Slide 1: Major New US Industry at a Crossroads: US LNG Impact Study Phase 2
Major New US Industry at a Crossroads A US LNG Impact Study – Phase 2 Report by Commodity Insights and Market Intelligence March 2025 © 2025 by S &P Global Inc. Per mission to re print o r d istribute any con ten t from this presentation require s the prior written app roval o f S&P Glo bal.
Slide 2: Study Preface
Preface, Acknowledgements & Key Conclusions Study Preface In the S&P Global December 2024 Phase 1 report, we examined the remarkable rise of the US liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry. In less than a decade, this sector has become a major export industry, contributing more than $400 billion to U.S.
Slide 3: S&P Global Study Acknowledgements
Preface, Acknowledgements & Key Conclusions S&P Global Study Acknowledgements S&P Global Project Leadership Team Project Chairman, Daniel Yergin S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We enable governments, Vice Chairman, S&P Global businesses and individuals with the right data, e
Slide 4: Key conclusions of the Phase 2 US LNG Study
Preface, Acknowledgements & Key Conclusions As the LNG ‘pause’ is lifted, the Phase 2 US LNG Study highlights emissions benefits, economic impact beyond producing states and New England infrastructure constraints ▪ Continued development of US LNG (40 Mtpa of pre-FID or ‘halted projects’) results in
Slide 5: Contents
Contents Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Transcending Boundaries: The Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Transcending Boundaries: The Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Unleashing Marcellus Utica: Easing Pipeline Constraints in the NE Unleashing Marcellus & Utica: Easing Pipe
Slide 6: Incremental US LNG is less GHG-intensive than modelled alternative energy sources
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Incremental US LNG is less GHG-intensive than modelled alternative energy sources, based on the best available data and analysis to date (including coal under any scenario) ▪ This analysis considers the GHG emissions impact of 40 Mtpa increment
Slide 7: Phase 1 modeled the global energy response to the US LNG Extended Halt Scenario
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions In Phase 1 we modeled the global energy response to the US LNG ‘Extended Halt’ Scenario with fossil fuels and renewable generation replacing impacted US LNG exports LNG Change in S&P ‘Extended Halt’ vs. Incremental US LNG1 Scenarios – Yearly Av
Slide 8: Phase 2 evaluates the GHG emissions impact of incremental US LNG
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Phase 2 evaluates the GHG emissions impact of incremental US LNG (pre-FID or 'halted' projects) in our Base Case, relative to the alternative energy response modelled in Phase 1 Critical Definitions of the Lifecycle GHG Intensity Estimate from
Slide 9: Emissions from incremental US LNG exports are lower than alternatives
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Emissions from incremental US LNG exports in the Base Case are 27 / 65 MtCO2e (GWP100 / GWP201) lower per year than the alternative energy sources modelled GHG Emissions Corresponding to ‘Extended Halt’ vs. Incremental US LNG Scenarios2 M tCO2e
Slide 10: Avoided emissions equivalent to the UK's road transport sector
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Increased exports of US LNG would lead to 780 MtCO 2e less emissions (GWP20) 2028- 2040, equivalent to the emissions of the UK’s road transport sector over the same period Equivalent to the emissions of: More than twice the cars in Los Angeles
Slide 11: GHG intensity is driven by end-use combustion
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions GHG intensity is driven by end-use combustion: Coal replacing US LNG is 65% more intensive in GWP100 terms than US LNG across the impacted destination markets Weighted Average Full Lifecycle GHG Intensity1 (Production to End Use) gCO2e/MJ | % s
Slide 12: Far more observed methane data accessed for US relative to alternative sources
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Given commercially or publicly available data access by S&P Global, 20 – 300 times more observed methane data was accessed for US relative to alternative sources Global O&G Methane Emissions Intensity Estimates (Production to Gas Processing) So
Slide 13: GHG intensity of alternative LNG sources and other fuels varies widely
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions The resulting GHG intensity of alternative sources of LNG and other fuels varies widely, mainly due to methane, but flaring, reservoir properties, and operations also contribute Lifecycle GHG Intensity of LNG, Oil, and Coal Delivered to the Des
Slide 14: 20-year GWP emphasizes methane impact on lifecycle intensity
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Considering a 20-year GWP emphasizes the relative impact of methane emissions on lifecycle intensity differentials across the various fuels Lifecycle GHG Intensity of LNG, Oil, and Coal Delivered to the Destination Markets Assumed gCO2e/MJ, 20-
Slide 15: Variations in methane intensities among gas sources
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Variations in methane intensities among gas sources are driven by country-specific emissions rate obtained from satellite observations and literature Midpoint Methane Intensity by Value Chain Intensity, %CH4 released / %CH4 in gas stream1 Indig
