Slide 1: Making an Impact
Making anImpact Evercore ISI Utility Conference January 12, 2017 Ameren Missouri reliability project in Downtown St. Louis
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented core earnings, which is a non-GAAP measure and may not be comparable to those of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is included either on the slide where the non-GAAP measur
Slide 3: Company Description
Company Description Fully rate-regulated electric and gas utility • 2.4 million electric and 0.9 million gas customers • 10,200 MW of regulated electric generation capability • 4,600 circuit miles of FERC-regulated electric transmission Ameren Corporation Ameren Missouri Ameren Illinois Electric Tra
Slide 4: Our Value Proposition to Investors
Our Value Proposition to Investors Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect ~6.5% compound annual rate base growth from 2015 through 2020 1 – Sustainable infrastructure investment pipeline • Expect 5% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2016 through 20201 – Based on Feb. 2016 adjusted 2016 EPS gui
Slide 5: Solid Operating Performance
Solid Operating Performance # Delivery system reliability Generating plant Electric rates are low Safety has improved has improved performance remains strong Average Residential Electricity Prices1 Safety Performance 30 600 150 Lost Workday Recordable Cases 25 ¢/KWh BETTER 20 400 100 BETTER Cases 15
Slide 6: Our Strategic Plan
Our Strategic Plan • Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks • Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy policies • Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers and s
Slide 7: Our Regulatory Frameworks
Our Regulatory Frameworks1 FERC-regulated electric transmission service • Formula ratemaking; nearly eliminates regulatory lag – Current allowed ROE is 10.82%, which includes the MISO participation adder of 50 basis points – Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual re
Slide 8: Investing Strategically, Consistent with Regulatory Frameworks
Investing Strategically, Consistent with Regulatory Frameworks1 $11.1 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure 2015 to 2020E Regulated 5-Yr Rate Investment 2016-2020 Infrastructure Rate Base2 Base CAGR % of $16.7 Total ~6.5% Ameren Ameren $3.5 Illinois Illinois $12.1 Electric Transmission 53% 20% $2.0 B
Slide 9: Investing Strategically, with Focus on Transmission and Distribution
Investing Strategically, with Focus on Transmission and Distribution • We will continue to be strategic and disciplined in our 2015 to 2020E Regulated investment approach Infrastructure Rate Base1 • Investing to modernize the grid to make it smarter and 100% 100% to meet our customers’ future energy
Slide 10: 2016-2020 Capital Expenditure Funding Plan
2016-2020 Capital Expenditure Funding Plan1 • Return of capital through depreciation in rates • Retained earnings • ~$2.5-$2.6 billion of income tax deferrals and assets – Income tax deferrals driven primarily by capital expenditures • ~$930 million due to extension of bonus tax depreciation – Inclu
Slide 11: Creating and Capitalizing on Opportunities beyond 2020
Creating and Capitalizing on Opportunities beyond 2020 Illinois Electric and Natural Gas Delivery • System modernization projects including replacement of aging substations and electric distribution and gas distribution infrastructure, including expected new federal safety regulations for gas system
Slide 12: Illinois Energy Legislation
Illinois Energy Legislation • Future Energy Jobs Bill (Senate Bill 2814) enacted in Dec. 2016; effective June 1, 2017 • Enhances and extends Ameren Illinois’ electric distribution framework – Extends constructive formula ratemaking through 2022 • Enables continuation of Ameren Illinois’ strong rate
Slide 13: Efforts to Enhance Missouri Regulatory Framework
Efforts to Enhance Missouri Regulatory Framework • MoPSC - opened case to consider policies to improve way it regulates electric utilities – Ameren Missouri and other electric investor-owned utilities identified several approaches to enhance regulatory framework to support investment – In Sept. 23 f
Slide 14: Proposed Missouri Energy Legislation
Proposed Missouri Energy Legislation • The Missouri Economic Development and Infrastructure Investment Act (SB 190) – Deferral between rate cases of depreciation on capital projects placed in- service and of return on incremental rate base • Deferrals added to rate base and recovered over 20 years,
Slide 15: Proposed Missouri Energy Legislation, cont’d
Proposed Missouri Energy Legislation, cont’d • The 21st Century Grid Modernization and Security Act (SB 214) – Electric utilities may participate in performance-based ratemaking framework that would provide timely recovery of actual, prudently incurred costs – Allowed ROE tied to yield of 30-year U.
