Ameren Corporation · NYSE:AEE
Ameren — Investor Presentation (March 2024)
39 slides from Ameren's investor presentation, Mar 18, 2024
Slide 1: Powering a Reliable, Sustainable Tomorrow
Powering a Reliable, Sustainable Tomorrow Late March Investor Meetings 2024
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented weather-normalized and core earnings per share and operations and maintenance expenses excluding COLI, which are non-GAAP financial measures and may not be comparable to those of other companies. A re
Slide 3: Company Description
Company Description Fully rate-regulated electric and natural gas utility Ameren Businesses 2.4M electric Ameren Missouri customers • Electric transmission, distribution, and generation business and a natural gas distribution business in Missouri regulated by MoPSC 0.9M gas • Serves 1.2 million elec
Slide 4: Our Value Proposition for Customers, Shareholders and the Environment
Our Value Proposition for Customers, Shareholders and the Environment Attractive dividend Strong long-term and long-term dividend growth Attractive total growth outlook outlook return potential • Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR 2024-20281,2 • Annualized equivalent dividend rate of • Track record of deliver
Slide 5: Our Sustainability Value Proposition
Our Sustainability Value Proposition ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP SOCIAL IMPACT • Responsibly transitioning to a cleaner and more diverse portfolio • Delivered value to customers in 2023 while focused on safety ‒ Target carbon reductions from 2005 levels: 60% by 2030; 85% by 2040; net ‒ Ameren-supplied
Slide 6: Strong Track Record of EPS and Dividend Growth
Strong Track Record of EPS and Dividend Growth Weather-Normalized Core Dividends Paid per Share3 Total Shareholder Earnings per Diluted Share1 and Payout as a % of WN EPS Return $4.50 +112% or $2.80 ~+58% 2013 to 2023 $4.62 180% $4.25 ~7.8% CAGR 2013 to 2023 $4.41 $2.60 $2.68 | 58% , 2013 to 2023 17
Slide 7: Our Strategic Plan
Our Strategic Plan INVEST ENHANCE OPTIMIZE Enhance regulatory Invest in rate regulated Optimize operating frameworks and advocate energy infrastructure performance for responsible policies To capitalize on opportunities to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment Late Mar
Slide 8: Four Regulatory Frameworks
Four Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated: Formula ratemaking Ameren • Allowed ROE is 10.52%, includes MISO participation adder of 50 basis points; ~56% average equity ratio Transmission • Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation ICC-regulated: Future t
Slide 9: Expect to Deliver Strong Long-Term EPS and Dividend Growth
Expect to Deliver Strong Long-Term EPS and Dividend Growth • Expect 2024 EPS in a range of $4.52 to $4.721 – Midpoint represents 6.2% EPS growth compared to 2023 original guidance midpoint of $4.35 Original EPS Guidance • Remain on track to deliver strong long-term earnings growth – Expect 6% to 8%
Slide 10: Strategically Allocated Rate Base Growth
Strategically Allocated Rate Base Growth1 Increased five-year infrastructure investment plan by $2.2B2 $21.9 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure Investment 2023 to 2028E Regulated Five-Year Rate 2024-20285 Infrastructure Rate Base3,4,5 Base CAGR4,5 Ameren Illinois ($ billions) Ameren Illinois $36.4
Slide 11: Expected 2024-2028 Funding Plan
Expected 2024-2028 Funding Plan1 • Cash from Operations – ~$2 billion of income tax deferrals and tax asset utilization • Income tax deferrals primarily driven by capital expenditures • Includes utilization of ~$60 million of federal and state tax credit carryforwards at year- end 2023 • 15% corpora
Slide 12: Ameren Missouri Solar Projects
Ameren Missouri Solar Projects Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment Huck Cass Bowling Boomtown2,3 Split Rail Vandalia Finn1,2 County3 Green Facility size 200-MW 150-MW 300-MW 150-MW 50-MW 50-MW Agreement Development
Slide 13: MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Roadmap
MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Roadmap Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment • In Nov. 2023, ATXI submitted bid for remaining Tranche 1 competitive project – Denny-Zachary-Thomas Hill-Maywood project – Expect
Slide 14: Investing in the Energy Grid
