Public Service Company Of New Mexico · OTC:PNMXO
Public Service Company Of New Mexico — Technical Presentation (July 2022)
41 slides from Public Service Company Of New Mexico's technical presentation, Jul 6, 2022
Slide 1: PNM 2023-2042 IRP: Load Forecasting SOW Candidate Resource Pricing Methodology
PNM 2023-2042 IRP: Load Forecasting SOW Candidate Resource Pricing Methodology TECHNICAL SESSION #3 JULY 6, 2022
Slide 2: Disclosure Regarding Forward Looking Statements
DISCLOSURE REGARDING FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS The information provided in this presentation contains scenario planning assumptions to assist in the Integrated Resource Plan public process and should not be considered statements of the company’s actual plans. Any assumptions and projections contain
Slide 3: Meeting Ground Rules
MEETING GROUND RULES THE FOCUS OF THE MEETING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2023 IRP • Questions and comments are welcome – One Person Speaks at a Time 01 • Reminder; today’s presentation is not PNM’s plan or a financial forecast, it is an illustration of the IRP process 02 • When asking a question, ple
Slide 4: Technical Session
TECHNICAL SESSION THE FOCUS OF THE MEETING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE 2023 IRP The technical sessions are about discussing the advantages and disadvantages regarding the application of different technical methodologies within the IRP modeling framework. We are not here to focus on the results or driv
Slide 5: Meeting Agenda
MEETING AGENDA • Welcome and Introductions • Load Forecasting: • Load Forecasting Statement of Work/Fundamentals • Open forum for any stakeholder discussion or any changes on assumptions for the load forecasting fundamentals • Candidate Resource Pricing Methodology • Review • Feedback/Questions • Ne
Slide 6: 2020 IRP Load Forecast Comparison to Actuals: Demand
2020 IRP LOAD FORECAST COMPARISON TO ACTUALS Load Forecast Comparison - Demand 2,500 2,000 1,500 MW 1,000 Demand is 500 not weather normalized - 2020 IRP Actuals SL IDE 6 | J UL Y 6 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 7: 2020 IRP Load Forecast Comparison to Actuals: Energy
2020 IRP LOAD FORECAST COMPARISON TO ACTUALS Load Forecast Comparison - Energy (weather normalized) 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 MWh 600,000 400,000 200,000 - 2020 IRP Actuals SL IDE 7 | J UL Y 6 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 8: Comments from 2020 IRP: Questioned PNM's Long Term Load Forecasting
COMMENTS FROM 2020 IRP: QUESTIONED PNM’S LONG TERM LOAD FORECAST ING PNM’s 2020 IRP: Figure 40. Forecasts of annual energy demand (before EE reductions) Comments questioned: under different futures • Historical peak load and energy needs have shown a decline in past decade, but PNM forecast shows in
Slide 9: PNM 2022 IRP Energy and Demand Forecast Status
PNM 2022 IRP Energy and Demand Forecast Status Stuart McMenamin David Simons Itron, Inc. July 6, 2022
Slide 10: Agenda
Agenda » Economic Data and Forecasts » Weather Data and Normal Weather » Behind the Meter PV Data and Forecasts » Electric Vehicle Forecast » Other Scenario Inputs » Energy Modeling and Forecasts • Customer growth forecast • Statistically Adjusted End Use (SAE) Method • Use per customer models (ener
Slide 11: Economic Data and Forecasts
Economic Data and Forecasts
Slide 12: Economic Data and Forecast
Economic Data and Forecast » Forecast provided by Woods and Poole » Annual history from 1950 » Annual forecast to 2060 » State and County level data » Used data for PNM counties: • North: Bernalillo, San Miguel, Sandoval Santa Fe, Union, Valencia • South: Grant, Hidalgo, Luna, Otero » Annual data co
Slide 13: Comparison 2022 vs 2020
Comparison 2022 vs 2020 Population 2022 2020 Employment PNM Integrated Resource Plan Forecast Scenarios | 13
Slide 14: Weather Data and Normal Weather
Weather Data and Normal Weather
Slide 15: Weather Data and Normal Scenario
Weather Data and Normal Scenario » Hourly weather data from AccuWeather • Temperature – Used to compute Degree Days • Global horizontal irradiation (GHI) – Used for solar generation » 4 Stations • North: Albuquerque (KABQ), Santa Fe (KSAF) • South: Deming (KDMN), Alamogordo (KALM) » Station weights
Slide 16: Behind the Meter PV Data and Forecasts
Behind the Meter PV Data and Forecasts
Slide 17: BTM Solar Capacity and Generation Data
BTM Solar Capacity and Generation Data » Solar Capacity Data • Generation capacity data for new systems • Aggregated to monthly (Res & NonRes) • Forecasted through 2040, extended to 2050 » Solar Generation Data • All solar customers have generation output meters • Data are gathered monthly on a bill
Slide 18: Comparison 2022 vs 2020
Comparison 2022 vs 2020 » Non Res capacity forecast is about the same » Res capacity forecast in 2040 is over 1250 MW, which is about 1000 mW higher than the 2020 forecast 2022 2020 » Annual solar generation forecast in 2040 is about 1,900 GWh higher than the 2020 forecast. Residential NonRes PNM In
Slide 19: Electric Vehicle Forecast
Electric Vehicle Forecast ltrdn
Slide 20: Electric Vehicle Forecast
ELECTRIC VEHICLE FORECAST » Forecasts based on new car sales • Total New Mexico annual car sales are about 87,000 • US EV adoption ramps up from 2.3% to 20% by 2030, 35% by 2040 • NM adoption is about 41% of US adoption • 75% of NM adoptions are in PNM territory • EV annual energy use is about 4 MWh
