Aygaz Anonim Sirketi · BIST:AYGAZ
Aygaz Anonim Sirketi — Aygaz — Investor Presentation (January 2017)
41 slides from Aygaz Anonim Sirketi's investor presentation, January 2017
Slide 1: Investor Presentation January 2017
INVESTOR PRESENTATION January 2017
Slide 2: Content
CONTENT A- Overview G- Other participations B- World LPG market H- Financial highlights C- Turkish LPG market & Aygaz I- Disclamier D- The LPG value chain J- Contacts E- Participation portfolio K- Appendix F- Natural gas L- Glossary
Slide 3: A Aygaz overview
3 A Aygaz overview 2015 $2.4 billion REVENUE 2.1 m tons SALES LEADING 29% LPG MARKET SHARE LPG DISTRIBUTOR of TURKEY NATURAL GAS REFINERY DIVERSIFIED PARTICIPATION PORTFOLIO IN ENERGY POWER GENERATION
Slide 4: Overview
4 > Overview SUMMARY FINANCIALS (Cons. in m TL) 9M 2016 9M 2015 2015 2014 2015-2014 Change Revenue 4,905 4,814 6,420 7,061 -9% EBITDA 297 221 337 188 79% Net Profit 277 273 418 218 92% EBITDA Margin 6% 5% 5% 3% +2 Net Profit Margin 6% 6% 7% 3% +4 Volume (000 tons) 1,595 1,566 2,057 1,791 15% SHAREHO
Slide 5: Core business - LPG distribution
5 > Core business - LPG distribution Generic brand for LPG 13th largest industrial company of Turkey, as of 2015 with 55 years of history Most preferred LPG brand in Turkey since its foundation Market leader with 3 brands MARKET SHARES (%) AYGAZ VOLUMES (000 tons) 72 60 37 36 43 46 865 620 668 589 7
Slide 6: B World LPG market
6 B World LPG market WORLD LPG CONSUMPTION (m tons) 2015 285 2014 275 Fastest growing energy source after 2013 268 renewable energy 2012 257 2011 256 300 billion USD business size worldwide 2010 249 2009 240 Sources of LPG production; 2008 240 2007 236 62% 38% 2006 227 NATURAL GAS CRUDE OIL 2005 220
Slide 7: World LPG consumption
7 > World LPG consumption World LPG Consumption World LPG Consumption By Sector 2015 (%) By Region 2015 (%) 44 37 Domestic Asia Pasific 1 26 5 21 Agriculture Chemical Africa North America 10 17 8 12 S.&C. America Europe&Eurasia Refinery Industry 9 10 Autogas Middle East WLPGA Statistical Review of G
Slide 8: LPG price versus brent
8 > LPG price versus brent 140 1.200 113 1.100 120 108 1.000 900 100 977 894 800 $/Barrel $/Ton 80 700 600 60 55 500 32 400 40 300 321 370 20 200 JAN 13 APR 13 JUL 13 OCT 13 JAN 14 APR 14 JUL 14 OCT 14 JAN 15 APR 15 JUL 15 OCT 15 JAN 16 APR 16 JUL 16 OCT 16 DEC 16 SP (Algeria) Petroleum (Brent) • Th
Slide 9: C Turkish LPG market
9 C Turkish LPG market EUROPE (m ton) 4.1 m tons #2 in Europe #16 in the World RUSSIA 4.4 ~80 distribution companies TURKEY 4.1 Leading 3 players in the cylinder market and first 8 players in the autogas market hold over 80% of the total market ITALY 3.2 Serving; • 7.5 m houses • 4.3 m cars POLAND 2
Slide 10: Turkish LPG market ranking
10 > Turkish LPG market ranking 1- ITALY 1.3 m tons 2- FRANCE 1.2 m tons 3- RUSSIA 1.0 m tons 4- SPAIN 1.1 m tons 5- TURKEY 0.8 m tons TURKEY IS THE 5th BIGGEST DOMESTIC LPG MARKET IN EUROPE 1- SOUTH KOREA 3.7 m tons 2- TURKEY 3.1 m tons 3- RUSSIA 3.0 m tons 4- THAILAND 1.7 m tons 5- POLAND 1.7 m to
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Slide 12: Cylinder market starting to stabilize
12 > Cylinder market starting to stabilize CYLINDER MARKET CYLINDER YoY CHANGES Turkish 4% market 979 2% 890 842 0 801 816 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (000 tons) 686 -2% -4% -6% Aygaz 393 382 359 342 343 -8% 288 -10% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10M 2016 TURKISH MARKET AYGAZ Growth signals for the first ti
Slide 13: Aygaz; leading cylinder market since its foundation
13 > Aygaz; leading cylinder market since its foundation CYLINDER MARKET SHARES Generic brand AYGAZ 42% Market maker Largest dealer network with highest SHV 29% sales efficiency DEMİRÖREN 16% 60% market share in residential use OTHER 13% Fully integrated production cycle; Cylinder and gas appliances
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Slide 15: Autogas market keeping its steady growth
