Ameren Corporation · NYSE:AEE
Ameren — EEI Financial Conference 2016
35 slides from Ameren's conference presentation, Nov 7, 2016
Slide 1: Making an Impact
Making anImpact November 2016 Investor Meetings
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented core earnings, which is a non-GAAP measure and may not be comparable to those of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results is included either on the slide where the non-GAAP measur
Slide 3: Overview
Overview
Slide 4: Company Description
Company Description Fully rate-regulated electric and gas utility • 2.4 million electric and 0.9 million gas customers • 10,200 MW of regulated electric generation capability • 4,600 circuit miles of FERC-regulated electric transmission Ameren Corporation Ameren Missouri Ameren Illinois Electric Tra
Slide 5: Our Value Proposition to Investors
Our Value Proposition to Investors Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect ~6.5% compound annual rate base growth from 2015 through 2020 1 – Sustainable infrastructure investment pipeline • Expect 5% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2016 through 20201 – Based on Feb. 2016 adjusted 2016 EPS gui
Slide 6: Solid Operating Performance
Solid Operating Performance # Delivery system reliability Generating plant Electric rates are low Safety has improved has improved performance remains strong Average Residential Electricity Prices1 Safety Performance 30 600 150 Lost Workday Recordable Cases 25 ¢/KWh BETTER 20 400 100 BETTER Cases 15
Slide 7: Our Strategic Plan
Our Strategic Plan • Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks • Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy policies • Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers and s
Slide 8: Our Regulatory Frameworks
Our Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated electric transmission service • Formula ratemaking; nearly eliminates regulatory lag – Allowed base ROE is 10.32% with up to 50 basis points adder for MISO participation – Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation
Slide 9: Investing Strategically, Consistent with Regulatory Frameworks
Investing Strategically, Consistent with Regulatory Frameworks1 $11.1 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure 2015 to 2020E Regulated 5-Yr Rate Investment 2016-2020 Infrastructure Rate Base2 Base CAGR % of $16.7 Total ~6.5% Ameren Ameren $3.5 Illinois Illinois $12.1 Electric Transmission 53% 20% $2.0 B
Slide 10: Investing Strategically, with Focus on Transmission and Distribution
Investing Strategically, with Focus on Transmission and Distribution • We will continue to be strategic and disciplined in our 2015 to 2020E Regulated investment approach Infrastructure Rate Base1 • Investing to modernize the grid to make it smarter and 100% 100% to meet our customers’ future energy
Slide 11: 2016-2020 Capital Expenditure Funding Plan
2016-2020 Capital Expenditure Funding Plan1 • Return of capital through depreciation in rates • Retained earnings • ~$2.5-$2.6 billion of income tax deferrals and assets – Income tax deferrals driven primarily by capital expenditures • ~$930 million due to extension of bonus tax depreciation – Inclu
Slide 12: Our Value Proposition to Investors
Our Value Proposition to Investors Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect ~6.5% compound annual rate base growth from 2015 through 2020 1 – Sustainable infrastructure investment pipeline • Expect 5% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2016 through 20201 – Based on Feb. 2016 adjusted 2016 EPS gui
Slide 13: Business Update
Business Update
Slide 14: Select Pending Regulatory Matters
Select Pending Regulatory Matters Missouri electric service • $206 million annual electric revenue increase request filed July 1 with MoPSC – Includes recovery of, and return on, new infrastructure investments – Removes prospectively the negative earnings effects of lower sales to New Madrid smelter
Slide 15: Business Update
Business Update Our strategic plan Capital • Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory Expenditures frameworks YTD Sept 30 • Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy policies • Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for
Slide 16: Business Update, cont’d
Business Update, cont’d Ameren Illinois Executing our plan, cont’d AMI Plan • Illinois electric and natural gas distribution Through 2019 (in thousands of meters – Invested ~$480 million in distribution infrastructure projects in the first nine and modules) months of 2016 • Investments in smart elec
Slide 17: Business Update, cont’d
Business Update, cont’d Executing our plan, cont’d • Missouri electric service – $206 million annual electric revenue increase request pending – Efforts to enhance Missouri regulatory framework continue • MoPSC - opened case to consider policies to improve way it regulates electric utilities – Amere
Slide 18: Creating and Capitalizing on Opportunities beyond 2020
Creating and Capitalizing on Opportunities beyond 2020 Illinois Electric and Natural Gas Delivery • System modernization projects including replacement of aging substations and electric distribution and gas distribution infrastructure, including expected new federal safety regulations for gas system
Slide 19: Financial Update
Financial Update
Slide 20: Earnings Analysis for Third Quarter