Slide 16: Non-US feedstock gas has lower fuel use but higher methane uncertainty
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Non-US feedstock gas is mostly sourced from large conventional reservoirs with lower fuel use requirements in production but often with higher methane uncertainty Well to Transmission GHG Intensity Methane Intensity1 Well to Transmission GHG In
Slide 17: Flyover data show upstream methane reduction efforts gaining traction
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions High-frequency, high-resolution methane flyover data available in the US indicates that upstream efforts to reduce methane emissions are gaining traction Oil and Gas Production Segment Current Methane Intensity Levels %CH4 released / %CH4 in ga
Slide 18: Near-zero methane would make coal 77% more intensive than US LNG
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Achieving near-zero methane emissions in the gas and LNG value chains would make coal replacing US LNG 77% more intensive in GWP100 terms Average Lifecycle GHG Intensity (Production to End Use) gCO2e/MJ, 100-yr GWP End use Supply chain methane
Slide 19: Differences between S&P's analysis and other studies
Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Differences in results of S&P’s analysis and other studies are driven by emissions allocations to co-products, 20- vs. 100-year GWP, and methane intensity assumptions Supply Chain GHG Intensity Estimates Benchmarking (Excluding End Use) gCO2e/M
Slide 20: Contents
Contents Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Transcending Boundaries: The Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Unleashing Marcellus Utica: Easing Pipeline Constraints in the NE Unleashing Marcellus & Utica: Easing Pipeline Con
Slide 21: Regional impact of US LNG export value chain reaches all US states
Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG The regional impact of US LNG export value chain reaches all US states — supply chain integration is extensive, broad and homegrown ▪ The regional impact analysis builds on our Phase 1 study, which demonstrated that the Base Case outloo
Slide 22: Extended supply chains involve producing and non-producing states
Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Growth in the US LNG export industry will utilize extended supply chains that involve both producing and non-producing states Industrial Construction & well Information Professional & equipment & Logistics Materials services technology
Slide 23: 37% of jobs supported will be in non-producing states
Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG In the Base Case, 37% of the jobs supported by LNG exports to 2040 will be in non-producing states1 Average annual jobs supported in the Base Case Annual average direct, indirect and induced jobs, 2025–2040 Both Texas and the aggregate
Slide 24: Economic impact spans the US, focused on producing states
Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Economic impact from US LNG exports will span the US, focused on the producing states and the industrial mix of the Midwest, East and West Coasts State-level distribution of jobs, Base Case Scenario State-level distribution of GDP per c
Slide 25: Congressional districts with major LNG value chain activity have more jobs
Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Congressional districts with major US LNG value chain activity have higher concentrations of jobs supported Jobs Supported by Congressional District: Southwestern Cluster Jobs Supported by Congressional District: Midwest/Mid-Atlantic Cl
Slide 26: Congressional districts benefiting most from US LNG
Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Congressional districts most benefited are in areas with the highest direct US LNG value chain activity, but gains are distributed throughout the US Cumulative GDP per capita in producing states Cumulative GDP per capita, top 20 congres
Slide 27: Contents
Contents Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Transcending Boundaries: The Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Transcending Boundaries: The Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Unleashing Marcellus & Utica: Easing Pipeline Const
Slide 28: Unlocking Marcellus and Utica shale gas through additional pipeline capacity
Unleashing the Marcellus & Utica: Pipeline Constraints in the NE Unlocking the full potential of Marcellus and Utica shale gas through additional pipeline capacity would lead to lower prices and consumer savings, particularly in the Northeast ▪ The Northeast has vast amounts of low-cost resources wi
Slide 29: Northeast has vast low-cost gas resources at risk of underdevelopment
Unleashing the Marcellus & Utica: Pipeline Constraints in the NE The Northeast has vast amounts of low-cost gas resources, much of which is at risk of underdevelopment due to natural gas pipeline bottlenecks Lower 48 US Onshore Commercial Gas Resources by Play 1 $/MMBtu, Tcf of gas resource Marcellu
Slide 30: Northeast and Midwest gas prices higher than Henry Hub
Unleashing the Marcellus & Utica: Pipeline Constraints in the NE Despite having 620 Tcf of low-cost gas resources, pipeline constraints have caused Northeast and Midwest gas prices to be higher than Henry Hub over the last 15 years Historical Natural Gas Prices – Northeast and Midwest Winter Peak Mo
