Permanent TSB Group Holdings PLC · EURONEXT:PTSB
Permanent TSB — H1 2008 Earnings Presentation
26 slides from Permanent TSB's earnings presentation, June 2008
Slide 1: ESRI/permanent tsb House Price Index Half Year Results June 2008
ESRI /permanent tsb House Price Index Half Year Results June 2008
Slide 2: Agenda
2 House Price Index Agenda National and Regional findings Demand Outlook Summary Questions?
Slide 3: 1st Half 2008 Findings
3 House Price Index 1st Half 2008 Findings
Slide 4: Key findings
4 House Price Index Key findings National house prices reduced by 5.0% in first six months of 2008, compared to -2.6% last year. 1st half price reduction greater Outside Dublin (5.1%) than in Dublin (4.5%). Prices were reduced by 5.9% in the Commuter counties, year to date June 2008. Reducti
Slide 5: 1st Half Year Price Growth 2000 - 2008
5 House Price Index 1st Half Year Price Growth 2000 - 2008 June prices National Dublin Outside Dublin 2008 -5.0% -4.5% -5.1% 2007 -2.6% -2.0% -3.2% 2006 8.0% 9.2% 7.9% 2005 2.5% 3.5% 2.3% 2004 4.7% 4.2% 5.8% 2003 6.9% 7.2% 5.5% 2002 5.5% 6.7% 5.1% 2001 4.9% 6.3% 4.4% 2000 10.6% 13.2% 10.1%
Slide 6: National House Prices
6 House Price Index National House Prices 6 month growth rates compared 13.0% 10.6% 9.7% 10.0% 7.3% 8.0% 6.9% 6.4% 6.7% 7.0% 5.5% 4.9% 4.7% 3.7% 3.8% 4.0% 2.5% 1.0% -5.0% -0.4% -2.6% -2.0% -4.7% -5.0% Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- 00 00 01 01 02
Slide 7: Dublin, Outside Dublin & Commuter counties
7 Dublin, Outside Dublin & Commuter counties House Price Index YOY rate in Dublin to June 2008 reducing at a faster rate than the Commuter Counties and Outside Dublin 19% Outside Dub Dublin 14% Commuter 9% 4% -1% Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- 01 02 02 03 03 04
Slide 8: National & Regional Price Trends
8 House Price Index National & Regional Price Trends Change in price trends YTD June 2008 450 427 398 400 Dublin 369 380 350 Commuter 335 344 National 307 299 321 273 311 300 Outside Dublin 271 288 303 256 278 273 250 223 254 266 249 237 225 235 234 204 206 240 200 196 220 185 204 159 167 180 150 13
Slide 9: Existing versus new houses
9 House Price Index Existing versus new houses YOY rate in existing house prices reducing at a faster rate 25% New 20% Existing 15% 10% 5% 0% Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 -5% Jun '04 Jun '05 Jun '06 Jun '07 Jun '08 -8
Slide 10: First versus second time buyers
10 House Price Index First versus second time buyers STB YOY rate dropping faster than FTB rate 20% FTB 15% STB 10% 5% 0% Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- 01 02 02 03 03 04 04 05 05 06 06 07 07 08 -5% Jun '04 Jun '05 Jun '06 Jun '07 Jun '08 -8.7% -10% FTB 10.0% 8
Slide 11: Regional House Prices - Growth since 1996
11 House Price Index Regional House Prices - Growth since 1996 Dublin, Mideast & SW outstrip National growth 380% 346% 330% 288% 267% 275% 280% 259% 260% 226% 202% 211% 230% 180% 130% 80% al nd SE lin SW t st r t es es de n ea ub la io W w or id id at id D B M M N M
Slide 12: Regional House Prices
12 House Price Index Regional House Prices First half 2008 growth - 6 Month average rate 1% 0% -1% 1%- -2% -3% -4% 4%- 4%- 4%- 4%- 4%- -5% 5%- -6% 6%- -7% 7%- -8% -9% in id l er nd st t SE Na st SW na es bl ea e rd la tio W w Du Bo id id M M M Note: Dublin growth rate included for reference purposes
Slide 13: Demand and Supply factors
13 House Price Index Demand and Supply factors
Slide 14: Housing completions back to 1998 levels
14 House Price Index Housing completions back to 1998 levels Source: Department of the Environment (DOE) House Completions 100,000 93,419 90,000 80,957 76,954 78,027 80,000 68,819 70,000 57,695 60,000 49,812 52,602 50,000 42,349 46,512 40,000 38,842 40,000 33,700 30,000 f 07 05 06 04 02 03 01 00 99
Slide 15: Housing Demand - Components
15 House Price Index Housing Demand - Components 90 80 70 T housand 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1991-96 1997-02 2003-06 2007-11 2012-16 2017-21 2022-26 Population Growth Change in Headship Migration Vacant Obsolescence
Slide 16: Average GNP growth
16 House Price Index Average GNP growth 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 90 - 95 95 - 00 00 - 05 05 - 10 10 - 15 15 - 20 20 - 25 19 19 20 20 20 20 20
Slide 17: Growth in personal income to continue
17 House Price Index Growth in personal income to continue Source ESRI 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Personal income Personal disposable income
Slide 18: Unemployment rate continues to be lower than EU area average
Unemployment rate continues to be 18 House Price Index lower than EU area average Source ESRI 20 15 % 10 5 0 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Slide 19: Summary
House Price Index Summary age permanent tsb
Slide 20: Summary & Conclusions
20 Summary & Conclusions House Price Index National prices reduced by 5.0% in 1st half 2008 - back to Nov ’05 levels. Year-on-Year prices down 9.7%. Some regional variation in price trends. Supply responding to lower demand levels. Stable medium term outlook. Demand dampened by consumer
Slide 21: Appendix
21 House Price Index Appendix
Slide 22: Regional Listing
22 House Price Index REGIONAL LISTING BORDER - Cavan; Donegal; Leitrim; Louth; Monaghan; Sligo. MIDEAST - Kildare; Meath; Wicklow. MIDLANDS - Laois; Longford; Offaly; Westmeath. MIDWEST - Clare; Limerick; Tipperary North. SOUTH EAST - Carlow; Kilkenny; Wexford; Waterford; Tipperary South.
Slide 23: How is the Index calculated?
23 House Price Index How is the Index calculated? Constructed using internationally recognised economic methodology - hedonic regression Similar to methodology employed by Halifax and Nationwide in the UK Information on houses for which permanent tsb provides a mortgage – in excess 20% of mark
Slide 24: Hedonic Regression
24 House Price Index Hedonic Regression Regression gives predicted price for that period Log P = a + b1FTB + b2Semi-Det + b3Tce + b4Apt+ b5New + b6Footage + b7Garage…………. Co-efficients are the “implicit” price Replace the weights in each period with the base period weights
Slide 25: Calculating the price index
25 House Price Index Calculating the price index Index is calculated using set of characteristics frequencies (base year weights) and applying the successive set of prices Mix-adjusting to the base year Shows price in each period had the average dwelling size and mix of other characteristics b
Slide 26: References
26 House Price Index References Methodology note on websites Conniffe, D., and D.Duffy, 1999, “Irish House Price Indices: Methodological Issues” Economic and Social Review, Vol.30, No.4, October, (www.esr.ie)
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