Slide 1: Price and Economic Impacts of an Accelerating Export Industry
Price and Economic Impacts of an Accelerating Export Industry US LNG Impact Study – Phase 4 Report by S&P Global Energy July 16th, 2026 © 2026 S&P Global Permission to reprint or distribute any content from this presentation requires the prior written approval of S&P Global
Slide 2: Acknowledgements & Key Conclusions
Acknowledgements & Key Conclusions S&P Global Energy Study Acknowledgements This report represents the independent analysis and views of S&P Global Energy. The study S&P Global Energy Project Leadership Team was supported by the US Chamber of Commerce, as a follow-up study to our December 2024 Proje
Slide 3: LNG is poised to be the 2nd largest US net export industry
Acknowledgements & Key Conclusions LNG is poised to be the 2nd largest US net export industry – accelerated growth has a negligible impact to US household gas costs, among the most affordable globally US LNG exports are expected to make a trillion-dollar contribution to the economy with a negligible
Slide 4: Contents
Contents The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User Prices Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamic
Slide 5: The US gas market has experienced 15 years of unprecedented growth
The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth The US gas market has experienced 15 years of unprecedented growth, enabling energy independence, an industrial revival, cleaner power and a new US LNG export sector US Gas Demand by Sector bcf/d +47 Net Change Enabled US energy independence – The
Slide 6: US LNG industry has become a key net exporter
The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth Over the past decade, the US LNG industry has solidified itself as a key net exporter, generating over $44 Billion in export revenue in 2025 Crops Movies & TV Semiconductors Passenger Vehicles Double and triple the value Triple the exports value of
Slide 7: Two highly competitive supply engines: Permian associated gas and dry gas
The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth This growth has been driven by two highly competitive supply engines: associated gas from the Permian and low-cost dry gas from Appalachia and the Haynesville US Gas Supply by Type bcf/d The Shale Revolution – New basins, such as +47 Appalachia and
Slide 8: 45 years of identified commercial gas resources
The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth Together, these basins comprise one of the world’s largest and most economic gas resource bases, with 45 years of identified commercial gas resources at current demand levels Lower 48 US Onshore Commercial Gas Resources by Type1 The current US gas
Slide 9: Henry Hub price eras and the new shale paradigm
The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth This resource base has driven a shift away from structural scarcity to the new paradigm marked by lower prices, with volatility resulting mainly from infrastructure constraints Henry Hub Prices Have Gone through Several Eras, Driven by Supply Dynam
Slide 10: Surge in US gas production triple the size of LNG growth
The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth The surge in total US gas production, triple the size of US LNG growth to date, has enabled both exports and declining US natural gas prices US Lower 48 Gas Production Growth vs LNG Export Feedgas Henry Hub Gas Prices Trended Down in the Last 15 Ye
Slide 11: World's largest interconnected gas infrastructure network, with regional bottlenecks
The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth The scale and depth of the US resource base is supported by the world’s largest and most interconnected gas infrastructure network… but regional bottlenecks exist The US has >$280 billion dollars >300,000 miles of has been spent natural gas expandi
Slide 12: Gas pipeline additions since 2015
The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth Nearly 1,100 miles of gas pipeline have been added annually since 2015, with more than half built in the Gulf Coast States as Permian volumes and LNG exports have ramped up The US Gulf Coast Has Been a Focal Point for Natural Gas Pipeline Additions
Slide 13: Affordable end-user natural gas prices globally
The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth The combination of abundant, low-cost resource and the largest gas network in the world results in some of the most affordable end-user natural gas prices globally US Has Low Residential Natural Gas Prices1 US Ranks Among Lowest Industrial Natural
Slide 14: Contents
Contents The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User Prices Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-Use
Slide 15: US is the world's leading LNG supplier
LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Outlet for a World-Class Resource The US has become the world’s leading LNG supplier and is expected to expand its market share in the coming 5 years, surpassing a third of global LNG supply by 2031 LNG Supply by Major Exporting Country1 bcf/d United States Qatar Austra
Slide 16: LNG exports accelerating and driving gas demand growth
LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Outlet for a World-Class Resource LNG exports are accelerating and driving natural gas demand growth over the next five years – our Base Case US LNG export view has increased 25% in only 18 months US Gas Demand by Sector Projected Evolution of US LNG Feedgas bcf/d bcf/d
Slide 17: US LNG poised to become second largest net export industry
LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Outlet for a World-Class Resource US LNG exports, $44 Billion in 2025, are poised to become the second largest net export industry in the US, with LNG export capacity more than doubling in the next 5 years US Top Net Exports by Major Product $ Billions, Real 2025 180 16
Slide 18: LNG-related pipeline infrastructure investment
LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Outlet for a World-Class Resource This sector’s growth will require tens of billions of infrastructure investment in a challenging environment for building pipelines, particularly across state borders US LNG-Related Pipeline Additions (2016 – 2031)1 Equivalent to: $19B
Slide 19: US LNG value chain investment to exceed $1 Trillion through 2040
LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Outlet for a World-Class Resource Investment supporting the US LNG value chain is expected to exceed $1 Trillion dollars through 2040 Total US LNG Value Chain Direct Expenditure $39 B direct expenditure as: $ Billions, Real 2025 ▪ $20 B Capex on 35 new build and Upstrea
Slide 20: $1.4 Trillion GDP contribution and 555,000 jobs by 2040
LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Outlet for a World-Class Resource From 2025 to 2040 the US LNG industry is expected to contribute $1.4 Trillion to GDP and support an annual average of 555,000 jobs1 $1.4 T $1.0 T 555,000 Impact on Total direct Average annual direct, US GDP expenditures2 across indirect
Slide 21: Economic impacts extend across the nation
LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Outlet for a World-Class Resource Economic impacts extend across the nation, with 42% of jobs and 33% of GDP contributions occurring in non gas-producing areas State-Level Distribution of Jobs State-Level Distribution of GDP per Capita Average Annual Jobs, 2025 - 2040 C
Slide 22: Contents
Contents The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User
Slide 23: US gas market resilient to external shocks
Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User Prices The US domestic gas market is resilient to external shocks compared to global gas and other commodities, as US gas prices declined during the Iran conflict US Natural Gas Prices Remain Resilient to Global Shocks $/MMBtu, Nominal 2026
Slide 24: Flexible US LNG as a domestic price shock absorber
Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User Prices Flexible US LNG has turned export capacity into a domestic gas price shock absorber, redirecting up to 9 bcf/d of feedgas to the US market during Winter Storm Fern US LNG Feedgas Demand and Henry Hub Spot Price (January 2026 – Februar
Slide 25: Regional dynamics and price drivers in US gas market
Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User Prices Each region in the US gas market has its own dynamics and price drivers – regional policies, weather and pipeline bottlenecks in key corridors create price differentials There Are Numerous Gas Pricing Hubs in the US1 Natural Gas Price
Slide 26: Seasonal demand profiles in the Northeast and Mid-Continent
Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User Prices Regions like the Northeast and Mid-Continent have highly seasonal demand profiles driven by winter heating and growing winter power loads, not LNG exports Natural Gas Demand Can Vary Drastically Across Winter and Summer Months bcf/d,
Slide 27: Northeast pipeline projects timeline
Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User Prices Northeast constraints have been exacerbated as pipeline projects haven’t advanced for as much as 10 years due to regulatory opposition, but the environment may be shifting Northeast Gas Pipelines Projects Timeline (2015 – 2026) NOT EX
Slide 28: Northeast infrastructure expansion would lower peak prices
Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User Prices Expanding Northeast infrastructure would improve affordability by lowering regional prices by more than 20% during peak months – additional constraints would accentuate peaks More infrastructure could ease peak pricing in the Northeas
Slide 29: Commodity costs under a quarter of residential prices
Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User Prices Natural gas commodity costs generally account for less than a quarter of residential end- user prices, with local distribution accounting for the bulk of residential prices Residential End Users Pay a Variety of Fees On Top of Commodi
Slide 30: Retail power prices not well-correlated to natural gas prices
Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User Prices Retail power prices are also influenced by many factors and are not well-correlated to wholesale natural gas and power prices Average Retail Power Prices Are Largely Decoupled From Natural Gas Prices $/MMBtu, Real 2025 Cents per Kilow
Slide 31: Contents
Contents The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User
Slide 32: Base Case includes 10 bcf/d of new US LNG capacity