15 > Autogas market keeping its steady growth AUTOGAS MARKET AUTOGAS YoY CHANGES 3,069 14% 2,838 2,663 Turkish 2,695 2,727 12% market 2,642 10% (000 tons) 8% 777 6% 688 677 Aygaz 604 621 662 4% 2% 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10M 2016 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 TURKISH MARKET AYGAZ Steady growth since 2
Slide 16: Economy of autogas
16 > Economy of autogas PRICE ADVANTAGE OF AUTOGAS 40% 30% 20% 10% 0 -10% -20% -30% price advantage NOV-12 JAN-13 MAR-13 MAY-13 JUL-13 SEP-13 NOV-13 JAN-14 MAR-14 MAY-14 JUL-14 SEP-14 NOV-14 JAN-15 MAR-15 MAY-15 JUL-15 SEP-15 NOV-15 JAN-16 MAR-16 MAY-16 JUL-16 SEP-16 NOV-16 DEC-16 to gasoline To gas
Slide 17: Autogas; most widely-used passenger car fuel of Turkey
17 > Autogas; most widely-used passenger car fuel of Turkey RATIO OF CARS REGISTERED TO TURKISH CAR PARK (m cars) TRAFFIC ACC. TO FUEL TYPE 4.3 4.4 3.9 4.1 3.8 3.6 3.3 34% 3.0 3.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 75% 5% 39% 2.5 2.9 15% 1.8 2.1 27% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 E 2004 NOV 2016 GASOLINE DIESEL AUT
Slide 18: Aygaz; leader of World's second biggest Autogas Market
18 > Aygaz; leader of World’s second biggest Autogas Market AUTOGAS MARKET SHARES MARKET SHARE & STATION NUMBER SHARE (%) 25 AYGAZ 25% OMV PO 13% 17 SHELL-TURCAS 12% 12 13 12 11 SHV 8% 8 8 8 6 6 DEMİRÖREN 8% 4 3 4 MARKET SHARE BP 6% STATION NUMBER SHARE AYGAZ OMV PO SHELL-TURCAS DEMİRÖREN SHV BP TOT
Slide 19: Autogas car park growth
19 > Autogas car park growth 1,000+ conversion points 160,000 OEM; original equipment $500 average initial cost manufacturer conversions Payback in 15,000 km • Some major car manufacturers per year are providing guaranteed conversion currently AUTOGAS CONVERSIONS (m cars) 9.9 10.6 11.2 8.6 9.3 7.5 8
Slide 20: D The LPG value chain
20 D The LPG value 292 1,750 auto gas stations tankers chain 1,000,000+ vehicles using Aygaz Euro LPG+ Fixed storage Moving&floating capacity of storage capacity 178,400 m3 via AUTOGAS of 45,000 m3 23 facilities 3,500+ BULK bulk gas clients 4 LPG ships CYLINDER belonging to Supplying the fleet of 2
Slide 21: Competitive Supply Chain
21 > Competitive Supply Chain BIG PLAYER ADVANCED MODEL #1 purchaser in Mediterranean Direct imports to 6 different locations #1 importer in Turkey Most diversified supply portfolio in Turkey Diversified supplier & origins #1 FOB player in Black Sea Diversified supply pattern (ex-refinery, FOB, CIF)
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Slide 23: E Participation Portfolio
23 E Participation Portfolio Aygaz Natural Gas Anadoluhisarı 100% 100% EYAŞ* Akpa 20% 100% Entek Opet-Aygaz 50% Real Estate 50% *EYAŞ owns 51% of the shares of TÜPRAŞ
Slide 24: F Natural gas
24 F Natural gas LNG SALES 2015 Transportation 19% market share, sales: and regasification 300 industrial ~100 mcm customers SALES VOLUME (mcm) PIPELINE NATURAL GAS SALES 1,103 Started in 2015 sales: 837 671 2010 ~800 mcm 649 366 219 PROJECTS 55 LNG & Pipeline gas import 141 64 69 128 125 94 92 2011
Slide 25: Natural gas
25 > Natural gas STRATEGY Wholesale Power generation Companies and industry UPSTREAM TRANSMISSION IMPORT WHOLESALE AND STORAGE Local LNG Distribution Companies Companies CURRENT POSITION TARGET POSITION
Slide 26: Natural gas market dynamics
26 > Natural gas market dynamics 63 65 58 60 • Liberalization process still continues; only 20% of the 55 51 52 53 market is composed of private sector. 49 49 46 48 49 44 45 46 • Natural gas consumption of Turkey is expected to 37 reach 65 bcm in 2026. • Turkey needs additional gas entry for the fol
Slide 27: G Other participations
27 G Other participations POWER GENERATION SALES AND MARKETING İzmit NGCC: 160 MW Direct sale of cylinder gas and carboy water throughout Turkey 3 hydro assets: 62 MW Fuel trade at its fuel stations Kepezkaya HEPP (Karaman) 28 MW Damlapınar HEPP (Karaman) 16 MW Kumköy HEPP (Samsun) 18 MW OPET AYGAZ
Slide 28: Aygaz key takeaways
28 > Aygaz key takeaways Consistent Brand Long-term Diversifier & Market Power Strategy Portfolio Leader Builder Investor Strong Sales & Financial Logistics Network Strength STRATEGIC PRIORITIES Sustain its market leadership in LPG through; • Product differentiation and innovation for autogas • Furt
