Carnarvon Energy Limited · ASX:CVN
Carnarvon Energy — Carnarvon Petroleum — Shareholder Meeting (November 2016)
45 slides from Carnarvon Energy's shareholder meeting presentation, Nov 25, 2016
Slide 1: AGM presentation by CEO
For personal use only AGM presentation by CEO 25 November 2016
Slide 2: Disclaimer
Disclaimer For personal use only The Resource estimates outlined in this report have been prepared by the Company’s Chief Operating Officer, Mr Philip Huizenga, who is a full-time employee of the Company. Mr Huizenga has over 25 years’ experience in petroleum exploration and engineering. Mr Huizenga
Slide 3: Carnarvon business in 2016
For personal use only Carnarvon business in 2016 NWS capability
Slide 4: Exploration is in our DNA
Exploration is in our DNA For personal use only What we do…….NWS oil & gas exploration • Identify exploration opportunities based on detailed regional geological work; • Acquire new data and or apply new technology to add value; • Work with like minded partners with operating skills and financial ca
Slide 5: Key capabilities
Key capabilities For personal use only People Data Using the collective skills and Using proprietary information to experience to find oil and gas. improve project selection. 5
Slide 6: Value metrics
Value metrics For personal use only Market value of CVN $115 million - Cash (30 Sept. 2016) $65 million = Enterprise value (“EV”) $50 million EV/2C value (FAR look through) $3.40/bbl = 2C of 15 mmboe CVN boe…….mid case Already discovered 2C 22 mmboe + Drilling now 21 mmboe + Prospects to tie-back 18
Slide 7: CVN share price vs Brent
CVN share price vs Brent For personal use only 65 0.145 60 0.135 55 0.125 0.115 50 Canrarvon Petroleum Share Price ($) 0.105 Brent Oil Price ($/bbl) 45 0.095 40 0.085 35 0.075 0.065 30 0.055 Brent Oil Price 25 0.045 Carnarvon Petroleum Share Price 20 0.035 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 F
Slide 8: Oil price further challenged in 2016
Oil price further challenged in 2016 For personal use only 65 0.145 60 0.135 55 0.125 0.115 50 Canrarvon Petroleum Share Price ($) 0.105 Brent Oil Price ($/bbl) 45 0.095 40 0.085 35 0.075 0.065 30 0.055 Brent Oil Price 25 0.045 Carnarvon Petroleum Share Price 20 0.035 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec
Slide 9: CVN share price break outs
CVN share price break outs For personal use only 65 0.145 60 0.135 55 0.125 0.115 50 Canrarvon Petroleum Share Price ($) 0.105 Brent Oil Price ($/bbl) 45 0.095 40 0.085 35 0.075 0.065 30 0.055 Brent Oil Price 25 0.045 Carnarvon Petroleum Share Price 20 0.035 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
Slide 10: Positive well results tie to break outs
Positive well results tie to break outs For personal use only 65 Roc-1 well OE-1 Roc-2 well PS-2 0.145 well well 60 0.135 55 0.125 0.115 50 Canrarvon Petroleum Share Price ($) 0.105 Brent Oil Price ($/bbl) 45 0.095 40 0.085 35 0.075 0.065 30 0.055 Brent Oil Price 25 0.045 Carnarvon Petroleum Share P
Slide 11: Oil price – supply abundance case
Oil price – supply abundance case For personal use only What you need to believe1: • Global GDP growth limited • OPEC produce at max capacity • Technology sustains US production Supply abundance 1 Concepts from McKinsey & Company, Energy Insights 11
Slide 12: Oil price – slow recovery case
