Tenaga Nasional Bhd · MYX:TENAGA
Tenaga Nasional Bhd — 9MFY2023 Earnings Presentation
39 slides from Tenaga Nasional Bhd's earnings presentation, Nov 28, 2023
Slide 1: Analyst Briefing 3QFY2023
ANALYST BRIEFING 3QFY2023 28 November 2023
Slide 2: 9MFY2023 PAT impacted by negative fuel margin
Amid a challenging environment, our 9MFY2023 PAT was impacted by negative fuel margin REVENUE EBITDA PAT (RM mil) (RM mil) (RM mil) 9MFY2023 +3.9% 9MFY2023 9MFY2023 (12.1%) (24.4%) RM39,414.9 RM14,342.8 RM2,079.2 EBITDA MARGIN: 36.4%* 9MFY2022:RM 37,952.6 9MFY2022: RM16,314.2 9MFY2022: RM2,749.5 EBI
Slide 3: Group earnings supported by improved generation and network performance
Group earnings supported by; (i) Improved generation business (ii) World-class network performance 9MFY2023 Equivalent Plant Availability Factor, EAF 84.2% EAF performance secured generation assets’ (Generation) 9MFY2022: 82.8% capacity revenue % 2023 Target: 81.80% 9MFY2023 System Minutes (Transmis
Slide 4: Lower receivables and improved collection stabilised cash flow
Lower receivables contributed by easing fuel price trend and improvement in collection stabilised our cash flow position Receivables (RM bil) 1 ICPT Cost • TNB will recover from the Government RM4.7 bil of Recovery for ICPT cost for July to December 2023. 2HFY2023 • To date, TNB has received RM2.35
Slide 5: FY2023 outlook on track, accelerating Energy Transition Plan
The FY2023 outlook is on track, with a focus on accelerating the Energy Transition Plan to achieve Net Zero by 2050 Delivering Value to our Shareholders Latest demand growth is 1.7% (120,933 GWh)* (IBR reference: 116,367 GWh) We will continue to honour our dividend policy of 30% - Electricity Demand
Slide 6: TNB transitioning into green entity with ~7,800MW pipeline
Energy Sources TNB transitioning into green entity with a strong ~7,800MW pipeline ready to be explored TNB pledge for no more coal plants. We will replace retiring coal plants with green pipeline projects. GenCo New Energy Division (NED) Electricity Export to Singapore 100MW TNB Bukit Selambau Sola
Slide 7: Entrusted with NETR flagship projects
Energy Sources Entrusted with NETR flagship projects that promises tremendous growth opportunities Deliver Renewable Energy Deploy RE at scale through Invest in clean tech at scale through Zones through Solar Parks Hydropower-floating solar plants Co-firing of Hydrogen & Ammonia Large-Scale Solar Pa
Slide 8: Grid of the Future key to NETR success
Energy Sources Grid of the Future is key to NETR success while interconnection continues to see encouraging bilateral developments RM8.20 bil for RP3 Key Collaborations Supporting the Energy Transition (ET) and PT PLN and ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) RAB growth Feasibility study for Cross-Border El
Slide 9: Data centre projects completed ahead of time
Energy Vector Completed a total of 6 data centre projects for 292MW ahead of time; strong potential demand as we commit to regional hub aspiration Data Centre Memorandum of Understanding • Collaborate on renewable energy supply for JHB1 data centre campus. Key Achievements • Explore the application
Slide 10: Latest MOU and green lane supply connection for EV
Energy Usage Latest MOU paves exciting regional growth prospect while the green lane supply connection is TNB’s commitment to support rapid demand of EV infrastructure nationwide Electric Vehicle (EV) National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR) Green Lane Supply Connection 2025 Target: • TNB introduce
