Vistra Corp. · NYSE:VST
Vistra — Q2 2024 Earnings Presentation
34 slides from Vistra's earnings presentation, Aug 8, 2024
Slide 1: Second Quarter 2024 Results
Second Quarter 2024 Results August 8, 2024 1
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda Welcome and Safe Harbor Eric Micek, Vice President of Investor Relations Q2 2024 Highlights Jim Burke, President & Chief Executive Officer Q2 2024 Finance Update Kris Moldovan, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 3 Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
Slide 4: Q2 2024 Highlights
Q2 2024 Highlights Jim Burke President & Chief Executive Officer 4 Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
Slide 5: Q2 2024 At A Glance
Q2 2024 At A Glance DELIVERED CONFIRMING RAISING $1,414M $4.55-$5.05B $5.2-$5.7B Adjusted EBITDA1 2024 Adj. EBITDA guidance range2 2025 midpoint opportunity range3 Record generation Confident in our ability Hedging strategy and in Q2 and strong to be towards PJM Auction driving higher retail perform
Slide 6: Continued Execution Against Our Four Strategic Priorities
Continued Execution Against Our Four Strategic Priorities Integrated Disciplined Resilient Strategic Business Model Capital Allocation Balance Sheet Energy Transition Strong results despite low Consistent execution of capital Current net leverage of 3x and Signed two renewable PPAs – cleared power p
Slide 7: ERCOT / PJM May See Supply Gaps as We Approach 2030
ERCOT / PJM May See Supply Gaps as We Approach 2030 Policy-driven retirements and demand growth will highlight the value of existing reliable generation PJM Supply / Demand 2024-20301 ERCOT Supply / Demand 2024-20302 Peak Load (GW) Peak Load (GW) 1 1 1 1 1 ~40 GW 11 ~40 GW 1 Potential 1 Potential Su
Slide 8: Q2 2024 Finance Update
Q2 2024 Finance Update Kris Moldovan Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer 8 Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
Slide 9: Q2 2024 Results
Q2 2024 Results Resiliency of the integrated model drives strong second quarter results despite mild weather in Texas Q2 2024 Financial Results Generation2 Adjusted EBITDA1,2 ($ in millions) Q2 2024 is $115 million favorable as compared to Q2 2023, primarily driven by: , +43% • Favorable commercial
Slide 10: Confirming Our Long-Term Outlook
Confirming Our Long-Term Outlook Long-term earnings profile intact despite recent movement in forward prices Forward Power Price Curves Long-Term Earnings Outlook Partial Drivers of Outlook Around-the-Clock (“ATC”)1 ($/MWh) Adjusted EBITDA2 ($ in millions) Texas ATC Prices • Comprehensive Hedging Pr
Slide 11: Capital Allocation Update
Capital Allocation Update1 Balanced approach to shareholder return, financial leverage, and growth • Expect to utilize at least $2.25 billion for share repurchases over 2024 and 2025, and target $300 million in dividends annually • Executed ~$4.25 billion in share repurchases from Nov. 2021 through
Slide 12: Appendix
Appendix 12 Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
Slide 13: Corporate Debt Profile
Corporate Debt Profile Vistra remains committed to a long-term net leverage target below 3x1 Balances ($ in millions) Q2 2024 Funded Revolving Credit Facilities $0 Vistra Operations Term Loan B 2,488 Senior Secured Notes 5,049 Senior Unsecured Notes 7,300 2 Revenue Bond Obligations 431 Accounts Rece
Slide 14: Select Debt Balances
Select Debt Balances Principal outstanding for secured and unsecured debt issued from Vistra Operations Vistra Operations Secured Debt ($ in millions) Q2 2024 Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2030 $2,488 3.550% Senior Secured Notes due July 2024 1,155 5.125% Senior Secured Notes due May 202
Slide 15: Retail Overview
Retail Overview Continued delivery of strong margin and count performance driving consistent EBITDA performance Highlights • Grew residential customer count organically in the quarter and year-over-year • Total residential count on June 30, 2024 reached 2,764k, +15% YoY driven by organic growth, the
Slide 16: Comprehensive Hedging Program Overview
Comprehensive Hedging Program Overview Effective June 30, 2024 2024 2025 Texas West East Sunset Total Texas West East Sunset Total Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 26 17 15 58 49 32 26 107 1 % Hedged 100% 62% 98% 88% 99% 47% 81% 79% Sensitivity to Power Price: + $2.50/mw
Slide 17: Capacity Positions
Capacity Positions Effective July 31, 2024 Tenor Zone Position (MW) Average Price ($/MW-day) Tenor Zone Position (MW) Avg. Price ($/KW-mo) East East 2024/2025 PJM - RTO 5,075 $34.39 Summer 2024 NYISO 962 $3.90 2024/2025 PJM - ComEd 1,373 $32.45 Winter 24/25 NYISO 777 $3.36 2024/2025 PJM - DEOK 100 $
Slide 18: Forward Market Pricing
