Ameren Corporation · NYSE:AEE
Ameren — Q1 2024 Earnings Presentation
39 slides from Ameren's earnings presentation, May 3, 2024
Slide 1: Powering a Reliable, Sustainable Tomorrow
Powering a Reliable, Sustainable Tomorrow First Quarter 2024 Earnings May 3, 2024
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Forward-looking Statements Statements in this presentation not based on historical facts are considered "forward-looking" and, accordingly, involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. Although such forward-looking s
Slide 3: Strategic and Business Update
Strategic and Business Update Marty Lyons Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ameren Corp. Ameren Missouri’s Montgomery Community Solar Energy Center
Slide 4: Our Strategic Plan
Our Strategic Plan INVEST ENHANCE OPTIMIZE Enhance regulatory Invest in rate regulated Optimize operating frameworks and advocate energy infrastructure performance for responsible policies To capitalize on opportunities to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment First Qu
Slide 5: Earnings and Guidance Summary
Earnings and Guidance Summary • Remain focused on safely executing strategic plan Diluted EPS • Key Q1 earnings variance drivers Q1 2023 vs. Q1 2024 ↑ New service rates at Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois Natural Gas $1.00 $0.98 ↑ Earnings on increased infrastructure investments ↑ Higher retail s
Slide 6: 2024 Strategic Business Objectives
2024 Strategic Business Objectives Invest • Robust infrastructure investment in electric, natural gas and transmission projects aligned with regulatory outcomes • Successfully complete new solar generation energy centers Enhance • Successfully conclude Ameren Illinois electric rehearing request • Ob
Slide 7: Executing Our Strategy
Executing Our Strategy Invest • $876 million of capital invested benefiting our customers and communities – Significant infrastructure investment in electric, natural gas and transmission Capital Expenditures infrastructure projects Q1 2024 Enhance ($ millions) • Achieved constructive regulatory out
Slide 8: Missouri Electric Regulatory Matters
Missouri Electric Regulatory Matters Securitization of Rush Island • On Nov. 21, 2023, filed for securitization of costs associated with the Rush Island Energy Center – Requested ~$519 million be securitized and recovered – Includes undepreciated plant, decommissioning costs, materials and supplies
Slide 9: Federal Regulatory Matters
Federal Regulatory Matters Rush Island New Source Review Proceedings • In Dec. 2021, Ameren Missouri announced its intention to accelerate the Rush Island Energy Center retirement, in lieu of installing a flue gas desulfurization scrubber system • In March 2024, the District Court1 ordered parties t
Slide 10: Ameren Missouri Solar Projects
Ameren Missouri Solar Projects Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment Huck Bowling Boomtown2,3 Split Rail Vandalia2 Cass County3 Finn1,2 Green2 Facility size 200-MW 150-MW 300-MW 50-MW 50-MW 150-MW Agreement Build- Bu
Slide 11: MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Roadmap
MISO Long-Range Transmission Planning Roadmap Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment • In Apr. 2024, ATXI was awarded third and final Tranche 1 competitive project – Denny-Zachary-Thomas Hill-Maywood project represent
Slide 12: Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade
Robust Investment Opportunities Across All Businesses Over Next Decade1 Modernizing the grid and investing in cleaner generation Investment Plan 2024-2028 $55B+ ($ billions) $21.9 Strong Pipeline of Regulated Infrastructure Investments $4.1 2024-2033 $1.8 • Modernize electric and gas transmission an
Slide 13: Long-term Total Return Outlook
Long-term Total Return Outlook Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, communities, shareholders and the environment • Remain on track to deliver strong long-term earnings growth – Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from 2024-20281 • Using 2024 EPS guidance range midpoint o
Slide 14: Financial Update
Financial Update Michael Moehn Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Ameren Corp.