Slide 11: GSPARX progress and strategic partnerships
Energy Usage GSPARX continues to make headway achieving 80% of 2023 target; strategic partnership under NETR projects fuel future growth GSPARX Highlights • Signed MoU on 28 August 2023 to collaborate with RHB, to accelerate energy transition National Energy Transition Roadmap (NETR) through green f
Slide 12: Appendix
Appendix 9M FY2023 o Details on Financial Results o Generation Business Performance o International Business Performance o Shareholdings
Slide 13: Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) analysis
Year-on-Year (Y-o-Y) analysis Variance RM mil 9MFY23 9MFY22 Y-o-Y analysis: RM mil % Revenue 1 39,414.9 37,952.6 1,462.3 3.9 Higher Group revenue driven by sales 1 Imbalance Cost Pass Through (ICPT) 8,491.6 15,917.6 (7,426.0) (46.7) demand growth of 2.7% and Operating expenses (without depreciation)
Slide 14: Quarter vs previous quarter analysis
Quarter vs previous quarter (3QFY23 vs 2QFY23) analysis Variance RM mil 3QFY23 2QFY23 RM mil % Q-o-PrevQ analysis: Revenue 1 13,466.1 13,323.2 142.9 1.1 Imbalance Cost Pass Through (ICPT) 2 1,999.1 2,860.2 (861.1) (30.1) 1 Higher revenue mainly due to Operating expenses (without depreciation) (10,90
Slide 15: Y-o-Y normalised EBITDA & PAT for 9MFY23
Y-o-Y normalised EBITDA & PAT for 9MFY23 EBITDA 9MFY23 9MFY22 1 MFRS16 impact: Components RM mil RM mil 9MFY23 9MFY22 Variance Reported EBITDA 14,342.8 16,314.2 RM mil RM mil RM mil MFRS16 impact 1 (3,174.7) (3,328.0) Capacity Payment 3,174.7 3,328.0 (153.3) Normalised EBITDA 11,168.1 12,986.2 Depre
Slide 16: Higher Y-o-Y sales of electricity for the Group
Higher Y-o-Y sales of electricity for the Group mainly driven by stronger economic growth and UK investments Variance Variance 3QFY23 2QFY23 9MFY23 9MFY22 1 (3QFY23 vs 2QFY23) (9MFY23 vs 9MFY22) 3QFY23 vs 2QFY23: Higher units sold and UNITS SOLD GWh GWh GWh % GWh GWh GWh % sales of electricity from
Slide 17: Other regulatory adjustment of RM988.3 mil to be returned
As at 9MFY23, other regulatory adjustment of RM988.3 mil to be returned 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 9MFY23 9MFY22 Components of Other Regulatory Adjustment RM mil RM mil RM mil RM mil RM mil Revenue Adjustment for Revenue Cap & Price Cap (1.4) (418.1) (384.3) 1 (803.8) (495.4) Refund Related to Regulated B
Slide 18: Y-o-Y electricity demand grew in tandem with GDP
Y-o-Y electricity demand grew in tandem with GDP % GDP & TNB Demand Growth TNB (Peninsular) Yearly Peak Demand 8.7 Full Year 5.9 * MW 5.0 4.2 4.7 4.3 19,716 3.1 6.0 19,183 18,808 2.2 2.5 2.5 3.2 2.7 1.2 18,566 18,585 18,338 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 17,788 -4.9 17,790 Recorded on: -5.6
Slide 19: Demand contributed by commercial and domestic sectors
Improved Y-o-Y electricity demand mainly contributed by commercial and domestic sectors Industrial Commercial (3.1%) 6.7% 9MFY23 main contributors for the increase in (3.4%) (4.2%) (1.6%) commercial sector: 6.2% 7.1% 6.8% • Retails, business services and accommodation services 10,699 10,232 10,925 1
Slide 20: Lower Y-o-Y operating expenses due to lower generation cost
Lower Y-o-Y operating expenses due to lower generation cost Variance Variance 3QFY23 2QFY23 9MFY23 9MFY22 (3QFY23 vs 2QFY23) (9MFY23 vs 9MFY22) RM mil RM mil RM mil % RM mil RM mil RM mil % Non-TNB IPPs Costs 3,797.0 4,001.0 (204.0) (5.1) 11,506.3 12,901.8 (1,395.5) (10.8) Capacity Payment 30.9 14.9