Slide 31: Pipeline expansion corridors would bring low-cost resources to consumers
Unleashing the Marcellus & Utica: Pipeline Constraints in the NE The addition of several pipeline expansion corridors would bring more low-cost resources to consumers throughout the eastern US Northeast Egress Capacity Expansions Proposed in “NE Pipeline Expansion” Scenario – Total 6.1 Bcf/d expansi
Slide 32: Northeast pipeline expansions would reduce Henry Hub prices
Unleashing the Marcellus & Utica: Pipeline Constraints in the NE Northeast pipeline expansions would reduce gas prices across the entire US Lower 48, leading to a Henry Hub price reduction of 4% ($0.20/MMBtu) in the 2028 – 2040 period Henry Hub Annual1 Real 2024 Price Henry Hub Annual1 Price Differe
Slide 33: Expansions would benefit constrained, higher priced NE markets
Unleashing the Marcellus & Utica: Pipeline Constraints in the NE These pipeline expansions would particularly benefit more constrained and higher priced NE markets, reducing prices up to 30% in peak months and 17-27% on average to 2040 Relevant Gas Hubs Change in Natural Gas Prices January Average –
Slide 34: Pipeline debottlenecking would save $76 billion to 2040
Unleashing the Marcellus & Utica: Pipeline Constraints in the NE Northeast gas pipeline debottlenecking would result in cumulative savings of $76 billion to 2040 to gas consumers relative to $14 billion of capital required for pipeline expansion Northeast US Pipeline Expansion Summarized Results – 2
Slide 35: Contents
Contents Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Transcending Boundaries: The Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Transcending Boundaries: The Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Unleashing Marcellus Utica: Easing Pipeline Constra
Slide 36: Emissions intensity methodology by supply chain segment
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions The study evaluates emissions intensity across energy sources by analyzing supply chain segments and considering direct emissions ▪ Goal: To estimate the impact on life-cycle GHG emissions of the US LNG ‘Extended Halt’ Scenario and t
Slide 37: Emissions from incremental US LNG are 18 to 35 MtCO2e lower per year
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Emissions from incremental US LNG exports in the Base Case are 18 to 35 MtCO2e (GWP1001) lower per year than the alternative energy sources modelled GHG Emissions Corresponding to the Impacted US LNG Exports and the Potential Global
Slide 38: LNG supply chain segments
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions We evaluated the typical segments of the LNG supply chain, which includes additional segments with significant energy requirements beyond the natural gas supply chain Natural gas value chain Liquefied natural gas (LNG) value chain Pr
Slide 39: Oil value chain emissions
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions In the oil value chain, methane emissions in the production segment dominate, while refining remain the most energy-intensive segments Production Shipping Processing End Use1 Exploration Shipping Receiving Combustion for Development
Slide 40: Coal supply chain emissions
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions For coal most of the supply chain GHG emissions are due to logistics and operations, except for subsurface mines where methane plays a larger role Production Post-mining Transportation¹ Shipping End Use Mining Processing Land Receivi
Slide 41: Data sources for LNG GHG emission intensity estimates (1 of 2)
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Data sources for LNG GHG emission intensity estimates by country (1 of 2) Unconventional Gas Combustion emissions Flaring emissions Methane emissions End Use Drilling & Gathering & Gas Transmission Shipping & Production Liquefaction
Slide 42: Data sources for LNG (2 of 2)
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Data sources for LNG (2 of 2) Conventional Gas Combustion emissions Flaring emissions Methane emissions End Use Drilling & Gathering & Gas Transmission Shipping & Production Liquefaction Transportation Completion Boosting Processing
Slide 43: Data sources for other fuels
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Data sources for other fuels Oil and Coal Combustion emissions Flaring emissions Methane emissions Upstream Midstream Downstream End Use Volume Allocations OPGEE & EPA emission ▪ Total shipped oil S&P Global Center of Emissions model
Slide 44: US upstream methane intensity benchmarking
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions In the US, S&P Global leveraged TROPOMI satellite observation-based estimates of methane intensity US Upstream Methane Intensity Benchmarking % of gas produced Barnett Academic literature1 Bakken 2014 – 2017 2018 - 2021 Anadarko 2022
Slide 45: Overview of global methane emission studies considered
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Overview of global methane emission studies considered Location Study Year published Basins considered (US only) Countries covered Barnett Marcellus Sherwin et al. 2024/2025 Denver Julesburg Permian Anadarko Denver Julesburg Appalach
Slide 46: Methane intensity methodology for GHGSat and Sentinel-2 data
