Vistra Corp. · NYSE:VST
Vistra — Q4 2023 Earnings Presentation
44 slides from Vistra's earnings presentation, Feb 28, 2024
Slide 1: Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2023 Results
Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2023 Results RESULTS Feb. 28, 2024
Slide 2: Safe Harbor Statements
Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, esti
Slide 3: Agenda
Agenda I. Welcome and Safe Harbor Eric Micek, Vice President of Investor Relations II. 2023 Highlights Jim Burke, President & Chief Executive Officer III. 2023 Finance Update Kris Moldovan, Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer Vistra Investor Presentation / Q4 and Full-Year Results 202
Slide 4: 2023 Highlights
2023 Highlights Jim Burke President & Chief Executive Officer VISTRA CORP. 04 4
Slide 5: Continued Execution Against our Four Strategic Priorities
Continued Execution Against our Four Strategic Priorities Long-Term, Attractive Earnings Significant and Consistent Profile through the Integrated Shareholder Return of Capital Business Model Strong operational performance in 2023 drove financial Consistent execution of capital return program with ~
Slide 6: Energy Harbor Update
Energy Harbor Update TRANSACTION Announced March 6, 2023 RECAP Will combine Energy Harbor’s nuclear (~4 GW) and retail businesses (~1 million customers) with Vistra’s nuclear Pre-Tax Run-Rate Synergies1 (~2.4 GW) and retail businesses (~3.5 million customers) and certain Vistra Zero renewables and s
Slide 7: 2023 Results and 2024 Expectations
2023 Results and 2024 Expectations 2023 Financial Results Reaffirming 2024 Vistra Standalone Guidance Ongoing Operations ($ millions) Ongoing Operations ($ millions) Adj. EBITDA1 $4,140 Adj. EBITDA1 $3,700 - $4,100 Adj. FCFbG1 $2,491 Adj. FCFbG1 $1,900 - $2,300 Guidance Recap 2023 Highlights • Raise
Slide 8: 2023 Finance Update
2023 Finance Update Kris Moldovan Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer VISTRA CORP. 04 8
Slide 9: Q4 and Full-Year 2023 Financial Results
Q4 and Full-Year 2023 Financial Results Generation and Retail each out-performed year-over-year in the fourth quarter and full-year 2023 Ongoing Operations Adj. EBITDA1 Generation2,3 ($ millions) FY 2023 is $839 million favorable as compared to FY 2022, primarily $3,700- driven by: $4,140 $4,100 ✓ E
Slide 10: Capital Allocation Update
Capital Allocation Update1 • Executed ~$3.7 billion from Nov. 2021 through Feb. 23, 2024 Share • Board approved $1.5 billion additional repurchase authorization; $2.25 billion expected to be utilized over Repurchase 2024 and 2025 Program • Share count of ~348 million as of Feb. 23, 2024; ~28% reduct
Slide 11: Market Curves and Hedge Position Update
Market Curves and Hedge Position Update Vistra’s comprehensive hedging program results in a more stable earnings profile and provides opportunities to lock-in significant gross margin Vistra Standalone Expected generation is ~93% hedged for 2024 – 20251 ✓ 2024 ~99% hedged (balance of the year) ✓ 202
Slide 12: Appendix
VICTPA aw bw = Appendix
Slide 13: Corporate Debt Profile
Corporate Debt Profile A strong balance sheet is core to Vistra’s strategy. Accordingly, Vistra remains committed to a long-term net leverage target (excluding any non-recourse debt at Vistra Zero) of less than 3x ($ millions) Q4 2023 1 Funded Revolving Credit Facility and Commodity Linked RCF $0 Te
Slide 14: Select Debt Balances
Select Debt Balances Funded Debt Tranches As of Dec. 31, 20231 ($ millions) Issuer Series Principal Outstanding Secured Debt Vistra Operations Senior Secured Term Loan B-3 due December 2030 $2,500 Vistra Operations 4.875% Senior Secured Notes due May 2024 342 Vistra Operations 3.550% Senior Secured
Slide 15: Q4 2023 Retail Metrics
Q4 2023 Retail Metrics Highlights Retail Volume All markets (electric volumes in TWh) ✓ Grew residential customer counts in the quarter and year-over-year 22.7 21.2 ✓ Large business markets sales performance well ahead of 1.5 1.7 expectations in all regions ✓ Our TXU Energy brand held a 5-star PUCT
Slide 16: Q4 and Full-Year 2023 Generation Metrics
Q4 and Full-Year 2023 Generation Metrics Total Generation1 Capacity Factor (CCGT) TWhs Q4 2022 Q4 2023 FY 2022 FY 2023 % Q3 2022 Q4 2023 FY 2022 FY 2023 TEXAS 20.8 19.6 80.5 85.4 TEXAS 48% 49% 49% 55% EAST 13.7 15 54.6 60.5 EAST 57% 60% 57% 62% WEST 1.6 1.8 5.1 5.5 WEST 71% 76% 57% 61% SUNSET 5.5 5.