Investing in the Energy Grid • Investing to modernize energy grid, making it cleaner, safer, more reliable, resilient and secure – Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with the MoPSC supporting infrastructure investment to 2023-2028E Regulated modernize the grid Infrastructure Rate Base2 – Expect
Slide 15: Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade
Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade1 Modernizing the grid and investing in cleaner generation Investment Plan 2024-2028 ($ billions) $55B+ $21.9 Strong Pipeline of Regulated Infrastructure Investments $4.1 2024-2033 $1.8 • Modernize electric and gas transmission an
Slide 16: Financial and Regulatory Update
Financial and Regulatory Update Ameren Missouri’s Montgomery Community Solar Energy Center in service March 2022
Slide 17: 2023 Earnings Analysis Key Variance Drivers
2023 Earnings Analysis Key Variance Drivers1 ↑ Ameren Transmission earnings — Increased investments in infrastructure ↑ Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution earnings Diluted EPS1 — Increased investments in infrastructure; higher allowed ROE 2022 vs. 2023 ↑ Ameren Illinois Natural Gas earnings — Inc
Slide 18: 2024 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions
2024 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions1 Midpoint represents ~6% EPS growth compared to 2023 original guidance midpoint of $4.35 ↑ Higher investments in infrastructure eligible for PISA and AFUDC: ~+$0.18 ↑ New electric service rates effective July 9, 2023: ~+$0.08 2024 EPS Guidance ↑ Hi
Slide 19: 2024 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions
2024 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions1 Midpoint represents ~6% EPS growth compared to 2023 original guidance midpoint of $4.35 ↓ Lower allowed ROE of 8.72% compared to 9.9% in 2023 Ameren Illinois — 50 bps change in ROE impacts EPS by ~$0.04 annually2 2024 Electric — Rate base change o
Slide 20: Ameren Organizational Structure and External Debt Balances
Ameren Organizational Structure and External Debt Balances1 $ in millions as of Dec. 31, 2023 All Moody’s and S&P outlooks “Stable” Ameren Corporation (Baa1/BBB+) Sr. Unsecured (Baa1/BBB) - $3,850 Commercial Paper (P-2/A-2) - $0 Ameren Missouri Ameren Illinois ATXI (Baa1/BBB+) (A3/BBB+) (A2/-) Sr. S
Slide 21: Long-Term Debt Maturities and Interest Rates
Long-Term Debt Maturities and Interest Rates Issuer 20241 2025 2026 2027 2028 $350 million 3.65% senior unsecured notes $450 million 2.50% $500 million 1.95% $450 million 1.75% Ameren Corp. senior unsecured notes senior unsecured notes senior unsecured notes $600 million 5.70% senior unsecured notes
Slide 22: Missouri Electric Regulatory Matters
Missouri Electric Regulatory Matters Securitization of Rush Island • On Sep. 30, 2023, U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Procedural Schedule Missouri granted Ameren Missouri’s request to extend retirement (Docket No.: EF-2024-0021) date from Mar. 30, 2024 to Oct. 15, 2024 Mar. 22, 2024
Slide 23: Illinois Regulatory Matters
Illinois Regulatory Matters Natural Gas Distribution • On Nov. 16, 2023, ICC approved a $112 million annual base rate increase; includes $77 million that would otherwise be recovered in 2024 under riders – 2024 future test year – 9.44% allowed return on equity and 50% common equity ratio – $2.85 bil
Slide 24: Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027
Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027 Electric Distribution MYRP ICC Dec. Order • On Dec. 14, 2023, ICC approved a cumulative increase of $142 million in revenues versus Ameren Illinois’ request of $444 million – ICC rejected Multi-Year Grid Plan and adopted alternative rate base and revenue
Slide 25: Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027, cont’d
Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027, cont’d Electric Distribution AIC REHEARING TESTIMONY • On Feb. 29, 2024, Ameren Illinois filed rehearing testimony requesting a cumulative revenue increase of ~$307 million1 Key 2024 2025 2026 2027 Components – Includes 2023 rate base and base level of
Slide 26: Focused on Disciplined Cost Management to Drive Affordability
