNG Supply LNG Liquefaction incremental 700 Forecast ber 6 8 8 o 8 8 8 & i o n= & 201) 8 is i 2 es 2 2 a 4a aa
Slide 21: Oil Hydro Coal
Oil 20 % Hydro Coal 8% Natural 57 % gas 8% Nuclear … 2% • • • • • •
Slide 22: As prices continue to improve, US gas production return to growth in late 2021
equinor As prices continue to improve, US gas production return to growth in late 2021 Incremental growth in supply will push LNG exports higher Source: WoodMac IHS, PIRA, EQNR MA 1200 1200 140 1000 1000 800 | 800 E | & § 600 5 600 400 400 o “\ D <) oO » ad bal ed YY + Vv 200 200 "s PP Sh PS Sh Sh o
Slide 23: Global Gas Prices in 2020: historical lows, steep recovery and high volatility
equinor ** Global Gas Prices in 2020: historical lows, steep recovery and high volatility... Gas prices expected to recover in 2021, but strong supply will continue to keep pressure on prices 18 16 RRA Gas demand t 14 Forward price§ as off 17" Feb. 2 Ze = LNG supply 5 a . 2 ; a, Asian LNG demand t a
Slide 24: Investor Relations in Equinor
equinor Investor Relations in Equinor E-mail: irpost@equinor.com Investor Relations Europe Peter Hutton Senior Vice President phutt@equinor.com +44 788 191 8792 Lars Valdresbraten IR Officer lava@equinor.com +47 40 28 1789 Erik Gonder IR Officer ergon@equinor.com +47 99 56 26 11 Fan Gao IR Officer f