Antero Resources Corporation · NYSE:AR
Antero Resources — Q2 2023 Earnings Presentation
19 slides from Antero Resources's earnings presentation, Jul 27, 2023
Slide 1: Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call Presentation
Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call Presentation July 27, 2023
Slide 2: Legal Disclaimer
Legal Disclaimer This presentation includes “forward-looking statements.” Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are not under AR’s control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this presentation regarding activi
Slide 3: Drilling and Completion Efficiencies
Drilling and Completion Efficiencies Increasing Completion Stages per Day… And Drill Out Feet per Day… 16.0 Stages Company 6,450 Feet 11.2 Record Company Record 4,250 March 2023 March 2023 5.8 2,795 2019 2020 2021 2022 2Q23 Daily 2019 2020 2021 2022 2Q23 Daily Record Record Significantly Reduces Cyc
Slide 4: Antero Wells Continue to Outperform Peers
Antero Wells Continue to Outperform Peers Antero leads its Appalachian peers in well productivity trends, and importantly, continues to increase its liquids productivity AR Cumulative Well Productivity vs. Peers (MMcfe/1,000’) 800 Operator Well Count Lateral Length (ft) Since +20% vs 2020 peer avg N
Slide 5: Increased Production Guidance and Lower Expected Maintenance Capital
Increased Production Guidance and Lower Expected Maintenance Capital Drilling and completion efficiencies combined with strong well performance translates to higher production and lower maintenance capital 2023 Production Guidance (MMcfe/d) Maintenance Capital ($MM) 3,375 $925 ~10% 3% reduction Incr
Slide 6: U.S. Exports of Propane Hit Record Highs in 2023
U.S. Exports of Propane Hit Record Highs in 2023 U.S. Exports of Propane/Propylene, Quarterly Average (MMBbl/d) (MMBbl/d) Weekly Record High Set on June 23, 2023 of 1.895 MMBbl/d 1.8 2020 2021 2022 2023 1.7 Western Economies 1.6 Reopening COVID ‘Normal’ & 1.5 Initial COVID China Lockdowns Onset 2023
Slide 7: China PDH Propane Demand Continues to Grow
China PDH Propane Demand Continues to Grow Absolute China PDH propane demand is expected to increase over 50% from 2022 to 2024, despite lower expected utilization rates (MBbl/d) Chinese PDH Propane Demand vs. China PDH Utilization 600 120% 2024 Absolute Propane Demand of Over 500 MBbl/d at 60% Util
Slide 8: Rig Counts Dropping in Key Liquids Basins
Rig Counts Dropping in Key Liquids Basins All major U.S. liquids-rich regions have experienced a drop in active rigs since the beginning of 2023 Total US (1) Bakken Down 8 Rigs Down 132 Rigs -20% Year-to-Date -15%31 Rockies SCOOP/STACK Down 7 Rigs Down 14 Rigs -20% -30% Appalachia Down 8 Rigs -16% P
Slide 9: Peer-Leading Exposure To Premium Markets
Peer-Leading Exposure To Premium Markets Antero Firm Transport + 2024E – 2027E Average Basis Differential Overview Local Basis (1) (‘24E-’27E) Antero Firm Transportation Chicago (‘24E-’27E) +$0.16 Chicago basis uplift driven by ($0.94) ($0.97) Canada LNG pull Chicago 12/31/22 Current Strip Current S
Slide 10: Haynesville Rig Count Has Declined as Expected
Haynesville Rig Count Has Declined as Expected Rig Reduction When Front Month Natural Gas Breaks $3.00/MMBtu Peak-to-Trough Rig Drop % Change 0 0% (20) (20%) (30) (26) (28) (40) (40%) (38%) (38) (44%) (60) (55%) (60%) (65%) (71%) (80) (71) (80%) Feb-23 Snapshot 01/31/12 02/28/15 02/28/19 07/24/23 Av
Slide 11: Haynesville Completion Crews Have Declined as Expected
Haynesville Completion Crews Have Declined as Expected As a result of the recent drop in natural gas prices, Haynesville completion crews have decreased by ~36% from 1Q 2023 Haynesville Completion Crews vs. NYMEX Henry Hub ($/MMBtu) Haynesville Frac Crews NYMEX HH $3.00 NYMEX ~36% reduction 30 28 $9
Slide 12: Power Burn Demand Growth
Power Burn Demand Growth Fundamental rise in power burn continues in 2023 with year to date power burn 14% above the five year average, or 3.28 Bcf/d, as coal retirements more than offset mild weather Natural Gas Power Burn (Bcf/d) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 51.1 47.0 Jus
Slide 13: Antero Capital Efficiency vs. Peers
Antero Capital Efficiency vs. Peers While targeting a maintenance capital program, Antero’s volumes grew 5% compared to the year ago period while the peer group declined by 4% Year-Over-Year Change in Production 5% growth driven by capital 5% efficiency gains and well productivity 0% -3% Peer Averag
Slide 14: Appendix
APPENDIX
Slide 15: Guidance
Guidance 2023 Guidance Ranges Net Production (Bcfe/d) 3.35 – 3.40 Net Natural Gas Production (Bcf/d) 2.20 – 2.23 Net Liquids Production (Bbl/d) 188,000 – 199,000 Natural Gas Realized Price Expected Premium to $0.00 to $0.10 NYMEX ($/Mcf) C2 Ethane Realized Price - Expected Premium to ($1.00) - $1.00
Slide 16: Antero Resources Non-GAAP Measures
Antero Resources Non-GAAP Measures Adjusted EBITDAX: Adjusted EBITDAX as defined by the Company represents income or loss, including noncontrolling interests, before interest expense, interest income, unrealized gains or losses from commodity derivatives, but including net cash receipts or payments
Slide 17: Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation
Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Three Months Ended June 30, 2022 2023 Reconciliation of net income (loss) to Adjusted EBITDAX: Net income (loss) and comprehensive income (loss) attributable to Antero Resources Corporation $ 765,135 (83,084) Net income and comprehensive income attrib
Slide 18: Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation
Antero Resources Adjusted EBITDAX Reconciliation Twelve Months Ended June 30, 2023 Reconciliation of net income to Adjusted EBITDAX: Net income and comprehensive income attributable to Antero Resources Corporation $ 1,420,402 Net income and comprehensive income attributable to noncontrolling interes
Slide 19: Antero Resources Total Debt to Net Debt Reconciliation
Antero Resources Total Debt to Net Debt Reconciliation December 31, June 30, 2022 2023 Credit Facility $ 34,800 359,900 8.375% senior notes due 2026 96,870 96,870 7.625% senior notes due 2029 407,115 407,115 5.375% senior notes due 2030 600,000 600,000 4.250% convertible senior notes due 2026 56,932