Oil price – slow recovery case For personal use only What you need to believe1: • Global GDP growth on forecast • Rate of new production slows • Field decline rates accelerate 1 Concepts from McKinsey & Company, Energy Insights 12
Slide 13: Oil price – high recovery case
Oil price – high recovery case For personal use only What you need to believe1: • Global GDP rates above forecast • OPEC cuts production • Production falls on under investment 1 Concepts from McKinsey & Company, Energy Insights 13
Slide 14: Under investment – a lead indicator for oil price
Under investment – a lead indicator for oil price For personal use only 14
Slide 15: Phoenix and Roc project
For personal use only Phoenix and Roc project Gas and (condensate + oil)
Slide 16: Phoenix / Roc project ~22,000km2 on the NWS
Phoenix / Roc project ~22,000km2 on the NWS For personal use only Roc / Phoenix project CVN 20 – 30% 16
Slide 17: Roc / Phoenix project – in the beginning
Roc / Phoenix project – in the beginning For personal use only 1980 Phoenix-1 well (BP) 1982 Phoenix-2 well (BP) 2009 Acquired 2012 Farm out • transferred equity • operational funding 17
Slide 18: Phoenix South-1 oil discovery
Phoenix South-1 oil discovery For personal use only 1980 Phoenix-1 well (BP) 1982 Phoenix-2 well (BP) 2014 Phoenix South-1 (oil) 18
Slide 19: Roc-1 & gas & condensate discoveries
Roc-1 & 2 gas & condensate discoveries For personal use only 1980 Phoenix-1 well (BP) 1982 Phoenix-2 well (BP) 2014 Phoenix South-1 (oil) 2016 Roc-1 (gas & cond.) 2016 Roc-2 (gas & cond.) 19
Slide 20: Roc-2 gas & condensate flow test
Roc-2 gas & condensate flow test For personal use only 1980 Phoenix-1 well (BP) 1982 Phoenix-2 well (BP) 2014 Phoenix South-1 (oil) 2016 Roc-1 (gas & cond.) 2016 Roc-2 (gas & cond.) 20
Slide 21: Phoenix South-2 currently drilling
Phoenix South-2 currently drilling For personal use only 1980 Phoenix-1 well (BP) 1982 Phoenix-2 well (BP) 2014 Phoenix South-1 (oil) 2016 Roc-1 (gas & cond.) 2016 Roc-2 (gas & cond.) 2016 Phoenix Sth-2 (ogc) 21
Slide 22: Dorado well being considered in 2017
Dorado well being considered in 2017 For personal use only 1980 Phoenix-1 well (BP) 1982 Phoenix-2 well (BP) 2014 Phoenix South-1 (oil) 2016 Roc-1 (gas & cond.) 2016 Roc-2 (gas & cond.) 2016 Phoenix Sth-2 (ogc) 2017? Dorado (gas & cond.) 22
Slide 23: Volume Estimates
Volume Estimates For personal use only All volumes below are mmboe – net to Carnarvon – 2C or Pmean as applicable 250 8 200 150 7 100 6 5 50 4 3 2 1 0 Roc gas Phoeinx South oil Dorado gas Other gas & oil & gas 5 – Phoenix South Hove Pmean: 16.9 mmboe 1 – Roc Caley 2C: 15.6 mmboe 6 – Dorado Caley Pme
Slide 24: Volume Estimates
Volume Estimates For personal use only All volumes below are mmboe – net to Carnarvon – 2C or Pmean as applicable 250 200 150 100 Risked Boe¹ 50 Indicative MEFS² 0 Roc gas Phoeinx South oil Dorado gas Other gas & oil & gas ¹ - 2C of table 4, plus risked mmboe of table 5 and 6 in ASX announcement on
Slide 25: Gas shortage - looming as an issue for WA
Gas shortage - looming as an issue for WA For personal use only 25
Slide 26: Gas prices - forecast to rise
Gas prices - forecast to rise For personal use only WA DOMGAS shortfall F Appraisal FEED I Construction Production¹ D ¹ Indicative Roc / Phoenix area project schedule 26
Slide 27: Development concept
Development concept For personal use only 27
Slide 28: Technical & portfolio overview
For personal use only Technical & portfolio overview (is the NWS the North Sea of 30 years ago?)