Slide 17: Capital Expenditures
Capital Expenditures Capital Expenditures1 ($ millions) 2023A 2024E Nuclear & Fossil Maintenance2,3 $730 $727 Nuclear Fuel 206 149 Non-Recurring4 8 -- Solar & Energy Storage Development 550 745 Other Growth5 120 74 Total Capital Expenditures $1,614 $1,695 Non-Recurring4 (8) -- Solar & Energy Storage
Slide 18: Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities
Hedge Profile & Portfolio Sensitivities Effective: Dec. 31, 2023 2024 2025 TEXAS WEST EAST SUNSET TOTAL TEXAS WEST EAST SUNSET TOTAL Nuclear/Renewable/Coal Gen Position Expected Generation (TWh) 48 27 75 48 25 73 % Hedged 96% 96% 96% 93% 58% 81% Net Position 2 1 3 3 11 14 Sensitivity to Power Price:
Slide 19: Market Pricing
Market Pricing Effective: 12/31/2023 2024 2025 2024 2025 Power (ATC, $/MWh) Spark Spreads ($/mwhr) ERCOT North Hub $48.69 $48.41 Approx. Contrib ution ERCOT West Hub $52.55 $50.67 ERCOT PJM AD Hub $39.04 $43.55 ERCOT North Hub-Houston Ship Channel 90% $28.85 $21.57 PJM Ni Hub $35.60 $38.99 ERCOT Wes
Slide 20: NE/NY and CAISO Market Curves
NE/NY and CAISO Market Curves Curves as of April 29, 2022 and Feb. 23, 2024. Spark spreads calculated using an assumed heat rate of 7.2 mmbtu/MWh with $2.50 variable O&M (VOM) costs (market power price –(7.2 x gas price + VOM)). Market power price weighted as NENY: 75% Mass Hub, 25% NY Zone A. Gas p
Slide 21: Capacity Positions
Capacity Positions Effective: Dec. 31, 2023 Segment Market Tenor MW Position Average Price Segment Market Tenor MW Position Average Price PJM1 $/mw-day CAISO RTO 2023/2024 3,296 $35.52 2024 1,880 2024/2025 3,156 $31.91 WEST 2025 1,770 2025/2026 400 $70.40 2026 1,250 ComEd 2023/2024 1,200 $34.63 2027
Slide 22: Asset Fleet Details
Asset Fleet Details Net Capacity Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel (MW)1 Ennis Ennis, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 366 Forney Forney, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,912 Hays San Marcos, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,047 Lamar Paris, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,076 Midlothian Midlothian, TX ERCOT CCGT Gas 1,596 Odessa Odessa, TX E
Slide 23: Asset Fleet Details (cont'd)
Asset Fleet Details (cont’d) Net Capacity Asset Location ISO Technology Primary Fuel (MW)1 Independence Oswego, NY NYISO CCGT Gas 1,212 Bellingham Bellingham, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 566 Blackstone Blackstone, MA ISO-NE CCGT Gas 544 Casco Bay Veazie, ME ISO-NE CCGT Gas 543 Lake Road Dayville, CT ISO-NE C
Slide 24: Vistra Zero & Sustainability Goals
Vistra Zero & Sustainability Goals VISTRA CORP. 04 24
Slide 25: Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility
Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility Phase III of the Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility came online June 2023 and brought the site's total energy storage capacity to 750MW / 3,000MWh Vistra Investor Presentation / Q4 and Full-Year Results 2023 25
Slide 26: Leveraging our existing sites - Vistra Zero Portfolio
Leveraging our existing sites - Vistra Zero Portfolio Disciplined growth of our clean energy portfolio, Vistra Zero, with a focus on diversified generation sources, markets and revenue sources. DeCordova Energy Moss Landing Storage Facility Energy Storage 260 MW/260 MWh Facility 750 MW/3,000 MWh Bat
Slide 27: Vistra Zero Portfolio
Vistra Zero Portfolio ~3,750 MW of zero-carbon generation currently online, including 2,400 MW of nuclear generation at Comanche Peak facility; named projects listed below reflect near-term development opportunities Capacity Asset Location ISO Status In-Service Year2 (MW) 1 NUCLEAR 2,400 MW Nuclear
Slide 28: Sustainability: Environmental Stewardship
Sustainability: Environmental Stewardship Vistra’s GHG targets emphasize its sustainability transition that balances reliability and affordability of power EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS1 PORTFOLIO TRANSFORMATION2 Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG Emissions SO2 Emissions ~15,150 MW Zero Carbon Capacity MW (Million mtCO
Slide 29: Sustainability: Social Responsibility & Governance
Sustainability: Social Responsibility & Governance Vistra’s Purpose: Lighting up lives, powering a better way forward PEOPLE AND COMMUNITIES GOVERNANCE Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion • Oversight of Vistra’s ESG initiatives is governed by the full Vistra board, with oversight of subject matter-spec
Slide 30: Energy Harbor Acquisition – Announced March 6, 2023
Energy Harbor Acquisition – Announced March 6, 2023 VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q4 and Full-Year Results 2023 30
Slide 31: Energy Harbor Overview
Energy Harbor Overview Energy Harbor is an integrated, nuclear generation-focused power company that owns / operates three nuclear plants in PJM as well as a retail power platform in PJM / MISO 908 939 Capacity (MW) 4,048 MW Beaver Valley 1 Perry 933 Beaver Valley 2 Davis-Besse WI 1,268 MI 2 PA 1.8