Slide 21: Lower overall fuel cost due to lower coal price in 9MFY23
Lower overall fuel cost due to lower coal price in 9MFY23 Table A – TNB & IPP Fuel Costs for Peninsular (RM mil) Table C – Fuel Costs Related Data Variance Fuel statistics 9MFY23 9MFY22 Fuel Type 9MFY23 9MFY22 Average Coal Price Delivered (USD/MT)(CIF) 139.9 209.7 RM mil % Average Coal Price Deliver
Slide 22: Lower Q-o-Q fuel costs mainly due to lower coal price
Lower Q-o-Q fuel costs mainly due to lower coal price Table A – TNB & IPP Fuel Costs for Peninsular (RM mil) Table C – Fuel Costs Related Data Variance 3QFY23 vs 2QFY23 Fuel statistics 3QFY23 2QFY23 1QFY23 Fuel Type 3QFY23 2QFY23 1QFY23 RM mil % Average Coal Price Delivered (USD/MT)(CIF) 111.8 137.3
Slide 23: Lower generation from coal in 3QFY23
Lower generation from coal in 3QFY23 Generation Mix for Industry (%) 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.6 4.8 3.5 6.3 6.2 5.2 5.1 4.0 4.5 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 54.1 57.8 56.5 55.1 55.9 53.7 60.1 58.6 39.1 37.1 35.8 36.7 37.2 39.5 35.1 34.0 1QFY22 2QFY22 3QFY22 4QFY22 FY22 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 G
Slide 24: Fuel Costs & Units Generated in 9MFY23
Fuel Costs & Units Generated (TNB & IPPs – Peninsular) in 9MFY23 Fuel Costs Units Generated Distillate TNB, 0% Distillate TNB, 0% Distillate IPP, 1% Distillate IPP, 0% LNG, 0% Oil TNB, 0% Oil TNB, 0% Oil IPP, 0% Oil IPP, 0% Hydro, 5% Solar TNB, 0% Gas IPP, 14% Solar IPP, 2% Distillate TNB, 0% Distil
Slide 25: TNB is neutral to volatility in fuel costs under ICPT
TNB is neutral to volatility in fuel costs under the ICPT framework 3QFY22 4QFY22 1QFY23 2QFY23 3QFY23 RM mil RM mil RM mil RM mil RM mil Single Buyer Actual Generation Costs: (A) 14,060.7 14,104.5 11,260.0 11,022.4 10,238.5 Actual Sales (GWh) 30,347.5 29,415.1 29,113.2 31,153.3 31,448.1 Single Buye
Slide 26: Illustration for Generators' Fuel Margin
Illustration for Generators’ Fuel Margin: Coal Price Trending Applicable Coal Price (ACP) vs Moving Average Price (MAP) 1,100.00 1,040.10 1,023.80 1,000.00 960.40 FY2022 FY2023 1,022.32 1,028.10 900.00 850.94 800.00 1,022.3 1,040.1 696.30 779.40 700.00 626.40 623.10 ACP<MAP 600.00 557.21 Negative 60
Slide 27: Industry coal requirement forecast for FY2023
Industry coal requirement forecast for FY2023 Coal Consumption (mil MT) Source Country Mix 3.0% 34.7 11.0% 30.8 32.3 31.9 32.3 27.4 28.8 25.4 22.2 16.0% 19.3 70.0% * FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 (F) Indonesia Australia * Based on tonnage planned for delivery in FY2023 Russia Sou
Slide 28: Group CAPEX, Regulated CAPEX and RAB
Group CAPEX Regulated CAPEX and Regulated Asset Base (RAB) RM mil 6,174.2 5,622.0 644.0 671.6 RP3 REGULATED ENTITIES CAPEX FY IBR Approved Actual YTD Utilisation 1,554.6 1,110.5 RM mil RM mil (%) 2023 6,973.1 4,806.8 68.9% 3,287.6 3,175.7 Total RAB (RM mil) Actual Approved As at 30 Sep 2023 FY2023 6
Slide 29: Gearing improved to 50.4% as at 9MFY23
Gearing improved to 50.4% as at 9MFY23 Statistics 30 Sep 2023 31 Dec 2022 Loan Breakdown Total Debt (RM bil) 61.2 63.9 RM3.5 bil RM1.3 bil RM RM1.6 bil USD Net Debt (RM bil)* 42.6 50.8 6% 2% JPY 3% GBP Gearing (%) 50.4 51.2 RM9.1 bil 3% 5% AUD 15% 13% RM8.5 bil RM3.2 bil Net Gearing (%) 35.1 40.7 RM
Slide 30: Trade debtors ageing as at 9MFY23