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions For international plays, GHGSat and Sentinel-2 plumes were used to estimate average emission rates and leak duration for certain value chain segments and asset types Methane Intensity Methodology for GHGSat and Sentinel-2 Data Analys
Slide 47: Most upstream and midstream methane comes from facilities emitting above 100 kg/h
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions 70% of total CH4 upstream and midstream emissions come from facilities emitting at rates >100 kg/h, hence the importance of adjusting emissions from satellite observations Methane Intensity Results for GHGSat and Sentinel-2 Data Anal
Slide 48: Sentinel-2 estimated upstream methane intensities
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Methane intensity estimates informed by Sentinel-2 plume detection (adjusted for its high sub-threshold detection using Permian basin distribution) are aligned with expectations Sentinel-2 Estimated Upstream Methane Intensities for S
Slide 49: Methane intensity of international energy response is more uncertain
.Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Methane intensity of the international energy response is more uncertain given the limited availability to frequent and reliable measurement data Select Sentinel-2 and GHGSat Observed Methane Plumes with Underlying Oil and Gas Asset
Slide 50: Allocation of emissions between co-products in academic studies
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Failure to follow standard LCA approach of allocating emissions between co-products based on energy content leads to a significant overestimation of gas GHG intensity Academic Studies Surveyed and their Main Parameters GHG Emissions
Slide 51: Coal GHG intensity reflects mine type and coal produced
Appendix – Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Our estimate of coal GHG intensity reflects the type of mine and coal produced in the largest suppliers to the destination markets impacted under the LNG Halt scenario Main Drivers of Coal GHG Emissions Intensity Case Comparison: Chi
Slide 52: Contents
Contents Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Beyond the Pause: US LNG Impact on Global GHG Emissions Transcending Boundaries: The Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Transcending Boundaries: The Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Unleashing Marcellus Utica: Easing Pipeline Constra
Slide 53: Economic impact methodology: overview
Appendix – Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Economic impact methodology: overview ▪ Economic impact estimates – including the direct, indirect, and induced effects of US LNG activity – were generated for the US and 50 states and Washington DC. ▪ Direct spending, initia
Slide 54: Building the national economic impact model
Appendix – Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Building the national economic impact model ▪ IO tables link the buying and selling relationships between Expenditures producers and consumers within an economy. They underlie all Regional Intermediate Demand economic impact
Slide 55: Building the state economic impact models
Appendix – Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Building the state economic impact models ▪ S&P Global Market Intelligence used a standard matrix balancing process known as the RAS method to transform the BEA’s national US models into companion sets of state models. ▪ The
Slide 56: Building the state economic impact models (cont.)
Appendix – Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Building the state economic impact models (cont.) ▪ S&P Global supplemented its state IO tables with a multi-regional ▪ The formula is displayed below. input output model (MRIO). ▪ That interstate trade total is distributed a
Slide 57: US Economic impacts of LNG activity, 2025–2040
Appendix – Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG US Economic impacts of LNG activity, 2025–2040 Base Case (cumulative real 2024$ or jobs) Total jobs supported (annual avg.) Gross Domestic Product ($M) GDP per capita Total 495,373 1,299,029 3,764 Direct 128,356 470,818 1,364
Slide 58: Economic impacts by state in base case, 2025–2040
Appendix – Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Economic impacts by state in base case, 2025–2040 (cumulative real 2024$ or average annual jobs) State Total Jobs Supported Gross State Product ($M) GSP per capita State Total Jobs Supported Gross State Product ($M) GSP per c
Slide 59: Economic impacts by Congressional District in base case
Appendix – Transcending Boundaries: the Broader Economic Impacts of US LNG Economic impacts by Congressional District in base case, 2025–2040 (cumulative real 2024$ or average annual jobs) Gross District Product District Total jobs supported Gross District Product ($M) GSP per capita District Total
Slide 60: Contacts
Contacts For more information on this report, please contact: Eric Eyberg Leandro Caputo Head of Global Gas & Power CI Consulting Executive Director, Gas & LNG CI Consulting Eric.Eyberg@spglobal.com Leandro.Caputo@spglobal.com Linda Kinney Head of Americas Business Development Linda.Kinney@spglobal.
Slide 61: Disclaimer
S&P Global Commodity Insights is a business division of S&P Global Inc. (“SPGCI”). The reports, data, and information referenced in this document (“Deliverables") are the copyrighted property of SPGCI and represent data, research, opinions, or viewpoints of SPGCI. SPGCI prepared the Deliverables usi
Slide 62: S&P Global
S&P Global