Earnings Analysis for Third Quarter Diluted EPS Key Earnings Variance Drivers Q3 2015 vs. Q3 2016 Warmer summer temperatures: ~+$0.11 – ~+$0.10 vs. normal temperatures $1.52 $1.41 Increased electric transmission and distribution service infrastructure investments by ATXI and Ameren Illinois, inc
Slide 21: Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sept. 30
Earnings Analysis for Nine Months Ended Sept. 30 Key Core Earnings Variance Drivers Core Diluted EPS1 Increased electric transmission and distribution infrastructure investments YTD 2015 vs. YTD 2016 by ATXI and Ameren Illinois, including changes in allowed ROEs: +$0.17 Higher Illinois natural g
Slide 22: GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliation
GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliation (In millions, except per share amounts) Nine Months Ended Sept. 30, 2015 2016 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $ 601 $ 2.47 $ 621 $ 2.56 Results from discontinued operations Operating income before income tax (3) (0.01) — — Income tax benefit (49) (0.20) — — Income fr
Slide 23: 2016 EPS Guidance: Select Balance of Year Considerations
2016 EPS Guidance: Select Balance of Year Considerations Q4 2016E compared to Q4 2015: 2016E Diluted EPS Return to normal temperatures: ~+$0.08 $2.75 Increased electric transmission and distribution service infrastructure investments by ATXI and Ameren Illinois partially offset by lower Illinois
Slide 24: Select 2017 Earnings Considerations
Select 2017 Earnings Considerations Higher average estimated rate base: ~$2.51 billion compared to estimated ~$2.11 billion in 2016 FERC-Regulated reflecting infrastructure investments made under formula ratemaking Electric Transmission • Expect lower projected weighted average allowed ROE vs. 201
Slide 25: Strong Liquidity and Manageable Maturities
Strong Liquidity and Manageable Maturities • Strong Liquidity Profile Long-term Debt Maturities Outlook1 – $2.1 billion of combined credit facilities maturing in Dec. 2019 – Three commercial paper programs supported by credit facilities - $1.2 ($s in Millions) billion at Ameren Corp., $800 million a
Slide 26: Debt Outstanding and Credit Ratings (Moody’s/S&P)
Debt Outstanding and Credit Ratings (Moody’s/S&P) ($ in millions as of Sept. 30, 2016) Ameren Corporation (Baa1/BBB+) Sr. unsecured (Baa1/BBB) - $7001 Commercial paper (P-2/A-2) - $451 Ameren Missouri Ameren Illinois Ameren Transmission (Baa1/BBB+) Ameren Services (A3/BBB+) Company of Illinois Compa
Slide 27: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 28: Significant FERC-Regulated Transmission Investment
Significant FERC-Regulated Transmission Investment Planned $3.0 billion investment – 2016-20201 • $1.0 billion of regional multi-value projects at ATXI Regional • $2.0 billion of local reliability and connecting portions of regional multi- Multi-Value Projects value projects at Ameren Illinois Total
Slide 29: Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing
Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing • $206 million annual electric revenue increase request filed July 1, 2016 with MoPSC, which would result in an average 7.8% increase in base PROCEDURAL SCHEDULE rates KEY DATES: – ROE: 9.9% vs. 9.53% in April 2015 order – Equity ratio: 51.8% (Dec. 31,
Slide 30: Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing, cont’d
Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing, cont’d • Key drivers of requested $206 million annual revenue increase – New electric infrastructure investments: +$74 million • Depreciation: $39 million; return on rate base: $25 million; and property taxes1: $10 million – Reduced customer sales, le
Slide 31: Pending 2016 Illinois Electric Formula Rate Update
Pending 2016 Illinois Electric Formula Rate Update • $14 million net revenue requirement decrease filed in April 2016 with ICC in required annual formula rate update consisting of: RATE UPDATE SCHEDULE KEY DATES: – $96 million increase, including interest, for 2015 revenue requirement reconciliation
Slide 32: FERC MISO Complaint Cases Regarding MISO base ROE
FERC MISO Complaint Cases Regarding MISO base ROE • Cases sought to reduce Ameren Illinois’ and ATXI’s transmission service allowed base ROE – In first case, FERC final order issued Sept. 28, 2016 confirmed ALJ initial recommendation of a 10.32% base ROE • Maximum ROE including incentives not to exc
Slide 33: Select Regulatory Matters
Select Regulatory Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • 2016 electric rate case: Docket No. ER-2016-0179 • Order granting CCN for ATXI’s Mark Twain transmission project: Docket No. EA-2015-0146 • Working case to consider policies to improve electric utility regulation: Docket No. EW-2016-0313
Slide 34: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar NOVEMBER 2016 DECEMBER 2016 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 Q3 Quiet Q3 Period, Earnings cont. Call 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 EEI Conf. EEI Conf. 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Mizuho Barclays Conf
Slide 35: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations ALJ – Administrative Law Judge. GAAP – Generally Accepted Accounting Principles. AMI – Automated Meter Infrastructure. ICC – Illinois Commerce Commission. ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois. M – Million. B – Billion. MISO – Midcontinent Independent Sys