Fidelity Europe Quality Income UCITS ETF EUR · XETR:FEUI
Fidelity Europe Quality Income UCITS ETF EUR — Fidelity International — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation
12 slides from Fidelity Europe Quality Income UCITS ETF EUR's earnings presentation, June 2024
Slide 1: Q3 Outlook 2024
- Q3 OUTLOOK 2024 RESEARCH POWERED INVESTMENT For investment professional use only and not for general public distribution
Slide 2: Four scenarios for developed markets in 2024
Four scenarios for developed markets in 2024 Scenario 1: 5%+ Soft landing 40% Stagflation Inflation 4% Scenario 2: 2 Inflation rate No landing 30% Scenario 3: 3 1 2% Cyclical recession 25% Recession Soft landing Reflation 4 Scenario 4: Balance sheet <0% recession 5% <-2% 0% <1% 3% 4%+ Growth (GDP pe
Slide 3: How the scenarios could play out
How the scenarios could play out Growth Inflation Monetary policy Fiscal policy SLIGHTLY BELOW-TREND BACK TO TARGET BACK TO NEUTRAL Scenario 1: SLOWDOWN Disinflation brings core inflation back to Central banks start cutting rates, going NEUTRAL STANCE Soft landing Growth in major economies settles a
Slide 4: The base case – why we're expecting a soft landing
The base case – why we’re expecting a soft landing Moderating inflation marks the end of the rate hiking cycle, providing a supportive environment for risk assets 10% 6% 5% 8% 4% 6% 3% 4% 2% 2% 1% 0% 0% Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 US CPI y/y (LHS) Fed Fund Rate (RH
Slide 5: US and Japanese earnings growth drove outperformance over the past 12 months
US and Japanese earnings growth drove outperformance over the past 12 months 12m forward EPS forecast 120 115 110 Rebased 105 100 95 90 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 US Japan Europe UK EM Source: Refinitiv Datastream, Fidelity International, June 2024 5
Slide 6: Dip in management sentiment last quarter
But nothing is guaranteed – our analysts noted a dip in management sentiment last quarter (even as sentiment in China has turned positive) 1.00 0.80 Weighted average of responses 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 May-23 May-24 May-20 May-21 May-22 Jul-22 Mar-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Mar-24 Apr-24 Apr-20
Slide 7: The costs picture is changing
And the costs picture is changing – analysts report further rises in non-labour costs at their companies while labour costs tick down again 1.20 1.00 0.80 Costs increasing 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Costs decreasing -0.20 -0.40 Jul-23 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jun-23 Jan-24 Jun-24 Jan-21 Jun-21 Jan-22 Fe
Slide 8: Points of divergence – US is still an outlier with high growth and inflation forecasts
Points of divergence – US is still an outlier with high growth and inflation forecasts These differences present tactical opportunities 2024 real GDP growth Bloomberg consensus forecast 2024 CPI inflation Bloomberg consensus forecast 3.0 5.2 3.5 2.5 5.0 3.0 2.0 4.8 2.5 %YoY %YoY %YoY 1.5 4.6 2.0 1.0
Slide 9: Three scenarios for China in 2024
Three scenarios for China in 2024 Growth Inflation Monetary policy Fiscal policy Scenario 1: The pace of recovery gradually gains Policymakers roll out proactive easing Controlled momentum as consumption continues to lead. Industrial activities rebound due CPI and PPI rebound softly on the back of a
Slide 10: China shifts focus to manufacturing as the property sector remains a drag
China shifts focus to manufacturing as the property sector remains a drag 50% 40% 30% 20% YoY change 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Manufacturing Real estate Infrastructure Total fixed-asset investment Source: China National Bureau of Statistics, iFinD, Fidel
Slide 11: Multi Asset: Our Best Ideas
Multi Asset: Our Best Ideas Tilting towards Structural Defence Carry Alternatives Value Themes Scenario 1: ++ AI/Semiconductors + Global Mid-Caps ++ EM LC bonds + Liquid Alts ++ Biotech/Healthcare Soft landing ++ Select EM equities (China, + Min Vol Equities ++ Hybrids + REITs ++ Climate Solutions G
Slide 12: Important Information
Important Information This document is for Investment Professionals only and should not be relied on by private investors. This document is provided for information purposes only and is intended only for the person or entity to which it is sent. It must not be reproduced or circulated to any other p
Fidelity International — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation on 6ix