Slide 29: Shareholder value
29 > Shareholder value CONTINUOUS OUTPERFORMER OF BIST 30 STRENGTHS Sustainable operating profitability from core business; LPG BIST Code AYGAZ Resistant to economic fluctuations and crises Bloomberg Code AYGAZ.TI High dividend payments Reuters Code AYGAZ.IS Corporate governance practices at interna
Slide 30: H Financial highlights
30 H Financial highlights SALES REVENUE (m TRY) 7,061 6,420 6,005 5,456 5,586 4,905 4,814 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9M 2015 9M 2016 Sales revenue figure fluctuations are mainly due to; • FX rate changes • Commodity price changes
Slide 31: Financial highlights
31 > Financial highlights GROSS PROFIT AND GPM EBITDA AND EBITDA MARGIN 11% 12% 9% 10% 10% 8% 9% 6% 7% 5% 5% 5% 4% 456 3% 677 489 586 337 221 297 478 521 571 527 285 252 188 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9M 9M 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9M 9M 2015 2016 2015 2016 GROSS PROFIT GROSS PROFIT MARGIN EBITDA EBIT
Slide 32: Financial highlights
32 > Financial highlights NET CASH WORKING CAPITAL 276 186 213 110 145 253 184 232 248 267 182 297 272 120 299 304 367 390 483 439 2011 2012 -65 -251 -269 -319 -372 -312 -93 -376 2013 -204 -263 9M 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9M 2014 2016 2016 2015 TRADE PAYABLES TRADE RECEIVABLES INVENTORY WORKING CAPI
Slide 33: Financial highlights
33 > Financial highlights DEBT PROFILE AS OF 30/09/2016 m TL 2015 9M 2016 ST Borrowings 66 3 TL TL Loan; Current portion of LT Borrowings 182 207 Bond; 32% LT Borrowings 303 393 40% Total Debt 551 604 *FX Cash and cash equivalents (-) 289 511 Loan; = Net Debt 263 93 28% ST: Short-term LT: Long-term
Slide 34: I Disclaimer
34 I Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the company management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables
Slide 35: J Contacts
35 J Contacts investor@aygaz.com.tr ferda.erginoglu@aygaz.com.tr Ferda Erginoğlu, CFO +90 212 354 1764 sebnem.yucel@aygaz.com.tr Şebnem Yücel, Finance Manager +90 212 354 1510 selin.sanver@aygaz.com.tr Selin Sanver, Investor Relations Manager +90 212 354 1659 www.aygaz.com.tr
Slide 36: K Appendix
36 K Appendix
Slide 37: Income statement summary
37 1 Income statement summary (m TRY) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9M 2016 Sales Revenue 5,456 5,586 6,005 7,061 6,420 4,905 COGS (4,978) (5,065) (5,434) (6,534) (5,743) (4,319) Gross Profit 478 521 571 527 677 586 Operating Profit 371 206 170 104 250 233 Profit Before Tax 419 345 237 237 458 311 Net Pr
Slide 38: Balance sheet summary
38 2 Balance sheet summary (m TRY) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 9M 2016 Cash & Cash Eq. 254 125 173 161 289 511 Trade Receivables 299 304 367 390 483 439 Inventories 184 213 276 110 186 145 Participations 1,020 1,230 1,377 1,677 1,867 1,897 Prop. Plant & Eq. 573 595 589 585 651 650 Financial Debt (2) (6
Slide 39: 2016 / 3Q income statement summary
39 3 2016 / 3Q income statement summary Million TL 3Q16 2Q16 Change 3Q16 3Q15 Change Revenues 1,845 1,535 20% 1,845 1,851 -0.3% Gross Profit 217 194 12% 217 181 20% Operating Profit 85 82 3% 85 60 40% Profit Before Tax 132 105 26% 132 122 8% Net Profit 119 93 27% 119 113 5% EBITDA 106 104 2% 106 82
Slide 40: 2016/ 3Q Aygaz LPG sales
40 4 2016/ 3Q Aygaz LPG sales 626 581 7 7 492 469 500 8 8 283 241 9 210 208 211 BULK 239 243 OTHER 190 171 195 AUTO 94 83 78 89 93 CYLINDER 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 2015 2016 3Q sales volumes were realized as • 243 thousand tons in Autogas (+1.8% YoY) • 93 thousand tons in Cylinder Gas (-0.5% YoY)
Slide 41: L Glossary
41 L Glossary LPG Liquid Petroleum Gas EMRA Energy Market Regulatory Authority WLPGA World LPG Association SP Sonatrach Price PETDER Petroleum Industry Association FOB Free On Board CIF Cost, Insurance & Freight Med Mediterranean VLGC Very Large Gas Carrier EYAŞ Enerji Yatırımları A.Ş. LNG Liquid Na