Pge Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.a. · GPW:PGE

Pge Polska Grupa Energetyczna — Q3 2012 Earnings Presentation

32 slides from Pge Polska Grupa Energetyczna's earnings presentation, Nov 14, 2012

  1. Slide 1: Q3 2012 Financial Results

    PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. Q3 2012 Financial Results Consolidated data, in accordance with IFRS November 14, 2012

  2. Slide 2: Q3 2012 – key information

    Q3 2012 – key information Key financials Key operating data • Revenues reached PLN 6.9 bn • Net generation volume down by 4% y-o-y to 13.7 TWh • EBITDA up by 6% y-o-y to PLN 2.0 bn • Distribution volume up by 1% y-o-y to 7.7 TWh • Recurring EBITDA up by 8% y-o-y to PLN 1.9 bn • Sales to end customer

  3. Slide 3: Our key short and medium term priorities

    Our key short and medium term priorities To Complete Internal Consolidation To Advance Cost Cutting and Efficiency Projects • We are taking next step in restructuring by building a new • Implementation of a new operating model will influence the operational model performance by focusing on efficienc

  4. Slide 4: Energy business environment – key data

    Energy business environment – key data Hard coal [USD/t]* CO2 Allowance [EUR/t]** EUA CER 124.79 123.87 115.21 15.68 100.65 12.41 91.29 12.1 90.76 9.13 8.91 7.87 6.85 5.95 6.32 5.09 4.86 4.09 -26% -51% -44% Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q2’ Q3’ Q4’ Q1’ Q2’ Q3’ Q2’ Q3’ EUA Q4’ [EUR/

  5. Slide 5: Key Operating Data (I)

    Key Operating Data (I) Key Operating Data Poland Q1 – Q3 2011 Q1 – Q3 2012 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Real GDP growth y-o-y [%]1 - - 4.1 2.0 Industrial production growth y-o-y [%]2 6.1 -0.1 CPI y-o-y [%]2 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.9 Domestic Electricity Consumption Growth y-o-y [%]3 2.4 -0.2 2.2 -1.1 Domestic Electricity

  6. Slide 6: Key Operating Data (II)

    Key Operating Data (II) Net electricity generation by sources (TWh) Q1 – Q3 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 – Q3 2011 Q1 – Q3 2012 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 vs. Q1 –Q3 2011 vs. Q3 2011 Lignite-fired power plants 28.23 30.65 9% 10.16 9.94 -2% Hard coal-fired power plants 10.12 8.84 -13% 3.22 2.70 -16% Coal-fired CHPs 0.98 0.9

  7. Slide 7: Key Financials

    Key Financials Selected financial data, consolidated, IFRS Q1-Q3 Q1-Q3 Q1-Q3 2012 Q3 2011 Q3 2012 Q3 2012 2011 2012 vs. vs. PLNm PLNm Q1-Q3 2011 PLNm PLNm Q3 2011 not audited not audited not audited not audited *Recurring = excluding key one-off items Sales 20 861 21 897 5% 6 946 6 946 0% (Q1-Q3 201

  8. Slide 8: Q3 2012 Financial results – key drivers

    Q3 2012 Financial results – key drivers 6946 6946 6754 6910 • Recurring sales revenues went up by 2% y-o-y or PLN 155.5m 4840 4730 • Higher volume and tariffs in distribution contributed to the growth while generation revenues relatively flat (much lower base effect related to launch of Revenues Rec

  9. Slide 9: Recurring Q3 2012 EBITDA Composition and Development

    Recurring* Q3 2012 EBITDA Composition and Development 38.0 39.2 3.7 1 866.1 488.4 59.0 132.1 1 105.7 Energetyka Conventional Energetyka Renewables Obrót Hurtowy Wholesale Distribution Sprzedaż Retail Dystrybucja Detaliczna Działalność Other Korekty Adjust. EBITDA EBITDA Konwencjonalna Odnawialna Poz

  10. Slide 10: Investment programme – key projects

    Investment programme – key projects Identified investment projects Commi- Project Capacity Goals CAPEX ssioning Status date  Contract with General Contractor concluded in Feb. 2012 2017  The verdict of the Provincial Administrative Court in Warsaw Opole  Increased installed capacity PLN (U 5) reg