Slide 32: Simplified Pro Forma Structure and Key Transaction Terms
Simplified Pro Forma Structure and Key Transaction Terms Creation of Vistra Vision • Combines Energy Harbor’s nuclear and retail businesses with Vistra’s Shareholders nuclear and retail businesses and certain Vistra Zero renewables and storage projects under a newly-formed subsidiary holding company
Slide 33: Combines Two Leading Nuclear Operators
Combines Two Leading Nuclear Operators Energy Harbor and Vistra have extensive experience in safely operating nuclear assets; combination is supported by a comprehensive multi-month diligence process with site visits and third-party assessments ▪ Vistra is currently the fourth largest owner of merch
Slide 34: Pro Forma Vistra Vision Fleet Asset Details
Pro Forma Vistra Vision Fleet Asset Details Asset Location ISO Capacity (MW)1 Status In-Service Year2 NUCLEAR Comanche Peak Glen Rose, TX ERCOT 2,400 Online 1990 Beaver Valley I & II Shippingport, PA PJM 1,872 Online 1976 / 1987 Perry Perry, Ohio PJM 1,268 Online 1986 Davis-Besse Oak Harbor, Ohio PJ
Slide 35: Increases Zero-Carbon Generation Baseload Capacity
Increases Zero-Carbon Generation Baseload Capacity Consolidated Operating & Under Vision Development by Technology (GW) 6% 1% 6% 1% Gas Renewables 7% 28% 15% Coal Nuclear Oil 22% 8.9 GW 41.8 GW 37.8 GW 4.0 GW 58% 64% 20% 72% 100% Operating & Under Development by Geography (GW) ERCOT ISO-NE 5% 3% 4%
Slide 36: Nuclear PTC Overview
Nuclear PTC Overview Nuclear assets benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) nuclear Production Tax Credit (PTC), which creates revenue stability during periods of lower power prices Illustrative Revenue Support PTC Mechanism ($/MWh) $53.31 (2032) • The nuclear PTC is a tax credit that provi
Slide 37: Non-GAAP Reconciliations
Non-GAAP Reconciliations VISTRA CORP. 04 Vistra Investor Presentation / Q4 and Full-Year Results 2023 37
Slide 38: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 4Q 2023 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 4Q 2023 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2023 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations Ongoing / Corp and Operations Asset Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Other Consolidated Closure Consolidated Net in
Slide 39: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Full-Year 2023 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Full-Year 2023 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS TWELVE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2023 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations Ongoing / Corp and Operations Asset Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Other Consolidated Closure Consolidate
Slide 40: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 4Q 2022 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 4Q 2022 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS THREE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2022 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations Ongoing / Corp and Operations Asset Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Other Consolidated Closure Consolidated Net in
Slide 41: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Full-Year 2022 Adjusted EBITDA
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Full-Year 2022 Adjusted EBITDA VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS TWELVE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2022 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Eliminations Ongoing / Corp and Operations Asset Vistra Corp. Retail Texas East West Sunset Other Consolidated Closure Consolidate
Slide 42: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Full-Year 2023 Adjusted FCFbG
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – Full-Year 2023 Adjusted FCFbG VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS TWELVE MONTHS ENDED DECEMBER 31, 2023 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Asset Vistra Operations Closure Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $4,140 ($39) $4,101 Interest paid, net (a) (560) — (560) Taxes
Slide 43: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2024 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2024 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2024 GUIDANCE1 (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) Ongoing Vistra Operations Asset Closure Consolidated Low High Low High Low High Net Income (loss) 1,790 2,090 (140) (40) 1,650 2,050 Income tax expense 500 600 0 0 500 60
Slide 44: Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2024 Guidance
Non-GAAP Reconciliations – 2024 Guidance VISTRA CORP. – NON-GAAP RECONCILIATIONS 2024 GUIDANCE1 FOOTNOTES (Unaudited) (Millions of Dollars) 1.Regulation G Table for 2024 Guidance prepared as of November 7, 2023; excludes any potential contributions from Energy Harbor’s performance (a) Includes unrea