Antero Resources Corporation · NYSE:AR
Antero Resources — Q3 2024 Earnings Presentation
18 slides from Antero Resources's earnings presentation, Oct 31, 2024
Slide 1: Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call Presentation
Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Call Presentation October 31st, 2024 Antero Resources (NYSE: AR)
Slide 2: Legal Disclaimer
Legal Disclaimer This presentation includes “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR’s control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activi
Slide 3: Drilling and Completion Efficiencies
Drilling and Completion Efficiencies Total Days per Well (13,000’ Lateral) Increased Completion Stages per Day… 13.9 12.1 Quarterly 12.4 10.7 Record 10.8 8.0 2022 2023 3Q 2024 2022 2023 3Q 2024 Significantly Reduces Cycle Time per Pad (1) 163 137 126 2022 2023 3Q 2024 Note: Percentage increase or de
Slide 4: Reduced Capital Budget
Reduced Capital Budget AR D&C Capex Guidance (1) ($MM) Operational Efficiencies via $909 Enhanced D&C Techniques Strong Well Performance $675 $650 Longer Laterals > 11% Y-O-Y Increase Efficient D&C Program 2 Rigs / 1.2 Completion Crews ~28% Y-O-Y Reduction in D&C Capital 2023A Initial Updated 2024 G
Slide 5: U.S. Propane Exports Remain Strong
U.S. Propane Exports Remain Strong U.S. Exports of Propane/Propylene, Quarterly Average (MMBbls/d) 1.72 1.62 1.35 1.18 2021 2022 2023 2024 Antero Resources (NYSE: AR) Source: EIA, S&P Global Commodity Insights 5
Slide 6: Antero Holds Northeast LPG Export Advantage
Antero Holds Northeast LPG Export Advantage AR’s export capacity is not impacted by near-term U.S. Gulf Coast capacity constraints U.S. Gulf Coast LPG Export Capacity vs. LPG Exports (MMBbls/d) 3,500 Existing Export Capacity Export Capacity Additions 3,000 Near-term capacity 2,500 constraints 2,000
Slide 7: Improving U.S. LPG Export Fundamentals
Improving U.S. LPG Export Fundamentals Tight LPG Export Capacity Results in Premium Export Differentials Propane Export Premium vs. Mont Belvieu (1) ($/Gallon) $0.30 $0.27 $0.25 $0.22 $0.20 $0.15 $0.10 $0.09 $0.09 $0.08 $0.05 $0.05 $0.00 2022 2023 1Q 24 2Q 24 3Q 24 Current Source: S&P Global Commodi
Slide 8: U.S. Power Burn
U.S. Power Burn YTD 2024 average power burn is 1.4 Bcf/d higher than the prior year period U.S. Natural Gas Demand From Power Burn (2013-YTD 2024) (Bcf/d) 40.0 35.0 30.0 37.6 25.0 36.2 33.1 30.9 31.7 31.0 29.0 26.4 27.1 20.0 25.5 22.7 15.0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD YTD (1) (1)
Slide 9: 2024 Natural Gas Storage vs. 5 Year Average
2024 Natural Gas Storage vs. to 5 Year Average Storage Surplus Above 5 year Shrinks over 500 Bcf Since March 15 4100 +167 Over 5-Yr 4100 3600 3600 +348 Over 5 Yr +344 Over 5 Yr 3100 3100 2600 2600 2100 +678 Over 5 2100 +678 Yr 5 Yr Max-Min Range Largest Oversupply March 15 Over 5-Yr Forecast 1600 16
Slide 10: Lowest Free Cash Flow Breakeven
Lowest Free Cash Flow Breakeven 2024E Unhedged FCF Natural Gas Price Breakeven (1) YTD 2024 Unhedged Free Cash Flow / (Outspend) (2) ($/Mcf Henry Hub) ($MM) Maintenance Capital Interest Expense Cash Costs + Basis - Liquids Uplift YTD 2024 NYMEX Henry Hub: $2.10/MMBtu ($83) ($124) ($133) $2.72 $2.76
Slide 11: Peer-Leading Capital Efficiency
Peer-Leading Capital Efficiency Capital Efficiency (2024E D&C Capital/ 2024E Production) $1.20 $1.13 $1.00 Peer Average: $0.88 $0.90 $0.80 $0.73 $0.75 $0.60 $0.52 $0.40 Flat Y-O-Y Peer Average: $0.20 Production ~(5%) Y-O-Y Production Decline $0.00 AR Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Note: Peers include C
Slide 12: Free Cash Flow Uplift ~$490 MM
Free Cash Flow Uplift AR D&C + Land Capital AR Free Cash Flow Improvement ($MM) ($MM) $1,100 $1,057 FCF neutral in 2024 despite sub-$2.25 $1,000 $148 natural gas prices Land Capex $900 $800 $740 ~$490 MM $700 $909 $90 D&C Capex $600 $650 $500 2023A 2024 Guidance Capital AR C3+ NGL Price Efficiency (
Slide 13: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 14: Guidance
Guidance 2024 Guidance Ranges Net Production (Bcfe/d) 3.375 – 3.425 Net Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d) 2.170 – 2.180 Net Liquids Production (Bbl/d) 199,000 – 207,000 Net Daily C3+ NGL Production (Bbl/d) 113,000 – 116,000 Net Daily Ethane Production (Bbl/d) 76,000 – 80,000 Net Daily Oil Production (B
Slide 15: Antero Resources Non-GAAP Measures
Antero Resources Non-GAAP Measures Adjusted EBITDAX: Adjusted EBITDAX as defined by the Company represents income or loss, including noncontrolling interests, before interest expense, interest income, unrealized gains or losses from commodity derivatives, but including net cash receipts or payments
Slide 16: Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation
Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Three Months Ended September 30, 2023 2024 Reconciliation of net income (loss) to Adjusted EBITDAX: Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Antero Resources Corporation $ 17,808 (20,444) Net income and comprehensive income at
Slide 17: Antero Resources Free Cash Flow Reconciliation
Antero Resources Free Cash Flow Reconciliation Nine Months Ended September 30, 2024 Net cash provided by operating activities 571,286 Less: Net cash used in investing activities (588,251) Less: Proceeds from sale of assets, net (7,484) Less: Distributions to non-controlling interests in Martica (58,
Slide 18: Antero Resources Total Debt to Net Debt Reconciliation
Antero Resources Total Debt to Net Debt Reconciliation December 31, September 30, 2023 2024 Credit Facility $ 417,200 526,700 8.375% senior notes due 2026 96,870 96,870 7.625% senior notes due 2029 407,115 407,115 5.375% senior notes due 2030 600,000 600,000 4.250% convertible senior notes due 2026