Slide 21: Other Scenario Inputs
Other Scenario Inputs ltrdn
Slide 22: Other Factors
Other Factors » Provided by PNM Economic Development Group • Represents new industrial customers • Added about 360 GWh to 2020 forecast by 2026 • To Do – Get inputs for 2022 forecast 2040 Incremental Hourly Heating Load (MW) » Electrification • To Do – Update scenario inputs » Time of Use Rates • To
Slide 23: Energy Modeling and Forecasts
Energy Modeling and Forecasts
Slide 24: Energy Use and Energy Sales
Energy Use and Energy Sales » Monthly sales and monthly energy use: Net Sales • Sales = net delivery of energy through the customer meter + PV • Energy use = consumption of appliances and equipment = Energy • Energy use is bigger than net sales because of PV generation Use • Models explain energy us
Slide 25: Statistically Adjusted End-Use Framework
Statistically Adjusted End-Use Framework » Residential and commercial models use Statistically Adjusted End-Use (SAE) Model » SAE models account for: • Appliance and equipment efficiency • Thermal efficiency of buildings • Appliance saturation and equipment density » Efficiency and saturation data i
Slide 26: Compare 2022 Draft and 2020 Forecasts
COMPARE 2022 DRAFT AND 2020 FORECASTS Annual Customer Forecast » Customer forecast is about the same » 2022 Use forecast is lower to 2040 • No Econ Dev in 2022 forecast versus 350 GWh in 2020 forecast through 2026 2022 2020 » Use forecast gap closes by 2040 • Stronger EV forecast adds 200 GWh by 204
Slide 27: Hourly Load and Peak Demand Forecast
Hourly Load and Peak Demand Forecast
Slide 28: Hourly Load and Peak Load Forecasts
Hourly Load and Peak Load Forecasts » Hourly load models for each class Hourly Class Profile Forecasts Calendar Month Class Sales w/o • Estimated with hourly load research data for 2015 to 2019 With 2019 EV, PV + Inc EV or PV • Forecasted using normal daily weather pattern » Hourly shapes for EV and
Slide 29: Hourly Load on Peak Day
Hourly Load on Peak Day This Picture will change a lot because of new PV forecast » Bottom-up process depiction • Class loads are at the meter • Loss estimate includes System Peak 2080 MW • Loss factors by delivery voltage 18:00 to 19:00 • Company use • 3rd party transmission • FERC Wholesale delive
Slide 30: Forecast Scenarios
Forecast Scenarios ltrdn
Slide 31: 2020 Scenario Definitions
2020 Scenario Definitions PNM Integrated Resource Plan Forecast Scenarios | 31
Slide 32: Thank You
THANK YOU stuart.mcmenamin@itron.com david.simons@itron.com forecasting@itron.com www.itron.com
Slide 33: Comments from 2020 IRP: Candidate Resource Pricing
COMMENTS FROM 2020 IRP: CANDIDATE RESOURCE PRICING Cost assumptions for renewables are too high - Assumed costs for new wind, solar & battery resources are high above NREL’s costs - PNM lacks transparency in how it uses RFP bid costs to imply a capital cost - PNM lacks transparency in transmission c
Slide 34: Candidate Resource Pricing Methodology
CANDIDATE RESOURCE PRICING METHODOLOGY •Use publicly available resources and internal resources for technology cost • Wind For RFI responses – curves for overnight cost, ongoing cap • Battery Costs are provided by the Baseline ex, FOM & VOM •NREL: Annual Technology Baseline • Solar PV developer. Tra
Slide 35: 2023 IRP Public Advisory Process
2023 IRP PUBLIC ADVISORY PROCESS WE WOULD LIKE TO HEAR FROM YOU We did not receive any feedback to these questions posted during the last public meeting: 1. What did we do well in the last (2020) IRP and where can we improve? 2. Any additional ideas for technical discussions? 3. What is the proper w
Slide 36: Near Term Schedule
NEAR TERM SCHEDULE FUTURE MEETING TIME & LOCATION When: July 27, 2022 Topic: Public Advisory Technical Session #4: IRP Modeling Updates/Techniques & Preliminary RFI Responses* Start Time: 9:00 AM Location: Virtual *Subject to change, pending time constraints Due to many participants for the first tw
Slide 37: Near Term Schedule
NEAR TERM SCHEDULE FUTURE MEETING TIME & LOCATION When: August 3, 2022 Topic: Public Advisory Technical Session #5 (Modeling Assumptions: Transmission*) Start Time: 9:00 AM Location: Virtual *subject to change, may be switched with Public Advisory Group Day on Aug 17 Due to the vast majority of part
Slide 38: Long Term Schedule
LONG TERM SCHEDULE (THROUGH 2021) Date Meeting Title 4/28/2022 Steering Meeting #1 IRP Kick Off Meeting 5/25/2022 Steering Meeting #2 Reliability & Resiliency 6/8/2022 Technical Session # 1 Resource Adequacy Modeling 6/22/2022 Mini Steering/Technical #2 Modeling Energy Efficiency/Resiliency/Market D
Slide 39: Next Meeting
NEXT MEETING We encourage you to send in your thoughts ahead of time to IRP@pnm.com so that we can summarize them and distribute them for the next meeting. Please have your submissions in by July 20, 2022. SL IDE 3 9 | J UL Y 6 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 40: Make Sure We Have Up To Date Contact Information For You
MAKE SURE WE HAVE UP TO DATE CONTACT INFORMATION FOR YOU www.pnm.com/irp for documents IRP@pnm.com for e-mails Register your email on sign-in sheets to receive alerts of upcoming meetings and notices that we have posted to the website. SL IDE 4 0 | J UL Y 6 , 2 0 2 2
Slide 41: Thank you
Thank you pr aio OO@
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