Permanent TSB Group Holdings PLC · EURONEXT:PTSB

Permanent TSB — FY2006 Earnings Presentation

27 slides from Permanent TSB's earnings presentation, 2007

  1. Slide 1: House Price Index 2006 Review

    permanent tsb House Price Index 2006 Review

  2. Slide 2: Key findings

    2 House Price Index Key findings ‹ National house prices in 2006 grew by 11.8%, 2.5% up on growth rate of 9.3% in 2005. ‹ Price growth nationally in the 1st half of 2006 (8.0%) was at more than twice the rate as in the second six months (3.8%). ‹ Price growth in Dublin (15.9%) and Commuter Counties

  3. Slide 3: Agenda

    3 House Price Index Agenda ‹ National ‹ Regional ‹ New and Existing ‹ First-time Buyers and Second-time Buyers

  4. Slide 4: Year on Year House Price Growth 1997 - 2006

    4 House Price Index Year on Year House Price Growth 1997 - 2006 Growth in 2006 highest since 2003. N a tio n a l D u b lin O u ts id e D u b lin 2 0 0 6 1 1 .8 % 1 5 .9 % 1 0 .9 % 2 0 0 5 9 .3 % 1 0 .1 % 9 .2 % 2 0 0 4 8 .6 % 8 .9 % 8 .0 % 2 0 0 3 1 3 .8 % 1 2 .7 % 1 3 .0 % 2 0 0 2 1 3 .3 % 1 5 .9 %

  5. Slide 5: National House Prices

    5 House Price Index National House Prices Majority of growth concentrated in the 1st half of last year. 10.6% 11.0% 9.7% 8.0% 8.0% 7.3% 6.9% 6.7% 6.4% 5.5% 4.9% 4.7% 5.0% 3.7% 3.8% 2.5% 2.0% -0.4% -1.0% Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- Jun- Dec- 00 00 01 01 02 02 03 03 04

  6. Slide 6: 1996-2006 House Price Distribution

    6 House Price Index 1996-2006 House Price Distribution Changed significantly over the last 10 years 97% 100% 1996 2006 80% 60% 51% 40% 32% 15% 20% 2% 3% 0% 0% 0% < €150k €150-€250k €250-€400k €400k+

  7. Slide 7: Dublin, Outside Dublin & Commuter counties

    7 Dublin, Outside Dublin & Commuter counties House Price Index Close alignment of annual price growth rates broken with Dublin and Commuter Counties now in line while Outside Dublin prices finished last year growing 4.5%-5% less. 19% Outside Dub Dublin Commuter 14% 9% Dec '03 Dec '04 Dec '05 Dec '06

  8. Slide 8: National & Regional Price Trends - gap between Dublin and others continues to widen

    8 House Price Index National & Regional Price Trends - gap between Dublin and others continues to widen 450 427 400 Dublin 369 Commuter 335 344 350 National 307 299 300 273 311 Outside Dublin 271 256 278 266 250 223 234 254 240 200 206 220 204 150 180 92 100 82 Figures in €'000s December prices 80 7

  9. Slide 9: Regional House Prices - Growth since 1996

    9 House Price Index Regional House Prices - Growth since 1996 Dublin, Mideast, SW & Midland outstrip National growth. 390% 400% 375% 334% 350% 321% 325% 300% 306% 307% 300% 255% 275% 247% 240% 250% 225% 200% 175% t id l nd id r lin st N SE SW t na es de es ea ub la io w W or id at D B M M M

  10. Slide 10: Regional House Prices - Annual Growth

    10 House Price Index Regional House Prices - Annual Growth Most regions growing at or close to national levels 20% 16% 16% 15% 14% 14% 15% 13% 13% 12% 10% 10% 5% 0% t l nd lin r M st SE SW M st na es de ea e ub la io w W or id id id at D B M N

  11. Slide 11: County Average Price Trends

    11 House Price Index County Average Price Trends Grow th Grow th '04-'05 2005 € '05-'06 2006 € Dublin* 10% 368,576 16% 427,343 W icklow 11% 347,158 12% 388,827 Cork City 11% 306,117 14% 348,806 Kildare 6% 307,589 10% 337,757 Meath 10% 296,508 14% 336,959 Cork County 12% 284,355 12% 317,973 Galway 7%