  11. Slide 11: Debt Position – plenty of headroom in the balance sheet

    Debt Position – plenty of headroom in the balance sheet FY 2011 9M 2012 Gross Debt (PLNm) 2,039.1 1,632.5 Net Cash (PLNm) 4,128.5 2,812.2 Net Debt/LTM EBITDA - 0.60 x -0.37x Net Debt/Equity - 0.10 x -0.07x Financial Strength Confirmed by Rating Agencies Fitch Ratings BBB+ Stable (Issuer) affirmed on

  12. Slide 12: THANK YOU

    THANK YOU Investor Relations Contacts: ir@gkpge.pl Head of IR IR Officer IR Officer IR Officer IR Officer Przemek Wasilewski Krzysztof Dragan Agata Milewska Jakub Frejlich Karolina Drach-Kowalczyk Tel: (+48 22) 340 19 46 Tel: (+48 22) 340 15 13 Tel: (+48 22) 340 10 35 Tel: (+48 22) 340 10 32 Tel: (+

  13. Slide 13: BACK-UP SLIDES

    BACK-UP SLIDES

  14. Slide 14: Conventional Generation – EBIT

    Conventional Generation – EBIT Key Changes in EBIT [PLNm] 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 200 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Cost of Sale of Sale of Revenues Revenues merchandise Result on Result electricity – electricity – from regul. Other Electricity Cost Cost Other Result from cert. of and other oper.

  15. Slide 15: Renewable Generation - EBIT

    Renewable Generation - EBIT Key Changes in EBIT [PLNm] 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Sale Sale Revenues Revenues Result Result of electricity – of electricity – Other Energy Operating Result from regul. serv. from cert. of on other oper. Q3 2011 difference in difference in revenue

  16. Slide 16: Wholesale – EBIT

    Wholesale – EBIT Key Changes in EBIT [PLNm] 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Revenues Revenues General and Result Sale Management Other Cost of products Selling Result on other Result from cert. of from CO2 administrative Q3 2011 of electricity service revenues and services expenses oper. Activities Q3 2012

  17. Slide 17: Distribution – EBIT

    Distribution – EBIT Key Changes in EBIT [PLNm] 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Wykonanie 2011 Przychody z tyt. usługi dystrybucyjnej - odchylenie z tytułu ilości Przychody z usł. dyst. - odchylenie z tytułu ceny Pozostałe przychody z usługi dystrybucyjnej Pozostałe przychody Zużycie energii Usługi przesyło

  18. Slide 18: Retail – EBIT

    Retail – EBIT Key Changes in EBIT [PLNm] 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 -10 -20 Costs of Result Result Change in result on Other Cost of merchandise Operating Result certificates of on other Q3 2011 electricity sales revenues and materials sold expenses Q3 2012 origin oper. activities Change

  19. Slide 19: Detailed segmental revenues and costs

    Detailed segmental revenues and costs Conventional Generation Q1-Q3 2012 Q3 2012 Q1-Q3 2011 Q1-Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2011 Q3 2012 vs. Q1-Q3 2011 Q3 2011 Sales, including: 10080.5 10391.5 3% 3365.7 3185.3 -5% sale of electricity 8574.6 9071.0 6% 2915.5 2868.9 -2% LTC compensations 494.6 143.7 -71% 191.4 36.

  20. Slide 20: Detailed segmental revenues and costs

    Detailed segmental revenues and costs Renewables Q1-Q3 2012 Q3 2012 Q1-Q3 2011 Q1-Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2011 Q3 2012 vs. Q1-Q3 2011 Q3 2011 Sales, including: 414.4 423.4 2% 141.7 136.0 -4% sale of electricity 159.8 153.3 -4% 54.5 44.5 -18% sale of certificates of origin 86.3 93.8 9% 30.4 26.6 -13% Cost by

  21. Slide 21: Detailed segmental revenues and costs

    Detailed segmental revenues and costs Wholesale Q1-Q3 2012 Q3 2012 Q1-Q3 2011 Q1-Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2011 Q3 2012 vs. Q1-Q3 2011 Q3 2011 Sales, including: 7590.9 7652.1 1% 2517.5 2513.7 0% sale of electricity 5768.7 6149.3 7% 1954.1 2000.1 2% sale of certificates of origin 895.3 893.0 0% 220.1 215.5 -2%

  22. Slide 22: Detailed segmental revenues and costs

    Detailed segmental revenues and costs Distribution Q1-Q3 2012 Q3 2012 Q1-Q3 2011 Q1-Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2011 Q3 2012 vs. Q1-Q3 2011 Q3 2011 Sales, including: 3871.5 4104.2 6% 1259.4 1340.6 6% revenues from distribution services 3603.3 3832.3 6% 1171.4 1248.9 7% other operating revenues 173.2 178.2 3% 57.