Impact of New US LNG Investment: Prices, Trade & Energy Security S&P’s latest Base Case includes 10 bcf/d of new US LNG capacity investment, growth of almost 50% in incremental capacity since the lifting of the ‘pause’ in January 2025 US Project Incremental Build-Up Capacity Post-2025, by Status bcf
Slide 33: Impact of new LNG investment on US gas prices is negligible
Impact of New US LNG Investment: Prices, Trade & Energy Security The impact of new LNG investment on US gas prices is negligible, likely overwhelmed by other factors such as short-term dynamics (e.g. weather, storage) and pipe constraints Henry Hub Prices in ‘Extended Pause’ Scenario $/MMBtu, Real 2
Slide 34: Extended Pause increases reliance on non-US LNG and other fossil fuels
Impact of New US LNG Investment: Prices, Trade & Energy Security An ‘Extended Pause’ would increase the global market’s reliance on non-US LNG projects, most notably in Russia, and other fossil fuels including coal 2031 ‘Extended Pause’ Scenario LNG Supply & Demand Response bcf/d, Data for 2031 US L
Slide 35: Without US LNG, EU ban on Russian gas would be difficult
Impact of New US LNG Investment: Prices, Trade & Energy Security Without US LNG, implementing the EU ban on Russian gas & LNG starting in 2027 would be difficult owing to underutilized Russian capacity and loss of confidence in US reliability Russia Gas & LNG Export Infrastructure to Europe An ‘Exte
Slide 36: Global LNG prices 50% higher absent incremental US LNG
Impact of New US LNG Investment: Prices, Trade & Energy Security Absent incremental US LNG, global LNG markets tighten by 2031, pushing prices 50% higher ($3/MMBtu) for Asia and Europe Europe and Asia Price Scenarios $/MMBtu, Real 2025 15.0 14.0 An ‘Extended Pause’ scenario pushes prices in 13.0 Asi
Slide 37: Up to $76 Billion in additional import costs in 2031
Impact of New US LNG Investment: Prices, Trade & Energy Security Higher LNG prices materially increase import costs for Europe and Asia, up to $76 Billion in additional costs in 2031, largely captured by non-US LNG energy suppliers Difference of LNG Import Cost in 2031 – Base Case vs ‘Extended Pause
Slide 38: US LNG as a key driver of energy security
Impact of New US LNG Investment: Prices, Trade & Energy Security Additionally, US LNG is a key driver of energy security, improving resilience to price shocks during disruptions at home and abroad US LNG Export Growth Supports Supply Diversification1 US LNG Expands Energy Security And Resilience US
Slide 39: Contents
Contents The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User
Slide 40: Key Study Takeaways
Key Takeaways Key Study Takeaways The US LNG export sector has rapidly emerged within the past decade to become a $44 billion annual industry in 2025, poised to become the #2 US net export industry over the next 5 years Growth potential is at risk due to potential policy derailment – on current trac
Slide 41: Contents
Contents The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth The US Gas Market: 15 Years of Unprecedented Growth LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource LNG-Led Growth Era: A Growing Market for a World-Class Resource Domestic Price Formation: From Market Dynamics to End-User
Slide 42: Integrated energy market modelling process
Appendix – Detailed Methodology Our best-in-industry integrated energy market modelling process is connected to granular gas and power models for credible and detailed results S&P Global Energy has the world’s largest team of over 1,400 energy and economic analysts continuously modelling markets 1.
Slide 43: Upstream models and US market-based forecasts
Appendix – Detailed Methodology Upstream leverages inputs and bespoke models to generate US market-based forecasts including required iterations for specific scenarios Inputs Completion rate, well quality, drilling days, lateral length, productivity Crude Oil Play Crude Oil Rollup trends, DUCs, inve
Slide 44: Economic and energy modelling framework
Appendix – Detailed Methodology S&P leveraged our economic and energy modelling framework to capture the impact of anticipated US LNG export growth on economic indicators Global Link Model Direct economic contribution Dynamic global macro model of 68 countries Competitive aspects and implications fo
Slide 45: Northeast infrastructure analysis scenarios
Appendix – Detailed Methodology The Northeast infrastructure analysis leveraged this integrated architecture to create two bespoke scenarios deviating from S&P’s Base Case, ensuring a robust model framework We tested two extreme conditions to evaluate the price impacts from an expanded versus a cons
Slide 46: Contacts
Contacts For more information on this report, please contact: Eric Eyberg Leandro Caputo Vice President, Gas & LNG CERA Consulting Executive Director, Gas & LNG CERA Consulting Eric.Eyberg@spglobal.com Leandro.Caputo@spglobal.com James Crompton, CFA Avery Carmichael Director, Gas & LNG CERA Consulti
Slide 47: Disclaimer
S&P Global Energy (“SPGE”) is a business division of S&P Global Inc. The reports, data, and information referenced in this document (“Deliverables") are the copyrighted property of SPGE and represent data, research, opinions, or viewpoints of SPGE. SPGE prepared the Deliverables using reasonable ski
Slide 48: S&P Global Energy
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