Slide 15: 2024 First Quarter Earnings Analysis – Key Drivers
2024 First Quarter Earnings Analysis – Key Drivers ↓ Parent Company and Other results — Reduced tax benefits for share-based compensation: $(0.03) Diluted EPS2 ↓ Ameren Missouri earnings Q1 2023 vs. Q1 2024 — Higher operations and maintenance expenses 1: $(0.07) • Charge for proposed additional miti
Slide 16: 2024 EPS Guidance and Select Balance of the Year Considerations
2024 EPS Guidance and Select Balance of the Year Considerations • Affirm 2024 diluted EPS guidance range of $4.52 to $4.72 2024E • Select considerations for Q2-Q4 2024 EPS compared to Q2-Q4 2023 EPS Diluted EPS – Ameren Missouri new electric service rates effective July 9, 2023: Q2 ~+$0.03; Q3 ~+$0.
Slide 17: Illinois Regulatory Matters
Illinois Regulatory Matters Electric Distribution Reconciliation for 2023 • In Apr. 2024, requested $160 million reconciliation adjustment to the 2023 revenue requirement reflecting actual costs – Based on 2023 year-end rate base, ROE, and 50% equity ratio – Includes investments related to 2023 stor
Slide 18: Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027
Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027 Electric Distribution Rehearing1 • In Apr. 2024, Ameren Illinois requested a cumulative revenue increase from 2023 of ~$305 million – Includes 2023 rate base and base level of grid reliability investment AIC REHEARING REQUEST – Base level of grid reliabi
Slide 19: Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027, cont’d
Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027, cont’d Electric Distribution Revised MYRP AIC REVISED MYRP REQUEST • In Mar. 2024, Ameren Illinois filed revised Multi-Year Grid Plan and Multi-Year Rate Plan requesting a cumulative Key Components 2024 2025 2026 2027 revenue increase from 2023 of ~$321
Slide 20: Financing, Credit Ratings and External Debt Balances
Credit Ratings2 and Financing External Debt Balances Debt Financing • On Jan. 9, 2024, Ameren Missouri issued $350 million of 5.25% first mortgage bonds due 2054 As of Mar. 31, 2024 $ in millions Moody's S&P – Net proceeds were used to fund capital expenditures and/or Ameren Corporation (Issuer: Baa
Slide 21: Summary
Summary Expect to deliver strong earnings growth in 2024 with guidance in a range of $4.52 to $4.72 per diluted share1 Successfully executing our strategy; well-positioned for future growth • Focused on delivering a cleaner and sustainable energy future in a responsible manner Strong long-term growt
Slide 22: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 23: Our Sustainability Value Proposition
Our Sustainability Value Proposition ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP SOCIAL IMPACT • Responsibly transitioning to a cleaner and more diverse portfolio • Delivered value to customers in 2023 while focused on safety ‒ Target carbon reductions from 2005 levels: 60% by 2030; 85% by 2040; net ‒ Ameren-supplied
Slide 24: Four Regulatory Frameworks
Four Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated: Formula ratemaking Ameren • Allowed ROE is 10.52%, includes MISO participation adder of 50 basis points; ~56% average equity ratio Transmission • Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation ICC-regulated: Future t
Slide 25: Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027
Illinois Multi-Year Rate Plan for 2024 - 2027 Electric Distribution MYRP ICC Dec. Order • In Dec. 2023, ICC approved a cumulative revenue increase from 2023 of $142 million versus Ameren Illinois’ request of $444 million – ICC rejected Multi-Year Grid Plan and adopted alternative rate base and reven
Slide 26: Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan Performance Metrics
Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Multi-Year Rate Plan Performance Metrics Adjustment / Metric Description Incentive (+/- bps) Improve System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) systemwide; improve interruption and 1. Reliability duration outages (SAIDI, SAIFI, CEMI, and CELID) in enviro
Slide 27: Illinois Regulatory Matters
Illinois Regulatory Matters Natural Gas Distribution • On Nov. 16, 2023, ICC approved a $112 million annual base rate increase; includes $77 million that would otherwise be recovered in 2024 under riders – 2024 future test year – 9.44% allowed return on equity and 50% common equity ratio – $2.85 bil
