Oxford Bank Corporation · OTC:OXBC
Oxford Bank — Investor Presentation (October 2023)
43 slides from Oxford Bank's investor presentation, October 2023
Slide 1: United States & Michigan Economic Update
UNITED STATES & MICHIGAN ECONOMIC UPDATE October 2023 1239 Anderson Road | Clawson, MI 48017 | 248.548.8400 | www.m-f-a.com
Slide 2: Inflation
INFLATION • What • Why • How Long • End Game - Inflation is slowing -The Federal Reserve will win 2
Slide 3: Inflation – All Items
INFLATION – ALL ITEMS Source: FRED CPI = 3.70% CPI X = 4.10% PCE = 3.88% 3
Slide 4: Inflation
_ | Core PCE 3.876420} }......} Ml Core CPI 4.146530 J.2..2./ ‘Jan 31 Mar 31 Mar 31 ‘Oct 16 Jun30" “Sep30" ‘Dec31” ‘Mar31” Jun30 ‘Sep30 Dec31 Mar31 Jun30. Sep30 Dec3l Mar3l Jun30 Sep30. Decal ‘Jun 30° ‘Sep 30 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 4 | McQueen Financial Advisors
Slide 5: Oil Prices
OIL PRICES Source: MFA Economic Update 5
Slide 6: Gas Prices
GAS PRICES FRED of) — US Regular All Formulations Gas Price 6 Dellars per Gallon uw nw 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: FRED 6 | McQueen Financial Advisors
Slide 7: Energy Prices
ENERGY PRICES FRED afi — Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Energy in U.S, City Average 360 320 Index 1982-1984=100 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: FRED 7 | McQueen Financial Advisors
Slide 8: Cause of Inflation
CAUSE OF INFLATION Source: FRED 2020 = roughly 5 years of money growth 8
Slide 9: Savings Rate
/ SAVINGS RATE FRED ofl — Personal Saving Rate 3% él 7) Percent 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985, 1990 1995 2000 2005 210 2015 2020 Source: FRED 9 | McQueen Financial Advisors
Slide 10: Local Economic Issues
LOCAL ECONOMIC ISSUES • Mortgage Companies • Auto & Auto Strikes • Labor • Commercial Real Estate • Employment 10
Slide 11: Mortgage Refinance Index
VORTEC Ace MORTGAGE REFINANCE INDEX 4000 wll ili Wihnstenon Jul 19 Jul '20 Jul '21 Jul '22 Jul '23 1 | Mc een Financial Advisors
Slide 12: Housing Market
HOUSING MARKET Source: FRED 12
Slide 13: Home Sales
HOME SALES Source: MFA Economic Update 13
Slide 14: Oakland County
OAKLAND COUNTY Source: Realator.com 14
Slide 15: SE Michigan
SE MICHIGAN Source: www.semcog.org 15
Slide 16: Oakland County
OAKLAND COUNTY Source: Realator.com 16
Slide 17: Auto Sales
AUTO SALES FRED afd — Light Weight Vehicle Sales: Autos and Light Trucks 25 20.0 175 150 Millions of Units 125 10.0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis fred stlouisfed.org 47 | McQueen Financial Advisors
Slide 18: Auto Values
yy AUTO VALUES MANHEIM USED VEHICLE VALUE INDEX September 2023 — Value 300 250 214.3 200 150 100 Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan, Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan, Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 48 | McQueen Financial Advisors
Slide 19: Strikes
STRIKES • UAW (tentative agreements) • Unifor (Canadian autoworkers – tentative) • Kaiser Permanente (tentative agreement) • Mack Truck • Detroit Casino Workers • Blue Cross Blue Shield of Michigan • Las Vegas Culinary Workers Union • SAG-AFTRA (Actors) 19
Slide 20: UAW Strike
UAW STRIKE Here Are the Locations Where U.A.W. a Beaverton, Ore. © Reno, Nev. Los Angeles qh ig Strikes Are Happening By Lazaro Gamio, Molly Cook Escobar and Eli Murray Updated Oct. 23, 2023 @ Assembly plants O Distribution centers 19 locations on strike in Michigan and Ohio . “DR A fr. ae ‘Chicago
Slide 21: UAW Strike
AUTO UAW STRIKE GM says its offer would boost average UAW worker pay to $150K The company’s CEO disclosed the information in a call with salaried staff as a way of explaining why it considers the UAW’s demands “untenable.” GM, Ford and Stellantis all agreed to raise base wages by between 20% and 23%
