Ameren Corporation · NYSE:AEE
Ameren — Investor Presentation (March 2019)
30 slides from Ameren's investor presentation, Mar 18, 2019
Slide 1: Building a Brighter Energy Future
Building a Brighter Energy Future Australia Investor Meetings Mar. 18-19, 2019
Slide 2: Cautionary Statements
Cautionary Statements Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures In this presentation, Ameren has presented core earnings per share, which is a non-GAAP measure and may not be comparable to that of other companies. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP information is included in this presentation. Generally,
Slide 3: Ameren Corporation Representatives
Ameren Corporation Representatives Warner Baxter Megan McPhail Chairman, President Manager, Investor and Relations Chief Executive Officer Australia Investor Meetings | Mar. 18-19, 2019 3
Slide 4: Company Description
Company Description Ameren Businesses 2.4M Fully rate-regulated electric and natural gas utility electric Ameren Missouri customers • Electric transmission, distribution, and generation business Corporate Headquarters and a natural gas distribution business in Missouri regulated Electric Service Ter
Slide 5: Our Value Proposition to Investors and Customers
Our Value Proposition to Investors and Customers Strong long-term Attractive Attractive total growth outlook dividend return potential • Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from • Annualized equivalent dividend rate • Track record of delivering strong 2018-20231,2 of $1.90 per share provides results attractive
Slide 6: Our Strategic Plan
Our Strategic Plan • Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks • Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy and economic policies • Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our cu
Slide 7: Solid Operating Performance
Solid Operating Performance Delivery system reliability has Generating plan performance Electric rates are low Strong safety performance improved remains solid Outage Frequency Distribution System Baseload Energy Center Average Residential Lost ¢/KWh Recordable Safety Performance Workday (per custom
Slide 8: Achieved Greater Than 7% EPS CAGR From 2013-2018
Achieved Greater Than 7% EPS CAGR From 2013-2018 Invested strategically, consistent with regulatory frameworks • Ameren Transmission – Significant investment in local reliability and regional multi-value projects 2013-2018 • Ameren Illinois Natural Gas Regulated Infrastructure – Significant investme
Slide 9: Four Constructive Regulatory Frameworks
Four Constructive Regulatory Frameworks FERC-regulated: Formula ratemaking • Allowed ROE is 10.82%1, which includes the MISO participation adder of 50 basis points Ameren • Rates reset each Jan. 1 based on forward-looking calculation with annual reconciliation Transmission • Constructive rate treatm
Slide 10: Strong Rate Base Growth in All Regulatory Jurisdictions
Strong Rate Base Growth in All Regulatory Jurisdictions1 ~$13.3 Billion of Regulated Infrastructure Investment1 2018 to 2023E Regulated Five-Year Rate Infrastructure Rate Base1,3 Base CAGR 2019-2023 ($ billions) Ameren Illinois Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution Natural Gas $22.7 ~8% $2.5B $1.6B
Slide 11: Expect to Deliver 6% to 8% EPS CAGR From 2018-2023
Expect to Deliver 6% to 8% EPS CAGR From 2018-20231 • Expect 2019 EPS in a range of $3.15 to $3.35 – Midpoint represents nearly 7 percent EPS growth compared to 2018 2018 Normalized Core EPS2 vs. weather-normalized core EPS2 2019E and Five-Year EPS Growth • Expect 6% to 8% EPS CAGR from 2018-20231 2
Slide 12: Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan Filed With MoPSC
Ameren Missouri Smart Energy Plan Filed With MoPSC on Feb. 14 Investing in and operating our utilities in a manner consistent with existing regulatory frameworks • Five-year $6.3 billion investment plan1 with focus on modernizing energy grid and adding renewables – Automate the electric distribution
Slide 13: Executing Our Strategy – Ameren Missouri Wind Investment
Executing Our Strategy – Ameren Missouri Wind Investment Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers and shareholders • Pursuing ownership of at least 700 MWs of wind generation by 2020 with multiple developers to comply with Missouri’s RES – Entered in
Slide 14: Executing Our Strategy - Illinois Proposed Legislation
Executing Our Strategy - Illinois Proposed Legislation Enhancing regulatory frameworks and advocating for responsible energy and economic policies • House Bill 3152 passed Public Utilities Committee Mar. 12 (18 Yes/0 No); Senate Bill 2080 assigned to Energy and Public Utilities Committee • Key provi
Slide 15: Expected 2019-2023 Funding Plan
Expected 2019-2023 Funding Plan1 • Comfortable with capitalization levels at each legal entity – Expect capitalization levels over the five-year period to remain in-line with those at the end of 2018 • Cash from Operations – Return of capital through depreciation in rates – Return on equity-financed
Slide 16: Summary