  12. Slide 12: Top & Bottom Counties by 2006 growth rate

    12 House Price Index Top & Bottom 3 Counties by 2006 growth rate Growth Growth '04-'05 2005 € '05-'06 2006 € Leitrim 2% 199,827 29% 257,816 Wexford 13% 244,042 18% 289,128 Louth 14% 259,892 17% 303,533 Carlow 9% 237,685 7% 253,908 Kerry 15% 253,673 7% 270,492 Sligo 4% 241,217 6% 256,602

  13. Slide 13: Existing versus new houses

    13 House Price Index Existing versus new houses Annual % growth in new and existing house prices now moving in closer alignment. 20% New Existing 15% 10% 5% Dec '03 Dec '04 Dec '05 Dec '06 New 10.8% 12.4% 9.9% 9.6% Existing 14.4% 8.7% 8.2% 10.2% 0% Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Ju

  14. Slide 14: First versus second time buyers

    First versus second time buyers 14 House Price Index FTB growth rates were ahead of rates for STBs until the later half of last year, when they began to move more in line. 20% FTB STB 15% 10% 5% Dec '03 Dec '04 Dec '05 Dec '06 FTB 14.7% 7.9% 12.7% 11.8% STB 13.4% 9.0% 8.3% 12.2% 0% Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec

  15. Slide 15: Demand Outlook

    15 House Price Index Demand Outlook

  16. Slide 16: ECB Rate Movement

    16 House Price Index ECB Rate Movement 5.00% 4.75% 4.50% 4.00% 4.00% 3.50% 3.50% 3.25% 3.00% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007e

  17. Slide 17: Demographics

    17 House Price Index Demographics Source CSO Over 60 yrs 40-60 yrs 20-40 yrs < 20 yrs 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 2006 2002 1996

  18. Slide 18: Net Inward Migration forecasted to be 55,000 in 2007

    18 Net Inward Migration forecasted to be 55,000 House Price Index in 2007 Source ESRI 80 70 '000s 53 55 60 41 40 33 30 32 26 19 17 17 20 7 8 2 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -5 -9 -20 -8 -14 -20 -27 -23 -23 -40 -42 -44 -60 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20

  19. Slide 19: Economic growth (GNP) to out-perform EU average

    19 Economic growth (GNP) to out-perform House Price Index EU average Source ESRI 12 10 annual % change 8 6 4 2 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

  20. Slide 20: Employment growth to remain above long run average

    20 Employment growth to remain above House Price Index long run average Source ESRI 7 6 5 annual % change 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

  21. Slide 21: Unemployment rate continues to be lower than EU area average

    21 Unemployment rate continues to be House Price Index lower than EU area average Source ESRI 20 15 % 10 5 0 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006

  22. Slide 22: Earnings growth set to remain strong

    22 House Price Index Earnings growth set to remain strong Source ESRI 10 8 annual % change 6 4 2 0 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005

  23. Slide 23: Summary

    House Price Index Summary age permanent tsb

  24. Slide 24: Summary & Conclusions

    24 House Price Index Summary & Conclusions ‹ National house price growth in 2006 slightly higher than anticipated at 11.8%. ‹ Continued strong economic indicators, rising disposable income & high immigration levels. ‹ All internal variables positive, watchouts are higher than expected rate increases

  25. Slide 25: Appendices

    25 House Price Index Appendices

  26. Slide 26: House Completions

    26 House Price Index Housing completions continue to set new records Source: Department of the Environment (DOE) House Completions 100,000 93,419 90,000 80,957 76,954 80,000 68,819 70,000 57,695 60,000 49,812 52,602 50,000 42,349 46,512 38,842 40,000 33,700 30,000 96 97 98 99 00 01 03 02 04 20 5 e 0

  27. Slide 27: Regional Listing

    27 House Price Index REGIONAL LISTING ‹ BORDER - Cavan; Donegal; Leitrim; Louth; Monaghan; Sligo. ‹ MIDEAST - Kildare; Meath; Wicklow. ‹ MIDLANDS - Laois; Longford; Offaly; Westmeath. ‹ MIDWEST - Clare; Limerick; Tipperary North. ‹ SOUTH EAST - Carlow; Kilkenny; Wexford; Waterford; Tipperary South.

Permanent TSB Group Holdings — FY2006 Earnings Presentation on 6ix