Forward Market Pricing Effective June 30, 2024 2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 Power (ATC, $/MWh) Spark Spreads (ATC, $/MWh) ERCOT North Hub $61.36 $54.49 $52.34 ERCOT West Hub $66.26 $58.62 $56.20 Texas cont. PJM AD Hub $40.87 $43.04 $45.04 ERCOT North Hub-Houston Ship Channel 90% $41.24 $28.65 $24.1
Slide 19: Generation Metrics
Generation Metrics Effective June 30, 2024 Total Generation (TWh) Q2 2023 Q2 2024 YTD 2023 YTD 2024 CCGT Capacity Factor (%) Q2 2023 Q2 2024 YTD 2023 YTD 2024 Texas 21.1 21.2 38 39.3 Texas 59% 59% 47% 52% East 13.8 19.8 28.5 36.9 East 57% 50% 60% 56% West 0.7 0.7 2.3 1.9 West 33% 31% 51% 43% Sunset
Slide 20: Asset Fleet Details
Asset Fleet Details Effective June 30, 2024 Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW) Ennis Ennis, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 366 Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 Hays San Marcos, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,047 Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,076 Midlothian Midlothian, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,
Slide 21: Asset Fleet Details
Asset Fleet Details Effective June 30, 2024 Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel Net Capacity (MW) Independence Oswego, NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1,212 Bellingham Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566 Blackstone Blackstone, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 544 Casco Bay Veazie, ME ISO-NE CCGT Gas 543 Lake Road Dayvill
Slide 22: Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures1 Category ($ in millions) 2023A 2024E 2025E Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance2,3 $730 $822 ~$850 Nuclear Fuel 206 302 ~325 Non-Recurring4 8 - - 5 Solar & Energy Storage Development 550 682 ~675 Other Growth6 120 233 ~130 Total Capital Expenditures $1,614 $2,039 $1,980 Non-Recurring4
Slide 23: Vistra Zero Portfolio and Development Pipeline
Vistra Zero Portfolio and Development Pipeline Effective June 30, 2024 Online Assets Location ISO In-Service Year Net Capacity (MW) Development Pipeline Location ISO Status, In-Service Year Net Capacity (MW) Beaver Valley I & II Shippingport, PA PJM 1976 / 1987 1,872 Baldwin Baldwin, IL MISO In Cons
Slide 24: Sustainability Goals
Sustainability Goals 24 Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
Slide 25: Environmental Stewardship
Environmental Stewardship Vistra’s GHG targets emphasize an energy transition that balances reliability and affordability of power EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS1 PORTFOLIO TRANSFORMATION2 Scope 1 and Scope 2 Emissions SO2 Emissions ~15,150 MW Zero Carbon Capacity MW (Million mtCO2e) (‘ s mt) fossil generatio
Slide 26: Social Responsibility & Governance
Social Responsibility & Governance Vistra’s Purpose: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES GOVERNANCE Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion • Oversight of Vistra’s ESG initiatives is governed by the full Vistra board, with oversight of subject matter-specific components
Slide 27: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations 27 Q2 2024 Investor Presentation
Slide 28: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations Three Months Ended June 30, 2024 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $897 $(591) $410 $113 $126 $(463) $492 $(25) $467 Income ta
Slide 29: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations Six Months Ended June 30, 2024 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $1,458 $(922) $225 $277 $133 $(640) $531 $(46) $485 Income ta
Slide 30: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations Three Months Ended June 30, 2023 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $812 $(626) $275 $164 $62 $(278) $409 $67 $476 Income tax e
Slide 31: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations Six Months Ended June 30, 2023 (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Eliminations / Ongoing Corp and Operations Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Other Consolidated Asset Closure Consolidated Net income (loss) $217 $(42) $1,020 $216 $486 $(763) $1,134 $40 $1,174 Income t
Slide 32: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations 2024 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) $2,030 $2,430 $(90) $(90) $1,940 $2,340 Income tax expense 550 650 0 0 550 650 Interest expense and related charges (a) 980
Slide 33: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations 2024 Guidance (Unaudited, Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Operations Asset Closure Vistra Corp. Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Cash provided by operating activities $4,185 $4,685 $(202) $(202) $3,983 $4,483 Capital expenditures including nuclear fuel purchases and LTSA
Slide 34: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward
Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward 34