Slide 28: Federal Energy Legislation
Federal Energy Legislation • Inflation Reduction Act enacted in Aug. 2022 – Enhances affordability of the clean energy transition for customers in Missouri and Illinois • Ameren Missouri customers expected to save ~$1.6 billion by 2033, as result of wind and solar tax credits1 • Ameren Illinois cust
Slide 29: Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan
Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with MoPSC on Feb. 23 Investing in rate regulated energy infrastructure to benefit our customers, shareholders and the environment • $1.7 billion invested in 2023 to support reliability, address aged infrastructure and provide clean energy to the customers and
Slide 30: Missouri Integrated Resource Plan
Missouri Integrated Resource Plan filed with MoPSC Sept. 2023 Least-cost approach to reliably meet customer energy needs in an environmentally responsible manner • Carbon emissions1: Targets substantial reductions; 60% by 2030, 85% by 2040 and net-zero by 2045 • Coal: All energy centers retired by 2
Slide 31: Investing in the Energy Grid
Investing in the Energy Grid • Investing to modernize energy grid, making it cleaner, safer, more reliable, resilient and secure – Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan filed with the MoPSC supporting infrastructure investment to 2023-2028E Regulated modernize the grid Infrastructure Rate Base – Expect
Slide 32: Focused on Disciplined Cost Management to Drive Affordability
Focused on Disciplined Cost Management to Drive Affordability Optimize operating performance to benefit our customers, shareholders and the environment • Track record of disciplined cost management – Target flat operations and maintenance expenses through 2028 • Maintaining focus on continuous impro
Slide 33: Long-Term Debt Maturities and Interest Rates
Long-Term Debt Maturities and Interest Rates Issuer 20241 2025 2026 2027 2028 $350 million 3.65% senior unsecured notes $450 million 2.50% $500 million 1.95% $450 million 1.75% Ameren Corp. senior unsecured notes senior unsecured notes senior unsecured notes $600 million 5.70% senior unsecured notes
Slide 34: Ameren’s Estimated Coal-Related Revenues in 2023
Ameren’s Estimated Coal-Related Revenues in 2023 Return on Investment Revenues Cost Recovery3 Revenues $1.97B1 x $1.97B1 x ($98M x $466M + 51.9%2 x 48.1% x 25%) / (1 $171M x $131M + 9.59%2 = 3.93% = - 25%) 17%1 = $265M = $98M $37M $33M $29M $862M $7,500M 14% Return on Interest Tax Expense Property F
Slide 35: GAAP to Core Earnings Per Share Reconciliations
GAAP to Core Earnings Per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $1.18 $2.40 $2.59 $2.68 $2.14 $3.32 $3.35 $3.50 $3.84 $4.14 $4.38 Exclude results from discontinued operations 0.87 — (0.01) — — — — — — — — Less: In
Slide 36: Weather-Normalized Earnings per Share Reconciliations
Weather-Normalized Earnings per Share Reconciliations Year Ended Dec. 31, 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Core1 Diluted EPS $2.10 $2.40 $2.56 $2.68 $2.83 $3.37 $3.35 $3.50 $3.84 $4.14 $4.38 Ameren Missouri weather impact 0.03 0.05 (0.04) 0.16 (0.07) 0.43 0.04 (0.05) 0.02 0.19
Slide 37: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar MAY 2024 JUNE 2024 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. `1 2 3 4 1 Q1 2024 Earnings Call 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Annual Share- holder Meeting 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 AGA
Slide 38: Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters
Select Regulatory and Legislative Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • Right of First Refusal bill (HB1449 and SB805): https://house.mo.gov/ and https://www.senate.mo.gov/ • Power Predictability and Reliability Act bill (HB1746 and SB 740/1422): https://house.mo.gov/ and https://www.senate.m
Slide 39: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois ITC – Investment Tax Credit AFUDC – Allowance for Funds Used During Construction LRTP – Long Range Transmission Planning B – Billion LT – Long-term bps – Basis points M – Million CAGR – Compound annual growth rate MEE