Summary Expect to deliver strong earnings growth in 2019 with guidance in a range of $3.15 to $3.35 per diluted share1 Successfully executing our strategy; well positioned for future growth Strong long-term growth outlook • Expect 6% to 8% compound annual EPS growth from 2018 through 20231,2 • Expec
Slide 17: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 18: GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliation
GAAP to Core Earnings Reconciliation (in millions, except per share amounts) Year-Ended Dec. 31, 2017 2018 GAAP Earnings / Diluted EPS $523 $2.14 $815 $3.32 Charge for revaluation of deferred taxes resulting from increased Illinois 22 0.09 — — state income tax rate Less: Federal income tax benefit (
Slide 19: 2018 Earnings Analysis
2018 Earnings Analysis1 Key Earnings Variance Drivers ↑ Ameren Missouri earnings — Higher electric retail sales primarily due to warmer summer and colder winter temperatures: ~+$0.42 • Weather vs. prior year: ~+$0.38; vs. normal ~+$0.32 Core Diluted EPS2 — Higher electric rates effective Apr. 1, 201
Slide 20: 2019 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions
2019 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions1 Midpoint represents nearly 7% EPS growth vs. 2018 weather-normalized core EPS ↓ Return to normal weather: ~$(0.32) ↓ Callaway refueling and maintenance outage scheduled for spring 2019: ~$(0.09) ↓ Higher depreciation expense, net of PISA benefit:
Slide 21: 2019 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions
2019 Earnings Guidance: Key Drivers and Assumptions1 Midpoint represents nearly 7% EPS growth vs. 2018 weather-normalized core EPS ↑ Higher average estimated rate base: ~$3.22 billion compared to ~$2.92 billion in Ameren 2018 reflecting infrastructure investments • FERC decisions in MISO ROE complai
Slide 22: Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Transmission
Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Transmission Base Allowed ROE • First and second complaint cases to reduce MISO’s FERC base ROE – In Sept. 2016, FERC final order issued in first complaint case with base ROE of 10.32% and results in a total ROE of 10.82% including 50 basis point adder for MISO par
Slide 23: Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Illinois
Select Regulatory Matters – Ameren Illinois Ameren Illinois Electric Distribution • In Nov. 2018, ICC approved a $72 million net annual increase in formula rates effective Jan. 2019, consistent with Ameren Illinois’ request – All-in 2019 residential electric rates, for customers taking delivery and
Slide 24: Ameren Organizational Structure and External Debt Balances
Ameren Organizational Structure and External Debt Balances1 $ in millions as of Dec. 31, 2018 All Moody’s outlooks “Stable”; all S&P outlooks “Stable” Ameren Corporation (Baa1/BBB+) Sr. Unsecured (Baa1/BBB) - $700 Commercial Paper (P-2/A-2) - $470 Ameren Missouri Ameren Illinois ATXI (Baa1/BBB+) (A3
Slide 25: Missouri 20-year Integrated Resource Plan
Missouri 20-year Integrated Resource Plan1 • Transitioning generation to a cleaner, more diverse portfolio in a responsible fashion – Preferred plan includes addition of at least 700 MWs of wind generation by 2020, representing potential ~$1 billion wind investment – Preferred plan also includes add
Slide 26: Executing Our Strategy – Investing in the Energy Grid
Executing Our Strategy – Investing in the Energy Grid Creating and capitalizing on opportunities for investment for the benefit of our customers and shareholders • Expect energy grid will be increasingly more important and valuable to our customers, communities and shareholders 2018-2023E Regulated
Slide 27: Investor Relations Calendar
Investor Relations Calendar MARCH 2019 APRIL 2019 SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. SUN. MON. TUES. WED. THUR. FRI. SAT. 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 Wells Europe Europe / Europe Fargo Investor MUFG Investor Investor Meetings Conf. Meetings Meeting 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Morgan BAML Q1 2019 UBS Stanl
Slide 28: Select Regulatory Matters
Select Regulatory Matters Missouri Public Service Commission • Senate Bill 564: http://www.senate.mo.gov/18info/pdf-bill/perf/SB564.pdf • Order approving Renewable Choice Program agreement: Docket No. ET-2018-0063 • Order approving CCN for 400-MW wind facility and use of RESRAM: Docket No. EA-2018-0
Slide 29: Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations
Glossary of Terms and Abbreviations AFUDC – Allowance for funds used during construction MEEIA – Missouri Energy Efficiency Investment Act ALJ – Administrative Law Judge MISO – Midcontinent Independent System Operator, Inc. ATXI – Ameren Transmission Company of Illinois MoPSC – Missouri Public Servi
Slide 30: Warner L. Baxter
Warner L. Baxter Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Ameren Corporation • Warner Baxter is chairman, president and chief executive officer of Ameren Corporation. During his more than 20-year tenure at Ameren, Baxter has also served in a variety of leadership roles, including chief finan