Slide 22: Demographics
DEMOGRAPHICS Working Ages 22
Slide 23: Unemployment Rate
MOV ey UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FRED off — Unemployment Rate in Michigan 25.0 Percent 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics fred stlouisfed.org FRED 23 | McQueen Financial Advisors
Slide 24: Job Openings
JOB OPENINGS 13,000 — Job Openings: Total Nonfarm 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 2.6M 7,000 6,000 Level in Thousands 5,000 4,000 3,000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics fred.stlouisfed.org FRED 24 |
Slide 25: ISM Manufacturing
ISM MANUFACTURING ISM Manufacturing - Business New Orders Source: Bloomberg 25
Slide 26: Global Manufacturing
GLOBAL MANUFACTURING Source: MFA Economic Update 26
Slide 27: Economic Update
ECONOMIC UPDATE Source: FRED 27
Slide 28: 10 Year Treasury
10 YEAR TREASURY Source: FRED 28
Slide 29: Prime Rate
PRIME RATE FRED af — Bank Prime Loan Rate 10 Percent 3 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 i Source: FRED 29 | McQueen Financial Advisors
Slide 30: Credit Default Swaps
CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS Source: Bloomberg 30
Slide 31: C&I Tightening Credit Standards
C&I Tightening Credit Standards Source: FRED 31
Slide 32: Commercial Real Estate Prices- USA
Commercial Real Estate Prices- USA Source: FRED 32
Slide 33: Delinquency
COmny re DELIQUENCY FRED wf, — Delinquency Rate on Commercial Real Estate Loans (Excluding Farmland), Booked in Domestic Offices, All Commercial Banks 9 Percent 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Source: FRED 33 | McQueen Financial Advisors
Slide 34: Type and Location
Type and Location Type • Office • Warehouse • Big box Location - Office • Birmingham less than 5% vacant • Troy reported at over 30% vacant 34
Slide 35: Federal Economic Issues
FEDERAL ECONOMIC ISSUES • Debt • How to pay the debt • Wars 35
Slide 36: Federal Debt
FEDERAL DEBT FRED of — Federal Debt: Total Public Debt 32,000,000 28,000,000 24,000,000 20,000,000 16,000,000 Millions of Dollars 12,000,000 8,000,000 4,000,000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Shaded areas indicate U.S. recessions. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury. Fisc
Slide 37: Debt Service
DEBT SERVICE U.S. Federal Budget Toplines S trillion Pra _ . , CBO (Net Interest ayments 1 Baseline : Ml Mandatory Spending : Forecast Mle Discretionary Spending I =—==<=Total Revenues . 6 ' 1 ' 4 { ' | 3 | ‘ 1 a 0 I 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Source: FRED
Slide 38: Fed Process
FED PROCESS Source: MFA Economic Update 38
Slide 39: 2024 Projections
2024 PROJECTIONS: • Interest rates • Business thoughts • Personal thoughts 39
Slide 40: Interest Rate Predictions
INTEREST RATE PREDICTIONS 40
Slide 41: Business Thoughts for 2024
Business Thoughts for 2024: • High interest rates for longer • Slowing Inflation • Slowing consumer • Business activity slowing • Slower job growth • Expensive labor & labor leverage • Global credit crunch risk • Two wars • Political • Taxes & debt payments 41
Slide 42: Personal Thoughts for 2024
Personal Thoughts for 2024: • Housing values flat to down 10% - unaffordable • Job openings declining (especially locally) • Stock market continues to struggle • Mortgage rates remain high • Home equity / Prime rate remain high • New & used car prices remain high • Great environment for disruption a
Slide 43: Thank You & Questions
THANK YOU & QUESTIONS Charley McQueen charley@m-f-a.com 248.548.8400 43