Trade debtors ageing as at 9MFY23 Trade Debtors Ageing (RM bil) Trade Receivables By Sectors (RM bil) 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.5 Total 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% Current 34% 34% 33% 35% 35% Others 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.2 1 Month 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Domestic 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 2 to 5 Months 38% 37% 38%
Slide 31: Domestic generation business performance
Domestic generation business performance RM mil REVENUE EBIT PROFIT AFTER TAX 19,727.6 19,959.2 EBIT without fuel 1,273.0 1,519.2 margin 2,435.9 1,110.0 505.1 9MFY23 9MFY22 9MFY23 9MFY22 (327.9) 9MFY23 9MFY22 Lower EBIT and PAT mainly due to: • Impact of negative fuel margin of RM767.9 mil; and • CR
Slide 32: Higher TNB coal contribution for 9MFY23
Higher TNB coal contribution for 9MFY23 due to higher units generated • % Actual Group revenue: 25% (9MFY22: 22%) • % Units generated: 37% (9MFY22: 35%) Distillate TNB, 0% Actual Group Revenue* Units Generated Distillate IPP, 0% Oil TNB, 0% Hydro, 5% Oil IPP, 0% Solar TNB, 0% Solar IPP, 2% 25% Gas I
Slide 33: Our RE journey is progressing well
Our RE journey is progressing well TNB RE Journey TNB Group RE Capacity Renewable capacity (MW) 1.1GW 18% 17% 15% (25%) 3.0GW 4,122 3,889 3,487 (75%) 1,114 993 Sep’23 716 (4.1GW) Achieved 3,008 2,896 2,771 50% of target capacity RE Sep RE Dec RE Dec 3.6GW of 8.3GW by 2025 2023 2022 2021 3.5GW (43%)
Slide 34: International Investments: Renewable Energy (RE)
International Investments: Renewable Energy (RE) TNB International TNBI is a TNB wholly owned subsidiary incorporated Sdn Bhd under the laws of Malaysia on 23 February 2006 as a private limited company. Vantage RE Objective/Rationale: A platform focused on capturing RE opportunities, United Kingdom
Slide 35: International Investments: Renewable Energy (RE)
International Investments: Renewable Energy (RE) As at Q3 FY23 TNB INTERNATIONAL SDN BHD Financial Performance Higher EBITDA Y-o-Y (Q3 FY23: RM 442.6 mil vs Q3 FY22: RM286.6 mil) due to: • Additional contribution from newly acquired onshore wind portfolio in the UK (97.3MW) in April 2022. • Higher t
Slide 36: International Business – Non-RE Assets
International Business – Non-RE Assets As at Q3 FY23 Financial Performance Lower EBITDA Y-o-Y RM467.9 mil (SAR388.8 mil) vs RM872.8 mil (SAR725.3 mil) due to lower revenue as a result of reclassification from operating lease to finance lease due to SWEC's project restructuring after the signing of t
Slide 37: Shareholdings
Shareholdings Khazanah Nasional Berhad 15.7 18.3 Permodalan Nasional Berhad (PNB) 18.3 15.8 7.4 Employees Provident Fund Board (EPF) 7.3 1.7 Kumpulan Wang Persaraan (KWAP) (%) 1.8 Other Government Agencies 25.5 18.2 23.5 13.1 20.5 Local Corporation & Retail Foreign Shareholding 12.9 Pacific, Africa,
Slide 38: Disclaimer
Disclaimer This presentation and discussion may contain forward looking statements by Tenaga Nasional Berhad related to financial trends for future periods. Some of the statements contained in this presentation or arising from this discussion which are not of historical facts are statements of futur
Slide 39: Investor Relations
INVESTOR RELATIONS IR OFFICERS: GROUP FINANCE DIVISION Sarah Keok Tenaga Nasional Berhad +603 2108 2126 | sarahk@tnb.com.my Level 12, Tower A, TNB Platinum No. 3, Jalan Bukit Pantai, Bangsar 59100 Kuala Lumpur Sakinah Mohd Ali +603 2108 2840 | sakinah.ali@tnb.com.my Tel : +603 2108 2128 Fax : +603 2
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