Ameren Corporation · NYSE:AEE
Ameren — Investor Presentation (July 2016)
24 slides from Ameren's investor presentation, Jul 12, 2016
Slide 1: Making an Impact: Toronto Investor Meetings
Making anImpact Toronto Investor Meetings July 12, 2016
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Forward-looking Statements Statements in this presentation not based on historical facts are considered "forward-looking" and, accordingly, involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed. Although such forward-looking s
Slide 3: Company Description
Company Description Fully rate-regulated electric and gas utility • 2.4 million electric and 0.9 million gas customers • 10,200 MW of regulated electric generation capability • 4,600 circuit miles of FERC-regulated electric transmission Ameren Corporation Ameren Missouri Ameren Illinois Electric Tra
Slide 4: Our Value Proposition to Investors
Our Value Proposition to Investors Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect ~6.5% compound annual rate base growth from 2015 through 20201 • Expect 5% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2016 through 20201 – Based on Feb. 2016 adjusted 2016 EPS guidance of $2.63, which was guidance mid- point of $
Slide 5: Solid Operating Performance
Solid Operating Performance # Delivery system reliability Generating plant Electric rates are low Safety has improved has improved performance remains strong Average Residential Electricity Prices1 Safety Performance 30 600 150 Lost Workday Recordable Cases 25 ¢/KWh BETTER 20 400 100 BETTER Cases 15
Slide 6: Our Strategic Plan
Our Strategic Plan • Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks • Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy policies • Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers and s
Slide 7: Our Regulatory Frameworks
Our Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated electric transmission service • Formula ratemaking; nearly eliminates regulatory lag – Allowed base ROE of 12.38% is being challenged; reserving for potential refund – Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation – C
Slide 8: Our Regulatory Frameworks, Cont’d
Our Regulatory Frameworks, Cont’d Missouri electric service • Historical test year ratemaking; results in regulatory lag – Allowed ROE is 9.53% – Fuel adjustment clause recovery mechanism; pension and other postretirement benefits cost tracking mechanism; constructive energy efficiency framework • C
Slide 9: Investing Strategically, Consistent with Regulatory Frameworks
Investing Strategically, Consistent with Regulatory Frameworks1 $11.1 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure 2015 to 2020E Regulated 5-Yr Rate Investment 2016-2020 Infrastructure Rate Base2 Base CAGR % of $16.7 Total ~6.5% Ameren $3.5 21% 20% Illinois % of Ameren Transmission $12.1 Total $2.0 B $2.0 12
Slide 10: FERC-Regulated Transmission Investment
FERC-Regulated Transmission Investment Planned $3.0 billion investment – 2016-20201 • $1.0 billion of regional multi-value projects at ATXI Regional • $2.0 billion of local reliability and connecting portions of regional Multi-Value Projects multi-value projects at Ameren Illinois Total Multi-Value
Slide 11: 2016-2020 Capital Expenditure Funding Plan
2016-2020 Capital Expenditure Funding Plan1 • Return of capital through depreciation in rates • Retained earnings • ~$2.5-$2.6 billion of income tax deferrals and assets – Income tax deferrals driven primarily by capital expenditures • ~$930 million due to extension of bonus tax depreciation – Inclu
Slide 12: Our Value Proposition to Investors
Our Value Proposition to Investors Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect ~6.5% compound annual rate base growth from 2015 through 20201 • Expect 5% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2016 through 20201 – Based on Feb. 2016 adjusted 2016 EPS guidance of $2.63, which was guidance mid- point of $
Slide 13: Financial and Regulatory Update
Financial and Regulatory Update
Slide 14: Earnings Summary
Earnings Summary Diluted EPS Key Earnings Variance Drivers: Q1 2015 vs. Q1 2016 Lower electric and natural gas sales volumes – Milder weather: ~$(0.10) vs. Q1 2015 and ~$(0.05) vs. normal – Net effect of reduced electric sales to Noranda: $(0.03) $0.45 Carryover effect of Missouri 2013-2015 ener
Slide 15: 2016 Earnings Guidance
2016 Earnings Guidance1 Select 2016 balance of year EPS considerations: 2016E Diluted EPS • Return to normal temperatures Q2-Q3 2016 ~flat; Q4 2016 ~+$0.08 $2.60 Q2-Q4 2016 compared to Q2-Q4 2015: $2.40 Increased electric transmission and delivery infrastructure investments by ATXI and Ameren Il
Slide 16: Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing
Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing • $206 million annual electric revenue increase request filed July 1, 2016 with MoPSC, which would result in an average 7.8% increase in base rates – ROE: 9.9% vs. 9.53% in April 2015 order – Equity ratio: 51.8% (Dec. 31, 2016 estimate) vs. same ratio
Slide 17: Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing, Cont’d
Pending 2016 Missouri Electric Rate Case Filing, Cont’d • Continuation of fuel adjustment clause – Continued 95%/5% sharing of variances from net energy costs • Cost tracking mechanisms – Continuation of pension and OPEB tracker – Continuation of uncertain income tax positions tracker – Implementati
Slide 18: Pending 2016 Illinois Electric Formula Rate Update
Pending 2016 Illinois Electric Formula Rate Update • Filed in April 2016 with ICC for required annual electric delivery service RATE UPDATE formula rate update SCHEDULE: – Requesting $14 million net annual revenue requirement decrease Sep. 13-14, 2016 • ICC Staff and intervenor July testimony suppor
Slide 19: Pending FERC MISO Complaint Cases
Pending FERC MISO Complaint Cases • Cases seek to reduce Ameren Illinois’ and ATXI’s transmission service allowed base ROE of 12.38% (retroactive to Nov. 2013 filing) – Schedule for first case (Nov. 2013 – Feb. 2015) • ALJ initial decision issued Dec. 22, 2015 recommended a 10.32% base ROE • FERC fi
Slide 20: Noranda’s Impact on Ameren Expected to be Temporary
Noranda’s Impact on Ameren Expected to be Temporary • Noranda Aluminum’s Background 2016 Expected – Ameren Missouri supplied electricity to Noranda’s aluminum smelter Diluted EPS – Was Ameren Missouri’s largest customer: ~4% of revenues and ~10% of MWh sales in 2015 Impact from – Noranda’s portion o
Slide 21: Appendix
Appendix
Slide 22: Select Regulatory Matters
Select Regulatory Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • 2016 electric rate case: Docket No. ER-2016-0179 • Order granting CCN for ATXI’s Mark Twain transmission project: Docket No. EA-2015-0146 • Working case to consider policies to improve electric utility regulation: Docket No. EW-2016-0313
Slide 23: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar JULY 2016 AUGUST 2016 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 Q2 Quiet Q2 Period, Earnings cont. Call 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 Toronto Barclays Q2 Quiet Investor Mini- Perio
Slide 24: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations ALJ - Administrative Law Judge. ICC - Illinois Commerce Commission. ATXI - Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois. MEEIA - Missouri Energy Efficiency Investment Act. B - Billion. MISO - Midcontinent Independent System Operator, Inc. CAGR - Compound annual growth