Focused on Disciplined Cost Management to Drive Affordability Optimize operating performance to benefit our customers, shareholders and the environment • Track record of disciplined cost management – Target flat operations and maintenance expenses through 2028 • Maintaining focus on continuous impro
Slide 27: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 28: Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filed with MoPSC Sept. 2023
Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filed with MoPSC Sept. 2023 Least-cost approach to reliably meet customer energy needs in an environmentally responsible manner • Carbon emissions1: Targets substantial reductions; 60% by 2030, 85% by 2040 and net-zero by 2045 • Coal: All energy centers retired by 2
Slide 29: Building a Brighter and Cleaner Energy Future
Building a Brighter and Cleaner Energy Future Innovative Programs to Meet Customer Needs and Rising Expectations Utility-owned solar Subscription program generation in MO that available to MO residential benefits diverse Neighborhood Community and small business communities with jobs training, solar
Slide 30: Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with MoPSC on Feb. 23
Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with MoPSC on Feb. 23 Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, shareholders and the environment • $1.7 billion invested in 2023 to support reliability, address aged infrastructure and provide clean energy to the customers and
Slide 31: Federal Energy Legislation
Federal Energy Legislation • Inflation Reduction Act enacted in Aug. 2022 – Enhances affordability of the clean energy transition for customers in Missouri and Illinois • Ameren Missouri customers expected to save ~$1.6 billion by 2033, as result of wind and solar tax credits1 • Ameren Illinois cust
Slide 32: Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan Performance Metrics
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan Performance Metrics Adjustment / Metric Description Incentive (+/- bps) Improve System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) systemwide; improve interruption and 1. Reliability duration outages (SAIDI, SAIFI, CEMI, and CELID) in enviro
Slide 33: Solid Sustainability Ratings
Solid Sustainability Ratings AAA 0 A Sept. 2023 July 2023 Feb. 2024 A Climate B 27.2 Medium Risk Water B Range: Range: Range: A-F AAA-CCC 0-100 (A is best) (AAA is best) (Lower is better) CCC 100 F Ameren Corp. 98.6 Trendsetter Oct. 2023 Late March Investor Meetings | 2024 33
Slide 34: Ameren’s Estimated Coal-Related Revenues in 2023
Ameren’s Estimated Coal-Related Revenues in 2023 Return on Investment Revenues Cost Recovery3 Revenues $1.97B1 x $1.97B1 x ($98M x $466M + 51.9%2 x 48.1% x 25%) / (1 $171M x $131M + 9.59%2 = 3.93% = - 25%) 17%1 = $265M = $98M $37M $33M $29M $862M $7,500M 14% Return on Interest Tax Expense Property F
Slide 35: GAAP to Core Earnings Per Share Reconciliations
GAAP to Core Earnings Per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $1.18 $2.40 $2.59 $2.68 $2.14 $3.32 $3.35 $3.50 $3.84 $4.14 $4.38 Exclude results from discontinued operations 0.87 — (0.01) — — — — — — — — Less: In
Slide 36: Weather-Normalized Earnings per Share Reconciliations
Weather-Normalized Earnings per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Core1 Diluted EPS $2.10 $2.40 $2.56 $2.68 $2.83 $3.37 $3.35 $3.50 $3.84 $4.14 $4.38 Ameren Missouri weather impact included in margins 0.03 0.05 (0.04) 0.16 (0.07) 0.43 0.
Slide 37: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL 2024 MAY 2024 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 30 1 1 2 3 4 Australian Australian Australian Q1 Investor Investor Investor Earnings Meetings Meetings Meetings Call 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 5
Slide 38: Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters
Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • Right of First Refusal bill (HB1449 and SB805): https://house.mo.gov/ and https://www.senate.mo.gov/ • Special Ratemaking for new generation bill (HB2541/HB1746 and SB1422): https://house.mo.gov/ and https://www.senate.mo
Slide 39: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations AFUDC – Allowance for funds used during construction IRP – Integrated resource plan ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois LRTP – Long Range Transmission Planning B – Billion LT – Long-term bps – Basis points M – Million CEJA – Climate and Equitable Jobs A