Slide 16: Select Regulatory Proceedings and Potential Tax Reform
Select Regulatory Proceedings and Potential Tax Reform Illinois electric delivery service • In Dec., the ICC approved a $14 million net annual decrease in electric delivery formula rates effective Jan. 2017, in line with Ameren Illinois’ request – Each year’s electric distribution service earnings a
Slide 17: Our Value Proposition to Investors
Our Value Proposition to Investors Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect ~6.5% compound annual rate base growth from 2015 through 2020 1 – Sustainable infrastructure investment pipeline • Expect 5% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2016 through 20201 – Based on Feb. 2016 adjusted 2016 EPS gui
Slide 18: Financial Update
Financial Update
Slide 19: Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sept. 30
Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sept. 30 Key Core Earnings Variance Drivers Core Diluted EPS1 Increased electric transmission and distribution infrastructure investments YTD 2015 vs. YTD 2016 by ATXI and Ameren Illinois, including changes in allowed ROEs: +$0.17 Higher Illinois natural g
Slide 20: GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliation
GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliation (In millions, except per share amounts) Nine Months Ended Sept. 30, 2015 2016 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $ 601 $ 2.47 $ 621 $ 2.56 Results from discontinued operations Operating income before income tax (3) (0.01) — — Income tax benefit (49) (0.20) — — Income fr
Slide 21: 2016 EPS Guidance: Select Balance of Year Considerations
2016 EPS Guidance1: Select Balance of Year Considerations Q4 2016E compared to Q4 2015: 2016E Diluted EPS Return to normal temperatures: ~+$0.08 $2.75 Increased electric transmission and distribution service infrastructure investments by ATXI and Ameren Illinois partially offset by lower Illinoi
Slide 22: Select 2017 Earnings Considerations
Select 2017 Earnings Considerations1 Higher average estimated rate base: ~$2.52 billion compared to estimated ~$2.12 billion in 2016 FERC-Regulated reflecting infrastructure investments made under formula ratemaking Electric Transmission • Expect lower projected weighted average allowed ROE vs. 20
Slide 23: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 24: Significant FERC-Regulated Transmission Investment
Significant FERC-Regulated Transmission Investment Planned $3.0 billion investment – 2016-20201 • $1.0 billion of regional multi-value projects at ATXI Regional • $2.0 billion of local reliability and connecting portions of regional multi- Multi-Value Projects value projects at Ameren Illinois Total
Slide 25: Pending Missouri Electric Rate Case
Pending Missouri Electric Rate Case • $206 million annual electric revenue increase request filed July 1, 2016 with MoPSC, which would result in an average 7.8% increase in base PROCEDURAL SCHEDULE rates KEY DATES: – ROE: 9.9% vs. 9.53% in April 2015 order – Equity ratio: 51.8% (Dec. 31, 2016 estima
Slide 26: Pending Missouri Electric Rate Case, cont’d
Pending Missouri Electric Rate Case, cont’d • Key drivers of requested $206 million annual revenue increase – New electric infrastructure investments: +$74 million • Depreciation: $39 million; return on rate base: $25 million; and property taxes1: $10 million – Reduced customer sales, less related n
Slide 27: Pending Missouri Electric Rate Case, cont’d
Pending Missouri Electric Rate Case, cont’d1 • MoPSC Staff recommended $52 million annual rate increase on Dec. 9 – ROE: 8.75% (7.9% to 8.85% range) vs. 9.9% request • MIEC and MECG recommended 9.2% (9.0% to 9.4% range) – Equity ratio: use of Ameren consolidated 50.5% vs. Ameren Missouri’s 51.8% req
Slide 28: FERC MISO Complaint Cases Regarding MISO base ROE
FERC MISO Complaint Cases Regarding MISO base ROE • Cases sought to reduce Ameren Illinois’ and ATXI’s transmission service allowed base ROE – In first case, FERC final order issued Sept. 28, 2016 confirmed ALJ initial recommendation of a 10.32% base ROE • Maximum ROE including incentives not to exc
Slide 29: Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters
Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters Missouri General Assembly / Missouri Public Service Commission • Senate Bills 190, 214 and 215: http://www.senate.mo.gov/17info/BTS_Web/BillList.aspx?SessionType=R • Report of Senate Interim Committee on Utility Regulation and Infrastructure Investment: http
Slide 30: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar JANUARY 2017 FEBRUARY 2017 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 Q4 Quiet Period cont’d 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Evercore Q4 Quiet ISI Utility Period Conf. begins 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Slide 31: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations ALJ – Administrative Law Judge. ICC – Illinois Commerce Commission. AMI – Automated Meter Infrastructure. M – Million. ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois. MECG – Midwest Energy Consumers Group. B – Billion. MIEC – Missouri Industrial Energy Consumers.