  23. Slide 23: Detailed segmental revenues and costs

    Detailed segmental revenues and costs Retail Q1-Q3 2012 Q3 2012 Q1-Q3 2011 Q1-Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2011 Q3 2012 vs. Q1-Q3 2011 Q3 2011 Sales, including: 9256.3 9409.6 2% 3028.9 3010.7 -1% sale of electricity 6018.2 6210.7 3% 1994.8 1988.0 0% revenues from distribution services 3179.3 3142.5 -1% 1012.7 100

  24. Slide 24: Capital expenditures

    Capital expenditures CAPEX for Q3 and 9M (PLN m) Q1-Q3 2012 Q3 2012 Segment Q1-Q3 2011 Q1-Q3 2012 vs. Q3 2011 Q3 2012 vs. Q1-Q3 2011 Q3 2011 Conventional Generation 1 906.1 1 874.5 -2% 746.1 848.2 14%  modernization of units 7-12 in Bełchatów 120.6 758.4 529% 72.0 353.1 390% Distribution 715 824.3

  25. Slide 25: Q3 2012 Key business flows

    Q3 2012 Key business flows Key business flows (illustrative only) Generation Wholesale Households 13.68 TWh 14.66 TWh Regulated market 2.17 TWh 14.21 TWh (Q3 2011) 14.10 TWh (Q3 2011) 2.14 TWh (Q3 2011) Electricity from power plants Power exchange Retail 28% (under „exchange obligation”) Electricity

  26. Slide 26: LTC compensations – an update

    LTC compensations – an update Generators from the PGE Capital Group are in disputes with the ERO President regarding stranded cost compensations in years 2008-2011. Current status of 2008 cases Current status of 2009 cases • In case of CHP Lublin-Wrotków the Court of Appeal • CCCP issued verdicts in

  27. Slide 27: Key one-off items – Q3 2012

    Key one-off items – Q3 2012 Reversal of Alpiq (previously Atel) provision Further Provison for Voluntary Leave Programme  Description Since 2009 PGE was a party to arbitration proceedings with  Description the company Alpiq. The subject of the arbitration proceeding The purpose of the Voluntary Le

  28. Slide 28: CO2 allowances in PGE books

    CO2 allowances in PGE books Free EUA recognized at a fair value (BlueNext spot price from day of Free EUA are recognized in deferred income in the beginning of recognition) – note 14 of the 9M 2012 consolidated FS the reporting period (9M 2012) and are settled pro rata in P&L – note 18 1/4 Other def

  29. Slide 29: Calendar of events

    Calendar of events Meet us at the roadshows and conferences in 2012 Date Event Location Hosted by November 26-27 Investor Conference London Goldman Sachs November 27-28 CEE Conference Warsaw ING 29

  30. Slide 30: Sell-side analysts covering PGE

    Sell-side analysts covering PGE Domestic analysts Foreign analysts Institution Analyst Institution Analyst BRE Bank Kamil Kliszcz Bank of America Merill Lynch Evgeny Olkhovich BZ WBK Paweł Puchalski Erste Group Petr Bartek DM BOŚ Michał Stalmach Goldman Sachs Fred Barasi Citigroup Piotr Zielonka HSB

  31. Slide 31: Disclaimer

    Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by the management of PGE Polska Grupa Energetyczna S.A. (the “Company” or “PGE”) and other entities and is furnished on a confidential basis only for the exclusive use of the intended recipient and only for discussion purposes. This document has been pr

  32. Slide 32: THANK YOU

    THANK YOU Investor Relations Contacts: ir@gkpge.pl Head of IR IR Officer IR Officer IR Officer IR Officer Przemek Wasilewski Krzysztof Dragan Agata Milewska Jakub Frejlich Karolina Drach-Kowalczyk Tel: (+48 22) 340 19 46 Tel: (+48 22) 340 15 13 Tel: (+48 22) 340 10 35 Tel: (+48 22) 340 10 32 Tel: (+

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