Slide 29: Technical strategy
Technical strategy For personal use only Our strategy Identify large oil and gas prospects the majors would like to drill when the oil price turns. How Acquire blocks cheaply in the low of the oil cycle via gazettals or farmins: - SIMPLE IDEA….but few are doing this - Generational opportunity to acq
Slide 30: The Portfolio – what and why
The Portfolio – what and why For personal use only Buffalo CVN 100% WA-521-P Maracas CVN 100% CVN 100% Outtrim CVN 28.5% Cerberus CVN 100% 30
Slide 31: NWS shallow water stratigraphy
NWS shallow water stratigraphy For personal use only Tertiary/Upper Cretaceous - A few fields of this age e.g. Maitland - Northern WA has fault leakage into this stratigraphy - Rarely explored and often not logged/cuttings to seabed Lower Cretaceous - CVN on the lookout for remaining undrilled struc
Slide 32: Cerberus project
Cerberus project For personal use only Multiple shallow water prospects M 32
Slide 33: Outtrim project
Outtrim project For personal use only Acquired: 1Q 2016 Outtrim East Oil discovery July 2016 KEY EVENT: - 90m core analysis Blencathra 2km - TCM early 2017 Outtrim East core Ultraviolet light photo Outtrim East drilled June/July 2016 Targeted oil up dip of Outtrim-1 Aggregation possible CVN%: 28.5%
Slide 34: WA-521-P adjacent Phoenix / Roc project
WA-521-P adjacent Phoenix / Roc project For personal use only Large multi stacked shallow and deeper oil prone prospects Aiming to be ready for farm out next year A WA-521-P Roc acreage A’ 50km Lower Triassic/Jurassic Source rocks 34
Slide 35: Buffalo project
Buffalo project For personal use only Image of Nexan Buffalo FPSO on station in the Buffalo oil field between 1999 and 2004 Seismic technology play Acquired 27th May 2016 opener Years 1-3: 3D seismic FWI reprocessing Proven oil Expected to be ready for farm Stacked resource potential out towards end
Slide 36: Buffalo project – 1.3 billion boe surround this permit
Buffalo project – 1.3 billion boe surround this permit For personal use only 1. Buffalo redevelopment 2. “cheating” exploration 3. Undrilled prospects Top Elang TWT map • Note live net/gross oil columns at : • Bluff-1 17m/33m • Buller-1 8m/26.5m • Both wells lie under the 3D, and may be subject to s
Slide 37: Buffalo project – goal to understand the reefs
Buffalo project – goal to understand the reefs For personal use only Echuca Shoals TWT map • Light blue shading is surface reefs Laminaria oilfield Kitan • Reefs play havoc with imaging oil prospects oilfield Buffalo • CVN using FWI reprocessing to image reefs oilfield • Complete FWI 3D seismic repr
Slide 38: Buffalo project – FWI 1/3rd complete – Due mid 2017
Buffalo project – FWI 1/3rd complete – Due mid 2017 For personal use only Imaging the shallow reefs will allow us to understand the structures below Narrow Patch/Aper1000m Improving velocity structure using FWI reprocessing Reef Narrow Patch/Aper1500m Reef WidePatch/Aper1500m 38
Slide 39: Maracas project
Maracas project For personal use only • Acquired 9th September 2016 • Permian Play- 3 large prospects • Cretaceous Play- depth closures to be identified • First 3 years: reprocess 3D – light work programme Potential Hydrocarbon Accumulation Reservoir Seal TWT Seal 10km
Slide 40: Technical strategy
Technical strategy For personal use only Our strategy Identify large oil and gas prospects the majors would like to drill when the oil price turns. How Acquire blocks cheaply in the low of the oil cycle via gazettals or farmins: - SIMPLE IDEA….but few are doing this - Generational opportunity to acq
Slide 41: Wrap up
For personal use only Wrap up Opportunity in spades
Slide 42: 2017 plans
2017 plans For personal use only Phoenix South-2 well results Update volumes on Phoenix South-2 results Mature portfolio to attract drilling capital Dorado-1 well potential Roc well potential 42
Slide 43: Conclusion
Conclusion For personal use only Clear strategy High impact portfolio Phoenix / Roc lead project Management capability Strong financial position 43
Slide 44: Questions
For personal use only 44 Questions
Slide 45: Think Different, Act Different
For personal use only Think Different Act Different 45
Carnarvon Petroleum — Shareholder Meeting (November 2016) on 6ix